Quantitative Risk Assessment: Developing a Bayesian Approach to Dichotomous Dose –Response Uncertainty
This article introduces a novel approach that addresses many of the challenges seen while providing a fully Bayesian framework. Furthermore, in contrast to methods that use Monte Carlo Markov Chain, we approximate the posterior density using maximuma posteriori estimation. The approximation allows for an accurate and reproducible estimate while maintaining the speed of maximum likelihood, which is crucial in many applications such as processing massive high throughput data sets. We assess this method by applying it to empirical laboratory dose –response data and measuring the coverage of confidence limits for the BMD...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, Todd Blessinger, Kan Shao, Bruce C. Allen, Louis Olszyk, J. Allen Davis, Jeffrey S Gift Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross ‐National Death Risk
This article considers whether a nation that fares relatively well (or badly) on a particular dimension of mortality risk tends also to do so on others. Working with 2016 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we focus on six causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early ‐childhood diseases, and both communicable and noncommunicable diseases beyond early childhood. We consider data from all 26 nations that had populations of at least 50 million in 2016, as well as 15 clusters of smaller nations that are similar in longevity (e.g., Scandinavia). We use an analytic method tha...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Arnold Barnett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Risk Assessment: Developing a Bayesian Approach to Dichotomous Dose –Response Uncertainty
This article introduces a novel approach that addresses many of the challenges seen while providing a fully Bayesian framework. Furthermore, in contrast to methods that use Monte Carlo Markov Chain, we approximate the posterior density using maximuma posteriori estimation. The approximation allows for an accurate and reproducible estimate while maintaining the speed of maximum likelihood, which is crucial in many applications such as processing massive high throughput data sets. We assess this method by applying it to empirical laboratory dose –response data and measuring the coverage of confidence limits for the BMD...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, Todd Blessinger, Kan Shao, Bruce C. Allen, Louis Olszyk, J. Allen Davis, Jeffrey S Gift Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross ‐National Death Risk
This article considers whether a nation that fares relatively well (or badly) on a particular dimension of mortality risk tends also to do so on others. Working with 2016 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we focus on six causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early ‐childhood diseases, and both communicable and noncommunicable diseases beyond early childhood. We consider data from all 26 nations that had populations of at least 50 million in 2016, as well as 15 clusters of smaller nations that are similar in longevity (e.g., Scandinavia). We use an analytic method tha...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Arnold Barnett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Communication for Empowerment: Interventions in a Rohingya Refugee Settlement
This article takes up one situation where the possibility of disempowerment is salient, that of Rohingya refugees who were evi cted from their homes in Myanmar and forced to cross the border into neighboring Bangladesh. In their plight, we see the twin elements of marginalization and displacement acting jointly to produce heightened vulnerability to the risks from extreme weather. Building on a relational model of risk comm unication, a consortium of researchers and practitioners designed a risk communication training workshop that featured elements of empowerment‐based practice. The program was implemented in two refuge...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Raul P. Lejano, Muhammad Saidur Rahman, Laila Kabir Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges
AbstractAs part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis andRisk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors ’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk‐related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Anthony Cox, Vicki Bier, Jim Lambert, Karen Lowrie, Warner North, Michael Siegrist, Felicia Wu Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats
AbstractThe increasing need to manage biosecurity threats, such as diseases, zoonoses, and biological weapons, poses serious challenges for risk analysts and policymakers. These threats are large in number, can occur concurrently, and may cause multiple tangible and intangible impacts. They often have an emerging nature, exacerbated by incomplete evidence about their probability of occurrence and potential impacts. There is also a limited amount of time and resources available to evaluate the risks posed by each threat, and it is difficult to learn from past projects. On the other hand, there is also a need to provide poli...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, L. Alberto Franco, Ashley Carreras Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Factor Analysis Approach Toward Reconciling Community Vulnerability and Resilience Indices for Natural Hazards
AbstractThe concepts of vulnerability and resilience help explain why natural hazards of similar type and magnitude can have disparate impacts on varying communities. Numerous frameworks have been developed to measure these concepts, but a clear and consistent method of comparing them is lacking. Here, we develop a data ‐driven approach for reconciling a popular class of frameworks known as vulnerability and resilience indices. In particular, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis on a comprehensive set of variables from established indices measuring community vulnerability and resilience at the U.S. county le vel. Th...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul M. Johnson, Corey E. Brady, Craig Philip, Hiba Baroud, Janey V. Camp, Mark Abkowitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Communication for Empowerment: Interventions in a Rohingya Refugee Settlement
