Understanding the Ecological Validity of Relying Practice as a Basis for Risk Identification
This study was an attempt to study relying as a social practice, in particular analyzing how it had ecological validity in a social organization—how practice was responsive to the conditions in which it took place. This involved observational fieldwork and inductive, qualitative analysis on an offshore oil and gas production platform that was nearing the end of its design life and und ergoing refurbishment. The analysis produced four main categories of ecological validity: responsiveness to formal organization, responsiveness to situational contingency, responsiveness to information asymmetry, and responsiveness to s...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: T. Anderson, J. S. Busby, M. Rouncefield Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tiet ê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion
AbstractThe market share of Tiet ê–Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this invo lves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marcelo Ramos Martins, Marco Aur élio Pestana, Enrique Andrés López Droguett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Solar ‐Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections
We present a solar ‐centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near‐Earth interplanet ary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time‐independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions o f the obs...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kathrin Kirchen, William Harbert, Jay Apt, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Methodology for Assessing the Probability of Occurrence of Undesired Events in the Tiet ê–Paraná Inland Waterway Based on Expert Opinion
AbstractThe market share of Tiet ê–Paraná inland waterway (TPIW) in the transport matrix of the São Paulo state, Brazil, is currently only 0.6%, but it is expected to increase to 6% over the next 20 years. In this scenario, to identify and explore potential undesired events a risk assessment is necessary. Part of this invo lves assigning the probability of occurrence of events, which usually is accomplished by a frequentist approach. However, in many cases, this approach is not possible due to unavailable or nonrepresentative data. This is the case of the TPIW that even though ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marcelo Ramos Martins, Marco Aur élio Pestana, Enrique Andrés López Droguett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Solar ‐Centric Approach to Improving Estimates of Exposure Processes for Coronal Mass Ejections
We present a solar ‐centric approach to estimating the probability of extreme coronal mass ejections (CME) using the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO)/Large Angle and Spectrometric Coronagraph Experiment (LASCO) CME Catalog observations updated through May 2018 and an updated list of near‐Earth interplanet ary coronal mass ejections (ICME). We examine robust statistical approaches to the estimation of extreme events. We then assume a variety of time‐independent distributions fitting, and then comparing, the different probability distributions to the relevant regions of the cumulative distributions o f the obs...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kathrin Kirchen, William Harbert, Jay Apt, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short ‐Term Memory Algorithm
This article analyzes the linkages between the economy and armed conflict in India using annual frequency data for the period 1989 –2016, the maximum time period for which consistent data are available for the country. An adequate set of economic indicators was established to fully reflect the economic condition. Long short‐term memory (LSTM), which is a machine‐learning algorithm for time series, was employed to simulate the relationship between the economy and armed conflict events. In addition, LSTM was applied to predict the trend of armed conflict with two strategies: multiyear predictions and yearly predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mengmeng Hao, Jingying Fu, Dong Jiang, Fangyu Ding, Shuai Chen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS ‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia
This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS‐CoV inf ections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGF T criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three rese...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xin Chen, Abrar A. Chughtai, Chandini R. MacIntyre Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Simulating the Linkages Between Economy and Armed Conflict in India With a Long Short ‐Term Memory Algorithm
This article analyzes the linkages between the economy and armed conflict in India using annual frequency data for the period 1989 –2016, the maximum time period for which consistent data are available for the country. An adequate set of economic indicators was established to fully reflect the economic condition. Long short‐term memory (LSTM), which is a machine‐learning algorithm for time series, was employed to simulate the relationship between the economy and armed conflict events. In addition, LSTM was applied to predict the trend of armed conflict with two strategies: multiyear predictions and yearly predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 13, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mengmeng Hao, Jingying Fu, Dong Jiang, Fangyu Ding, Shuai Chen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Application of a Risk Analysis Tool to Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS ‐CoV) Outbreak in Saudi Arabia
