Theory and Practice in Policy Analysis. M. Granger  Morgan. New York: Cambridge University Press, 2017, 580 pages and index, ISBN 978‐1‐316‐63620‐6, paper, $49.97.
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael R. Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

George Apostolakis: Applying Equal Doses of PRA and Collegiality
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Profile Source Type: research

From The Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Frequency of Risk ‐Related News Media Messages in 2016 Coverage of Zika Virus
This study analyzed and described the content of U.S. news media coverage of Zika virus and Zika response during 2016. A random selection of 800 Zika‐related news stories from 25 print and television news sources was analyzed. The study examined 24 different messages that appeared in news media articles and characterized them using theories of risk perception as messages with characteristics that could increase perception of risk (risk‐elevating messages; n = 14), messages that could decrease perception of risk (risk‐minimizing messages; n = 8), or messages about travel or testing guidance (n = 2). Overall, 96% of ne...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tara Kirk Sell, Crystal Watson, Diane Meyer, Marissa Kronk, Sanjana Ravi, Laura E. Pechta, Keri M. Lubell, Dale A. Rose Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of Two Approaches to Defining Extinction Risk under the U.S. Endangered Species Act
Abstract The predominant definition of extinction risk in conservation biology involves evaluating the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of extinction time at a particular point (the “time horizon”). Using the principles of decision theory, this article develops an alternative definition of extinction risk as the expected loss (EL) to society resulting from eventual extinction of a species. Distinct roles are identified for time preference and risk aversion. Ranges of tentative values for the parameters of the two approaches are proposed, and the performances of the two approaches are compared and contrast...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Grant G. Thompson, Lynn A. Maguire, Tracey J. Regan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling Poliovirus Transmission in Pakistan and Afghanistan to Inform Vaccination Strategies in Undervaccinated Subpopulations
This study suggests that despite the moderate effect of using IPV in SIAs, using OPV in SIAs remains the most effective means to stop transmission, while limited IPV resources should prioritize IPV use in routine immunization. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Mark A. Pallansch, Stephen L. Cochi, Derek T. Ehrhardt, Noha H. Farag, Stephen C. Hadler, Lee M. Hampton, Maureen Martinez, Steve G.F. Wassilak, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Toward an Application Guide for Safety Integrity Level Allocation in Railway Systems
Abstract The work in the article presents the development of an application guide based on feedback and comments stemming from various railway actors on their practices of SIL allocation to railway safety‐related functions. The initial generic methodology for SIL allocation has been updated to be applied to railway rolling stock safety‐related functions in order to solve the SIL concept application issues. Various actors dealing with railway SIL allocation problems are the intended target of the methodology; its principles will be summarized in this article with a focus on modifications and precisions made in order to ...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kiswendsida Abel Ouedraogo, Julie Beugin, El ‐Miloudi El‐Koursi, Joffrey Clarhaut, Dominique Renaux, Frederic Lisiecki Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

