Seasonal assessment of risks to canoeists ’ health in a Taiwanese recreational river
This study adopted a quantitative microbial risk assessment to analyze seasonal risks to canoeists ’ health in the Dongshan River, Taiwan. First, riverE. coli concentrations were statistically analyzed to determine the seasonal distributions. The exposure duration (ED) was determined by field observations. To propagate the parametric uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation was employed to model the probability distributions of seasonal pathogenicE. coli levels, ingestion rates, and ED for athletes. Finally, the beta-Poisson dose –response model was implemented to determine seasonal health risks for canoeists. The study res...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Chu ‐Chih Liu,
Cheng‐Shin Jang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
COVID ‐19 vaccine acceptance: A comparative longitudinal analysis of the association between risk perception, confidence, and the acceptance of a COVID‐19 vaccine
This article contributes to our understanding of the roles of risk perception and confidence in COVID-19 vaccines ’ acceptance by underlining that these relationships might differ at diverse levels of analysis. To foster vaccine uptake, it might be important to address individual concerns and persisting contextual characteristics, but increasing levels of perceived risk and confidence might not be a sufficien t strategy to increase vaccine acceptance rates. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mauro Martinelli,
Giuseppe A. Veltri Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Risk modelling of ESG (environmental, social, and governance), healthcare, and financial sectors
AbstractClimate change poses enormous ecological, socio-economic, health, and financial challenges. A novel extreme value theory is employed in this study to model the risk to environmental, social, and governance (ESG), healthcare, and financial sectors and assess their downside risk, extreme systemic risk, and extreme spillover risk. We use a rich set of global daily data of exchange-traded funds (ETFs) from 1 July 1999 to 30 June 2022 in the case of healthcare and financial sectors and from 1 July 2007 to 30 June 2022 in the case of ESG sector. We find that the financial sector is the riskiest when we consider the tail ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 22, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sajid M. Chaudhry,
Xihui Haviour Chen,
Rizwan Ahmed,
Muhammad Ali Nasir Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Micro ‐spatial flood risk assessment in Nagaon district, Assam (India) using GIS‐based multi‐criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and analytical hierarchy process (AHP)
AbstractNagaon is one of the highly flood-prone districts of Assam, India that recurrently experiences devastating floods resulting in the loss of lives and property and wreaking havoc on the district's socioeconomic infrastructure. Identification and mapping of spatial patterns of flood hazards, flood vulnerability, and flood risk zones (FRZs) of the district are, therefore, crucial for flood management and m itigation. The present study, therefore, attempts to delineate the FRZs of more than 930 villages in the Nagaon district by integrating the flood hazard and vulnerability layers in the geospatial environment using ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 21, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Manash Jyoti Bhuyan,
Nityananda Deka,
Ashish Saikia Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
From believing in climate change to adapting to climate change: The role of risk perception and efficacy beliefs
AbstractAre people more inclined to adapt to climate change if they believe that climate change is real, caused by human behavior, and/or brings negative consequences? Previous studies provided inconclusive results on the relationship between climate change perceptions and adaptation behavior. Using a longitudinal approach, we examined whether risk perception, self-efficacy, and outcome efficacy play a role in how and when climate change perceptions are associated with adaptation to pluvial flooding and heat stress in the Netherlands. As expected, stronger climate change perceptions were associated with stronger perception...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 20, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anne M. Valkengoed,
Goda Perlaviciute,
Linda Steg Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Evolutionary game analysis for multi ‐level collaborative governance under public crisis in China: From a value perception perspective
AbstractIn a risk society, the survival and development of humans are facing threats of complex and severe public crisis events. Public participation in collaborative governance (CG) of public crisis events is increasingly recognized as an important direction for the reform of the current and future emergency management system. Previous studies of CG have mainly focused on the macro level and ignored to address micro-level discussions of the behavioral strategy evolution of stakeholders. From a fresh value perception perspective, this study constructs an evolutionary game model to clarify the evolution mechanism of multi-l...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 17, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yingxin Chen,
Xin Liu,
Pandu R. Tadikamalla,
Mingming Qu,
Yiting Wang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A risk –risk trade‐off assessment of climate‐induced mortality risk changes
AbstractThe impact of climate change on human health was identified as a priority for the UN COP26 conference. In this article, we consider climate-induced changes to mortality risks and how to incorporate these formally in the policy appraisal process. In the United Kingdom (UK), the Value of Statistical Life (VSL) is used to monetarize the benefits of policies to reduce mortality risks but it remains an open, empirical question as to whether the current VSL ( £2.14 million per fatality prevented, December 2021 values) for traffic accidents should be applied in other contexts without any modification and particularly for...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Irene Mussio,
Susan Chilton,
Darren Duxbury,
