Modeling Antimicrobial Prescriptions in Scotland: A Spatiotemporal Clustering Approach
AbstractIn 2016, the British government acknowledged the importance of reducing antimicrobial prescriptions to avoid the long-term harmful effects of overprescription. Prescription needs are highly dependent on the factors that have a spatiotemporal component, such as bacterial outbreaks and urban densities. In this context, density-based clustering algorithms are flexible tools to analyze data by searching for group structures and therefore identifying peer groups of GPs with similar behavior. The case of Scotland presents an additional challenge due to the diversity of population densities under the area of study. We pro...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 23, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Antonia Gieschen, Jake Ansell, Raffaella Calabrese, Belen Martin ‐Barragan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Argumentation Analysis of Risk Assessments: The Case of Perfluorooctanoic Acid
AbstractRisk assessment of chemicals can be based on toxicology and/or epidemiology. The choice of toxicological or epidemiological data can result in different health-based guidance values (HBGVs). Communicating the underlying argumentation is important to explain these differences to the public and policymakers. In this article, we explore the argumentation used to justify the use of toxicological or epidemiological data in the derivation of HBGVs in four different risk assessments for the chemical Perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA). The pragma-dialectical argumentation theory (PDAT) is hereby applied. The argumentations to s...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 23, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: W.P. Jongeneel, H. Klaveren, R.P. Bogers, J. D évilee, K.R. Rijs, A. Piersma, T. Vermeire, E. Lebret Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Deterrence against Terrorist Attacks in Sports ‐Mega Events: A Method to Identify the Optimal Portfolio of Defensive Countermeasures
AbstractSports mega-events, such as the Olympic Games or the Super Bowl, are attractive targets for terrorist organizations, due to their visibility, size, and number of people involved. Two characteristics of sports mega-events, however, make them distinctive in comparison with other well-studied target protection problems in counterterrorism analysis (such as transportation hubs or infrastructure facilities). First, defensive measures are often publicly known. Second, their finite horizon means that deterrence against any attack must be prioritized. In this article we thus propose a method that identifies the best portfo...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 17, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marcelo Zawadzki, Gilberto Montibeller, Bruce Cox, Carmen Belderrain Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Earthquake Threat! Understanding the Intention to Prepare for the Big One
AbstractKnowledge about how hazard-threatened individuals perceive risks and what influences their intentions to prepare is crucial for effective disaster management. We investigated (a) whether residents of objectively higher-risk earthquake areas within a city perceive greater risk, have stronger intentions to prepare, and report more preparation than residents of objectively lower-risk areas, (b) 10 antecedent factors as predictors of the intention to prepare for an earthquake, and (c) whether risk perception mediates the relations between nine antecedent factors and the intention to prepare. Notably, residents of high-...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zahra Asgarizadeh Lamjiry, Robert Gifford Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrating Risk Assessment and Decision ‐Making Methods in Analyzing the Dynamics of COVID‐19 Epidemics in Davao City, Mindanao Island, Philippines
This study presents a method that integrates risk management tools into health care decision-making processes to enhance the understanding and utilization of risk-based thinking in public health decision making. The risk assessment consists of the identification of the key risk factors of the COVID-19 contagion via bow-tie diagrams. Second, the safety controls for each risk factor relevant to the Davao City context are taken into account and are identified as barriers in the bow-tie. After which, the prioritization of the identified COVID-19 risks, as well as the effectiveness of the proposed interventions, is performed us...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 16, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gernelyn Logrosa, May Anne Mata, Zython Paul Lachica, Leo Manuel Esta ña, Maureen Hassall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Multiperiod Model for Assessing the Socioeconomic Impacts of Oil Spills during Arctic Shipping
