Estimating the Potential Health Benefits of Air Quality Warnings
AbstractNational, state, and local air quality authorities issue warnings urging residents to stay indoors or to take other precautions when pollutant levels are expected to exceed defined thresholds. Previous work explores the impact of warnings on specific activities but not the health improvements that might result if individuals fully responded to the recommendations. We estimate these potential health impacts using recent pollution data in three U.S. locations: Denver, Colorado; Los Angeles, California; and Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We focus on mortality risks among the elderly, who are particularly vulnerable. Under ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 13, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonathan J. Buonocore, Lisa A. Robinson, James K. Hammitt, Lucy O'Keeffe Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Evolving Science and Practice of Risk Assessment
AbstractManaging public health risks from environmental contaminants has historically relied on a risk assessment process defined by the regulatory context in which these risks are assessed. Risk assessment guidance follows a straightforward, chemical ‐by‐chemical approach to inform regulatory decisions around the question “what is the risk‐based concentration protective of human and ecological health outcomes?” Here we briefly summarize regulatory risk assessment in the context of innovative risk assessment approaches based on an evolv ing understanding of the underlying scientific disciplines that suppo...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katherine Stackelberg, Pamela R.D. Williams Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Introduction to Special Issue on Risk Assessment, Economic Evaluation, and Decisions
AbstractIntegrating risk assessment, economic evaluation, and uncertainty to inform policy decisions is a core challenge to risk analysis. In September 2019, the Harvard Center for Risk Analysis, with support from the Society for Risk Analysis Economics and Benefits Analysis Specialty Group and others, convened a workshop to address this issue. The workshop built in part on the recommendations of the 2009 National Research Council report,Science and Decisions: Advancing Risk Assessment. It honored John S. Evans, whose thoughtful and innovative teaching and scholarship have significantly advanced thinking on these issues. T...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James K. Hammitt, Lisa A. Robinson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Recent Advances in Probabilistic Dose –Response Assessment to Inform Risk‐Based Decision Making
AbstractParadoxically, risk assessments for the majority of chemicals lack any quantitative characterization as to the likelihood, incidence, or severity of the risks involved. The relatively few cases where “risk” is truly quantified are based on either epidemiologic data or extrapolation of experimental animal cancer bioassay data. The paucity of chemicals and health endpoints for which such data are available severely limits the ability of decisionmakers to account for the impacts of chemical exp osures on human health. The development by the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safe...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Weihsueh A. Chiu, Greg M. Paoli Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

High Throughput Risk and Impact Screening of Chemicals in Consumer Products
AbstractThe ubiquitous presence of more than 80,000 chemicals in thousands of consumer products used on a daily basis stresses the need for screening a broader set of chemicals than the traditional well ‐studied suspect chemicals. This high‐throughput screening combines stochastic chemical‐product usage with mass balance‐based exposure models and toxicity data to prioritize risks associated with household products. We first characterize product usage using the stochastic SHEDS‐HT model an d chemical content in common household products from the CPDat database, the chemical amounts applied daily varying over more ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Olivier Jolliet, Lei Huang, Ping Hou, Peter Fantke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Action Levels for SARS ‐CoV‐2 in Air: Preliminary Approach
AbstractQuantitative microbial risk assessment has been used to develop criteria for exposure to many microorganisms. In this article, the dose –response curve for Coronavirus 229E is used to develop preliminary risk‐based exposure criteria for SARS‐CoV‐2 via the respiratory portals of entry. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Charles N. Haas Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

How do People Judge Risk? Availability may Upstage Affect in the Construction of Risk Judgments
We present an experiment (N = 143) where we varied availability ‐by‐recall (thinking of less or more occurrences of someone from one's social network dying) and the affective impact of certain risks (using images). We found that availability‐by‐recall had a stronger impact in constructing risk judgments. Asking people to think of more occurrences led to higher judgments of mortality and higher values placed on a single life, irrespective of changes in affect, risk media coverage, and retrieval time. Affect, however, was not disregarded. Our data suggest a causal mechanism where the retrieval of occurrences leads to...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 24, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emir Efendi ć Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

New Methods for Evaluating Energy Infrastructure Development Risks
