Influence of Distribution of Animals between Dose Groups on Estimated Benchmark Dose and Animal Welfare for Continuous Effects
Abstract The benchmark dose (BMD) approach is increasingly used as a preferred approach for dose–effect analysis, but standard experimental designs are generally not optimized for BMD analysis. The aim of this study was to evaluate how the use of unequally sized dose groups affects the quality of BMD estimates in toxicity testing, with special consideration of the total burden of animal distress. We generated continuous dose–effect data by Monte Carlo simulation using two dose–effect curves based on endpoints with different shape parameters. Eighty‐five designs, each with four dose groups of unequal siz...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joakim Ringblom, Fereshteh Kalantari, Gunnar Johanson, Mattias Öberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Value Measure for Public ‐Sector Enterprise Risk Management: A TSA Case Study
This article presents a public value measure that can be used to aid executives in the public sector to better assess policy decisions and maximize value to the American people. Using Transportation Security Administration (TSA) programs as an example, we first identify the basic components of public value. We then propose a public value account to quantify the outcomes of various risk scenarios, and we determine the certain equivalent of several important TSA programs. We illustrate how this proposed measure can quantify the effects of two main challenges that government organizations face when conducting enterprise risk ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenneth C. Fletcher, Ali E. Abbas Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interdependent Network Recovery Games
Abstract Recovery of interdependent infrastructure networks in the presence of catastrophic failure is crucial to the economy and welfare of society. Recently, centralized methods have been developed to address optimal resource allocation in postdisaster recovery scenarios of interdependent infrastructure systems that minimize total cost. In real‐world systems, however, multiple independent, possibly noncooperative, utility network controllers are responsible for making recovery decisions, resulting in suboptimal decentralized processes. With the goal of minimizing recovery cost, a best‐case decentralized model allows ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andrew M. Smith, Andr és D. González, Leonardo Dueñas‐Osorio, Raissa M. D'Souza Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Analysis of Surface Water Flood Risk in London
This study develops a methodology to link high spatial resolution probabilistic projections of hourly precipitation with detailed surface water flood depth maps and characterization of urban vulnerability to estimate surface water flood risk. It incorporates probabilistic information on the range of uncertainties in future precipitation in a changing climate. The method is applied to a case study of Greater London and highlights that both the frequency and spatial extent of surface water flood events are set to increase under future climate change. The expected annual damage from surface water flooding is estimated to be t...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katie Jenkins, Jim Hall, Vassilis Glenis, Chris Kilsby Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

People's Risk Recognition Preceding Evacuation and Its Role in Demand Modeling and Planning
Abstract Evacuation planning and management involves estimating the travel demand in the event that such action is required. This is usually done as a function of people's decision to evacuate, which we show is strongly linked to their risk awareness. We use an empirical data set, which shows tsunami evacuation behavior, to demonstrate that risk recognition is not synonymous with objective risk, but is instead determined by a combination of factors including risk education, information, and sociodemographics, and that it changes dynamically over time. Based on these findings, we formulate an ordered logit model to describe...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Junji Urata, Adam J. Pel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Correlation of Noncancer Benchmark Doses in Short ‐ and Long‐Term Rodent Bioassays
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Using a Web ‐Based Diary Method to Estimate Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 548-561, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 548-561, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Using a Web ‐Based Diary Method to Estimate Risks and Benefits from Fish Consumption
Abstract Accurate estimates of the amount and type of fish people eat are necessary to determine the health benefits and risks of consuming fish, and to assess compliance with fish consumption guidelines issued for fish affected by chemical contaminants. We developed a web‐based and mobile‐phone‐enabled diary methodology to collect detailed fish consumption information for two 16‐week periods in the summers of 2014 and 2015. We recruited study participants from two populations living in the Great Lakes region—women of childbearing age (WCBA) and urban residents who had purchased fishing licenses. In this arti...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nancy A. Connelly, T. Bruce Lauber, Jeff Niederdeppe, Barbara A. Knuth Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Correlation of Noncancer Benchmark Doses in Short ‐ and Long‐Term Rodent Bioassays
