High Throughput Risk and Impact Screening of Chemicals in Consumer Products
AbstractThe ubiquitous presence of more than 80,000 chemicals in thousands of consumer products used on a daily basis stresses the need for screening a broader set of chemicals than the traditional well ‐studied suspect chemicals. This high‐throughput screening combines stochastic chemical‐product usage with mass balance‐based exposure models and toxicity data to prioritize risks associated with household products. We first characterize product usage using the stochastic SHEDS‐HT model an d chemical content in common household products from the CPDat database, the chemical amounts applied daily varying over more ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Olivier Jolliet, Lei Huang, Ping Hou, Peter Fantke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adoption of a Data ‐Driven Bayesian Belief Network Investigating Organizational Factors that Influence Patient Safety
This study provides significant insights to understand organizational factors’ role and their relative importance in supporting decision‐making and safety improvements. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mecit Can Emre Simsekler, Abroon Qazi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimization of Sampling for Monitoring Chemicals in the Food Supply Chain Using a Risk ‐Based Approach: The Case of Aflatoxins and Dioxins in the Dutch Dairy Chain
AbstractFood safety monitoring faces the challenge of tackling multiple chemicals along the various stages of the food supply chain. Our study developed a methodology for optimizing sampling for monitoring multiple chemicals along the dairy supply chain. We used a mixed integer nonlinear programming approach to maximize the performance of the sampling in terms of reducing the risk of the potential disability adjusted life years (DALYs) in the population. Decision variables are the number of samples collected and analyzed at each stage of the food chain (feed mills, dairy farms, milk trucks, and dairy processing plants) for...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 16, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Z. Wang, H. J. Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Bayesian Stacked Parametric Survival with Frailty Components and Interval ‐Censored Failure Times: An Application to Food Allergy Risk
AbstractTo better understand the risk of exposure to food allergens, food challenge studies are designed to slowly increase the dose of an allergen delivered to allergic individuals until an objective reaction occurs. These dose ‐to‐failure studies are used to determine acceptable intake levels and are analyzed using parametric failure time models. Though these models can provide estimates of the survival curve and risk, their parametric form may misrepresent the survival function for doses of interest. Different models that describe the data similarly may produce different dose‐to‐failure estimates. Motivated by p...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 16, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, Joost Westerhout, Joe L. Baumert, Benjamin C. Remington Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating about Contaminated Site Cleanup using Coordinated and Consistent Metrics: Opportunity and Challenge for the U.S. Department of Energy
AbstractOver $500 billion has gone toward cleanup of large contaminated sites owned and/or operated by the U.S. Federal Government over the past 30 years. Nevertheless, some stakeholders worry about the risks associated with what they perceive as a slow process of cleanup, as well as the positive and negative impacts of the cleanup activities themselves. Therefore, it is important for both the U.S. taxpayer and workers and residents living near the sites that are impacted by site conditions and activities, to clearly understand the progress that is being made toward achieving published cleanup goals, and a timeline for com...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 16, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Karen Lowrie, Henry Mayer, Michael Greenberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Dose Response Relationship of Waterborne Acanthamoeba
This study developed dose response models for determining the probability of eye or central nervous system infections from previously conducted studies using different strains ofAcanthamoeba spp. The data were a result of animal experiments using mice and rats exposed corneally and intranasally to the pathogens. The corneal inoculations ofAcanthamoeba isolate Ac 118 included varied amounts ofCorynebacterium xerosis and were best fit by the exponential model. Virulence increased with higher levels ofC. xerosis. TheAcanthamoeba culbertsoni intranasal study with death as an endpoint of response was best fit by the beta ‐Poi...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 13, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kara Dean, Sushil Tamrakar, Yin Huang, Joan B. Rose, Jade Mitchell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perception and Risk Analysis in a Hyperpartisan and Virtuously Violent World