AbstractMany energy technologies that can provide reliable, low ‐carbon electricity generation are confined to nations that have access to robust technical and economic capabilities, either on their own or through geopolitical alliances. Equally important, these nations maintain a degree of institutional capacity that could lower the risks associated with depl oying emergent energy technologies such as advanced nuclear or carbon capture and storage. The complexity, expense, and scrutiny that come with building these facilities make them infeasible choices for most nations. This paradigm is slowly changing, as the pressin...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael J. Ford, Ahmed Abdulla Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Multihazards Scenario Generator: A Network ‐Based Simulation of Natural Disasters
This article demonstrates a framework for using graph theory and networks to generate and model the complex impacts of multihazard scenarios. First, the combination of maximal hazard footprints and exposed nodes (e.g.,  infrastructure) is used to create the hazard network. Iterative simulation of the network, defined by actual hazard magnitudes, is then used to provide the overall compounded impact from a sequence of hazards. Outputs of the method are used to study distributional ranges of multihazards impact. Th e 2016 Kaikōura earthquake is used as a calibrating event to demonstrate that the method can reproduce th...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alexandre Dunant, Mark Bebbington, Tim Davies, Pascal Horton Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Analyzing the Risk to COVID ‐19 Infection using Remote Sensing and GIS
AbstractGlobally, the COVID ‐19 pandemic has become a threat to humans and to the socioeconomic systems they have developed since the industrial revolution. Hence, governments and stakeholders call for strategies to help restore normalcy while dealing with this pandemic effectively. Since till now, the disease is yet to have a cure; therefore, only risk‐based decision making can help governments achieve a sustainable solution in the long term. To help the decisionmakers explore viable actions, we propose a risk‐based assessment framework for analyzing COVID‐19 risk to areas, using integrated hazard and vulnerabil i...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shruti Kanga, Gowhar Meraj, Sudhanshu, Majid Farooq, M. S. Nathawat, Suraj Kumar Singh Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Lies, Damned Lies, and Social Media Following Extreme Events
In this study, social media posts are conceptualized as truth signals with varying strengths, either above or below each individual's threshold for believing the post is true. Optimally, thresholds should be contingent on the (incentivized) error pena lties and base‐rate of true posts, both of which were manipulated. Separate receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses indicate that participants performed slightly better than chance for natural disasters and moderately better than chance for terror attacks. While the pooled thresholds are ordinally consistent with the base‐rate and error penalty manipulations, the...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katie Byrd, Richard S. John Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of the Impact of Skewness, Clustering, and Probe Sampling Plan on Aflatoxin Detection in Corn
AbstractProbe sampling plans for aflatoxin in corn attempt to reliably estimate concentrations in bulk corn given complications like skewed contamination distribution and hotspots. To evaluate and improve sampling plans, three sampling strategies (simple random sampling, stratified random sampling, systematic sampling with U.S. GIPSA sampling schemes), three numbers of probes (5, 10, 100, the last a proxy for autosampling), four clustering levels (1, 10, 100, 1,000 kernels/cluster source), and six aflatoxin concentrations (5, 10, 20, 40, 80, 100 ppb) were assessed by Monte ‐Carlo simulation. Aflatoxin distribution was ap...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xianbin Cheng, Matthew J. Stasiewicz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Regional Scale Risk to the Ecological Sustainability and Ecosystem Services of an African Floodplain System
In this study, we carried out a regional scale ecological risk assessment to evaluate the risk of multiple stressors associated with the use of the aquatic resources in the floodplain to selected social and ecological endpoints representing its sustainability. The floodplain has undergone significant changes as a result of the impacts of multiple stressors. This includes high risk of impact and threatened sustainability between the Pongolapoort Dam and the Ndumo Game Reserve (NGR). This compares to relatively low risk to the maintenance of the endpoints within the NGR. The reserve provides a protection and refuge function ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 12, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gordon O'Brien, Nico J Smit, Victor Wepener Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Exploiting the Capabilities of Bayesian Networks for Engineering Risk Assessment: Causal Reasoning through Interventions
AbstractIn the last decade, Bayesian networks (BNs) have been widely used in engineering risk assessment due to the benefits that they provide over other methods. Among these, the most significant is the ability to model systems, causal factors, and their dependencies in a probabilistic manner. This capability has enabled the community to do causal reasoning throughassociations, which answers questions such as: “How does new evidence x′ about the occurrence of event X change my belief about the occurrence of event Y?” Associative reasoning has helped risk analysts to identify relevant risk‐contributing ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 9, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andres Ruiz ‐Tagle, Enrique Lopez Droguett, Katrina M. Groth Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Organizational Risk: “Muddling Through” 40 Years of Research