This study is aimed to score the outbreak of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS‐CoV) in Saudi Arabia using both the original GFT and mGFT. The publicly available data on human cases of MERS‐CoV inf ections reported in Saudi Arabia (2012–2018) were sourced from the FluTrackers, World Health Organization, Saudi Ministry of Health, and published literature associated with MERS outbreaks investigations. The risk assessment of MERS‐CoV in Saudi Arabia was analyzed using the original GFT and mGF T criteria, algorithms, and thresholds. The scoring points for each criterion were determined by three rese...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 13, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xin Chen, Abrar A. Chughtai, Chandini R. MacIntyre Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Discourse on the Incorporation of Organizational Factors into Probabilistic Risk Assessment: Key Questions and Categorical Review
This article presents a discourse on the incorporation of organizational factors into probabilistic risk assessment (PRA)/probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), a topic of debate since the 1980s that has spurred discussions among industry, regulatory agencies, and the research community. The main contributions of this article include (1) identifying the four key open questions associated with this topic; (2) framing ongoing debates by considering differing perspectives around each question; (3) offering a categorical review of existing studies on this topic to justify the selection of each question and to analyze the chall...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 9, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Justin Pence, Zahra Mohaghegh Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Reflective Listening Visualization: Enhancing Interdisciplinary Disaster Research through the Use of Visualization Techniques
AbstractReflective Listening Visualization is an interdisciplinary research method and iterative process that includes the participation and involvement of multiple team members of different disciplines when (1) conducting in ‐depth interviews, (2) performing thematic analysis of the interview data, (3) using the emergent themes as basis to design visual representations of the themes, (4) presenting the visuals back to the interviewee for feedback, and (5) using the feedback to confirm the visual, refine the existing v isual, or to create a new visual. Fundamentally, the Reflective Listening Visualization technique is an...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: JoAnne DeRouen, Kari J. Smith Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan
AbstractMany countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV ‐using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oS...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach
AbstractThe use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower ri sk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relations...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 3, March 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 3, Page 439-441, March 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From The Editors Source Type: research

Reflective Listening Visualization: Enhancing Interdisciplinary Disaster Research through the Use of Visualization Techniques
AbstractReflective Listening Visualization is an interdisciplinary research method and iterative process that includes the participation and involvement of multiple team members of different disciplines when (1) conducting in ‐depth interviews, (2) performing thematic analysis of the interview data, (3) using the emergent themes as basis to design visual representations of the themes, (4) presenting the visuals back to the interviewee for feedback, and (5) using the feedback to confirm the visual, refine the existing v isual, or to create a new visual. Fundamentally, the Reflective Listening Visualization technique is an...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: JoAnne DeRouen, Kari J. Smith Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Insights From Modeling Preventive Supplemental Immunization Activities as a Strategy to Eliminate Wild Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan
AbstractMany countries use supplemental immunization activities (SIAs) with oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to keep their population immunity to transmission high using preventive, planned SIAs (pSIAs) and outbreaks response SIAs (oSIAs). Prior studies suggested that investment in pSIAs saved substantial health and financial costs due to avoided outbreaks. However, questions remain about the benefits of SIAs, particularly with the recent introduction of inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV) into routine immunization in all OPV ‐using countries. The mounting costs of polio eradication activities and the need to respond to oS...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Human Error in Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Deployment: A System Dynamics Approach
AbstractThe use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various applications have grown with maturing technology and improved accessibility. The deployment of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extremities in the Antarctic. A thorough analysis of risks is therefore crucial for formulating effective risk control policies and achieving a lower ri sk of loss. Existing risk analysis approaches focused predominantly on the technical aspects, as well as identifying static cause and effect relations...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 3, March 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 3, Page 439-441, March 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From The Editors Source Type: research

Support for the Deployment of Climate Engineering: A Comparison of Ten Different Technologies
AbstractDue to the renewed increase in CO2 emissions seen in recent years, the deployment of climate engineering technologies might become necessary if the global temperature increase is to be kept within 1.5 °C. If climate engineering is to be deployed, however, public support is required. The present study hence compared public support for a broad range of climate engineering technologies. Further, the factors that drive public support were investigated and compared across the technologies. In an onli ne survey conducted in Switzerland, respondents (n = 1,575) were randomly allocated to the description of 1 of 10 cli...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marilou Jobin, Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Affordability of Flood Risk Property ‐Level Adaptation Measures