AbstractI shall discuss, from a personal perspective, research on risk perception that has created an understanding of the dynamic interplay between an appreciation of risk that resides in us as a feeling and an appreciation of risk that results from analysis. In some circumstances, feelings reflect important social values that deserve to be considered along with traditional analyses of physical and economic risk. In other situations, both feelings and analyses may be shaped by powerful cognitive biases and deep social and partisan prejudices, causing nonrational judgments and decisions. This is of concern if risk analysis...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul Slovic Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

(Almost) all Quiet Over One and a Half Years: A Longitudinal Study on Causality Between Key Determinants of Private Flood Mitigation
AbstractPrevious studies do not agree on the strengths and directions of the effects between risk appraisal, nonprotective, and protective responses in private flood mitigation. This may be due to the widespread use of cross ‐sectional survey designs, which infer causality from theoretical considerations alone. The present longitudinal study, in contrast, builds on the logic that cause precedes effect to confirm the direction of effects.Drawing on two ‐wave survey data from 554 flood‐prone households in Austria, cross‐lagged autoregressive models analyze pairwise combinations between risk perception, fear, five non...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sebastian Seebauer, Philipp Babcicky Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Effectiveness of a Large ‐Scale Flood Risk Awareness Campaign: Evidence from Two Panel Data Sets
In this study, we perform two independent empirical analyses to assess whether a large ‐scale awareness campaign in Germany affected private flood protection or insurance behavior. We thereby exploit the fact that different federal states initiated the campaign at different points in time between 2009 and 2017. In the first analysis, we use a longitudinal data set of a national samp le of 6,729 household heads in the years 2012 and 2014 and focus on three federal states that launched the campaign in 2013. In the second analysis, we use flood damage and insurance penetration data at the federal state level from 2002 to 20...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 4, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel Osberghaus, Hendrik Hinrichs Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Answerable and Unanswerable Questions in Risk Analysis with Open ‐World Novelty
This article offers an AI/machine learning perspective o n recent ideas for making decision and risk analysis (even) more useful. It reviews undecidability results and recent principles and methods for enabling intelligent agents to learn what works and how to complete useful tasks, adjust plans as needed, and achieve multiple goals safely and reasonably efficiently when possible, despite open‐world uncertainties and unpredictable events. In the near future, these principles could contribute to the formulation and effective implementation of more effective plans and policies in business, regulation, and public policy, as...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 29, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Impact of Abstract Versus Concrete Conceptualization of Genetic Modification (GM) Technology on Public Perceptions
AbstractBased on the scholarship of abstract/concrete cognition, mental schema, and the integrated model of behavior change, this study found that using concrete over abstract language increased support for specific genetically modified (GM) applications and GM in general, and improved intentions to purchase products containing genetically modified organisms (GMOs). An online survey with an embedded 3 × 2 experiment was conducted using a national sample of U.S. adults (N = 1,470). Participants were randomly assigned to conditions that varied in abstract/concrete conceptualization of GMOs and were prompted to assess G...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 26, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Meghnaa Tallapragada, Bruce W. Hardy, Evan Lybrand, William K. Hallman Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Reinventing Cloth Masks in the Face of Pandemics
AbstractBecause asymptomatic carriers of COVID ‐19 produce respiratory droplets that can remain suspended in air for several hours, social distancing may not be a reliable physical barrier to transmission. During the COVID‐19 pandemic, however, some governments were reluctant to mandate public mask use out of concern this would worsen shorta ges of respirators for healthcare workers. Cloth masks with a filtering effectiveness of 70–90% can be made from widely available materials, and are a better option than respirators for the public. Countries could rapidly implement Effective Fiber Mask Programs (EFMPs) to use...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stephen Salter Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Dose –Response Modeling: Extrapolating From Experimental Data to Real‐World Populations