AbstractAs the rate of ice melt in the Arctic increases, the potential for shipping activities is also increasing.  However, infrastructure along the northwest passage (NWP) in Canada's Arctic is almost nonexistent. This presents major challenges to any response efforts in the case of a natural disaster. Also, the Arctic is home to many indigenous communities, as well as flora and fauna. Thus, it is of vital im portance to protect the livelihood of the rights holders in this area and the Arctic marine environment. To do this, it is necessary to develop a decision-making tool to assess the potential risk of pollutants ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 8, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mawuli Afenyo, Adolf K.Y. Ng, Changmin Jiang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Effective Lockdown and Role of Hospital ‐Based COVID‐19 Transmission in Some Indian States: An Outbreak Risk Analysis
AbstractSeveral reports in India indicate hospitals and quarantined centers are COVID-19 hotspots. To study the transmission occurring from the hospitals and as well as from the community, we developed a mechanistic model with a lockdown effect. Using daily COVID-19 cases data from six states and overall India, we estimated several important parameters of our model. Moreover, we provided an estimation of the effective (RT), the basic (R0), the community (RC), and the hospital (RH) reproduction numbers. We forecast COVID-19 notified cases from May 3, 2020, till May 20, 2020, under five different lockdown scenarios in the se...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tridip Sardar, Sourav Rana Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Rethinking Risk Perception and its Importance for Explaining Natural Hazard Preparedness Behavior
In this study, respondents were randomly presented with one of five hypothetical cyclone scenarios, which differed in objective severity. Respondents were also presented with a survey, which assessed risk perception, protective action perceptions (or coping appraisal), and intentions to perform short-term protective behaviors. As hypothesized, risk perception significantly increased preparedness intentions when controlling for hazard severity, hazard probability, and protective action perceptions. Moreover, the degree to which respondents associated negative emotions with predicted damage was also a relatively strong predi...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mitchell Scovell, Connar McShane, Anne Swinbourne, Daniel Smith Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Bank Risk Appetite Communication and Risk Taking: The Key Role of Integrated Reports
This article investigates whether qualitative information provided by banks about risk appetite (RA) sheds substantive insight on their effective risk taking (RT) and whether this latter in turn affects RA disclosure, as well as the role played by specific types of banks ’ reports (i.e., integrated report, annual report, Pillar 3 report) on such relations. Using a sample of 134 reports representing 52 banks, a generalized structural equation model is applied. The article hypothesizes and empirically finds a reciprocal relation between RA disclosure and banks’ RT . More specifically, in line with agency theory, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 1, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Chiara Mio, Marisa Agostini, Silvia Panfilo Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interdisciplinary Theory, Methods, and Approaches for Hazards and Disaster Research: An Introduction to the Special Issue
This article addresses these and other pressing questions by taking stock of recent advancements in interdisciplinary studies of hazards and disasters. It also introduces the special issue ofRisk Analysis, which includes this introductory article and 25 original perspectives papers meant to highlight new trends and applications in the field. The papers were written following two National Science Foundation-supported workshops that were organized in response to the growing interest in interdisciplinary hazards and disaster research, the increasing number of interdisciplinary funding opportunities and collaborations in the f...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 29, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lori Peek, Seth Guikema Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Effects of Key Influencing Factors on Unsafe Events in Airport Flight Areas According to Time Series Data
This study applied modern econometric models to analyze the factors affecting the number of unsafe events (NUE) in the airport flight area using time series data from 1993 to 2017. Influencing factors considered in this article include gross domestic product (GDP) per capita (GDPPC), household consumption level (HCL), the civil aviation passenger turnover (CAPT), the number of civil aviation transport aircraft (NCATA), the total population of the whole country, and the number of civil aviation employment (NCAE). First, the Johansen cointegration test results demonstrate that HCL, NCATA, and NCAE have long-term effects on u...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 26, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Quan Shao, Haoran Liu, Pei Zhu, Wei Wei, Hang Zhou, Mingming Yang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Correction to “A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High‐Level Radioactive Waste”
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Erratum Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From The Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

On Model Pluralism and the Utility of Quantitative Decision Support