This study investigated whether, in the absence of chronic noncancer toxicity data, short‐term noncancer toxicity data can be used to predict chronic toxicity effect levels by focusing on the dose–response relationship instead of a critical effect. Data from National Toxicology Program (NTP) technical reports have been extracted and modeled using the Environmental Protection Agency's Benchmark Dose Software. Best‐fit, minimum benchmark dose (BMD), and benchmark dose lower limits (BMDLs) have been modeled for all NTP pathologist identified significant nonneoplastic lesions, final mean body weight, and mean organ w...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jessica Kratchman, Bing Wang, John Fox, George Gray Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating Geographical Risks in Crisis Management: The Need for Research
Abstract In any crisis, there is a great deal of uncertainty, often geographical uncertainty or, more precisely, spatiotemporal uncertainty. Examples include the spread of contamination from an industrial accident, drifting volcanic ash, and the path of a hurricane. Estimating spatiotemporal probabilities is usually a difficult task, but that is not our primary concern. Rather, we ask how analysts can communicate spatiotemporal uncertainty to those handling the crisis. We comment on the somewhat limited literature on the representation of spatial uncertainty on maps. We note that many cognitive issues arise and that the po...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Simon French, Nikolaos Argyris, Stephanie M. Haywood, Matthew C. Hort, Jim Q. Smith Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Toward Probabilistic Prediction of Flash Flood Human Impacts
This article focuses on conceptual and methodological developments allowing the integration of physical and social dynamics leading to model forecasts of circumstance‐specific human losses during a flash flood. To reach this objective, a random forest classifier is applied to assess the likelihood of fatality occurrence for a given circumstance as a function of representative indicators. Here, vehicle‐related circumstance is chosen as the literature indicates that most fatalities from flash flooding fall in this category. A database of flash flood events, with and without human losses from 2001 to 2011 in the United St...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 23, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Galateia Terti, Isabelle Ruin, Jonathan J. Gourley, Pierre Kirstetter, Zachary Flamig, Juliette Blanchet, Ami Arthur, Sandrine Anquetin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risks of Allergic Contact Dermatitis Elicited by Nickel, Chromium, and Organic Sensitizers: Quantitative Models Based on Clinical Patch Test Data
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Influence of Risk Perception on Attitudes and Norms Regarding Electronic Cigarettes
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Influence of Risk Perception on Attitudes and Norms Regarding Electronic Cigarettes
Abstract The use of electronic cigarettes has grown substantially over the last few years. Currently, about 4% of adults use electronic cigarettes, about 16% of high school students report use in the past 30 days, as do approximately 11–25% of college students. A hallmark of the reduction in tobacco use has been the shift in social norms concerning smoking in public. Such norms may also drive views on acceptability of public electronic cigarette use. While normative factors have been given attention, little substantive application of the literature on risk perception has been brought to bear. The overall aim of this ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Craig W. Trumbo Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Framework for Understanding Uncertainty in Seismic Risk Assessment
This article presents a model framework to enhance seismic risk assessment and thus gives decisionmakers a fuller understanding of the nature and limitations of the estimates. This can help ensure that risks are not over‐ or underestimated and the value of acquiring accurate data is appreciated fully. The methodology presented provides a novel treatment of uncertainties in input variables, their propagation through the model, and their effect on the results. The study presents ranges of possible annual collapse probabilities for different case studies on buildings in different parts of the world, exposed to different lev...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Roxane Foulser ‐Piggott, Gary Bowman, Martin Hughes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risks of Allergic Contact Dermatitis Elicited by Nickel, Chromium, and Organic Sensitizers: Quantitative Models Based on Clinical Patch Test Data
Abstract Risks of allergic contact dermatitis (ACD) from consumer products intended for extended (nonpiercing) dermal contact are regulated by E.U. Directive EN 1811 that limits released Ni to a weekly equivalent dermal load of ≤0.5 μg/cm2. Similar approaches for thousands of known organic sensitizers are hampered by inability to quantify respective ACD‐elicitation risk levels. To help address this gap, normalized values of cumulative risk for eliciting a positive (“≥+”) clinical patch test response reported in 12 studies for a total of n = 625 Ni‐sensitized patients were modeled in relation t...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenneth T. Bogen, Michael R. Garry Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Risk Ranking of Antimicrobial ‐Resistant Hazards Found in Meat in Switzerland
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Bounding Analysis of Drinking Water Health Risks from a Spill of Hydraulic Fracturing Flowback Water