In this study, a proba bilistic framework is developed that extends Brookmeyer's competing‐risks dose–response model to allow for variation in factors such as dose‐dispersion, dose‐deposition, and other within‐host parameters. With data sets drawn from dose–response experiments of inhalational anthrax, plague, and tularemia, we illustrate how for certain cases, there is the potential for overestimation of infection numbers arising from models that consider only the experimental data in isolation. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Adrian Pratt, Emma Bennett, Joseph Gillard, Steve Leach, Ian Hall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recent Advances in Probabilistic Dose –Response Assessment to Inform Risk‐Based Decision Making
AbstractParadoxically, risk assessments for the majority of chemicals lack any quantitative characterization as to the likelihood, incidence, or severity of the risks involved. The relatively few cases where “risk” is truly quantified are based on either epidemiologic data or extrapolation of experimental animal cancer bioassay data. The paucity of chemicals and health endpoints for which such data are available severely limits the ability of decisionmakers to account for the impacts of chemical exp osures on human health. The development by the World Health Organization International Programme on Chemical Safe...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Weihsueh A. Chiu, Greg M. Paoli Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Exploring Probabilistic Network ‐Based Modeling of Multidimensional Factors Associated with Country Risk
AbstractAssessment of country risk provides a vital source of information to organizations for expanding and globalizing their operations. Various rating agencies are involved in developing models for assessing country risk, which utilize different statistical techniques for establishing the overall impact of individual factors on country risk. The main limitation of existing studies on country risk is their limited focus on exploring the relative contribution of individual factors to country risk in a probabilistic network setting. Utilizing real data, we develop a probabilistic network model that captures dependencies am...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Abroon Qazi, M. Sajid Khan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 9, Page 1691-1692, September 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 9, September 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Risk Perception: Reflections on 40 Years of Research
AbstractNumerous studies and practical experiences with risk have demonstrated the importance of risk perceptions for people's behavior. In this narrative review, we describe and reflect upon some of the lines of research that we feel have been important in helping us understand the factors and processes that shape people's risk perceptions. In our review, we propose that much of the research on risk perceptions to date can be grouped according to three dominant perspectives and, thus, approaches to study design; they are: the characteristics of hazards, the characteristics of risk perceivers, and the application of heuris...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Siegrist, Joseph Árvai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Challenges Associated With the Response to the Coronavirus Disease (COVID ‐19) Pandemic in Africa—An African Diaspora Perspective
AbstractThe 2014 –2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa extracted huge health, social, and economic costs. How can lessons learnt during the 2014–2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa help to mitigate the likelihood of a long‐term devastating effect of the coronavirus disease (COVID‐19) outbreak on the African con tinent? Despite COVID‐19 spreading quickly across the globe after being first reported in Wuhan, China on December 31, 2019, African countries remained relatively unaffected until the second week of March 2020. The majority of Africa countries have been at low to moderate risk. However, they have expe...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andre M. N. Renzaho Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Estimating Consignment ‐Level Infestation Rates from the Proportion of Consignment that Failed Border Inspection: Possibilities and Limitations in the Presence of Overdispersed Data
AbstractIntroduction of pests and diseases through trade is one of the main socioecological challenges worldwide. Targeted sampling at border security can efficiently provide information about biosecurity threats and also reduce pest entry risk. Prioritizing sampling effort requires knowing which pathways are most infested. However, border security inspection data are often right ‐censored, as inspection agencies often only report that a consignment has failed inspection (i.e., there was at least one unit infested), not how many infested units were found. A method has been proposed to estimate the mean infestation rate o...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rapha ël Trouvé, Andrew P. Robinson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Indiscriminate, Irrelevant, and Sometimes Wrong: Causal Misconceptions about Climate Change