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert Lempert, Sara Turner Tags: Response Source Type: research

On Decision ‐Analytical Support for Wicked Policy Issues
AbstractLempert and Turner contribute importantly to the design of decision-analytical tools for wicked policy issues by acknowledging the centrality of socially determined and often irreconcilable worldviews. Their point of departure is application of the DMDU approach (decision making under deep uncertainty)separately  for each contending worldview as postulated by cultural theory. This allows stakeholders to maintain solidarity with their social or organizational value communities, an important consideration or even prerequisite for robust policy compromises. Drawing from a codesign process in Italy, this commentar...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: JoAnne Linnerooth ‐Bayer Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision ‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model
This study aims to build on recent advances in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) to demonstrate methods and tools that may help resolve the tension between quantitative decision support and multiworldview approaches for addressing wicked problems. The study employs robust decision making (RDM), one common DMDU method, and a new version of the lake model, a simple and widely used model of a coupled human and natural system, to conduct a stylized analysis that reflects three different worldviews. The RDM analysis solves the decision challenge independently for each worldview and then compares each set of solution...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert J. Lempert, Sara Turner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Effectiveness of a Large ‐Scale Flood Risk Awareness Campaign: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets
In this study, we perform two independent empirical analyses to assess whether a large-scale awareness campaign in Germany affected private flood protection or insurance behavior. We thereby exploit the fact that different federal states initiated the campaign at different points in time between 2009 and 2017. In the first analysis, we use a longitudinal data set of a national sample of 6,729 household heads in the years 2012 and 2014 and focus on three federal states that launched the campaign in 2013. In the second analysis, we use flood damage and insurance penetration data at the federal state level from 2002 to 2018 (...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel Osberghaus, Hendrik Hinrichs Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

(Almost) all Quiet Over One and a Half Years: A Longitudinal Study on Causality Between Key Determinants of Private Flood Mitigation
AbstractPrevious studies do not agree on the strengths and directions of the effects between risk appraisal, nonprotective, and protective responses in private flood mitigation. This may be due to the widespread use of cross-sectional survey designs, which infer causality from theoretical considerations alone. The present longitudinal study, in contrast, builds on the logic that cause precedes effect to confirm the direction of effects.Drawing on two-wave survey data from 554 flood-prone households in Austria, cross-lagged autoregressive models analyze pairwise combinations between risk perception, fear, five nonprotective...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sebastian Seebauer, Philipp Babcicky Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Determinants of Domestic Risk Prevention Behavior: The Importance of Separating Effects Within ‐Persons and Between‐Persons
In this study we test the effects of these determinants in a new context: the domestic risk prevention domain. The specific behaviors under study are related to the risks of burglary, fire, and water damage. In addition to previous studies, our multilevel research design allows us to evaluate which differences in the performance of domestic prevention behavior can be attributed to differences between persons and which to differences between behaviors within persons. Our results show that all determinants are relevant predictors for domestic risk prevention behavior. Disentangling the within-person and between-person effect...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Patty C.P. Jansen, Chris C.P. Snijders, Martijn C. Willemsen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Key Factors and Coupling Relationships of Collaborative Governance for Disaster Prevention in China's Coastal Cities
AbstractIn order to discover the key factors for the successful implementation of the collaborative management of disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal cities and their causal coupling, based on the hypothesis, the main factor analysis method was used to analyze the key factors of the various subsystems of disaster prevention and mitigation, and to verify the correlation between the main factors and the successful implementation of coordinated governance for disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal cities. Interpretative structural model (ISM) is used to explore the coupling relationship between subsystems and...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Huang Xing, Li Xing Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Exploring Probabilistic Network ‐Based Modeling of Multidimensional Factors Associated with Country Risk
