Carbon dioxide emissions and environmental risks: Long term and short term
This study examines the environmental challenge posed by CO2 emissions from both a long and short-term perspective. In the long term, despite efforts made by countries, our change-point detection analysis shows that there has been no structural change in CO2 emissions since 1950. Without significant efforts, the carbon budget corresponding to the Paris Agreement's target will be exhausted by 2046. To achieve this target, a significant reduction in global CO2 emissions of 3.22% per year is necessary. In the short term, COVID-19 is thought to have relieved pressure on CO2 emissions. However, this study shows that CO2 emissio...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 20, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sabri Boubaker, Zhenya Liu, Yuhao Mu, Yaosong Zhan Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Seeking information about waste ‐to‐energy incineration projects: The role of objective knowledge and benefit perceptions in an extended PRISM
This study suggests that risk managers carefully consider how to establish powerful communication tactics to shape these antecedents when introducing a “not in my backyard” project to the local community. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jing Zeng, Hongyu Duan, Zhonglin Zhou, Jingyan Song Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Hit ‐and‐run or hit‐and‐stay? Unintended effects of a stricter BAC limit
AbstractAlthough they comprise a relatively small subset of all traffic deaths, hit-and-run (HR) fatalities are both contemptible and preventable. We analyze longitudinal data from 1982 to 2008 to examine the effects of blood alcohol concentration (BAC) laws on HR traffic fatalities. Our results suggest that lower BAC limits may have an unintended consequence of increasing HR fatalities, whereas a similar effect is absent for non-HR fatalities. Specifically, we find that the adoption of a 0.08 BAC limit is associated to an 8.3% increase in HR fatalities. This unintended effect is more pronounced in urban areas and during w...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael T. French, Gulcin Gumus Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Exploring the exponential sensitivity of risk perception in the COVID ‐19 pandemic
This study analyzed the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and the South Korean public's risk perceptions from the outset of the pandemic to the recent past. More than 70 repeated cross-sectional surveys were conducted biweekly to measure individuals ’ risk perception. An autoregressive integrated moving average with explanatory variable time series analysis was used to characterize the relationship between the number of COVID-19 cases and level of risk perceptions. It revealed that individuals’ risk perception and the number of COVID-19 cas es were not linearly related but were logarithmically correlate...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Min ‐Kyu Kim, Bo‐Eun Lee, Ji‐Bum Chung Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Efficient border biosecurity inspection leverages superspreading to reduce biological invasion risk
AbstractBiological invasions are a growing threat to biodiversity, food security, and economies. Rising pressure from increased global trade requires improving border inspection efficiency. Here, we depart from the conventional consignment-by-consignment approach advocated in current inspection standards. Instead, we suggest a broader perspective: evaluating border inspection regimes based on their ability to reduce propagule pressure across entire pathways. Additionally, we demonstrate that most biosecurity pathways exhibit superspreading behavior, that is, consignments from the same pathway have varying infestation rates...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 9, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rapha ël Trouvé, Andrew P. Robinson Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Pollution risk and life insurance decisions: Microgeographic evidence from the United Kingdom
This article presents novel empirical evidence on the causal effect of pollution risk on life insurance decisions. We create a unique dataset by linking microgeographic air quality information to the confidential UK Wealth and Assets Survey. We identify an inverse N-shape relationship between pollution risk and life insurance adoption by exploiting the orthogonal variations in meteorological conditions. Over a given range above a threshold of exposure, rising pollution is associated with rising demand for life insurance, whereas at lower than the threshold levels of pollution, higher exposure risk reduces demand for insura...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 8, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Morakinyo O. Adetutu, Kayode A. Odusanya, Simona Rasciute, Eleni Stathopoulou Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Individual heat adaptation: Analyzing risk communication, warnings, heat risk perception, and protective behavior in three German cities
AbstractExtreme heat poses severe health threats, as the increased numbers of hospitalizations and fatalities during heat waves show, though little is known about adaptive behavior toward heat. We conducted a household survey on individual perceptions of heat stress and individual heat protection in the summer and autumn of 2019. In total, 1417 people from three medium-sized German cities participated via telephone or online. Based on the Protective Action Decision Model (PADM), which we adapted to heat stress, we analyzed links between risk perception, environmental and demographic factors, perceptions of stakeholders, di...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 7, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anna Heidenreich, Annegret H. Thieken Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 1, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research

Scenario development for safety assessment in deep geologic disposal of high ‐level radioactive waste and spent nuclear fuel: A review