AbstractPrior research demonstrates widespread persistence of beliefs about climate change causes and risks that are arguably misconceptions. They include believing pollution causes climate change, believing ozone depletion causes climate change, the combination of these two “green beliefs,” referred to asenvironmental problems, and believing natural climate variation significantly contributes to current climate trends. Each of these causal beliefs has the potential to weaken or divert support away from effective climate change risk mitigation policies. To assess this potential, we explore the nature and preval...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Whitney Fleming, Adam L. Hayes, Katherine M. Crosman, Ann Bostrom Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Portfolio Seismic Loss Estimation and Risk ‐based Critical Scenarios for Residential Wooden Houses in Victoria, British Columbia, and Canada
This study presents a city ‐wide seismic risk assessment of single‐family wooden houses in Victoria, British Columbia, and Canada. The novelty and uniqueness of this study include considerations of detailed building‐by‐building exposure model for residential houses, current national seismic hazard model for Canada, an d rigorous seismic fragility modeling of wooden houses based on nonlinear dynamic analysis of structures subjected to mainshock‐aftershock sequences. A full consideration of stochastic event scenarios in probabilistic seismic risk analysis allows the identification of critical scenarios from overa l...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katsuichiro Goda, Lizhong Zhang, Solomon Tesfamariam Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Expected Implications of Globally Coordinated Cessation of Serotype 3 Oral Poliovirus Vaccine (OPV) Before Serotype 1 OPV
AbstractGlobally coordinated cessation of all three serotypes of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) represents a critical part of a successful polio endgame, which the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) plans to conduct in phases, with serotype 2 OPV cessation completed in mid 2016. Although in 2016 the GPEI expected to globally coordinate cessation of the remaining OPV serotypes (1 and 3) by 2021, continuing transmission of serotype 1 wild polioviruses to date makes those plans obsolete. With increasing time since the last reported polio case caused by serotype 3 wild poliovirus (in November 2012) leading to high confi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Kitchen Hygiene in the Spotlight: How Cooking Shows Influence Viewers ’ Hygiene Practices
AbstractPoor hygiene when handling food is a major cause of foodborne illness. To investigate whether hygiene practices visible in television cooking shows influence viewers ’ kitchen hygiene, a study on the adoption of demonstrated hygiene behavior was conducted under controlled, experimental conditions. In a study ostensibly on cooking by following recipes participants (n = 65) were randomly assigned to one of three conditions, in which they watched a cooking video that differed only with regard to the hygiene behavior of the chef. In condition 1, the chef engaged in poor hygiene practices while preparing the dish,...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Severine Koch, Mark Lohmann, Jasmin Geppert, Rainer Stamminger, Astrid Epp, Gaby ‐Fleur Böl Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Analysis of Occurrences Associated with Air Traffic Volume and Air Traffic Controllers ’ Alertness for Fatigue Risk Management
AbstractFatigue is an inevitable hazard in the provision of air traffic services and it has the potential to degrade human performance leading to occurrences. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requires air navigation services which providers establish fatigue risk management systems (FRMS) based on scientific principles for the purpose of managing fatigue. To develop effective FRMSs, it is important to investigate the relationship between traffic volume, air traffic management occurrences, and fatigue. Fifty ‐seven qualified ATCOs from a European Air Navigation Services provider participated in this re...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 12, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wen ‐Chin Li, Peter Kearney, Jingyi Zhang, Yueh‐Ling Hsu, Graham Braithwaite Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Key Factors and Coupling Relationships of Collaborative Governance for Disaster Prevention in China's Coastal Cities
AbstractIn order to discover the key factors for the successful implementation of the collaborative management of disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal cities and their causal coupling, based on the hypothesis, the main factor analysis method was used to analyze the key factors of the various subsystems of disaster prevention and mitigation, and to verify the correlation between the main factors and the successful implementation of coordinated governance for disaster prevention and mitigation in coastal cities. Interpretative structural model (ISM) is used to explore the coupling relationship between subsystems and...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Huang Xing, Li Xing Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Logistic Regression Models with Unspecified Low Dose –Response Relationships and Experimental Designs for Hormesis Studies
