Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic
AbstractWith the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and negl ect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships o...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, December 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2599-2600, December 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You by Scott E.  Page, Basic Books, New York, NY, 2018, 448 pages (hard cover), ISBN: 9780465094622, $19.65.
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2786-2789, December 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Response to Letter to the Editor
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2604-2607, December 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Burns, Christy A. Barlow, Amber M. Banducci, Kenneth M. Unice, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Letter concerning: Burns  AM, Barlow CA, Banducci AM, Unice KM, Sahmel J. Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 12, Page 2601-2603, December 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Murray Martin Finkelstein Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

People, Pipelines, and Probabilities: Clarifying Significance and Uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessments
AbstractDeterminations of significance play a pivotal role in environmental impact assessments because they point decision makers to the predicted effects of an action most deserving of attention and further study. Impact predictions are always subject to uncertainty because they rely on estimates of future consequences. Yet uncertainty is often neglected or treated in a perfunctory manner as part of the characterization, evaluation, and communication of anticipated consequences and their significance. Proposals to construct fossil fuel pipelines in North America provide a highly visible example; casual treatment of how un...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 22, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robin Gregory, Theresa Satterfield, David R. Boyd Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Deep Learning Models for Health and Safety Risk Prediction in Power Infrastructure Projects
In this study, we used a text ‐mining approach for retrieving meaningful terms from data and develop six deep learning (DL) models for H&S risks management in power infrastructure. The DL models include DNNclassify (risk or no risk), DNNreg1 (loss time), DNNreg2 (body injury), DNNreg3 (plant and fleet), DNNreg4 (equipment), and DNNreg5 (environment). An H&S risk database obtained from a leading UK power infrastructure construction company was used in developing the models using the H2O framework of the R language. Performances of DL models were assessed and benchmarked with existing models using test data and app...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 22, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anuoluwapo Ajayi, Lukumon Oyedele, Hakeem Owolabi, Olugbenga Akinade, Muhammad Bilal, Juan Manuel Davila Delgado, Lukman Akanbi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Roles of Vegetable Surface Properties and Sanitizer Type on Annual Disease Burden of Rotavirus Illness by Consumption of Rotavirus ‐Contaminated Fresh Vegetables: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractEnteric viruses are often detected in water used for crop irrigation. One concern is foodborne viral disease via the consumption of fresh produce irrigated with virus ‐contaminated water. Although the food industry routinely uses chemical sanitizers to disinfect post‐harvest fresh produce, it remains unknown how sanitizer and fresh produce properties affect the risk of viral illness through fresh produce consumption. A quantitative microbial risk assessment m odel was conducted to estimate (i) the health risks associated with consumption of rotavirus (RV)‐contaminated fresh produce with different surface prop...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Miyu Fuzawa, Rebecca Lee Smith, Kang ‐Mo Ku, Joanna L. Shisler, Hao Feng, John A. Juvik, Thanh H. Nguyen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios
This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent ‐based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a ca se study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping p...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gina Tonn, Seth Guikema, Benjamin Zaitchik Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Erratum
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - November 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Erratum Source Type: research

Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)
AbstractAdverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert ‐driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts st...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lyle D. Burgoon, Michelle Angrish, Natalia Garcia ‐Reyero, Nathan Pollesch, Anze Zupanic, Edward Perkins Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety ‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach
AbstractAn empirical classification model based on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR ‐Sort) method has been previously proposed by the authors to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems (in particular, nuclear power plants [NPPs]) with respect to malevolent intentional acts. In this article, the model serves as the basis for an analysis aimed at determining a set o f protective actions to be taken (e.g., increasing the number of monitoring devices, reducing the number of accesses to the safety‐critical system) in order to effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the safety‐critical systems under c...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: T. R. Wang, N. Pedroni, E. Zio, V. Mousseau Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Stories for Interdisciplinary Disaster Research Collaboration
This article hypothesizes that doing so could foster a new mode of collaborative learning and discovery. People, including researchers, regularly tell stories to relate “what happened” based on their experience, often in ways that augment or contradict existing understandings. These stories provide naturalistic descriptions of context, complexity, and dynamic relationships in ways that formal theories, static data, and interpretations of findings can miss. They often do so memorably and engagingly, which makes them beneficial to researchers across disciplines and allows them to be integrated into their own work...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mithra Moezzi, Lori Peek Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 11, Page 2351-2352, November 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - November 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 11, November 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - November 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Review and Evaluation of the J100 ‐10 Risk and Resilience Management Standard for Water and Wastewater Systems
