Disaster Risk Management Policies and the Measurement of Resilience for Philippine Regions
AbstractHow can a government prioritize disaster risk management policies across regions and types of interventions? Using an economic model to assess welfare risk and resilience to disasters, this article systematically tackles the questions: (1) How much asset and welfare risks does each region in the Philippines face from riverine flood disasters? (2) How resilient is each region to riverine flood disasters? (3) What are, per region, the possible interventions to strengthen resilience to riverine flood disasters and what will be their measured benefit? We study the regions of the Philippines to demonstrate the channels ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rio Yonson, Ilan Noy Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of Multicriteria Decision Analysis Algorithms in Food Safety: A Case Study on Emerging Zoonoses Prioritization
AbstractDecision making in food safety is a complex process that involves several criteria of different nature like the expected reduction in the number of illnesses, the potential economic or health ‐related cost, or even the environmental impact of a given policy or intervention. Several multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithms are currently used, mostly individually, in food safety to rank different options in a multifactorial environment. However, the selection of the MCDA algorit hm is a decision problem on its own because different methods calculate different rankings. The aim of this study was to compare ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alberto Garre, Geraldine Bou é, Pablo S. Fernández, Jeanne‐Marie Membré, Jose A. Egea Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Proximity (Mis)perception: Public Awareness of Nuclear, Refinery, and Fracking Sites
AbstractWhether on grounds of perceived safety, aesthetics, or overall quality of life, residents may wish to be aware of nearby energy sites such as nuclear reactors, refineries, and fracking wells. Yet people are not always accurate in their impressions of proximity. Indeed, our data show that only 54% of Americans living within 25 miles of a nuclear site say they do, and even fewer fracking ‐proximal (30%) and refinery‐proximal (24%) residents respond accurately. In this article, we analyze factors that could either help people form more accurate perceptions or distort their impressions of proximity. We evaluate the...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Benjamin A. Lyons, Heather Akin, Natalie Jomini Stroud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit
This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose –response ofEscherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics a...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip J. Schmidt, Monica B. Emelko, Mary E. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Impact of Water Level Rise on Urban Infrastructures: Washington, DC, and Shanghai as Case Studies
This article discusses the impact of WLR on urban infrastructures with case studies of Washington, DC, and Shanghai. Based on the flooding risk analysis under possible scenarios, the property loss for Washington, DC, was evaluated, and the impact on the metro system of Shanghai was examined. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanjie Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Dongming Zhang, Hongwei Huang, Yalda Saadat Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluating and Visualizing the Economic Impact of Commercial Districts Due to an Electric Power Network Disruption
AbstractCritical infrastructure networks enable social behavior, economic productivity, and the way of life of communities. Disruptions to these cyber –physical–social networks highlight their importance. Recent disruptions caused by natural phenomena, including Hurricanes Harvey and Irma in 2017, have particularly demonstrated the importance of functioning electric power networks. Assessing the economic impact (EI) of electricity outages afte r a service disruption is a challenging task, particularly when interruption costs vary by the type of electric power use (e.g., residential, commercial, industrial). In ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andrea Garcia Tapia, Mildred Suarez, Jose E. Ramirez ‐Marquez, Kash Barker Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit
This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose –response ofEscherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics a...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip J. Schmidt, Monica B. Emelko, Mary E. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Impact of Water Level Rise on Urban Infrastructures: Washington, DC, and Shanghai as Case Studies
This article discusses the impact of WLR on urban infrastructures with case studies of Washington, DC, and Shanghai. Based on the flooding risk analysis under possible scenarios, the property loss for Washington, DC, was evaluated, and the impact on the metro system of Shanghai was examined. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanjie Zhang, Bilal M. Ayyub, Dongming Zhang, Hongwei Huang, Yalda Saadat Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Radon as a Tracer of Lung Changes Induced by Smoking
AbstractAfter smoking, exposure to radon and its progeny is the second leading cause of lung cancer. The probability of inducing lung carcinomas by inhaled radon progeny depends on the deposited radiation dose, and is significantly affected by physiological and morphometric changes induced by smoking. Due to irritation of the airways, the inhalation of cigarette smoke leads to the hyperproduction of mucus. Two concurrent processes occur: on one hand, increased production of mucus protects the target cells against radiation damage; on the other hand, in the case of long ‐term smokers, a chronic lung obstruction develops, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 12, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Radoslav B öhm, Antonín Sedlák, Martin Bulko, Karol Holý Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Coming of Age of Risk Governance
AbstractProposed as an advanced conceptualization of how to handle risk, risk governance begins with the critique and expansion of the traditional idea and standard practices of risk analysis. In developments over the last two decades, proponents of a more integrative approach on governing risks have moved further away from distinct conceptions of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and toward the processes and institutions that guide, restrain, and integrate collective activities of handling risk. In early formulations of what risk governance entails, the superiority of the interplay between risk eval...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 8, August 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 8, Page 1655-1656, August 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Mastering Catastrophic Risk: How Companies Are Coping with Disruption, by Howard  Kunreuther, Erwann Michel‐Kerjan, and Michael Useem, Oxford, New York, 2018, 240 pages, US$29.95, ISBN 9780190499402.