AbstractHormesis refers to a nonmonotonic (biphasic) dose –response relationship in toxicology, environmental science, and related fields. In the presence of hormesis, a low dose of a toxic agent may have a lower risk than the risk at the control dose, and the risk may increase at high doses. When the sample size is small due to practical, logistic, and ethical considerations, a parametric model may provide an efficient approach to hypothesis testing at the cost of adopting a strong assumption, which is not guaranteed to be true. In this article, we first consider alternative parameterizations based on the traditiona...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Steven Kim, Jeffrey Wand, Christina Magana ‐Ramirez, Jenelle Frej Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The More Who Die, the Less We Care: Evidence from Natural Language Analysis of Online News Articles and Social Media Posts
AbstractConsiderable amount of laboratory and survey ‐based research finds that people show disproportional compassionate and affective response to the scope of human mortality risk. According to research on “psychic numbing,” it is often the case that the more who die, the less we care. In the present article, we examine the extent of this phen omenon in verbal behavior, using large corpora of natural language to quantify the affective reactions to loss of life. We analyze valence, arousal, and specific emotional content of over 100,000 mentions of death in news articles and social media posts, and find that...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 24, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sudeep Bhatia, Lukasz Walasek, Paul Slovic, Howard Kunreuther Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Improved Transferability of Data ‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction
AbstractDamage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data ‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the m odel are often not fully representative for the situation where they...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dennis Wagenaar, Tiaravanni Hermawan, Marc Homberg, Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts, Heidi Kreibich, Hans Moel, Laurens M. Bouwer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision ‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model
This study aims to build on recent advances in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) to demonstrate methods and tools that may help resolve the tension between quantitative decision support and multiworldview approaches for addressing wicked problems. The study employs robust decision making (RDM), one common DMDU method, and a new version of the lake model, a simple and widely used model of a coupled human and natural system, to conduct a stylized analysis that reflects three different worldviews. The RDM analysis solves the decision challenge independently for each worldview and then compares each set of solution...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert J. Lempert, Sara Turner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Demonstrating the Benefits of Predictive Bayesian Dose –Response Relationships Using Six Exposure Studies of Cryptosporidium parvum
This study used a dose–response relation ship incorporating six separate data sets forCryptosporidium parvum. A Pareto II distribution with known priors was applied to one of the six data sets to calibrate the model, while the others were used for subsequent updating. While epidemiological principles indicate that local variations, host susceptibility, and organism strain virulence may vary, the six data sets all appear to be well characterized using the Bayesian approach. The adaptable model was applied to an existing data set forCampylobacter jejuni for model validation purposes, which yielded results that demonstr...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Frederick Bloetscher, Daniel Meeroff, Sharon C. Long, Jeanine D. Dudle Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication
AbstractIn Pakistan, annual poliovirus investment decisions drive quantities of supplemental immunization campaigns districts receive. In this article, we assess whether increased spending on poliovirus surveillance is associated with greater likelihood of correctly identifying districts at high risk of polio with assignment of an elevated “risk ranking.” We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012–2017, recording whether districts had been classified as “high risk” or “low risk” in each year. Through document review, we developed a decision tree to de...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ryan P. Scott, Alison C. Cullen, Guillaume Chabot ‐Couture Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Engaging Multiple Worldviews With Quantitative Decision Support: A Robust Decision ‐Making Demonstration Using the Lake Model
This study aims to build on recent advances in decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) to demonstrate methods and tools that may help resolve the tension between quantitative decision support and multiworldview approaches for addressing wicked problems. The study employs robust decision making (RDM), one common DMDU method, and a new version of the lake model, a simple and widely used model of a coupled human and natural system, to conduct a stylized analysis that reflects three different worldviews. The RDM analysis solves the decision challenge independently for each worldview and then compares each set of solution...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert J. Lempert, Sara Turner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Demonstrating the Benefits of Predictive Bayesian Dose –Response Relationships Using Six Exposure Studies of Cryptosporidium parvum