AbstractRadiation and radioactive substances result in the production of radioactive wastes which require safe management and disposal to avoid risks to human health and the environment. To ensure permanent safe disposal, the performance of a deep geological repository for radioactive waste is assessed against internationally agreed risk-based standards. Assessing postclosure safety of the future system's evolution includes screening of features, events, and processes (FEPs) relevant to the situation, their subsequent development into scenarios, and finally the development and execution of safety assessment (SA) models. Gl...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 1, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kristopher L. Kuhlman, Jeroen Bartol, Alexander Carter, Andree Lommerzheim, Jens Wolf Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Reconciling risk as threat and opportunity: The social construction of risk in boardrooms
AbstractBoard directing is a continuous process of risk analysis and control in response to the duality of risk as threat and opportunity. Judgments are made and remade to simultaneously reduce the potential for damaging threats (e.g., fraud, reputation damage), while exploiting opportunities (e.g., new product development, mergers and acquisitions). Adopting an institutional logics approach, we explore this process of risk analysis and control through the varied subject identities (e.g., directorial roles), risk management practices (the procedures and tools used to identify, assess, and control risk), and risk objects (t...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 31, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Cormac Bryce, Simon Ashby, Patrick Ring Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

“There's a little bit of mistrust”: Red River Métis experiences of the H1N1 and COVID‐19 pandemics
We examined the perspectives of the Red River M étis citizens in Manitoba, Canada, during the H1N1 and COVID-19 pandemics and how they interpreted the communication of government/health authorities’ risk management decisions. For Indigenous populations, pandemic response strategies play out within the context of ongoing colonial relationships with government institutions characterized by significant distrust. A crucial difference between the two pandemics was that the Métis in Manitoba were prioritized for early vaccine access during H1N1 but not for COVID-19. Data collection involved 17 focus groups with Métis citize...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 30, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: S. Michelle Driedger, Ryan Maier, Gabriela Capurro, Cindy Jardine, Jordan Tustin, Frances Chartrand, Julianne Sanguins, Olena Kloss Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Managing risk and resilience in autonomous and intelligent systems: Exploring safety in the development, deployment, and use of artificial intelligence in healthcare
This article develops a qualitative analysis of the sociotechnical sources of risk and resilience associated with the development, deployment, and use of AI in healthcare, drawing on 40 in-depth interviews with participants involved in the development, management, and regulation of AI. Qualitative template analysis is used to examine sociotechnical sources of risk and resilience, drawing on and elaborating Macrae's (2022,Risk Analysis,42(9), 1999 –2025) SOTEC framework that integrates structural, organizational, technological, epistemic, and cultural sources of risk in AIS. This analysis explores an array of sociotechnic...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 22, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Carl Macrae Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Security screening metrics for information ‐sharing partnerships
AbstractRecent history has shown both the benefits and risks of information sharing among firms. Information is shared to facilitate mutual business objectives. However, information sharing can also introduce security-related concerns that could expose the firm to a breach of privacy, with significant economic, reputational, and safety implications. It is imperative for organizations to leverage available information to evaluate security related to information sharing when evaluating current and potential information-sharing partnerships. The “fine print” or privacy policies of firms can provide a signal of security ac...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 22, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wendy Yu, Zachary A. Collier, Shital Thekdi Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Differential effects of digital media platforms on climate change risk information ‐sharing intention: A moderated mediation model
This study analyzes the mechanisms through which risk messages about climate change lead to people's risk information-sharing intention, and how digital media platform type serves as a context that moderates those mechanisms. Our analysis is informed by the influence of presumed influence (IPI) model, and we adapt and expand that model in three ways. First, we apply the concept of perceived media reach to the context of digital media platforms, specifically news aggregators and social networking sites. Second, we integrate the two mediators of risk perception and presumed influence. Third, we examine potential moderating r...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 14, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hye ‐Jin Paek, Hyun Jung Oh, Thomas Hove Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Why did US urban homicide spike in 2020? A cross ‐sectional data analysis for the largest American cities
AbstractWorking with data about homicide victims and perpetrators from 50 of America's largest cities, we investigate the explanatory power of some familiar explanations for why murder in those cities rose sharply in 2020. The analysis reveals that the distribution of risk by race was essentially the same in 2020 as in 2019. That empirical finding challenges some theories of how racial tensions after the death of George Floyd may have driven homicide increases. Similarly, homicide growth was not concentrated in those cities with the greatest availability in 2020 of new and older guns, or among the cities that suffered the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 14, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mohammad M. Fazel ‐Zarandi, Arnold Barnett Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research