This article takes up one situation where the possibility of disempowerment is salient, that of Rohingya refugees who were evi cted from their homes in Myanmar and forced to cross the border into neighboring Bangladesh. In their plight, we see the twin elements of marginalization and displacement acting jointly to produce heightened vulnerability to the risks from extreme weather. Building on a relational model of risk comm unication, a consortium of researchers and practitioners designed a risk communication training workshop that featured elements of empowerment‐based practice. The program was implemented in two refuge...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Raul P. Lejano, Muhammad Saidur Rahman, Laila Kabir Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges
AbstractAs part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis andRisk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors ’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk‐related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Anthony Cox, Vicki Bier, Jim Lambert, Karen Lowrie, Warner North, Michael Siegrist, Felicia Wu Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats
AbstractThe increasing need to manage biosecurity threats, such as diseases, zoonoses, and biological weapons, poses serious challenges for risk analysts and policymakers. These threats are large in number, can occur concurrently, and may cause multiple tangible and intangible impacts. They often have an emerging nature, exacerbated by incomplete evidence about their probability of occurrence and potential impacts. There is also a limited amount of time and resources available to evaluate the risks posed by each threat, and it is difficult to learn from past projects. On the other hand, there is also a need to provide poli...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, L. Alberto Franco, Ashley Carreras Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Factor Analysis Approach Toward Reconciling Community Vulnerability and Resilience Indices for Natural Hazards
AbstractThe concepts of vulnerability and resilience help explain why natural hazards of similar type and magnitude can have disparate impacts on varying communities. Numerous frameworks have been developed to measure these concepts, but a clear and consistent method of comparing them is lacking. Here, we develop a data ‐driven approach for reconciling a popular class of frameworks known as vulnerability and resilience indices. In particular, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis on a comprehensive set of variables from established indices measuring community vulnerability and resilience at the U.S. county le vel. Th...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul M. Johnson, Corey E. Brady, Craig Philip, Hiba Baroud, Janey V. Camp, Mark Abkowitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Communication for Empowerment: Interventions in a Rohingya Refugee Settlement
This article takes up one situation where the possibility of disempowerment is salient, that of Rohingya refugees who were evi cted from their homes in Myanmar and forced to cross the border into neighboring Bangladesh. In their plight, we see the twin elements of marginalization and displacement acting jointly to produce heightened vulnerability to the risks from extreme weather. Building on a relational model of risk comm unication, a consortium of researchers and practitioners designed a risk communication training workshop that featured elements of empowerment‐based practice. The program was implemented in two refuge...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Raul P. Lejano, Muhammad Saidur Rahman, Laila Kabir Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Analysis: Celebrating the Accomplishments and Embracing Ongoing Challenges
AbstractAs part of the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the Society for Risk Analysis andRisk Analysis: An International Journal, this essay reviews the 10 most important accomplishments of risk analysis from 1980 to 2010, outlines major accomplishments in three major categories from 2011 to 2019, discusses how editors circulate authors ’ accomplishments, and proposes 10 major risk‐related challenges for 2020–2030. Authors conclude that the next decade will severely test the field of risk analysis. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Anthony Cox, Vicki Bier, Jim Lambert, Karen Lowrie, Warner North, Michael Siegrist, Felicia Wu Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Prioritizing and Managing Biosecurity Threats
AbstractThe increasing need to manage biosecurity threats, such as diseases, zoonoses, and biological weapons, poses serious challenges for risk analysts and policymakers. These threats are large in number, can occur concurrently, and may cause multiple tangible and intangible impacts. They often have an emerging nature, exacerbated by incomplete evidence about their probability of occurrence and potential impacts. There is also a limited amount of time and resources available to evaluate the risks posed by each threat, and it is difficult to learn from past projects. On the other hand, there is also a need to provide poli...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gilberto Montibeller, L. Alberto Franco, Ashley Carreras Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Factor Analysis Approach Toward Reconciling Community Vulnerability and Resilience Indices for Natural Hazards