AbstractAssessment of country risk provides a vital source of information to organizations for expanding and globalizing their operations. Various rating agencies are involved in developing models for assessing country risk, which utilize different statistical techniques for establishing the overall impact of individual factors on country risk. The main limitation of existing studies on country risk is their limited focus on exploring the relative contribution of individual factors to country risk in a probabilistic network setting. Utilizing real data, we develop a probabilistic network model that captures dependencies am...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Abroon Qazi, M. Sajid Khan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Portfolio Seismic Loss Estimation and Risk ‐based Critical Scenarios for Residential Wooden Houses in Victoria, British Columbia, and Canada
This study presents a city-wide seismic risk assessment of single-family wooden houses in Victoria, British Columbia, and Canada. The novelty and uniqueness of this study include considerations of detailed building-by-building exposure model for residential houses, current national seismic hazard model for Canada, and rigorous seismic fragility modeling of wooden houses based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures subjected to mainshock-aftershock sequences. A full consideration of stochastic event scenarios in probabilistic seismic risk analysis allows the identification of critical scenarios from overall regional se...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katsuichiro Goda, Lizhong Zhang, Solomon Tesfamariam Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Analysis of Occurrences Associated with Air Traffic Volume and Air Traffic Controllers ’ Alertness for Fatigue Risk Management
AbstractFatigue is an inevitable hazard in the provision of air traffic services and it has the potential to degrade human performance leading to occurrences. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requires air navigation services which providers establish fatigue risk management systems (FRMS) based on scientific principles for the purpose of managing fatigue. To develop effective FRMSs, it is important to investigate the relationship between traffic volume, air traffic management occurrences, and fatigue. Fifty-seven qualified ATCOs from a European Air Navigation Services provider participated in this resea...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wen ‐Chin Li, Peter Kearney, Jingyi Zhang, Yueh‐Ling Hsu, Graham Braithwaite Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Impact of Abstract Versus Concrete Conceptualization of Genetic Modification (GM) Technology on Public Perceptions
AbstractBased on the scholarship of abstract/concrete cognition, mental schema, and the integrated model of behavior change, this study found that using concrete over abstract language increased support for specific genetically modified (GM) applications and GM in general, and improved intentions to purchase products containing genetically modified organisms (GMOs). An online survey with an embedded 3 × 2 experiment was conducted using a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 1,470). Participants were randomly assigned to conditions that varied in abstract/concrete conceptualization of GMOs and were prompted to assess G...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Meghnaa Tallapragada, Bruce W. Hardy, Evan Lybrand, William K. Hallman Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimating Consignment ‐Level Infestation Rates from the Proportion of Consignment that Failed Border Inspection: Possibilities and Limitations in the Presence of Overdispersed Data
AbstractIntroduction of pests and diseases through trade is one of the main socioecological challenges worldwide. Targeted sampling at border security can efficiently provide information about biosecurity threats and also reduce pest entry risk. Prioritizing sampling effort requires knowing which pathways are most infested. However, border security inspection data are often right-censored, as inspection agencies often only report that a consignment has failed inspection (i.e., there was at least one unit infested), not how many infested units were found. A method has been proposed to estimate the mean infestation rate of a...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rapha ël Trouvé, Andrew P. Robinson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Trust, Perceptions of Risks and Benefits, and Normative Acceptance of Approaches for Restoring American Chestnut Trees
This article examined trust, perceived risks and benefits, and normative acceptance associated with using breeding and genetic engineering (GE) to restore American chestnut (AC) trees. Questionnaires were completed by a random representative sample of the public in the United States (n = 278) and a purposive sample of forest interest groups (FIG) such as scientists and managers (n = 195). These concepts were examined in relation to breeding (breed the AC with chestnut trees from Asia) and GE (add the oxalate oxidase [OxO] gene from bread wheat to the AC) approaches for mitigating chestnut blight and restoring AC trees. The...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joshua D. Petit, Mark D. Needham, Glenn T. Howe Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Individual and Collective Strategies to Limit the Impacts of Large Power Outages of Long Duration