This article provides a starting point for investigating the potential rate of unaffordability of flood risk property‐level adaptation measures across Europe using two definitions of affordability, which are combined with two d ifferent affordability thresholds from within flood risk research. It uses concepts of investment and payment affordability, with affordability thresholds based on residual income and expenditure definitions of unaffordability. These concepts, in turn, are linked with social justice through fairness concerns, in that, all should have equal capability to act, of which affordability is one avenue. I...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 27, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul Hudson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Organizational Risk: “Muddling Through” 40 Years of Research
AbstractThe recognition that organizations are a part of adverse outcomes has become commonplace in risk research. Social organization is a key theme in relation to risk minimization through institutional control and monitoring, and in how organizations are connected to society's perceptions of risk (beyond outcomes). The article reviews progress made in research on organizational risk over the last four decades and the contributions made to the field by fieldwork and descriptive approaches, understanding risk as partly determined by organizational context. A key issue for risk analysis is to figure out what these insights...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 24, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenneth Pettersen Gould Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Who Should Pay for Interdependent Risk? Policy Implications for Security Interdependence Among Airports
AbstractWe study interdependent risks in security, and shed light on the economic and policy implications of increasing security interdependence in presence of reactive attackers. We investigate the impact of potential public policy arrangements on the security of a group of interdependent organizations, namely, airports. Focusing on security expenditures and costs to society, as assessed by a social planner, to individual airports and to attackers, we first develop a game ‐theoretic framework, and derive explicit Nash equilibrium and socially optimal solutions in the airports network. We then conduct numerical experimen...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 24, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gabriel Kuper, Fabio Massacci, Woohyun Shim, Julian Williams Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Organizational Risk: “Muddling Through” 40 Years of Research
AbstractThe recognition that organizations are a part of adverse outcomes has become commonplace in risk research. Social organization is a key theme in relation to risk minimization through institutional control and monitoring, and in how organizations are connected to society's perceptions of risk (beyond outcomes). The article reviews progress made in research on organizational risk over the last four decades and the contributions made to the field by fieldwork and descriptive approaches, understanding risk as partly determined by organizational context. A key issue for risk analysis is to figure out what these insights...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenneth Pettersen Gould Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Who Should Pay for Interdependent Risk? Policy Implications for Security Interdependence Among Airports
AbstractWe study interdependent risks in security, and shed light on the economic and policy implications of increasing security interdependence in presence of reactive attackers. We investigate the impact of potential public policy arrangements on the security of a group of interdependent organizations, namely, airports. Focusing on security expenditures and costs to society, as assessed by a social planner, to individual airports and to attackers, we first develop a game ‐theoretic framework, and derive explicit Nash equilibrium and socially optimal solutions in the airports network. We then conduct numerical experimen...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 22, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gabriel Kuper, Fabio Massacci, Woohyun Shim, Julian Williams Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Intentions to Seek Information About the Influenza Vaccine: The Role of Informational Subjective Norms, Anticipated and Experienced Affect, and Information Insufficiency Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated People
AbstractWhen deciding whether to vaccinate, people often seek information through consequential processes that are not currently well understood. A survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,091) explored the factors associated with intentions to seek influenza vaccine information in the 2018 –2019 influenza season. This survey shed light on what motivates intentions to seek information about the influenza vaccine through the lens of the risk information seeking and processing (RISP) model. The model explained information‐seeking intentions well among both unvaccinated and vaccinated respond...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hang Lu, APPC 2018 –2019 ASK Group, Kenneth Winneg, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Dolores Albarracín Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Risk Information Seeking and Processing during an Infectious Disease Outbreak: The Case of Zika Virus
This study draws on the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM) to assess Zika virus information seeking and systematic processing, paying particular attention to the relationship between perceived knowledge and knowledge insufficiency. Novel risks, such as Zika, provide an interesting context for examining whether information ‐seeking models, such as PRISM, are able to predict information seeking when available information is limited or scarce. A cross‐sectional, online study of men and women of childbearing age (N = 494) residing in the state of Florida was conducted. Our results provide some support for the P...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 20, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Austin Y. Hubner, Shelly R. Hovick Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Intentions to Seek Information About the Influenza Vaccine: The Role of Informational Subjective Norms, Anticipated and Experienced Affect, and Information Insufficiency Among Vaccinated and Unvaccinated People