On the Relationship between Safety and Decision Significance
Abstract Risk analysts are often concerned with identifying key safety drivers, that is, the systems, structures, and components (SSCs) that matter the most to safety. SSCs importance is assessed both in the design phase (i.e., before a system is built) and in the implementation phase (i.e., when the system has been built) using the same importance measures. However, in a design phase, it would be necessary to appreciate whether the failure/success of a given SSC can cause the overall decision to change from accept to reject (decision significance). This work addresses the search for the conditions under which SSCs that ar...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emanuele Borgonovo, Alessandra Cillo, Curtis L. Smith Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Transportation Networks Affected by Rainfall ‐Induced Multihazards
This study presents a comprehensive framework to analyze the risk to transportation infrastructure networks that are affected by natural hazards. The proposed risk analysis method considers both the failure probability of infrastructure components and the expected infrastructure network efficiency and capacity loss due to component failure. This comprehensive approach facilitates the identification of high‐risk network links in terms of not only their susceptibility to natural hazards but also their overall impact on the network. The Chinese national rail system and its exposure to rainfall‐related multihazards are use...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kai Liu, Ming Wang, Yinxue Cao, Weihua Zhu, Jinshan Wu, Xiaoyong Yan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Ethical Foundations of Risk Analysis
Abstract In the field of risk analysis, the normative value systems underlying accepted methodology are rarely explicitly discussed. This perspective provides a critique of the various ethical frameworks that can be used in risk assessments and risk management decisions. The goal is to acknowledge philosophical weaknesses that should be considered and communicated in order to improve the public acceptance of the work of risk analysts. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel J. Rozell Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from Consumption of Alfalfa Sprouts and Evaluation of the Public Health Impact of Sprout Seed Treatment and Spent Irrigation Water Testing
Abstract We developed a risk assessment of human salmonellosis associated with consumption of alfalfa sprouts in the United States to evaluate the public health impact of applying treatments to seeds (0–5‐log10 reduction in Salmonella) and testing spent irrigation water (SIW) during production. The risk model considered variability and uncertainty in Salmonella contamination in seeds, Salmonella growth and spread during sprout production, sprout consumption, and Salmonella dose response. Based on an estimated prevalence of 2.35% for 6.8 kg seed batches and without interventions, the model predicted 76,600 (95% conf...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yuhuan Chen, R égis Pouillot, Sofia M. Santillana Farakos, Steven Duret, Judith Spungen, Tong‐Jen Fu, Fazila Shakir, Patricia A. Homola, Sherri Dennis, Jane M. Doren Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Mathematical Model for Pathogen Cross ‐Contamination Dynamics during the Postharvest Processing of Leafy Greens
This study demonstrates that developing a flexible yet mathematically rigorous modeling tool, a “virtual laboratory,” can provide valuable insights into the effectiveness of individual and combined risk mitigation options. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amir Mokhtari, David Oryang, Yuhuan Chen, Regis Pouillot, Jane Doren Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Systems ‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Intentional Electromagnetic Interference (IEMI) on Critical Infrastructures
This article presents a systematic risk assessment framework for identifying possible, consequential, and plausible intentional electromagnetic interference (IEMI) attacks on an arbitrary distribution network infrastructure. In the absence of available data on IEMI occurrences, we find that a systems‐based risk assessment is more useful than a probabilistic approach. We therefore modify the often applied definition of risk, i.e., a set of triplets containing scenario, probability, and consequence, to a set of quadruplets: scenario, resource requirements, plausibility, and consequence. Probability is “replaced&rdquo...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 1, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Benjamin Donald Oakes, Lars ‐Göran Mattsson, Per Näsman, Andrés Alayón Glazunov Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 26, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Construction of a Dose –Illness Relationship via Modeling Morbidity and Application to Risk Assessment of Wastewater Reuse
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 26, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 26, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Construction of a Dose –Illness Relationship via Modeling Morbidity and Application to Risk Assessment of Wastewater Reuse
In this study, the method of a traditional dose–response analysis was first reviewed, and then a combination of the theoretical basis of a “single‐hit” and an “infection‐illness” model was performed by incorporating two critical factors: the “infective coefficient” and “infection duration.” This allowed a dose–morbidity model to be built for direct use in DB calculations. In addition, human experimental data for typical intestinal pathogens were obtained for model validation, and the results indicated that the model was well fitted and could be further used fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 26, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tingting Gao, Rong Chen, Yanzheng Liu, Xiaochang C. Wang, Yuyou Li Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimation of the Leukemia Risk in Human Populations Exposed to Benzene from Tobacco Smoke Using Epidemiological Data
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent ‐Based Modeling and Simulation
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Effects of an Advisory Brochure on Fish Consumption of Urban Anglers in the Great Lakes Region
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Estimation of the Leukemia Risk in Human Populations Exposed to Benzene from Tobacco Smoke Using Epidemiological Data
Abstract Several epidemiological studies have demonstrated an association between occupational benzene exposure and increased leukemia risk, in particular acute myeloid leukemia (AML). However, there is still uncertainty as to the risk to the general population from exposure to lower environmental levels of benzene. To estimate the excess risk of leukemia from low‐dose benzene exposure, various methods for incorporating epidemiological data in quantitative risk assessment were utilized. Tobacco smoke was identified as one of the main potential sources of benzene exposure and was the focus of this exposure assessment, all...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stacy Fiebelkorn, Clive Meredith Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

DAMS: A Model to Assess Domino Effects by Using Agent ‐Based Modeling and Simulation
In this study, an agent‐based modeling and simulation approach is proposed to study the propagation of domino effects in the chemical and process industries. Different from the analytical or Monte Carlo simulation approaches, which normally study the domino effect at probabilistic network levels, the agent‐based modeling technique explains the domino effects from a bottom‐up perspective. In this approach, the installations involved in a domino effect are modeled as agents whereas the interactions among the installations (e.g., by means of heat radiation) are modeled via the basic rules of the agents. Application of t...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Laobing Zhang, Gabriele Landucci, Genserik Reniers, Nima Khakzad, Jianfeng Zhou Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