AbstractThe concepts of vulnerability and resilience help explain why natural hazards of similar type and magnitude can have disparate impacts on varying communities. Numerous frameworks have been developed to measure these concepts, but a clear and consistent method of comparing them is lacking. Here, we develop a data ‐driven approach for reconciling a popular class of frameworks known as vulnerability and resilience indices. In particular, we conduct an exploratory factor analysis on a comprehensive set of variables from established indices measuring community vulnerability and resilience at the U.S. county le vel. Th...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 23, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul M. Johnson, Corey E. Brady, Craig Philip, Hiba Baroud, Janey V. Camp, Mark Abkowitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Case against Commercial Antivirus Software: Risk Homeostasis and Information Problems in Cybersecurity
This article develops and tests a revised version of risk homeostasis theory, which suggests that new cybersecurity technologies can sometimes have ill effects on security outcomes in the short run and little ‐to‐no effect over the long run. It tests the preliminary plausibility of four predictions from the revised risk homeostasis theory using new survey data from 1,072 respondents. The estimations suggest the plausible operation of a number of risk homeostasis dynamics: (1) commercial AV users are significantly more likely to self‐report a cybersecurity event in the past year than nonusers, even after correcting fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 21, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Eric Jardine Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction
AbstractOperational risk management of autonomous vehicles in extreme environments is heavily dependent on expert judgments and, in particular, judgments of the likelihood that a failure mitigation action, via correction and prevention, will annul the consequences of a specific fault. However, extant research has not examined the reliability of experts in estimating the probability of failure mitigation. For systems operations in extreme environments, the probability of failure mitigation is taken as a proxy of the probability of a fault not reoccurring. Usinga priori expert judgments for an autonomous underwater vehicle m...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mario P. Brito, Ian G. J. Dawson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 6, June 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 6, Page 1111-1112, June 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Thinking Better: Six Recent Books on Natural, Artificial, and Social Intelligence
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 6, Page 1302-1319, June 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Predicting the Validity of Expert Judgments in Assessing the Impact of Risk Mitigation Through Failure Prevention and Correction
AbstractOperational risk management of autonomous vehicles in extreme environments is heavily dependent on expert judgments and, in particular, judgments of the likelihood that a failure mitigation action, via correction and prevention, will annul the consequences of a specific fault. However, extant research has not examined the reliability of experts in estimating the probability of failure mitigation. For systems operations in extreme environments, the probability of failure mitigation is taken as a proxy of the probability of a fault not reoccurring. Usinga priori expert judgments for an autonomous underwater vehicle m...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 18, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mario P. Brito, Ian G. J. Dawson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Food Risks on the Web: Analysis of the 2017 Fipronil Alert in the Italian Online Information Sources
This article describes a study that analyzed how the Italian online information sources represented the fipronil alert, using web monitoring techniques and both manual and automatic content analysis methods. The results indicate that the alert was amplified because general news media could represent the alert within the frame of a political scandal, and because different social actors exploited the case. However, online information sources correctly communicated that the risks for consumers were low, reporting mainly what was officially communicated by the Italian health authorities. The study provides empirical evidence o...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 17, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mirko Ruzza, Barbara Tiozzo, Valentina Rizzoli, Mos é Giaretta, Laura D'Este, Licia Ravarotto Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Industry ‐Dominated Science Advisory Boards Are Perceived To Be Legitimate…But Only When They Recommend More Stringent Risk Management Policies
AbstractIn 2017, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) was criticized for two controversial directives that restricted the eligibility of academic scientists to serve on the agency's key science advisory boards (SABs). The EPA portrayed these directives as necessary to ensure the integrity of the SAB. Critics portrayed them as a tactic by the agency to advance a more industry ‐friendly deregulatory agenda. With this backdrop, this research examined board composition and its effect on the perceived legitimacy of risk management recommendations by the SAB. In an experiment, we presented participants with hypothetica...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joseph Árvai, Sara Goto Gray, Kaitlin T. Raimi, Robyn Wilson, Caitlin Drummond Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Sources of Belief in Personal Capability: Antecedents of Self ‐Efficacy in Private Adaptation to Flood Risk
This study provi des important insights for risk managers, suggesting that interventions involving social norms and personal competencies can be effective in stimulating self‐efficacy and, in turn, private flood mitigation. Interventions and research should clearly differentiate between general intention and the i mplementation of specific measures, and should address cumulative, synergistic, or tradeoff interrelations between multiple measures. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sebastian Seebauer, Philipp Babcicky Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection of the U.S. Electric Power Grid