AbstractThe recognition that organizations are a part of adverse outcomes has become commonplace in risk research. Social organization is a key theme in relation to risk minimization through institutional control and monitoring, and in how organizations are connected to society's perceptions of risk (beyond outcomes). The article reviews progress made in research on organizational risk over the last four decades and the contributions made to the field by fieldwork and descriptive approaches, understanding risk as partly determined by organizational context. A key issue for risk analysis is to figure out what these insights...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 9, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenneth Pettersen Gould Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Prologue: The “Brave New World” of Social Sciences in Interdisciplinary Risk Research
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn, Robert Goble, Guest Special Issue Editors Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research
AbstractCultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations —hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist—produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky'sRisk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior. We explain what CT is and how it developed; describe and evaluate its contribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson, Brendon Swedlow Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Pragmatic and (or) Constitutive? On the Foundations of Contemporary Risk Communication Research
AbstractA diffuse and interdisciplinary field, risk communication research, is founded on how we understand the process and purpose of communication more generally. To that end, this article outlines two fundamental functions of risk communication: (1) a pragmatic function, in which senders direct messages at audiences (and vice versa), with various intended (and sometimes unintended) effects; and (2) a constitutive function, in which messages re(create) what we mean by “risk” in a given social context, including how we can, and/or should relate to it. Although representing distinct epistemological and theoreti...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Laura N. Rickard Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management
AbstractThe formal mathematical structure for decision making under uncertainty was first expressed in Savage's axioms over 60 years ago. But while the underlyingnormative concepts for decision making under uncertainty remain constant, thepractice of applying these concepts in real ‐world settings, as conducted by decision analysis (DA) specialists working with agencies and interested parties, has seen a major transformation in recent decades. The purpose of this article is to provide perspectives that characterize and interpret how DA practice for societal risk management q uestions has grown and is being transformed ov...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Timothy McDaniels Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Through a Glass Darkly: How Natural Science and Technical Communities Looked at Social Science Advances in Understanding Risk
This article is one piece in a series of articles that reflect on advances in ideas about risk made by social science over the past 40 years and more. It differs from the other articles: its focus is not on specific advances themselves, but rather on how those advances were received and were encouraged or discouraged by the natural science and technical members of the risk community. Thus, the principal goal of this article is to provide some context for the other articlers in this series. Those articles describe work and intellectual developments that consider human responses to particular sorts of issues, concerns, and n...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rob Goble Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Toward a Commonly Shared Public Policy Perspective for Analyzing Risk Coping Strategies
AbstractThe concept of risk has received scholarly attention from a variety of angles in the social, technical, and natural sciences. However, public policy scholars have not yet generated a comprehensive overview, shared understanding and conceptual framework of the main problem ‐solving approaches applied by governments in coping with risks. In this regard, our main aim is to examine existing perspectives on prevailing risk coping strategies, find a common denominator among them and contribute to current policy and risk science literature through providing a conceptual f ramework that systematically spans the spectrum ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanwei Li, Araz Taeihagh, Martin Jong, Andreas Klinke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Critical Theory of World Risk Society: A Retrospective Analysis
AbstractIn terms of the evolution of sociological theory, it is difficult to overstate the impact ofRisk Society: Towards a New Modernity. Aside from achieving voluminous sales and mass citations, the book is one of few academic monographs that can lay claim to transforming the ways in which people understand the world and their own experiences within it. The major hypothesis of author Ulrich Beck is that a fundamental shift has occurred in capitalist economies from a focus on the material production of goods to avoidance of “bads.” Crucially, while social science thinkers had previously sought to understand th...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gabe Mythen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Trust and Risk Perception: A Critical Review of the Literature
AbstractMany studies in the field of risk perception and acceptance of hazards include trust as an explanatory variable. Despite this, the importance of trust has often been questioned. The relevant issue is not only whether trust is crucial but also the form of trust that people rely on in a given situation. In this review, I discuss various trust models and the relationship between trust and affect heuristics. I conclude that the importance of trust varies by hazard and respondent group. Most of the studies use surveys that provide limited information about causality. Future research should focus more on experiments that...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Four Decades of Public Participation in Risk Decision Making