This article compares individual and collective strategies for providing limited amounts of electric power to residential customers in a hypothetical New England community during a large electric power outage of long duration. We develop estimates of the emergency load required for survival and assess the cost of strategies to address outages that last 5, 10, and 20 days in either winter or summer. We find that the cost of collective solutions could be as much as 10 to 40 times less than individual solutions (less than $2 per month per home). However, collective solutions would require community-wide coordination, and if l...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 24, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Angelena D. Bohman, Ahmed Abdulla, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Analysis of Safety Risks and Relationship with Delayed Project Completion Times
AbstractDynamic work environments in construction and civil infrastructure sectors remain susceptible to safety risks. Although previous research has resulted in improvements, there is currently a gap in measuring temporal impacts of safety risks quantitatively. Precise modeling of potential delays caused by safety incidents is vital for efficient management of risks and making informed decisions on project contingency. Toward this aim, the current research adopts a nondeterministic modeling method to simulate and quantify safety incidents and find correlations with project delays. Using a deductive approach, three researc...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 24, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Maryam Alkaissy, Mehrdad Arashpour, Heng Li, Sina Alaghmand, Abe Nezamian Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Federal Regulation and Mortality in the 50 States
This article fills an important gap in the empirical literature and boosts the credibility of mortality risk analysis, whereby public policymakers weigh both the expected lives saved and lost due to a proposed regulation or other policy. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 24, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James Broughel, Dustin Chambers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantifying SARS ‐CoV‐2 Infection Risk Within the Google/Apple Exposure Notification Framework to Inform Quarantine Recommendations
AbstractMost early Bluetooth-based exposure notification apps use three binary classifications to recommend quarantine following SARS-CoV-2 exposure: a window of infectiousness in the transmitter, ≥15 minutes duration, and Bluetooth attenuation below a threshold. However, Bluetooth attenuation is not a reliable measure of distance, and infection risk is not a binary function of distance, nor duration, nor timing. We model uncertainty in the shape and orientation of an exhaled virus-containi ng plume and in inhalation parameters, and measure uncertainty in distance as a function of Bluetooth attenuation. We calculate exp...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 22, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Wilson, Nathan Aviles, James I. Petrie, Paloma I. Beamer, Zsombor Szabo, Michelle Xie, Janet McIllece, Yijie Chen, Young ‐Jun Son, Sameer Halai, Tina White, Kacey C. Ernst, Joanna Masel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Organizational Resilience to Disruption Risks: Developing Metrics and Testing Effectiveness of Operational Strategies
This study draws from the system resilience literature to propose three different metrics for evaluating the resilience performance of organizations against disruptions: the initial loss due to the disruption, the maximum loss, and the total loss over time. In order to show the usefulness of the developed metrics in practice, we deploy these metrics to study the effectiveness of two resilience strategies: maintaining operational slack and broadening operational scope, by empirically analyzing the performance of manufacturing firms that experienced a disruption during the period from 2005 to the end of 2014. The results sho...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 21, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Milad Baghersad, Christopher W. Zobel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Balancing the Elicitation Burden and the Richness of Expert Input When Quantifying Discrete Bayesian Networks
AbstractStructured expert judgment (SEJ) is a method for obtaining estimates of uncertain quantities from groups of experts in a structured way designed to minimize the pervasive cognitive frailties of unstructured approaches. When the number of quantities required is large, the burden on the groups of experts is heavy, and resource constraints may mean that eliciting all the quantities of interest is impossible. Partial elicitations can be complemented with imputation methods for the remaining, unelicited quantities. In the case where the quantities of interest are conditional probability distributions, the natural relati...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 21, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Martine J. Barons, Steven Mascaro, Anca M. Hanea Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Global Sensitivity Analysis with Mixtures: A Generalized Functional ANOVA Approach