AbstractThe purpose of this article is to introduce a risk analysis framework to enhance the cyber security of and to protect the critical infrastructure of the electric power grid of the United States. Building on the fundamental questions of risk assessment and management, this framework aims to advance the current risk analysis discussions pertaining to the electric power grid. Most of the previous risk ‐related studies on the electric power grid focus mainly on the recovery of the network from hurricanes and other natural disasters. In contrast, a disproportionately small number of studies explicitly investigate the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sean S. Baggott, Joost R. Santos Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Sources of Belief in Personal Capability: Antecedents of Self ‐Efficacy in Private Adaptation to Flood Risk
This study provi des important insights for risk managers, suggesting that interventions involving social norms and personal competencies can be effective in stimulating self‐efficacy and, in turn, private flood mitigation. Interventions and research should clearly differentiate between general intention and the i mplementation of specific measures, and should address cumulative, synergistic, or tradeoff interrelations between multiple measures. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sebastian Seebauer, Philipp Babcicky Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self ‐Regulation
AbstractTo better understand how media exposure to terrorism ‐related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory ab ilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the med...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Enrico Rubaltelli, Giulia Priolo, Sara Scrimin, Ughetta Moscardino Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection of the U.S. Electric Power Grid
AbstractThe purpose of this article is to introduce a risk analysis framework to enhance the cyber security of and to protect the critical infrastructure of the electric power grid of the United States. Building on the fundamental questions of risk assessment and management, this framework aims to advance the current risk analysis discussions pertaining to the electric power grid. Most of the previous risk ‐related studies on the electric power grid focus mainly on the recovery of the network from hurricanes and other natural disasters. In contrast, a disproportionately small number of studies explicitly investigate the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sean S. Baggott, Joost R. Santos Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Media Exposure to Terrorism and Perception of Immigrants as a Threat: The Role of Emotional Intelligence and Psychophysiological Self ‐Regulation
AbstractTo better understand how media exposure to terrorism ‐related images can lead to perceiving immigrants as more threatening, in the present study we manipulated participants’ exposure to media coverage of terrorist attacks and investigated how this may influence people's perception of Arab immigrants. Considering the important role of regulatory ab ilities when facing stressful events like terrorist attacks, we measured individual differences in both trait emotional intelligence and resting heart rate variability (HRV). Results showed that participants perceived Arab immigrants as more threatening in the med...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Enrico Rubaltelli, Giulia Priolo, Sara Scrimin, Ughetta Moscardino Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Framework for Cyber Security and Critical Infrastructure Protection of the U.S. Electric Power Grid
AbstractThe purpose of this article is to introduce a risk analysis framework to enhance the cyber security of and to protect the critical infrastructure of the electric power grid of the United States. Building on the fundamental questions of risk assessment and management, this framework aims to advance the current risk analysis discussions pertaining to the electric power grid. Most of the previous risk ‐related studies on the electric power grid focus mainly on the recovery of the network from hurricanes and other natural disasters. In contrast, a disproportionately small number of studies explicitly investigate the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sean S. Baggott, Joost R. Santos Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Sources of Belief in Personal Capability: Antecedents of Self ‐Efficacy in Private Adaptation to Flood Risk
This study provi des important insights for risk managers, suggesting that interventions involving social norms and personal competencies can be effective in stimulating self‐efficacy and, in turn, private flood mitigation. Interventions and research should clearly differentiate between general intention and the i mplementation of specific measures, and should address cumulative, synergistic, or tradeoff interrelations between multiple measures. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sebastian Seebauer, Philipp Babcicky Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch ‐German Rhine
AbstractFlood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision ‐support frameworks which rely on cost‐benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts for the distribution of risk reduction and apply it to support flood risk management decisions on a transboundary stretch of the Rhine River. Three types of interventions are considered: embankment heightening, making Room for the River, and changing the discharge distribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessio Ciullo, Jan H. Kwakkel, Karin M. De Bruijn, Neelke Doorn, Frans Klijn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Resilience ‐Based Approach to Risk Assessments—Building Resilient Organizations under Arctic Conditions