This study used a dose–response relation ship incorporating six separate data sets forCryptosporidium parvum. A Pareto II distribution with known priors was applied to one of the six data sets to calibrate the model, while the others were used for subsequent updating. While epidemiological principles indicate that local variations, host susceptibility, and organism strain virulence may vary, the six data sets all appear to be well characterized using the Bayesian approach. The adaptable model was applied to an existing data set forCampylobacter jejuni for model validation purposes, which yielded results that demonstr...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Frederick Bloetscher, Daniel Meeroff, Sharon C. Long, Jeanine D. Dudle Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Disease Surveillance Investments and Administration: Limits to Information Value in Pakistan Polio Eradication
AbstractIn Pakistan, annual poliovirus investment decisions drive quantities of supplemental immunization campaigns districts receive. In this article, we assess whether increased spending on poliovirus surveillance is associated with greater likelihood of correctly identifying districts at high risk of polio with assignment of an elevated “risk ranking.” We reviewed programmatic documents from Pakistan for the period from 2012–2017, recording whether districts had been classified as “high risk” or “low risk” in each year. Through document review, we developed a decision tree to de...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ryan P. Scott, Alison C. Cullen, Guillaume Chabot ‐Couture Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 8, August 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 8, Page 1507-1508, August 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Toward General Principles for Resilience Engineering
This article contributes to addressing this gap by identifying a potentially more comprehensive set of pri nciples for building general resilience in infrastructure‐dependent systems. In approaching this aim, we organize scattered notions from across the literature. To reflect the partly self‐organizing nature of infrastructure‐dependent systems, we compare and synthesize two lines of research on r esilience: resilience engineering and social‐ecological system resilience. Although some of the principles discussed within the two fields overlap, there are some nuanced differences. By comparing and synthesizing the kn...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David J. Yu, Michael L. Schoon, Jason K. Hawes, Seungyoon Lee, Jeryang Park, P. Suresh C. Rao, Laura K. Siebeneck, Satish V. Ukkusuri Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Incorporating Message Framing into Narrative Persuasion to Curb E ‐Cigarette Use Among College Students
This study examines the interaction effect of message format (narrative vs. nonnarrative) and message framing (gain vs. loss) in e ‐cigarette prevention targeting young adults. Results of a two‐way experiment (N = 439) revealed that transportation and discrete emotions mediated message effect on risk perception and behavioral intention. Compared to the gain ‐framed nonnarrative, the gain‐framed narrative reduced feelings of guilt, and guilt was negatively related to risk perception and positively related to behavioral intention. Thus, the gain‐framed narrative achieved desirable persuasive outcome through guilt&m...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sixiao Liu, Janet Z. Yang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk of Antibiotic ‐Resistant Staphylococcus aureus Dispersion from Hog Farms: A Critical Review
AbstractThe World Health Organization has declared antibiotic resistance “one of the biggest threats to global health.” Mounting evidence suggests that antibiotic use in industrial‐scale hog farming is contributing to the spread of antibiotic‐resistantStaphylococcus aureus. To capture available evidence on these risks, we searched peer ‐reviewed studies published before June 2017 and conducted a meta‐analysis of these studies’ estimates of the prevalence of swine‐associated, antibiotic‐resistantS. aureus in animals, humans, and the environment. The 166 relevant studies revealed consistent evid...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alexandra N. George, Jill R. Stewart, Jessica C. Evans, Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Safe ‐by‐Design: Stakeholders’ Perceptions and Expectations of How to Deal with Uncertain Risks of Emerging Biotechnologies in the Netherlands
AbstractAdvanced gene editing techniques such as Clustered Regularly Interspaced Short Palindromic Repeat (CRISPR)/Cas have increased the pace of developments in the field of industrial biotechnology. Such techniques imply new possibilities when working with living organisms, possibly leading to uncertain risks. In the Netherlands, current policy fails to address these uncertain risks because risk classification is determined process ‐wise (i.e., genetically modified organism [GMO] and non‐GMO), there is a strong focus on quantifiable risks, and the linearity within current governance (science–policy–societ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Britte Bouchaut, Lotte Asveld Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Study of Risk Relevance Reasoning Based on a Context Ontology of Railway Accidents