We present an analysis framework for evaluating such standards and apply it to the J100 ‐10 risk analysis standard for water and wastewater systems. In doing so, we identify gaps between practices recommended in the standard and the state of the art. While individual processes found within infrastructure risk analysis standards have been evaluated in the past, we present a foundation al review and focus specifically on water systems. By highlighting both the conceptual shortcomings and practical limitations, we aim to prioritize the shortcomings needed to be addressed. Key findings from this study include (1) risk defini...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Ying ‐Jeh Chen, Valerie Nicole Washington, Terje Aven, Seth David Guikema Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Characterization of Historical Methane Occurrence Frequencies from U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities with Implications for Risk Management, Operations, and Regulatory Policy
AbstractDefining a baseline for the frequency of occurrences at underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency ‐estimation methods are reviewed and broadened in this article to include critical factors of cause, severity, and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies given imperfect sampling. Frequencies for the thre e main storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil‐a...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard A. Schultz, Douglas W. Hubbard, David J. Evans, Sam L. Savage Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Using Uncertainty Analysis to Improve Consistency in Regulatory Assessments of Criteria Pollutant Standards
This article identifies an additional source for subjective judgment regarding a key epistemic uncertainty i n RIAs for National Ambient Air Quality Standards (NAAQS)—the regulator's degree of confidence in continuation of the relationship between pollutant concentration and health effects at varying concentration levels. An illustrative example is provided based on the 2013 decision on the NAAQS for fin e particulate matter (PM2.5). It shows how the regulator's justification for setting that NAAQS was structured around the regulator's subjective confidence in the continuation of health risks at different concentrati...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anne E. Smith Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

On Grand Strategy. John Lewis Gaddis (2018). Penguin Press. London, England
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 22, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

The Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale: Individual Differences in (Dis)comfort with Altering the Natural World
AbstractPeople differ in their comfort with tampering with the natural world. Although some see altering nature as a sign of human progress, others see it as dangerous or hubristic. Across four studies, we investigate discomfort with tampering with the natural world. To do so, we develop the Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale, a short scale that is the first to directly measure this discomfort. We identify six activities that people believe tamper with nature (geoengineering, genetically modified organisms, pesticides, cloning, gene therapy, and nanoparticles) and show that ATN scores are associated with opposit...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kaitlin T. Raimi, Kimberly S. Wolske, P. Sol Hart, Victoria Campbell ‐Arvai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk ‐Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard
This article describes a methodology for risk ‐informed benefit–cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field‐tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk‐informed benefit–cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analys is, and benefit–cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full‐cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Detlof Winterfeldt, R. Scott Farrow, Richard S. John, Jonathan Eyer, Adam Z. Rose, Heather Rosoff Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Robustness of Optimal Investment Decisions in Mixed Insurance/Investment Cyber Risk Management
AbstractAn integrated risk management strategy, combining insurance and security investments, where the latter contribute to reduce the insurance premium, is investigated to assess whether it can lead to reduced overall security expenses. The optimal investment for this mixed strategy is derived under three insurance policies, covering, respectively, all the losses (total coverage), just those below the limit of maximum liability (partial coverage), and those above a threshold but below the maximum liability (partial coverage with deductibles). Under certain conditions (e.g., low potential loss, or either very low or very ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessandro Mazzoccoli, Maurizio Naldi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale: Individual Differences in (Dis)comfort with Altering the Natural World
AbstractPeople differ in their comfort with tampering with the natural world. Although some see altering nature as a sign of human progress, others see it as dangerous or hubristic. Across four studies, we investigate discomfort with tampering with the natural world. To do so, we develop the Aversion to Tampering with Nature (ATN) Scale, a short scale that is the first to directly measure this discomfort. We identify six activities that people believe tamper with nature (geoengineering, genetically modified organisms, pesticides, cloning, gene therapy, and nanoparticles) and show that ATN scores are associated with opposit...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kaitlin T. Raimi, Kimberly S. Wolske, P. Sol Hart, Victoria Campbell ‐Arvai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Homeland Security Research: A Risk ‐Informed Methodology with Applications for the U.S. Coast Guard
This article describes a methodology for risk ‐informed benefit–cost analyses of homeland security research products. The methodology is field‐tested with 10 research products developed for the U.S. Coast Guard. Risk‐informed benefit–cost analysis is a tool for risk management that integrates elements of risk analysis, decision analys is, and benefit–cost analysis. The cost analysis methodology includes a full‐cost accounting of research projects, starting with initial fundamental research costs and extending to the costs of implementation of the research products and, where applicable, training, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Detlof Winterfeldt, R. Scott Farrow, Richard S. John, Jonathan Eyer, Adam Z. Rose, Heather Rosoff Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Robustness of Optimal Investment Decisions in Mixed Insurance/Investment Cyber Risk Management
AbstractAn integrated risk management strategy, combining insurance and security investments, where the latter contribute to reduce the insurance premium, is investigated to assess whether it can lead to reduced overall security expenses. The optimal investment for this mixed strategy is derived under three insurance policies, covering, respectively, all the losses (total coverage), just those below the limit of maximum liability (partial coverage), and those above a threshold but below the maximum liability (partial coverage with deductibles). Under certain conditions (e.g., low potential loss, or either very low or very ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 15, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessandro Mazzoccoli, Maurizio Naldi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2117-2118, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems by Yacov Y.  Haimes, John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, 2019, 500+ pages, $127.69, ISBN 9781119173656 (cloth).