This article presents an alternative to these assessments by utilizing a resilience perspective, arguing that complex systems are inclined to variety and uncertainty regarding the results they produce and are therefore prone to systemic failures. A continuous improvement approach is a source of reliability when managing complex systems and is necessary to manage varieties and uncertainties. For an organization to understand how risk events occur, it is necessary to define what is believed to be the equilibrium of the system in time and space. By applying a resilience engineering (RE) perspective to risk assessment, it is p...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jacob Taarup ‐Esbensen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues, Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk
AbstractPrevious research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and per...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stefan Linde Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch ‐German Rhine
AbstractFlood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision ‐support frameworks which rely on cost‐benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts for the distribution of risk reduction and apply it to support flood risk management decisions on a transboundary stretch of the Rhine River. Three types of interventions are considered: embankment heightening, making Room for the River, and changing the discharge distribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessio Ciullo, Jan H. Kwakkel, Karin M. De Bruijn, Neelke Doorn, Frans Klijn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Resilience ‐Based Approach to Risk Assessments—Building Resilient Organizations under Arctic Conditions
This article presents an alternative to these assessments by utilizing a resilience perspective, arguing that complex systems are inclined to variety and uncertainty regarding the results they produce and are therefore prone to systemic failures. A continuous improvement approach is a source of reliability when managing complex systems and is necessary to manage varieties and uncertainties. For an organization to understand how risk events occur, it is necessary to define what is believed to be the equilibrium of the system in time and space. By applying a resilience engineering (RE) perspective to risk assessment, it is p...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jacob Taarup ‐Esbensen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues, Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk
AbstractPrevious research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and per...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stefan Linde Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Resilience ‐Based Approach to Risk Assessments—Building Resilient Organizations under Arctic Conditions
This article presents an alternative to these assessments by utilizing a resilience perspective, arguing that complex systems are inclined to variety and uncertainty regarding the results they produce and are therefore prone to systemic failures. A continuous improvement approach is a source of reliability when managing complex systems and is necessary to manage varieties and uncertainties. For an organization to understand how risk events occur, it is necessary to define what is believed to be the equilibrium of the system in time and space. By applying a resilience engineering (RE) perspective to risk assessment, it is p...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jacob Taarup ‐Esbensen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Politicization of Risk: Party Cues, Polarization, and Public Perceptions of Climate Change Risk
AbstractPrevious research shows that public perceptions of climate change risk are strongly related to the individual willingness to support climate mitigation and adaptation policy. In this article, I investigate how public perceptions of climate change risk are affected by communications from political parties and the degree of polarization among them. Specifically, using survey data from Sweden, Norway, Australia, and New Zealand, I study the relationship between party source cues, perceived polarization, and public perceptions of climate change risk. The results reveal a positive relationship between party cues and per...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stefan Linde Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Efficient or Fair? Operationalizing Ethical Principles in Flood Risk Management: A Case Study on the Dutch ‐German Rhine
AbstractFlood risk management decisions in many countries are based on decision ‐support frameworks which rely on cost‐benefit analyses. Such frameworks are seldom informative about the geographical distribution of risk, raising questions on the fairness of the proposed policies. In the present work, we propose a new decision criterion that accounts for the distribution of risk reduction and apply it to support flood risk management decisions on a transboundary stretch of the Rhine River. Three types of interventions are considered: embankment heightening, making Room for the River, and changing the discharge distribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessio Ciullo, Jan H. Kwakkel, Karin M. De Bruijn, Neelke Doorn, Frans Klijn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding the Relationship Between Direct Experience and Risk Perception of Natural Hazards
This study was conducted in a statistically representative sample of the city of Iquique, in northern Chile (n = 701), who completed a survey one month after the occurrence of an earthquake and tsunami (8.2 Mw). The survey assessed the experience and preparation actions of survivors in relation to this event.Using a structural equation model, we examined nine proposed relationships, six of which were significant. The final model had an adequate fit (χ² = 752.23,df = 283, comparative fit index [CFI] = 0.90, root mean square error of approximation [RMSEA] = 0.049).Direct experience showed the greatest influence on r...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 9, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nicol ás C. Bronfman, Pamela C. Cisternas, Paula B. Repetto, Javiera V. Castañeda, Eliana Guic Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research