AbstractWith the application of risk management and accident response in the railway domain, risk detection and prevention have become key research topics. Many dangers and associated risk sources must be considered in collaborative scenarios of heavy ‐haul railways. In these scenarios, (1) various risk sources are involved in different data sources, and context affects their occurrence, (2) the relationships between contexts and risk sources in the accident cause mechanism need to be explicitly defined, and (3) risk knowledge reasoning needs t o integrate knowledge from multiple data sources to achieve comprehensive res...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tiancheng Cao, Wenxin Mu, Juanqiong Gou, Liyu Peng Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Case against Commercial Antivirus Software: Risk Homeostasis and Information Problems in Cybersecurity
This article develops and tests a revised version of risk homeostasis theory, which suggests that new cybersecurity technologies can sometimes have ill effects on security outcomes in the short run and little ‐to‐no effect over the long run. It tests the preliminary plausibility of four predictions from the revised risk homeostasis theory using new survey data from 1,072 respondents. The estimations suggest the plausible operation of a number of risk homeostasis dynamics: (1) commercial AV users are significantly more likely to self‐report a cybersecurity event in the past year than nonusers, even after correcting fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Eric Jardine Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Exploring Factors Influencing the Risky Cycling Behaviors of Young Cyclists Aged 15 –24 Years: A Questionnaire‐Based Study in China
This study aimed to examine the factor structure of the Young Cyclist Behavior Questionnaire (YCBQ) and investigate the relationships among demographic characteristics, cycling use ‐related variables, perceived risk, perceived cycling skills, and risky cycling behaviors among young people. A sample of 448 cyclists (mean age of 20.37 years) completed the questionnaire. Exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, and structural equation modeling were utilized. T he YCBQ had a clear factorial structure, items with high factor loadings, and good internal consistency. The five‐factor structure included traffi...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Cheng Wang, Weihua Zhang, Zhongxiang Feng, Kun Wang, Yuhua Gao Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self ‐Regulation
AbstractTo better understand how media exposure to terrorism ‐related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory ab ilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the med...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Enrico Rubaltelli, Giulia Priolo, Sara Scrimin, Ughetta Moscardino Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Flood Footprint Assessment: A Multiregional Case of 2009 Central European Floods
This article adapts the flood footprint method for multiple‐region assessment of total economic impact and applies it to the 2009 Central European Floods event. The flood footprint is an impact accounting framework based on the input–output meth odology to economically assess the physical damage (direct) and production shortfalls (indirect) within a region and wider economic networks, caused by a climate disaster. Here, the model is extended through the capital matrix, to enable diverse recovery strategies. According to the results, indirec t losses represent a considerable proportion of the total costs of a natura...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David Mendoza ‐Tinoco, Yixin Hu, Zhao Zeng, Konstantinos J. Chalvatzis, Ning Zhang, Albert E. Steenge, Dabo Guan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Reframing Resilience: Equitable Access to Essential Services
AbstractWe urgently need to put the concept of resilience into practice if we are to prepare our communities for climate change and exacerbated natural hazards. Yet, despite the extensive discussion surrounding community resilience, operationalizing the concept remains challenging. The dominant approaches for assessing resilience focus on either evaluating community characteristics or infrastructure functionality. While both remain useful, they have several limitations to their ability to provide actionable insight. More importantly, the current conceptualizations do not consider essential services or how access is impaire...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tom M. Logan, Seth D. Guikema Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Need to Reconcile Concepts that Characterize Systems Facing Threats
We present a conceptual framing to relate the concepts for management purposes. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: S. E. Galaitsi, Jeffrey M. Keisler, Benjamin D. Trump, Igor Linkov Tags: Perspective Source Type: research