Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?
AbstractThe article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle ‐related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer. This may indicate that these respondents care ab...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adoption of Individual Flood Damage Mitigation Measures in New York City: An Extension of Protection Motivation Theory
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood ‐prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can have an important influence on individual decision making under risk, such as risk attitudes, time preferenc es, social norms, trust, and local flood risk management policies. Our results in relation to our main hypothesis are as follows. Individuals who live in high flood risk ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: W. J. Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Hans Moel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Shannon Entropy for Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Economic Disparity
This article introduces the quantification of Shannon entropy for income inequality across scales, including national ‐, subnational‐, and city‐level data. The probabilistic principles of Shannon entropy provide a new interpretation for uncertainty and risk related to economic disparity. Entropy and information‐based conflict rise as world incomes converge. High‐entropy instances can resemble both happy a nd prosperous societies as well as a socialist–communist social structure. Low entropy signals high‐risk tipping points for anomaly and conflict detection with higher confidence. Finally, spatial–t...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saurabh Mishra, Bilal M. Ayyub Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment —Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests
The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pre gnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%). (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Carl ‐Gustaf Bornehag, Efthymia Kitraki, Antonios Stamatakis, Emily Panagiotidou, Christina Rudén, Huan Shu, Christian Lindh, Joelle Ruegg, Chris Gennings Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products
AbstractOver time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic ‐talc–containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were be low levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Burns, Christy A. Barlow, Amber M. Banducci, Kenneth M. Unice, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Review of Recent Advances in Benchmark Dose Methodology
AbstractIn this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose –response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user‐friendly software and the lack...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Signe M. Jensen, Felix M. Kluxen, Christian Ritz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams
This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate ‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requireme nts for continuous fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R. Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Managing Safety ‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry
AbstractLow ‐probability, high‐impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low‐probability, high‐impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry‐wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety‐related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports acr...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christian C. Blanco, Felipe Caro, Charles J. Corbett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interventions Targeting Deep Tissue Lymph Nodes May Not Effectively Reduce the Risk of Salmonellosis from Ground Pork Consumption: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractThe inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated withSalmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter ‐to‐table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established. The model predicted an average of 45 cases of salmonellosis (95% CI = [19, 71]) per 100,000...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M. O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S. Dickson, H. Scott Hurd, Bing Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Practical Significance of Measurement Error in Pulmonary Function Testing Conducted in Research Settings
AbstractConventional spirometry produces measurement error by using repeatability criteria (RC) to discard acceptable data and terminating tests early when RC are met. These practices also implicitly assume that there is no variation across maneuvers within each test. This has implications for air pollution regulations that rely on pulmonary function tests to determine adverse effects or set standards. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,902 tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), each with eight maneuvers, for an individual with empirically obtained, plausibly normal pulmonary function. Default coeffic...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard B. Belzer, R. Jeffrey Lewis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimization of the Aflatoxin Monitoring Costs along the Maize Supply Chain
AbstractAn optimization model was used to gain insight into cost ‐effective monitoring plans for aflatoxins along the maize supply chain. The model was based on a typical Dutch maize chain, with maize grown in the Black Sea region, and transported by ship to the Netherlands for use as an ingredient in compound feed for dairy cattle. Six different scenarios, wit h different aflatoxin concentrations at harvest and possible aflatoxin production during transport, were used. By minimizing the costs and using parameters such as the concentration, the variance of the sampling plan, and the monitoring and replacement costs, the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. Focker, H. J. Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2117-2118, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems by Yacov Y.  Haimes, John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, 2019, 500+ pages, $127.69, ISBN 9781119173656 (cloth).
