Causal chain event graphs for remedial maintenance
AbstractThe analysis of system reliability has often benefited from graphical tools such as fault trees and Bayesian networks. In this article, instead of conventional graphical tools, we apply a probabilistic graphical model called the chain event graph (CEG) to represent the failures and processes of deterioration of a system. The CEG is derived from an event tree and can flexibly represent the unfolding of asymmetric processes. For this application, we need to define a new class of formal intervention we call remedial to model the causal effects of remedial maintenance. This fixes the root causes of a failure and return...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xuewen Yu,
Jim Q. Smith Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Benchmark dose profiles for bivariate exposures
AbstractWhile benchmark dose (BMD) methodology is well-established for settings with a single exposure, these methods cannot easily handle multidimensional exposures with nonlinear effects. We propose a framework for BMD analysis to characterize the joint effect of a two-dimensional exposure on a continuous outcome using a generalized additive model while adjusting for potential confounders via propensity scores. This leads to a dose –response surface which can be summarized in two dimensions by a contour plot in which combinations of exposures leading to the same expected effect are identified. In our motivating study o...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 23, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tugba Akkaya Hocagil,
Louise M. Ryan,
Richard J. Cook,
Khue ‐Dung Dang,
R. Colin Carter,
Gale A. Richardson,
Nancy L. Day,
Claire D. Coles,
Heather Carmichael Olson,
Sandra W. Jacobson,
Joseph L. Jacobson Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 23, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
National assessments of money laundering risks: Stumbling at the start
AbstractThe Financial Action Task Force (FATF) requires national governments to demonstrate an understanding of the distribution of money laundering risks across different sectors of the financial system. Such understanding is the foundation for effective control of money laundering under the risk-based approach called for by the FATF. We analyzed the National Risk Assessments (NRAs) of eight systemically important countries before 2020 to test whether these demonstrated that basic understanding. The eight show very different conceptualizations, analytic approaches, and products. None showed more than minimal competence at...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 19, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joras Ferwerda,
Peter Reuter Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Probabilistic risk assessment of residential exposure to electric arc furnace steel slag using Bayesian model of relative bioavailability and PBPK modeling of manganese
AbstractElectric arc furnace (EAF) slag is a coproduct of steel production used primarily for construction purposes. Some applications of EAF slag result in residential exposures by incidental ingestion and inhalation of airborne dust. To evaluate potential health risks, an EAF slag characterization program was conducted to measure concentrations of metals and leaching potential (including oral bioaccessibility) in 38 EAF slag samples. Arsenic, hexavalent chromium, iron, vanadium, and manganese (Mn) were identified as constituents of interest (COIs). Using a probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) approach, estimated distribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 16, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Liz Mittal,
Camarie S. Perry,
Alexander D. Blanchette,
Deborah M. Proctor Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Optimal risk management considering environmental and climatic changes
This article addresses gaps in existing studies by using a Markov-switching model to consider climate risk. Backward stochastic differential equations are used to optimize utility with three hedging strategies based on the concept of risk aversion. Numerical scenarios confirm the model's superiority in incorporating exogenous events, with our risk-averse strategy outperforming classical approaches. Our strategy outperforms classical strategies b y taking a flexible risk trading when investors face risk-averse behavior due to climate risk events. The findings presented in this article have important implications for the d...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 16, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ramzi Benkraiem,
Youssef El ‐Khatib,
Jun Fan,
Stéphane Goutte,
Tony Klein Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Identification of key potential risk areas and key potential failure modes in hemodialysis rooms by the FMEA method following routine prevention and control of the COVID ‐19 pandemic
This study aimed to identify the key potential risk areas and failure modes in hemodialysis rooms in hospitals and put forward a series of improvement measures to prevent and control the spread of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Hemodialysis patients are highly susceptible to COVID-19 and usually have a high incidence of severe illness and mortality after infection with COVID-19. Therefore, IPC in hemodialysis patients is of crucial strategic significance. Based on 30 domain experts ’ interviews and careful analysis of prevention and control documents, we constructed a comprehensive failure system for a model th...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 15, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yingying Ruan,
Qijun Hong,
Lili Feng,
Ching ‐Wen Chien,
Kai Sun,
Yen‐Ching Chuang,
Fuqin Tang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Impact assessment of mandatory safety device installation for gas stoves