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Designing Graphs that Promote Both Risk Understanding and Behavior Change
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Bounding Analysis of Drinking Water Health Risks from a Spill of Hydraulic Fracturing Flowback Water
Abstract A bounding risk assessment is presented that evaluates possible human health risk from a hypothetical scenario involving a 10,000‐gallon release of flowback water from horizontal fracturing of Marcellus Shale. The water is assumed to be spilled on the ground, infiltrates into groundwater that is a source of drinking water, and an adult and child located downgradient drink the groundwater. Key uncertainties in estimating risk are given explicit quantitative treatment using Monte Carlo analysis. Chemicals that contribute significantly to estimated health risks are identified, as are key uncertainties and variables...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: William R. Rish, Edward J. Pfau Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Ranking of Antimicrobial ‐Resistant Hazards Found in Meat in Switzerland
This study provides a basis for prioritizing future activities to mitigate the risk associated with foodborne AMR in Switzerland. A user‐friendly version of the model was provided to risk managers; it can easily be adjusted to the constantly evolving knowledge on AMR. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 3, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lucie Collineau, Lu ís Pedro Carmo, Andrea Endimiani, Ioannis Magouras, Cedric Müntener, Gertraud Schüpbach‐Regula, Katharina D. C. Stärk Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Comparative Probabilistic Assessment of Occupational Pesticide Exposures Based on Regulatory Assessments
Abstract Implementation of probabilistic analyses in exposure assessment can provide valuable insight into the risks of those at the extremes of population distributions, including more vulnerable or sensitive subgroups. Incorporation of these analyses into current regulatory methods for occupational pesticide exposure is enabled by the exposure data sets and associated data currently used in the risk assessment approach of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). Monte Carlo simulations were performed on exposure measurements from the Agricultural Handler Exposure Database and the Pesticide Handler Exposure Database alo...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jane G. Pouzou, Alison C. Cullen, Michael G. Yost, John C. Kissel, Richard A. Fenske Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Cancer Risk Associated with Residential Exposure to Soil Containing Radioactive Coal Combustion Residuals
The objective of this study was to utilize methodology on radionuclide risk assessment from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to estimate the potential cancer risks associated with residential exposure to CCR‐containing soil. We evaluated potential radionuclide exposure via soil ingestion, inhalation of soil particulates, and external exposure to ionizing radiation using published CCR radioactivity values for 232Th, 228Ra, 238U, and 226Ra from the Appalachia, Illinois, and Powder River coal basins. Mean and upper‐bound cancer risks were estimated individually for each radionuclide, exposure pathway, and coal ba...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kevin M. Towle, Neva F. B. Jacobs, James J. Keenan, Andrew D. Monnot Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Mapping of Groundwater ‐Drawdown‐Induced Land Subsidence in Heterogeneous Soils on Large Areas
In this study, the risk for subsidence is estimated by coupling two probabilistic models, a geostatistics‐based soil stratification model with a subsidence model. Statistical analyses of stratification and soil properties are inputs into the models. The results include spatially explicit probabilistic estimates of subsidence magnitude and sensitivities of included model parameters. From these, areas with significant risk for subsidence are distinguished from low‐risk areas. The efficiency and usefulness of this modeling approach as a tool for communication to stakeholders, decision support for prioritization of risk‐...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonas Sundell, Ezra Haaf, Tommy Norberg, Claes Al én, Mats Karlsson, Lars Rosén Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Perceptions of Risk and Vulnerability Following Exposure to a Major Natural Disaster: The Calgary Flood of 2013
Abstract Many studies have examined the general public's flood risk perceptions in the aftermath of local and regional flooding. However, relatively few studies have focused on large‐scale events that affect tens of thousands of people within an urban center. Similarly, in spite of previous research on flood risks, unresolved questions persist regarding the variables that might influence perceptions of risk and vulnerability, along with management preferences. In light of the opportunities presented by these knowledge gaps, the research reported here examined public perceptions of flood risk and vulnerability, and manage...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alexa Tanner, Joseph Árvai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Setting Priorities in Behavioral Interventions: An Application to Reducing Phishing Risk
This study suggests that interventions to reduce response bias, rather than to increase sensitivity, have greater net benefit. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Casey Inez Canfield, Baruch Fischhoff Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research