AbstractThis work investigates aspects of the global sensitivity analysis of computer codes when alternative plausible distributions for the model inputs are available to the analyst. Analysts may decide to explore results under each distribution or to aggregate the distributions, assigning, for instance, a mixture. In the first case, we lose uniqueness of the sensitivity measures, and in the second case, we lose independence even if the model inputs are independent under each of the assigned distributions. Removing the unique distribution assumption impacts the mathematical properties at the basis of variance-based sensit...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 19, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emanuele Borgonovo, Genyuan Li, John Barr, Elmar Plischke, Herschel Rabitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

BARD: A Structured Technique for Group Elicitation of Bayesian Networks to Support Analytic Reasoning
AbstractIn many complex, real-world situations, problem solving and decision making require effective reasoning about causation and uncertainty. However, human reasoning in these cases is prone to confusion and error. Bayesian networks (BNs) are an artificial intelligence technology that models uncertain situations, supporting better probabilistic and causal reasoning and decision making. However, to date, BN methodologies and software require (but do not include) substantial upfront training, do not provide much guidance on either the model building process or on using the model for reasoning and reporting, and provide no...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 19, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Erik P. Nyberg, Ann E. Nicholson, Kevin B. Korb, Michael Wybrow, Ingrid Zukerman, Steven Mascaro, Shreshth Thakur, Abraham Oshni Alvandi, Jeff Riley, Ross Pearson, Shane Morris, Matthieu Herrmann, A.K.M. Azad, Fergus Bolger, Ulrike Hahn, Da Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimation of Tolerable Daily Intake (TDI) for Immunological Effects of Aflatoxin
AbstractAflatoxins are toxic chemicals produced by the fungiAspergillus flavus andAspergillus parasiticus. In warm climates, these fungi frequently contaminate crops such as maize, peanuts, tree nuts, and sunflower seeds. In many tropical and subtropical regions of the world, populations are coexposed to dietary aflatoxin and multiple infectious pathogens in food, water, and the environment. There is increasing evidence that aflatoxin compromises the immune system, which could increase infectious disease risk in vulnerable populations. Our aim was to conduct a dose –response assessment on a noncarcinogenic endpoint o...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 19, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nikita Saha Turna, Felicia Wu Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk Assessment of Norovirus Illness from Consumption of Raw Oysters in the United States and in Canada
This study describes the model and scenarios developed and results obtained to assess the risk of NoV infection and illness from consumption of raw oysters harvested from a quasi-steady-state situation. Among the many factors that influence the risk of NoV illness for raw oyster consumers, the concentrations of NoV in the influent (raw, untreated) and effluent (treated) of wastewater treatment plants (WWTP) were identified to be the most important. Thus, mitigation and control strategies that limit the influence from human waste (WWTP outfalls) in oyster growing areas have a major influence on the risk of illness from cons...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: R égis Pouillot, Mark Smith, Jane M. Van Doren, Angela Catford, Jennifer Holtzman, Kevin R. Calci, Robyn Edwards, Gregory Goblick, Christopher Roberts, Jeffrey Stobo, John White, Jacquelina Woods, Angelo DePaola, Enrico Buenaventura, Willia Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating Uncertainties About the Effects of Medical Interventions Using Different Display Formats
AbstractCommunicating uncertainties in scientific evidence is important to accurately reflect scientific knowledge , increase public understanding of uncertainty, and to signal transparency and honesty in reporting. While techniques have been developed to facilitate the communication of uncertainty, many have not been empirically tested, compared for communicating different types of uncertainty, or their effects on different cognitive, trust, and behavioral outcomes have not been evaluated. The present study examined how a point estimate, imprecise estimate, conflicting estimates, or a statement about the lack of evidence ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michelle McDowell, Astrid Kause Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Benchmark Dose Analysis for Maternal Pregnancy Urine ‐Fluoride and IQ in Children