Jytte Seested Nielsen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Climate risk and renewable energy technological innovation: An institutional environment perspective
AbstractTo explore whether climate risk (CR) affects renewable energy technological innovation (RETI) and its boundary conditions, this study examines the relationship between CR and RETI as moderated by institutional environment. Based on panel data of 60 countries for the period 2000 –2019, we show that CR is not conducive to RETI, and that its negative marginal impact shows an inverted U-shaped trend with the improvement of RETI. Heterogeneity analysis shows that floods and storms have the greatest negative impacts on RETI, and that innovations in solar and wind energy techno logies are more vulnerable to the adverse ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jinyu Chen,
Xianfeng Luo,
Qian Ding Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Epidemic propagation risk study with effective fractal dimension
AbstractIn this article, the risk of epidemic transmission on complex networks is studied from the perspective of effective fractal dimension. First, we introduce the method of calculating the effective fractal dimension DB${D}_B$ of the network by taking a scale-free network as an example. Second, we propose the construction method of administrative fractal network and calculate the DB${D}_B$. using the classical susceptible exposed infectious removed (SEIR) infectious disease model, we simulate the virus propagation process on the administrative fractal network. The results show that the larger the DB${D}_B$ is, the high...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 12, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Fuzhong Nian,
Fangfang Li Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 8, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Social power and perceived risk of contagious disease: High power leads to lower risk estimation of catching COVID ‐19
AbstractAn accurate estimation of COVID-19 contagion risk is important in terms of understanding the dynamic of disease transmission and health behavior. Previous research has documented that many health-related variables influence the risk estimation of communicable diseases. We expanded the current understanding by investigating whether health-irrelevant factors —such as one's sense of power—can have a systematic and consequential impact on perceived risks of catching the coronavirus. Based on the social distance theory of power, we propose that people in a higher power position develop a greater sense of social dist...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Heng Li Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A statistical approach for assessing cyber risk via ordered response models
AbstractProper evaluation of the risk associated to a cyber attack is a crucial aspect for many companies. There is an increasing need to plan for and implement effective ways to address cyber security, data security, and privacy protection. Estimating the risk of a successful cyber attack is an important issue, since this type of threat is proliferating and thus poses increasing danger to companies and the customers who use their services. While quantitative loss data are rarely available, it is possible to obtain a qualitative evaluation on an ordinal scale of severity of cyber attacks from experts of the sector. Hence, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 29, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Silvia Facchinetti,
Silvia Angela Osmetti,
Claudia Tarantola Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Mission risk control via joint optimization of sampling and abort decisions
AbstractInformation-driven mission abort is an effective way to control the failure risk of safety-critical systems during mission executions. We investigate the optimal sampling and mission abort decisions of partially observable safety-critical systems, where the underlying system health state can only be revealed by sampling. In contrast to previous studies, we employ partial health information to jointly determine: (a) whether to execute sampling, and (b) when to abort the mission in a dynamic manner, so as to minimize the expected total cost incurred by sampling, mission failure, and system malfunction. Dynamic sampli...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Li Yang,
Fanping Wei,
Qingan Qiu Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Flood hazard potential evaluation using decision tree state ‐of‐the‐art models
AbstractFloods occur frequently in Romania and throughout the world and are one of the most devastating natural disasters that impact people's lives. Therefore, in order to reduce the potential damages, an accurate identification of surfaces susceptible to flood phenomena is mandatory. In this regard, the quantitative calculation of flood susceptibility has become a very popular practice in the scientific research. With the development of modern computerized methods such as geographic information system and machine learning models, and as a result of the possibility of combining them, the determination of areas susceptible...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 26, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Romulus Costache,
Alireza Arabameri,
Iulia Costache,
Anca Cr ăciun,
Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam,
Sani Isah Abba,
Mehebub Sahana,
Manish Pandey,
Tran Trung Tin,
Binh Thai Pham Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
To profile or not?
AbstractDeveloping effective inspection processes at border crossings in order to identify violators within large groups of mostly innocent people is an important and difficult task. Passenger profiling is a tool used to deal with this task, but it raises many public concerns and ongoing debates about its usefulness. In this article, we study whether profiling is helpful, how it should be used to maximize its effectiveness, and how social utility is affected by its use. We consider two game models that take place at a crowded border crossing, where passengers are divided into different groups based on their risk profile. T...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 24, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yael Deutsch,
Arieh Gavious Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