AbstractOver the past four decades, the promise of public participation to improve decisions, obtain legitimacy, and build capacity for risk decision making and management has had a mixed record. In this article, we offer a narrative of how public participation has evolved in the United States and we examine prospects for its future. We trace three forces that have had significant impact on practice: an emergent emphasis on democratic deliberation, a transition from dichotomous thinking about science versus politics to an integrated perspective, and the recognition that different parties to the decision ‐making process b...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Webler, Seth Tuler Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Coming of Age of Risk Governance
AbstractProposed as an advanced conceptualization of how to handle risk, risk governance begins with the critique and expansion of the traditional idea and standard practices of risk analysis. In developments over the last two decades, proponents of a more integrative approach on governing risks have moved further away from distinct conceptions of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and toward the processes and institutions that guide, restrain, and integrate collective activities of handling risk. In early formulations of what risk governance entails, the superiority of the interplay between risk eval...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

The Economic Effects of Volcanic Alerts —A Case Study of High‐Threat U.S. Volcanoes
AbstractA common concern about volcanic unrest is that the communication of information about increasing volcanic alert levels (VALs) to the public could cause serious social and economic impacts even if an eruption does not occur. To test this statement, this study examined housing prices and business patterns from 1974 –2016 in volcanic regions with “very‐high” threat designations from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS)—Long Valley Caldera (LVC), CA (caldera); Mount St. Helens (MSH), Washington (stratovolcano); and Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi (shield volcano). To compare economic trends in nonvolcanic reg...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 5, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Justin B. Peers, Christopher E. Gregg, Michael K. Lindell, Denis Pelletier, Franco Romerio, Andrew T. Joyner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

But They Told Us It Was Safe! Carbon Dioxide Removal, Fracking, and Ripple Effects in Risk Perceptions
AbstractReaching net ‐zero for global greenhouse gas emissions by the year 2050 will require a portfolio of new technologies and approaches, potentially requiring direct removal and sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide using negative emissions technologies (NETs). Since energy and climate systems are fundamenta lly interconnected it is important that we understand the impacts of policy decisions and their associated controversies in other related technologies and sectors. Using a secondary analysis of data from a series of deliberative workshops conducted with lay publics in the United Kingdom, we suggest that per...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 3, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emily Cox, Nick Pidgeon, Elspeth Spence Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Uncertainty Quantification with Experts: Present Status and Research Needs
AbstractExpert elicitation is deployed when data are absent or uninformative and critical decisions must be made. In designing an expert elicitation, most practitioners seek to achieve best practice while balancing practical constraints. The choices made influence the required time and effort investment, the quality of the elicited data, experts ’ engagement, the defensibility of results, and the acceptability of resulting decisions. This piece outlines some of the common choices practitioners encounter when designing and conducting an elicitation. We discuss the evidence supporting these decisions and identify resea...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anca M. Hanea, Victoria Hemming, Gabriela F. Nane Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Exploring Scientists ’ Values by Analyzing How They Frame Nature and Uncertainty
This study explores the link between the scientists ’ positions in the debate and the way they, in their scientific publications, portray nature and environmental risks. We performed a qualitative content analysis of peer‐reviewed publications by scientists who have publicly taken opposing positions in the controversy. We found that scientists ag ainst treatment predominantly frame nature as tolerant, up to a limit, to disturbances and potential risks, and they seem to embrace a view of science as capable of reducing uncertainties. In contrast, scientists in favor of treatment predominantly portray nature as fragil...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marco Vazquez, Bronwyn McIlroy ‐Young, Daniel Steel, Amanda Giang, Gunilla Öberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Systemic Cyber Risk and Aggregate Impacts
We present an interdisciplinary approach for extending standard sector‐level input–output analyses to the cyber domain, which has not been done. We estimate the aggregate losses associated with firm‐level incidents, a contribution to risk analysis and computational economic modeling. We use this model to estimate the impact of potential cyber incidents and compare model results to a case with k nown damages. Finally, we use the model of systemic cyber failure to consider the implications on the growing cyber insurance market and the need for broader cyber policy. While we discuss the topic of systemic cyber risk,...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 17, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonathan W. Welburn, Aaron M. Strong Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Prologue: The “Brave New World” of Social Sciences in Interdisciplinary Risk Research