AbstractNumerous fire accidents have occurred in Japan owing to food overheating when cooking on gas stoves because users left the cooking area unattended. In response, authorities enacted a legal revision mandating temperature sensor installation on gas stove burners. Nevertheless, the actual effectiveness of this measure remains uncertain. Furthermore, prior studies have raised concerns about the efficacy of specific safety standards for consumer products owing to insufficient evidence of reduction in accidents. Consequently, this study seeks to assess the impact of the standards revision implemented in 2008, requiring t...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 15, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shunsuke Saito,
Hironobu Kawamura Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Trends in Salmonella Infantis human illness incidence and chicken carcass prevalence in the United States; 1996 –2019
AbstractThe incidence of human illness due toSalmonella Infantis reported to Foodborne Diseases Active Surveillance Network and the prevalence of Infantis on chicken carcasses reported by the United States Department of Agriculture Food Safety and Inspection Service have increased significantly in the past decade. However, the trends do not appear coincident, as would be expected if the increased prevalence in chicken led to the increase in the incidence of human illness.Salmonella Infantis incidence and prevalence trends are analyzed using penalized B-spline methods for generalized additive regression models. The associat...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 15, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mark R. Powell,
Michael S. Williams Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Interdependent network restoration games with incomplete information and bounded rationality
AbstractCommunities face the challenge of finding restoration strategies in the aftermath of disasters. In particular, independent and self-interested utility managers devise such strategies for infrastructure through a heuristic decentralized process. This paper takes a game-theoretic approach to model the decentralized and strategic restoration decision making with application to interdependent infrastructure. Particularly, we model the decision process using simultaneous games to investigate decision makers' conflicting preferences. We employ Bayesian games to incorporate the realistic assumptions of poor interagent com...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hesam Talebiyan,
Leonardo Duenas ‐Osorio Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Artificial intelligence for risk analysis —A risk characterization perspective on advances, opportunities, and limitations
AbstractArtificial intelligence (AI) has seen numerous applications for risk analysis and provides ample opportunities for developing new and improved methods and models for this purpose. In the present article, we conceptualize the use of AI for risk analysis by framing it as an input –algorithm–output process and linking such a setup to three tasks in establishing a risk description: consequence characterization, uncertainty characterization, and knowledge management. We then give an overview of currently used concepts and methods for AI-based risk analysis and outline poten tial future uses by extrapolating beyond c...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 11, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kaia St ødle,
Roger Flage,
Seth Guikema,
Terje Aven Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
The synergy effect of multi ‐country policy actions announced in reaction to global risk: A network structure perspective
AbstractThe policy actions of countries reflect adaptive responses of local components within the system to the dynamic global risk landscape. These responses can generate interactions and synergy effects on alleviating the evolution of global risks. Adopting a network perspective, the study proposes a theoretical framework that connects three structural characteristics of policy synergy, namely, synergy scale, alignment intensity, and timing synchronization. Focusing on the Covid-19 pandemic as a typical global risk context, the study finds that policy synergy with a larger scale, stronger alignment intensity, and more sy...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 9, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jiuchang Wei,
Junkai Ji,
Yi ‐Na Li Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Lessons identified from applications of the Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0
AbstractThe Risk Analysis Quality Test Release 1.0 (RAQT1.0) was developed as a framework to encourage mutual understanding between technical risk analysts and risk management decision makers of risk assessment quality indicators. The initial version (release 1.0) was published by the Society for Risk Analysis (SRA) in 2020 with the intent of learning from early test applications whether the approach was useful and whether changes in approach or contents would be helpful. The results of applications across three diverse fields are reported here. The applications include both retrospective evaluations of past risk assessmen...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert Waller,
Margaret Coleman,
Samuel Denard,
Emma Soane Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
The determinants of legislation for radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF ‐EMFs) with the onset of 5G: An empirical analysis with a worldwide cross‐sectional dataset
This article is the first empirical analysis on the determinants of RF-EMF exposure legislation, using a novel cross-sectional database of 164 countries worldwide. The analysis shows that decentralization and mobile competition in countries with low mobile network deployment tend to promote more stringent RF-EMF exposure limits across the dataset with 164 countries. In more decentralized countries, the regions had a greater influence on national legislation and could accommodate local demands with the advent of mobile technology in the 2000s. In contrast, decentralization and mobile competition in countries with high level...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Laura Recuero Virto,
Marek Czerwi ński,
Jérémy Froidevaux Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