AbstractWhen deciding whether to vaccinate, people often seek information through consequential processes that are not currently well understood. A survey of a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults (N = 2,091) explored the factors associated with intentions to seek influenza vaccine information in the 2018 –2019 influenza season. This survey shed light on what motivates intentions to seek information about the influenza vaccine through the lens of the risk information seeking and processing (RISP) model. The model explained information‐seeking intentions well among both unvaccinated and vaccinated respond...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 19, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hang Lu, APPC 2018 –2019 ASK Group, Kenneth Winneg, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, Dolores Albarracín Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Improving Probability Judgment in Intelligence Analysis: From Structured Analysis to Statistical Aggregation
AbstractAs in other areas of expert judgment, intelligence analysis often requires judging the probability that hypotheses are true. Intelligence organizations promote the use of structured methods such as “Analysis of Competing Hypotheses” (ACH) to improve judgment accuracy and analytic rigor, but these methods have received little empirical testing. In this experiment, we pitted ACH against a factorized Bayes's theorem (FBT) method, and we examined the value of recalibration (coherentization) an d aggregation methods for improving the accuracy of probability judgment. Analytic techniques such as ACH and FBT w...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christopher W. Karvetski, David R. Mandel, Daniel Irwin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Risk Information Seeking and Processing during an Infectious Disease Outbreak: The Case of Zika Virus
This study draws on the Planned Risk Information Seeking Model (PRISM) to assess Zika virus information seeking and systematic processing, paying particular attention to the relationship between perceived knowledge and knowledge insufficiency. Novel risks, such as Zika, provide an interesting context for examining whether information ‐seeking models, such as PRISM, are able to predict information seeking when available information is limited or scarce. A cross‐sectional, online study of men and women of childbearing age (N = 494) residing in the state of Florida was conducted. Our results provide some support for the P...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Austin Y. Hubner, Shelly R. Hovick Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Social Influence, Risk and Benefit Perceptions, and the Acceptability of Risky Energy Technologies: An Explanatory Model of Nuclear Power Versus Shale Gas
AbstractRisky energy technologies are often controversial and debates around them are polarized; in such debates public acceptability is key. Research on public acceptability has emphasized the importance of intrapersonal factors but has largely neglected the influence of interpersonal factors. In an online survey (N = 948) with a representative sample of the United Kingdom, we therefore integrate interpersonal factors (i.e., social influence as measured by social networks) with two risky energy technologies that differ in familiarity (nuclear power vs. shale gas) to examine how these factors explain risk and benefit perce...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Judith I. M. Groot, Elisa Schweiger, Iljana Schubert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post ‐Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter‐Earthquake Heterogeneity
AbstractPost ‐earthquake fires are high‐consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low‐frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post‐earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source da ta. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter‐earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post‐ear thquake fires. ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Keisuke Himoto Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Review and Evaluation of the J100 ‐10 Risk and Resilience Management Standard for Water and Wastewater Systems
We present an analysis framework for evaluating such standards and apply it to the J100 ‐10 risk analysis standard for water and wastewater systems. In doing so, we identify gaps between practices recommended in the standard and the state of the art. While individual processes found within infrastructure risk analysis standards have been evaluated in the past, we present a foundation al review and focus specifically on water systems. By highlighting both the conceptual shortcomings and practical limitations, we aim to prioritize the shortcomings needed to be addressed. Key findings from this study include (1) risk defini...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Ying ‐Jeh Chen, Valerie Nicole Washington, Terje Aven, Seth David Guikema Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Characterization of Historical Methane Occurrence Frequencies from U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities with Implications for Risk Management, Operations, and Regulatory Policy
AbstractDefining a baseline for the frequency of occurrences at underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency ‐estimation methods are reviewed and broadened in this article to include critical factors of cause, severity, and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies given imperfect sampling. Frequencies for the thre e main storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil‐a...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard A. Schultz, Douglas W. Hubbard, David J. Evans, Sam L. Savage Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Stories for Interdisciplinary Disaster Research Collaboration