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 10, Page 2348-2349, October 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Pragmatic and (or) Constitutive? On the Foundations of Contemporary Risk Communication Research
AbstractA diffuse and interdisciplinary field, risk communication research, is founded on how we understand the process and purpose of communication more generally. To that end, this article outlines two fundamental functions of risk communication: (1) a pragmatic function, in which senders direct messages at audiences (and vice versa), with various intended (and sometimes unintended) effects; and (2) a constitutive function, in which messages re(create) what we mean by “risk” in a given social context, including how we can, and/or should relate to it. Although representing distinct epistemological and theoreti...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Laura N. Rickard Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Spatial Quantification of the Population Exposed to Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii Species Complexes in Europe: Estimating the Immunocompetent and HIV/AIDS Patients Under Risk
AbstractCryptococcus is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, causing serious clinical manifestations that can affect immunocompetent patients and can be particularly severe for immunocompromised patients. TheCryptococcus gattii s.s. (AFLP4/VGI),Cryptococcus tetragattii (AFLP/VGIV),Cryptococcus neoformans, andCryptococcus deneoformans have been isolated from both clinical and environmental sources in Europe. We aim to quantify the people in Europe and the entire Mediterranean area who are under risk associated with each of the three fungal pathogens in a spatially explicit way, generating a series of maps and population ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alberto J. Alaniz, Jorge G. Carvajal, Mario A. Carvajal, Massimo Cogliati, Pablo M. Vergara Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Impact of Uncertainty Parameter Distribution on Robust Decision Making Outcomes for Climate Change Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty
AbstractDeep uncertainty in future climatic and economic conditions complicates developing infrastructure designed to last several generations, such as water reservoirs. In response, analysts have developed multiple robust decision frameworks to help identify investments and policies that can withstand a wide range of future states. Although these frameworks are adept at supporting decisions where uncertainty cannot be represented probabilistically, analysts necessarily choose probabilistic bounds and distributions for uncertain variables to support exploratory modeling. The implications of these assumptions on the analyti...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Julia Reis, Julie Shortridge Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Spatial Quantification of the Population Exposed to Cryptococcus neoformans and Cryptococcus gattii Species Complexes in Europe: Estimating the Immunocompetent and HIV/AIDS Patients Under Risk
AbstractCryptococcus is an important fungal pathogen worldwide, causing serious clinical manifestations that can affect immunocompetent patients and can be particularly severe for immunocompromised patients. TheCryptococcus gattii s.s. (AFLP4/VGI),Cryptococcus tetragattii (AFLP/VGIV),Cryptococcus neoformans, andCryptococcus deneoformans have been isolated from both clinical and environmental sources in Europe. We aim to quantify the people in Europe and the entire Mediterranean area who are under risk associated with each of the three fungal pathogens in a spatially explicit way, generating a series of maps and population ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alberto J. Alaniz, Jorge G. Carvajal, Mario A. Carvajal, Massimo Cogliati, Pablo M. Vergara Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Game Theory Approach for Assessment of Risk and Deployment of Police Patrols in Response to Criminal Activity in San Francisco
This study proposes a framework that incorporates two game theory models designed for the allocation of police officers to patrol shifts. In the first step, the interactions of three factors between the criminal and the operation captain are modeled as a zero ‐sum, noncooperative game, after which a mixed strategy Nash equilibrium method is used to derive the risk value for each district to be patrolled. In the second step, the risk values are used to compute the Shapley value for all 10 districts, for three different threat levels. A fair allocation o f police personnel based on the Shapley value is made with a minimum ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Cheng ‐Kuang Wu, Yi‐Ming Chen, Dachrahn Wu, Ching‐Lin Chi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Expertise Across Disciplines: Establishing Common Ground in Interdisciplinary Disaster Research Teams
AbstractHazards and disasters arise from interactions between environmental and social processes, so interdisciplinary research is crucial in understanding and effectively managing them. Despite support and encouragement from funding agencies, universities, and journals and growing interest from researchers, interdisciplinary disaster research teams face significant obstacles, such as the difficulty of establishing effective communication and understanding across disciplines. Better understanding of interdisciplinary teamwork can also have important practical benefits for operational disaster planning and  response.So...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonathan M. Gilligan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics
AbstractIn this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long ‐term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization meth odology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders)...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Expertise Across Disciplines: Establishing Common Ground in Interdisciplinary Disaster Research Teams
AbstractHazards and disasters arise from interactions between environmental and social processes, so interdisciplinary research is crucial in understanding and effectively managing them. Despite support and encouragement from funding agencies, universities, and journals and growing interest from researchers, interdisciplinary disaster research teams face significant obstacles, such as the difficulty of establishing effective communication and understanding across disciplines. Better understanding of interdisciplinary teamwork can also have important practical benefits for operational disaster planning and  response.So...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonathan M. Gilligan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Prioritization of Island Nations as Refuges from Extreme Pandemics
AbstractIn this conceptual article with illustrative data, we suggest that it is useful to rank island nations as potential refuges for ensuring long ‐term human survival in the face of catastrophic pandemics (or other relevant existential threats). Prioritization could identify the several island nations that are most suitable for targeting social and political preparations and further investment in resiliency. We outline a prioritization meth odology and as an initial demonstration, we then provide example rankings by considering 20 sovereign island states (all with populations greater than 250,000 and no land borders)...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matt Boyd, Nick Wilson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

How Business Interests and Government Inaction Led to the Humidifier Disinfectant Disaster in South Korea: Implications for Better Risk Governance
This article takes up that topic, discussing the governmen t's role in dealing with the risk regarding the humidifier disinfectant. We pay particular attention to the unequal nature of the uncertainty produced by the distorted socioeconomic structure. Through in‐depth interviews with key informants and an examination of relevant documents from the governm ent, civic groups, and newspapers, we find that the government had increasingly acknowledged the risk, yet their inaction failed to stop the high number of casualties, and they have only recently responded proactively. The uncertainty of the risk was unevenly distribute...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Young Jun Choi, Mi Sun Jeon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessment of the Dose –Response Relationship Between Folate Exposure and Cognitive Impairment: Synthesizing Data from Documented Studies
This study aimed to estimate a quantitative dose–response relations hip between folate exposure and the risk of cognitive impairment among older adults with vitamin B12 deficiency using “probabilistic meta‐analysis,” a novel approach for synthesizing data from observational studies. Second‐order multistage regression was identified as the best‐fit model fo r the association between the probability of cognitive impairment and serum folate levels based on data generated by randomly sampling probabilistic distributions with parameters estimated based on summarized information reported in relevant publi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Bing Wang, Nadine R. Sahyoun, Kan Shao, Enakshy Dutta, Jennifer Clarke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

How Business Interests and Government Inaction Led to the Humidifier Disinfectant Disaster in South Korea: Implications for Better Risk Governance
This article takes up that topic, discussing the governmen t's role in dealing with the risk regarding the humidifier disinfectant. We pay particular attention to the unequal nature of the uncertainty produced by the distorted socioeconomic structure. Through in‐depth interviews with key informants and an examination of relevant documents from the governm ent, civic groups, and newspapers, we find that the government had increasingly acknowledged the risk, yet their inaction failed to stop the high number of casualties, and they have only recently responded proactively. The uncertainty of the risk was unevenly distribute...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Young Jun Choi, Mi Sun Jeon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessment of the Dose –Response Relationship Between Folate Exposure and Cognitive Impairment: Synthesizing Data from Documented Studies
This study aimed to estimate a quantitative dose–response relations hip between folate exposure and the risk of cognitive impairment among older adults with vitamin B12 deficiency using “probabilistic meta‐analysis,” a novel approach for synthesizing data from observational studies. Second‐order multistage regression was identified as the best‐fit model fo r the association between the probability of cognitive impairment and serum folate levels based on data generated by randomly sampling probabilistic distributions with parameters estimated based on summarized information reported in relevant publi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Bing Wang, Nadine R. Sahyoun, Kan Shao, Enakshy Dutta, Jennifer Clarke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber ‐Attack Game