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2348-2349, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity
AbstractThis perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy ‐governed secure collaboration; (3) security‐metrics–driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior. Howev...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Natalie M. Scala, Allison C. Reilly, Paul L. Goethals, Michel Cukier Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change
AbstractBelieving action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self ‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about p ublic efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn abo...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katherine M. Crosman, Ann Bostrom, Adam L. Hayes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions
AbstractAchieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness —how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible fo r the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions ba...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael A. L. Hayashi, Marisa C. Eisenberg, Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?
AbstractThe article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle ‐related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer. This may indicate that these respondents care ab...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adoption of Individual Flood Damage Mitigation Measures in New York City: An Extension of Protection Motivation Theory
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood ‐prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can have an important influence on individual decision making under risk, such as risk attitudes, time preferenc es, social norms, trust, and local flood risk management policies. Our results in relation to our main hypothesis are as follows. Individuals who live in high flood risk ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: W. J. Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Hans Moel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Shannon Entropy for Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Economic Disparity
This article introduces the quantification of Shannon entropy for income inequality across scales, including national ‐, subnational‐, and city‐level data. The probabilistic principles of Shannon entropy provide a new interpretation for uncertainty and risk related to economic disparity. Entropy and information‐based conflict rise as world incomes converge. High‐entropy instances can resemble both happy a nd prosperous societies as well as a socialist–communist social structure. Low entropy signals high‐risk tipping points for anomaly and conflict detection with higher confidence. Finally, spatial–t...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saurabh Mishra, Bilal M. Ayyub Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment —Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests
The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pre gnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%). (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Carl ‐Gustaf Bornehag, Efthymia Kitraki, Antonios Stamatakis, Emily Panagiotidou, Christina Rudén, Huan Shu, Christian Lindh, Joelle Ruegg, Chris Gennings Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products
AbstractOver time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic ‐talc–containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were be low levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Burns, Christy A. Barlow, Amber M. Banducci, Kenneth M. Unice, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Review of Recent Advances in Benchmark Dose Methodology
AbstractIn this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose –response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user‐friendly software and the lack...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Signe M. Jensen, Felix M. Kluxen, Christian Ritz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams
This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate ‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requireme nts for continuous fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R. Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Managing Safety ‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry
AbstractLow ‐probability, high‐impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low‐probability, high‐impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry‐wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety‐related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports acr...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christian C. Blanco, Felipe Caro, Charles J. Corbett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interventions Targeting Deep Tissue Lymph Nodes May Not Effectively Reduce the Risk of Salmonellosis from Ground Pork Consumption: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractThe inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated withSalmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter ‐to‐table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established. The model predicted an average of 45 cases of salmonellosis (95% CI = [19, 71]) per 100,000...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M. O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S. Dickson, H. Scott Hurd, Bing Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Practical Significance of Measurement Error in Pulmonary Function Testing Conducted in Research Settings
AbstractConventional spirometry produces measurement error by using repeatability criteria (RC) to discard acceptable data and terminating tests early when RC are met. These practices also implicitly assume that there is no variation across maneuvers within each test. This has implications for air pollution regulations that rely on pulmonary function tests to determine adverse effects or set standards. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,902 tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), each with eight maneuvers, for an individual with empirically obtained, plausibly normal pulmonary function. Default coeffic...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard B. Belzer, R. Jeffrey Lewis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimization of the Aflatoxin Monitoring Costs along the Maize Supply Chain
AbstractAn optimization model was used to gain insight into cost ‐effective monitoring plans for aflatoxins along the maize supply chain. The model was based on a typical Dutch maize chain, with maize grown in the Black Sea region, and transported by ship to the Netherlands for use as an ingredient in compound feed for dairy cattle. Six different scenarios, wit h different aflatoxin concentrations at harvest and possible aflatoxin production during transport, were used. By minimizing the costs and using parameters such as the concentration, the variance of the sampling plan, and the monitoring and replacement costs, the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. Focker, H. J. Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2117-2118, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems by Yacov Y.  Haimes, John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, 2019, 500+ pages, $127.69, ISBN 9781119173656 (cloth).
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2348-2349, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Pragmatic and (or) Constitutive? On the Foundations of Contemporary Risk Communication Research
AbstractA diffuse and interdisciplinary field, risk communication research, is founded on how we understand the process and purpose of communication more generally. To that end, this article outlines two fundamental functions of risk communication: (1) a pragmatic function, in which senders direct messages at audiences (and vice versa), with various intended (and sometimes unintended) effects; and (2) a constitutive function, in which messages re(create) what we mean by “risk” in a given social context, including how we can, and/or should relate to it. Although representing distinct epistemological and theoreti...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Laura N. Rickard Tags: Perspective Source Type: research