This article hypothesizes that doing so could foster a new mode of collaborative learning and discovery. People, including researchers, regularly tell stories to relate “what happened” based on their experience, often in ways that augment or contradict existing understandings. These stories provide naturalistic descriptions of context, complexity, and dynamic relationships in ways that formal theories, static data, and interpretations of findings can miss. They often do so memorably and engagingly, which makes them beneficial to researchers across disciplines and allows them to be integrated into their own work...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mithra Moezzi, Lori Peek Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety ‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach
AbstractAn empirical classification model based on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR ‐Sort) method has been previously proposed by the authors to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems (in particular, nuclear power plants [NPPs]) with respect to malevolent intentional acts. In this article, the model serves as the basis for an analysis aimed at determining a set o f protective actions to be taken (e.g., increasing the number of monitoring devices, reducing the number of accesses to the safety‐critical system) in order to effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the safety‐critical systems under c...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: T. R. Wang, N. Pedroni, E. Zio, V. Mousseau Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)
AbstractAdverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert ‐driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts st...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lyle D. Burgoon, Michelle Angrish, Natalia Garcia ‐Reyero, Nathan Pollesch, Anze Zupanic, Edward Perkins Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios
This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent ‐based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a ca se study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping p...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gina Tonn, Seth Guikema, Benjamin Zaitchik Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Roles of Vegetable Surface Properties and Sanitizer Type on Annual Disease Burden of Rotavirus Illness by Consumption of Rotavirus ‐Contaminated Fresh Vegetables: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractEnteric viruses are often detected in water used for crop irrigation. One concern is foodborne viral disease via the consumption of fresh produce irrigated with virus ‐contaminated water. Although the food industry routinely uses chemical sanitizers to disinfect post‐harvest fresh produce, it remains unknown how sanitizer and fresh produce properties affect the risk of viral illness through fresh produce consumption. A quantitative microbial risk assessment m odel was conducted to estimate (i) the health risks associated with consumption of rotavirus (RV)‐contaminated fresh produce with different surface prop...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Miyu Fuzawa, Rebecca Lee Smith, Kang ‐Mo Ku, Joanna L. Shisler, Hao Feng, John A. Juvik, Thanh H. Nguyen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Deep Learning Models for Health and Safety Risk Prediction in Power Infrastructure Projects
In this study, we used a text ‐mining approach for retrieving meaningful terms from data and develop six deep learning (DL) models for H&S risks management in power infrastructure. The DL models include DNNclassify (risk or no risk), DNNreg1 (loss time), DNNreg2 (body injury), DNNreg3 (plant and fleet), DNNreg4 (equipment), and DNNreg5 (environment). An H&S risk database obtained from a leading UK power infrastructure construction company was used in developing the models using the H2O framework of the R language. Performances of DL models were assessed and benchmarked with existing models using test data and app...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anuoluwapo Ajayi, Lukumon Oyedele, Hakeem Owolabi, Olugbenga Akinade, Muhammad Bilal, Juan Manuel Davila Delgado, Lukman Akanbi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic
AbstractWith the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and negl ect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Premature Deaths, Statistical Lives, and Years of Life Lost: Identification, Quantification, and Valuation of Mortality Risks
AbstractMortality effects of exposure to air pollution and other environmental hazards are often described by the estimated number of “premature” or “attributable” deaths and the economic value of a reduction in exposure as the product of an estimate of “statistical lives saved” and a “value per statistical life.” These terms can be misleading because the number of deaths advanced by exposure cannot be determined f rom mortality data alone, whether from epidemiology or randomized trials (it is not statistically identified). The fraction of deaths “attributed” to e...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James K. Hammitt, Peter Morfeld, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Thomas C. Erren Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster
AbstractReturn migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post ‐disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location‐ specific ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shingo Nagamatsu, Adam Rose, Jonathan Eyer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Persistent Risk ‐Related Worry as a Function of Recalled Exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Prior Trauma
This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andrew M Parker, Melissa L. Finucane, Lynsay Ayer, Rajeev Ramchand, Vanessa Parks, Noreen Clancy Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research