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn, Robert Goble Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Letter to the Editor
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Konstantin Chumakov, Dean T. Jamison, Peter Aaby, Christine S. Benn, Robert C. Gallo Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing Poliovirus Risks: We are Where we are …
AbstractThis introduction for the third special issue on modeling poliovirus risks provides context for the current status of global polio eradication efforts and gives an overview of the individual papers included in the issue. Although risk analysis continues to support the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), efforts to finish the job remained off track at the beginning of 2020 and prior to the COVID ‐19 pandemic, as discussed in the special issue. The disruptions associated with COVID‐19 occurring now will inevitably change the polio eradication trajectory, and future studies will need to characterize the im...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

An Updated Economic Analysis of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative
AbstractDespite a strong global commitment, polio eradication efforts continue now more than 30 years after the 1988 World Health Assembly resolution that established the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI), and 20 years after the original target of the year 2000. Prior health economic analyses estimated incremental net benefits of the GPEI of 40 –50 billion in 2008 U.S. dollars (US$2008, equivalent to 48–59 billion US$2019), assuming the achievement of polio eradication by 2012. Given the delays in achieving polio eradication and increased costs, we performed an updated economic analysis of the GPEI usi...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson, Dominika A. Kalkowska Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Health and Economic Outcomes Associated with Polio Vaccine Policy Options: 2019 –2029
AbstractThe polio endgame remains complicated, with many questions about future polio vaccines and national immunization policies. We simulated possible future poliovirus vaccine routine immunization policies for countries stratified by World Bank Income Levels and estimated the expected costs and cases using an updated integrated dynamic poliovirus transmission, stochastic risk, and economic model. We consider two reference cases scenarios: one that achieves the eradication of all wild polioviruses (WPVs) by 2023 and one in which serotype 1 WPV (WPV1) transmission continues. The results show that the addition of inactivat...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

No Role for Reintroducing OPV into the United States with Respect to Controlling COVID ‐19 [Response to the letter to the Editor by Chumakov et al.]
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson, Dominika A. Kalkowska, Kamran Badizadegan Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

The Benefits and Costs of Cybersecurity Risk Reduction: A Dynamic Extension of the Gordon and Loeb Model
This article develops a dynamic extension of the classic model of cybersecurity investment formulated by Gordon and Loeb. In this dynamic model, results are influenced by the rate at which cybersecurity assets depreciate and the rate of return on investment. Depreciation costs are lower in the dynamic model than is implicitly assumed in the classic model, while the rate ‐of‐return threshold is higher. On balance, the user cost of cybersecurity assets is lower in the dynamic model than is implicitly assumed in the classic model. This difference increases the economically efficient size of the cybersecurity system in val...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kerry Krutilla, Alexander Alexeev, Eric Jardine, David Good Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Defining Cyber Security and Cyber Security Risk within a Multidisciplinary Context using Expert Elicitation
AbstractIt is important to have and use standardized terminology and develop a comprehensive common understanding of what is meant by cyber security and cyber security risk given the multidisciplinary nature of cyber security and the pervasiveness of cyber security concerns throughout society. Using expert elicitation methods, collaborating cyber researchers from multiple disciplines and two sectors (academia, government –military) were individually interviewed and asked to define cyber security and cyber security risk. Data‐driven thematic analysis was used to identify the most salient themes within each definitio...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mariana G. Cains, Liberty Flora, Danica Taber, Zoe King, Diane S. Henshel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Vine Regression with Bayes Nets: A Critical Comparison with Traditional Approaches Based on a Case Study on the Effects of Breastfeeding on IQ
AbstractRegular vines (R ‐vines) copulas build high dimensional joint densities from arbitrary one‐dimensional margins and (conditional) bivariate copula densities. Vine densities enable the computation of all conditional distributions, though the calculations can be numerically intensive. Saturated continuous nonparame tric Bayes nets (CNPBN) are regular vines. Computing regression functions from the vine copula density is termed vine regression. The epicycles of regression–including/excluding covariates, interactions, higher order terms, multicollinearity, model fit, transformations, heteroscedasticity, bias&nd...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Roger M. Cooke, Harry Joe, Bo Chang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research