This study examines how exploiting biases in probability judgment can enhance deterrence using a fixed allocation of defensive resources. We investigate attacker anchoring heuristics for conjunctive events with missing information to distort attacker estimates of success for targets with equal defensive resources. We designed and conducted a behavioral experiment functioning as an analog cyber attack with multiple targets requiring three stages of attack to successfully acquire a target. Each stage is associated with a probability of successfully attacking a layer of defense, reflecting the allocation of resources for each...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sarah A. Kusumastuti, Jim Blythe, Heather Rosoff, Richard S. John Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Defender –Attacker Games with Asymmetric Player Utilities
This study considers a situation where the defender's utility is the system survivability and the attacker's utility is the expected number of destroyed elements in the system. We investigate possible attack strategies under these two different utilities and compare (a) the conservative defense strategy when the attack utility is unknown to the defender with (b) the optimal defense strategy when the attack utility is known to the defender. We show that the conservative protection strategy is still optimal under asymmetric utilities when the contest intensity is smaller than one. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Qingqing Zhai, Rui Peng, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Behavioral Determinants of Target Shifting and Deterrence in an Analog Cyber ‐Attack Game
This study examines how exploiting biases in probability judgment can enhance deterrence using a fixed allocation of defensive resources. We investigate attacker anchoring heuristics for conjunctive events with missing information to distort attacker estimates of success for targets with equal defensive resources. We designed and conducted a behavioral experiment functioning as an analog cyber attack with multiple targets requiring three stages of attack to successfully acquire a target. Each stage is associated with a probability of successfully attacking a layer of defense, reflecting the allocation of resources for each...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sarah A. Kusumastuti, Jim Blythe, Heather Rosoff, Richard S. John Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Linking Decision Theory and Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment: Tradeoffs Between Compliance and Efficacy for Waterborne Disease Interventions
AbstractAchieving health gains from the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals of universal coverage for water and sanitation will require interventions that can be widely adopted and maintained. Effectiveness —how an intervention performs based on actual use—as opposed to efficacy will therefore be central to evaluations of new and existing interventions. Incomplete compliance—when people do not always use the intervention and are therefore exposed to contamination—is thought to be responsible fo r the lower‐than‐expected risk reductions observed from water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions ba...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael A. L. Hayashi, Marisa C. Eisenberg, Joseph N. S. Eisenberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Defender –Attacker Games with Asymmetric Player Utilities
This study considers a situation where the defender's utility is the system survivability and the attacker's utility is the expected number of destroyed elements in the system. We investigate possible attack strategies under these two different utilities and compare (a) the conservative defense strategy when the attack utility is unknown to the defender with (b) the optimal defense strategy when the attack utility is known to the defender. We show that the conservative protection strategy is still optimal under asymmetric utilities when the contest intensity is smaller than one. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Qingqing Zhai, Rui Peng, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Extended Analysis and Evidence Integration of Chloroprene as a Human Carcinogen
Abstractβ‐Chloroprene is used in the production of polychloroprene, a synthetic rubber. In 2010, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Integrated Risk Information System “Toxicological Review of Chloroprene,” concluding that chloroprene was “likely to be carcinogenic to humans.” Thi s was based on findings from a 1998 National Toxicology Program (NTP) study showing multiple tumors within and across animal species; results from occupational epidemiological studies; a proposed mutagenic mode of action; and structural similarities with 1,3‐butadiene and vinyl chloride. Using mou ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sonja N Sax, P. Robinan Gentry, Cynthia Van Landingham, Harvey J. Clewell, Kenneth A. Mundt Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS ‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols
This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus ‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for t he exposed population. Results from a typi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Umesh Adhikari, Alexandre Chabrelie, Mark Weir, Kevin Boehnke, Erica McKenzie, Luisa Ikner, Meng Wang, Qing Wang, Kyana Young, Charles N. Haas, Joan Rose, Jade Mitchell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Extended Analysis and Evidence Integration of Chloroprene as a Human Carcinogen
Abstractβ‐Chloroprene is used in the production of polychloroprene, a synthetic rubber. In 2010, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published the Integrated Risk Information System “Toxicological Review of Chloroprene,” concluding that chloroprene was “likely to be carcinogenic to humans.” Thi s was based on findings from a 1998 National Toxicology Program (NTP) study showing multiple tumors within and across animal species; results from occupational epidemiological studies; a proposed mutagenic mode of action; and structural similarities with 1,3‐butadiene and vinyl chloride. Using mou ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sonja N Sax, P. Robinan Gentry, Cynthia Van Landingham, Harvey J. Clewell, Kenneth A. Mundt Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Case Study Evaluating the Risk of Infection from Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS ‐CoV) in a Hospital Setting Through Bioaerosols