AbstractAs a guide to establishing a safe exposure level for fluoride exposure in pregnancy, we applied benchmark dose modeling to data from two prospective birth cohort studies. We included mother –child pairs from the Early Life Exposures in Mexico to Environmental Toxicants (ELEMENT) cohort in Mexico and the Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) cohort in Canada. Maternal urinary fluoride concentrations (U-F, in mg/L, creatinine-adjusted) were measured in urine sampl es obtained during pregnancy. Children were assessed for intelligence quotient (IQ) at age 4 (n = 211) and between six and 12 y...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 9, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philippe Grandjean, Howard Hu, Christine Till, Rivka Green, Morteza Bashash, David Flora, Martha Maria Tellez ‐Rojo, Peter X.K. Song, Bruce Lanphear, Esben Budtz‐Jørgensen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the risk of robbery in bank branches to reduce impact on personnel
AbstractAccording to existing literature, bank robberies can have a considerable impact on the people involved (employees, customers, and police officers), even if the direct economic losses are negligible. Consequently, this article presents a model to assess the risk of bank robbery, with the aim of reducing the impact on the people and prioritizing the investments in security measures. It is based on the MIVES (Spanish acronym for the Integrated Value Model for Sustainability Assessment) method and it was combined with Monte Carlo simulation as a way of taking into account the uncertainty. Correlations were also modeled...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 8, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mar ía Pilar de la Cruz López, Juan José Cartelle Barros, Alfredo del Caño Gochi, María Concepción Garaboa Fernández, Jesús Blanco Leis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

System Analysis of Wildfire ‐Water Supply Risk in Colorado, USA with Monte Carlo Wildfire and Rainfall Simulation
AbstractWater supply impairment from increased contaminant mobilization and transport after wildfire is a major concern for communities that rely on surface water from fire-prone watersheds. In this article we present a Monte Carlo simulation method to quantify the likelihood of wildfire impairing water supplies by combining stochastic representations of annual wildfire and rainfall activity. Water quality impairment was evaluated in terms of turbidity limits for treatment by modeling wildfire burn severity, postfire erosion, sediment transport, and suspended sediment dilution in receiving waterbodies. Water supply disrupt...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 8, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Benjamin M. Gannon, Yu Wei, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Karen C. Short Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cascade Sensitivity Measures
AbstractIn risk analysis, sensitivity measures quantify the extent to which the probability distribution of a model output is affected by changes (stresses) in individual random input factors. For input factors that are statistically dependent, we argue that a stress on one input should also precipitate stresses in other input factors. We introduce a novel sensitivity measure, termedcascade sensitivity, defined as a derivative of a risk measure applied on the output, in the direction of an input factor. The derivative is taken after suitably transforming the random vector of inputs, thus explicitly capturing the direct imp...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 3, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Silvana M. Pesenti, Pietro Millossovich, Andreas Tsanakas Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Double Bind of Communicating About Zoonotic Origins: Describing Exotic Animal Sources of COVID ‐19 Increases Both Healthy and Discriminatory Avoidance Intentions
AbstractMany novel diseases are of zoonotic origin, likely including COVID-19. Describing diseases as originating from a diverse range of animals is known to increase risk perceptions and intentions to engage in preventative behaviors. However, it is also possible that communications depicting use of exotic animals as food sources may activate stereotypes of cultures at the origin of a disease, increasing discriminatory behaviors and disease stigma. We used general linear modeling and mediation analysis to test experimental data on communications about zoonotic disease origins from the critical first two months leading up ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 2, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mark LaCour, Brent Hughes, Micah Goldwater, Molly Ireland, Darrell Worthy, Jason Van Allen, Nick Gaylord, Garrett Van ‐Hoosier, Tyler Davis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The COVID University Challenge: A Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points Assessment of the Return of Students to Higher Education Establishments
AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted economies and societies throughout the world since early 2020. Education is especially affected, with schools and universities widely closed for long periods. People under 25 years have the lowest risk of severe disease but their activities can be key to persistent ongoing community transmission. A challenge arose for how to provide education, including university level, without the activities of students increasing wider community SARS-CoV-2 infections. We used a Hazard Analysis of Critical Control Points (HACCP) framework to assess the risks associated with university student a...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 2, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kelly L. Edmunds, Laura Bowater, Julii Brainard, Jean ‐Charles Coriolis, Iain Lake, Rimsha R. Malik, Lorraine Newark, Neil Ward, Kay Yeoman, Paul R. Hunter Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Two ‐Stage Data‐Driven Spatiotemporal Analysis to Predict Failure Risk of Urban Sewer Systems Leveraging Machine Learning Algorithms
AbstractRisk-informed asset management is key to maintaining optimal performance and efficiency of urban sewer systems. Although sewer system failures are spatiotemporal in nature, previous studies analyzed failure risk from a unidimensional aspect (either spatial or temporal), not accounting for bidimensional spatiotemporal complexities. This is owing to the insufficiency of good-quality data, which ultimately leads to under-/overestimation of failure risk. Here, we propose a generalized methodology/framework to facilitate a robust spatiotemporal analysis of urban sewer system failure risk, overcoming the intrinsic challe...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 31, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John E. Fontecha, Puneet Agarwal, Mar ía N. Torres, Sayanti Mukherjee, Jose L. Walteros, Juan P. Rodríguez Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Preferences for Prevention: People Assume Expensive Problems Have Expensive Solutions
AbstractPeople support inefficient spending on preventing disasters, and these preferences are translated into inefficient policies as elected officials try to appeal to their constituents. Here, we find preferences for prevention spending are biased by the “cost conflation” mechanism, where people assume expensive problems have expensive solutions. In this article, we present a formal model of collective action, and illustrate how cost conflation causes people to deviate from the equilibria. We test for these hypothesized deviations using an incen tivized experiment. The experimental subjects engage in cost co...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Talbot M. Andrews, John Barry Ryan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Global Systemic Risk and Resilience for Novel Coronavirus and COVID ‐19
AbstractThis Special Issue is dedicated to issues and challenges related to pandemic risk and resilience, with a focus on policy and operations of global systems in the COVID-19 pandemic. The cascading effects of emerging and reemerging infectious diseases to the global economy are a critical interest. Measures to confront the ongoing pandemic are an urgent need. Data analysis at regional and global scales is helping to prioritize response and resilience across locations of high risks. The risk sciences are available for addressing human health and infection risks; the evaluation of risk management strategies and tradeoffs...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Desheng Dash Wu, Jade Mitchell, James H. Lambert Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Do the Benefits of COVID ‐19 Policies Exceed the Costs? Exploring Uncertainties in the Age–VSL Relationship
AbstractNumerous analyses of the benefits and costs of COVID-19 policies have been completed quickly as the crisis has unfolded. The results often largely depend on the approach used to value mortality risk reductions, typically expressed as the value per statistical life (VSL). Many analyses rely on a population-average VSL estimate; some adjust VSL for life expectancy at the age of death. We explore the implications of theory and empirical studies, which suggest that the relationship between age and VSL is uncertain. We compare the effects of three approaches: (1) an invariant population-average VSL; (2) a constant value...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lisa A. Robinson, Ryan Sullivan, Jason F. Shogren Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Challenges Associated With the Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID ‐19) Pandemic in Africa—An African Diaspora Perspective
AbstractThe 2014 –2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa extracted huge health, social, and economic costs. How can lessons learnt during the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa help to mitigate the likelihood of a long-term devastating effect of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) outbreak on the African contine nt? Despite COVID-19 spreading quickly across the globe after being first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019, African countries remained relatively unaffected until the second week of March 2020. The majority of Africa countries have been at low to moderate risk. However, they have experi enc...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 18, 2021 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andre M. N. Renzaho Tags: Perspective Source Type: research