A Spatio ‐Temporal Exposure‐Hazard Model for Assessing Biological Risk and Impact
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

An Integrated Framework for Environmental Multi ‐Impact Spatial Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old ‐Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Aging and Cardiometabolic Risk in European HEMS Pilots: An Assessment of Occupational Old ‐Age Limits as a Regulatory Risk Management Strategy
Abstract Old‐age limits are imposed in some occupations in an effort to ensure public safety. In aviation, the “Age 60 Rule” limits permissible flight operations conducted by pilots aged 60 and over. Using a retrospective cohort design, we assessed this rule's validity by comparing age‐related change rates of cardiometabolic incapacitation risk markers in European helicopter emergency medical service (HEMS) pilots near age 60 with those in younger pilots. Specifically, individual clinical, laboratory, and electrocardiogram (ECG)‐based risk markers and an overall cardiovascular event risk score were determ...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hans Bauer, Dennis Nowak, Britta Herbig Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Spatio ‐Temporal Exposure‐Hazard Model for Assessing Biological Risk and Impact
This article presents the model background, the use of the package in an illustrative example, namely, the effect of genetically modified maize pollen on nontarget Lepidoptera, and typical comparisons of landscape configurations that can be carried out with our model (different configurations lead to different mortality rates in the treated example). In real case studies, parameters and parametric functions encountered in the model will have to be precisely specified to obtain realistic measures of risk and impact and accurate comparisons of landscape configurations. Our modeling framework could be applied to study other r...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emily Walker, Melen Leclerc, Jean ‐François Rey, Rémy Beaudouin, Samuel Soubeyrand, Antoine Messéan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantifying Cancer Risk from Radiation
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 6, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 6, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

The Ostrich Paradox: Why We Underprepare for Disasters. Robert  Meyer and Howard Kunruether. Philadelphia: Wharton Digital Press, 2017.
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 6, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robin L. Dillon Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 6, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 6, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Using the CAUSE Model to Understand Public Communication about Water Risks: Perspectives from Texas Groundwater District Officials on Drought and Availability
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Evaluation of the Influenza Risk Reduction from Antimicrobial Spray Application on Porous Surfaces
Abstract Antimicrobial spray products are used by millions of people around the world for cleaning and disinfection of commonly touched surfaces. Influenza A is a pathogen of major concern, leading to up to 49,000 deaths and 114,000 hospitalizations per year in the United States alone. One of the recognized routes of transmission for influenza A is by transfer of viruses from surfaces to hands and subsequently to mucous membranes. Therefore, routine cleaning and disinfection of surfaces is an important part of the environmental management of influenza A. While the emphasis is generally on spraying hard surfaces and launder...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alexandre Chabrelie, Jade Mitchell, Joan Rose, Duane Charbonneau, Yoshiki Ishida Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Effects of an Advisory Brochure on Fish Consumption of Urban Anglers in the Great Lakes Region
Abstract Past research has suggested that urban anglers are a group at high risk of being exposed to contaminants from fish consumption. Fish consumption advisories have been used in many regions to encourage healthy fish‐eating behaviors, but few studies have been designed to assess whether these advisories actually influence behavior as intended. We conducted a large‐scale, randomized experiment to test the influence of an advisory brochure on urban anglers’ fish consumption. We collected detailed information on anglers’ fish consumption in three urban counties in the Great Lakes region in the summers of ...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: T. Bruce Lauber, Nancy A. Connelly, Jeff Niederdeppe, Barbara A. Knuth Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Essential Elements of a Risk Governance Framework for Current and Future Nanotechnologies
Abstract Societies worldwide are investing considerable resources into the safe development and use of nanomaterials. Although each of these protective efforts is crucial for governing the risks of nanomaterials, they are insufficient in isolation. What is missing is a more integrative governance approach that goes beyond legislation. Development of this approach must be evidence based and involve key stakeholders to ensure acceptance by end users. The challenge is to develop a framework that coordinates the variety of actors involved in nanotechnology and civil society to facilitate consideration of the complex issues tha...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Vicki Stone, Martin F ühr, Peter H. Feindt, Hans Bouwmeester, Igor Linkov, Stefania Sabella, Finbarr Murphy, Kilian Bizer, Lang Tran, Marlene Ågerstrand, Carlos Fito, Torben Andersen, Diana Anderson, Enrico Bergamaschi, John W. Cherrie, Sue Cowan, Jean Tags: Perspective Source Type: research