This study uses Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment to develop a generalizable model that can assist with interpreting reported outbreak data or predict risk of infection with or without the recommended strategies. The exposure scenario includes a single index patient emitting virus ‐containing aerosols into the air by coughing, leading to short‐ and long‐range airborne exposures for other patients in the same room, nurses, healthcare workers, and family visitors. Aerosol transport modeling was coupled with Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the risk of MERS illness for t he exposed population. Results from a typi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Umesh Adhikari, Alexandre Chabrelie, Mark Weir, Kevin Boehnke, Erica McKenzie, Luisa Ikner, Meng Wang, Qing Wang, Kyana Young, Charles N. Haas, Joan Rose, Jade Mitchell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing Engineering Resilience for Systems with Multiple Performance Measures
AbstractRecently, efforts to model and assess a system's resilience to disruptions due to environmental and adversarial threats have increased substantially. Researchers have investigated resilience in many disciplines, including sociology, psychology, computer networks, and engineering systems, to name a few. When assessing engineering system resilience, the resilience assessment typically considers a single performance measure, a disruption, a loss of performance, the time required to recover, or a combination of these elements. We define and use a resilient engineered system definition that separates system resilience i...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Eric Specking, Bobby Cottam, Gregory Parnell, Edward Pohl, Matthew Cilli, Randy Buchanan, Zephan Wade, Colin Small Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 9, September 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Introduction to Resilience Analytics for Cyber –Physical–Social Networks
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 9, Page 1867-1869, September 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kash Barker, Jose E. Ramirez ‐Marquez, Giovanni Sansavini Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Pricing Lives: Guideposts for a Safer Society. W. Kip  Viscusi (2018). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 9, Page 2113-2116, September 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James K. Hammitt Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

The Psychophysics of Terror Attack Casualty Counts
This study sought to characterize the “psychophysical function” relating terror attack casualty counts to the severity of the affective and cognitive reactions they elicit. We recruitedn = 684 Mechanical Turk participants to read a realistic vignette depicting either a biological or radiological terror attack, whose death toll ranged from 20 to 50,000, and rated their levels of fear and anger along with the attack's severity. Even when controlling for the perceived plausibility of the scenarios, participants ’ severity ratings of each attack were logarithmic with respect to casualty count, while ratings o...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matt Baucum, Richard John Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Model Thinker: What You Need to Know to Make Data Work for You by Scott E. Page, Basic Books, New York, NY, 2018, 448 pages (hard cover), ISBN: 9780465094622, $19.65.
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Modeling Pathology Workload and Complexity to Manage Risks and Improve Patient Quality and Safety
AbstractAnatomic pathology (AP) laboratories provide critical diagnostic information that help determine patient treatments and outcomes, but the risks of AP operations and their impact on patient safety and quality of care remain poorly recognized and undermanaged. Hospital ‐based laboratories face an operational and risk management challenge because clinical work of unknown quantity and complexity arrives with little advance notice, which results in fluctuations in workload that can push operations beyond planned capacity, leading to diagnostic delays and potential errors. Modeling the dynamics of workload and complexi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David M. Vanlandingham, Wesley Hampton, Kimberly M. Thompson, Kamran Badizadegan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of Multicriteria Decision Analysis Algorithms in Food Safety: A Case Study on Emerging Zoonoses Prioritization
AbstractDecision making in food safety is a complex process that involves several criteria of different nature like the expected reduction in the number of illnesses, the potential economic or health ‐related cost, or even the environmental impact of a given policy or intervention. Several multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithms are currently used, mostly individually, in food safety to rank different options in a multifactorial environment. However, the selection of the MCDA algorit hm is a decision problem on its own because different methods calculate different rankings. The aim of this study was to compare ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alberto Garre, Geraldine Bou é, Pablo S. Fernández, Jeanne‐Marie Membré, Jose A. Egea Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research