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 8, Page 1864-1865, August 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Efficacy Foundations for Risk Communication: How People Think About Reducing the Risks of Climate Change
AbstractBelieving action to reduce the risks of climate change is both possible (self ‐efficacy) and effective (response efficacy) is essential to motivate and sustain risk mitigation efforts, according to current risk communication theory. Although the public recognizes the dangers of climate change, and is deluged with lists of possible mitigative actions, little is known about p ublic efficacy beliefs in the context of climate change. Prior efficacy studies rely on conflicting constructs and measures of efficacy, and links between efficacy and risk management actions are muddled. As a result, much remains to learn abo...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Katherine M. Crosman, Ann Bostrom, Adam L. Hayes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Loss/Gain Framing, Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment
This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one ‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered signific...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Chelsea L. Ratcliff, Jakob D. Jensen, Courtney L. Scherr, Melinda Krakow, Kaylee Crossley Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adversarial Risk Analysis to Allocate Optimal Defense Resources for Protecting Cyber –Physical Systems from Cyber Attacks
We present the approach and the results of its application to a nuclear CPS, specifically the digital instrumentation and control system of the advanced lead‐cooled fast reactor European demonstrator. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wei Wang, Francesco Di Maio, Enrico Zio Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Loss/Gain Framing, Dose, and Reactance: A Message Experiment
This study examined reactance as a mediator and dose as a moderator of loss/gain framing effects. Adults (N = 1,039) read framed messages about the health consequences of physical (in)activity in varying message doses (i.e., number of framed statements). Compared to loss frames, gain frames generated more threat to freedom and reactance. Dosage exerted significant influence at the extremes; the one ‐dose messages invoked less intentions to exercise compared to the four‐dose messages. Planned contrasts revealed significant frame × dose interactions. Notably, the one‐dose gain‐framed messages triggered signific...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Chelsea L. Ratcliff, Jakob D. Jensen, Courtney L. Scherr, Melinda Krakow, Kaylee Crossley Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Americans ’ Views of Voluntary Protective Actions Against Zika Infection: Conceptual and Measurement Issues
AbstractUnderstanding factors affecting decisions by people to protect themselves, or not, is critical to designing supportive communications. Here, threat, protective ‐action, and stakeholder perceptions were evaluated for effects on mainland Americans’ behavioral intentions regarding Zika in April 2017, as postulated by the Protective Action Decision Model. Although all three perception types (including a novel resource sufficiency measure) affected intentio ns, these relationships varied widely depending upon the method used to measure adoption of actions (e.g., total count of all behaviors adopted vs. behavior...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management
AbstractThe formal mathematical structure for decision making under uncertainty was first expressed in Savage's axioms over 60 years ago. But while the underlyingnormative concepts for decision making under uncertainty remain constant, thepractice of applying these concepts in real ‐world settings, as conducted by decision analysis (DA) specialists working with agencies and interested parties, has seen a major transformation in recent decades. The purpose of this article is to provide perspectives that characterize and interpret how DA practice for societal risk management q uestions has grown and is being transformed ov...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 22, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Timothy McDaniels Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Critical Time, Space, and Decision ‐Making Agent Considerations in Human‐Centered Interdisciplinary Hurricane‐Related Research
This article discusses and illustrates the need for alignment of decision‐making agents, time, and space for interdisciplinary research on hurricanes, particularly evacuation and the immediate aftermath. We specifically consider the fields of sociobehavioral science, transportation engineering, power systems engineering, and decision support systems in this context. These disciplines have historically adopted different decision‐making agents, ranging from individuals to households to utilities and government agencies. The fields largely converged to the local level for studies’ spatial scales, with some extension...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Pamela Murray ‐Tuite, Y. Gurt Ge, Christopher Zobel, Roshanak Nateghi, Haizhong Wang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods
AbstractScour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rat...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rob Lamb, Paige Garside, Raghav Pant, Jim W. Hall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Fuzzy ‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Under‐Ice Missions
AbstractThe use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open‐water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under‐ice missions is crucial to en sure an AUV's survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predomina...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Critical Time, Space, and Decision ‐Making Agent Considerations in Human‐Centered Interdisciplinary Hurricane‐Related Research
This article discusses and illustrates the need for alignment of decision‐making agents, time, and space for interdisciplinary research on hurricanes, particularly evacuation and the immediate aftermath. We specifically consider the fields of sociobehavioral science, transportation engineering, power systems engineering, and decision support systems in this context. These disciplines have historically adopted different decision‐making agents, ranging from individuals to households to utilities and government agencies. The fields largely converged to the local level for studies’ spatial scales, with some extension...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Pamela Murray ‐Tuite, Y. Gurt Ge, Christopher Zobel, Roshanak Nateghi, Haizhong Wang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Model of the Economic Risk to Britain's Railway Network from Bridge Scour During Floods
AbstractScour (localized erosion by water) is an important risk to bridges, and hence many infrastructure networks, around the world. In Britain, scour has caused the failure of railway bridges crossing rivers in more than 50 flood events. These events have been investigated in detail, providing a data set with which we develop and test a model to quantify scour risk. The risk analysis is formulated in terms of a generic, transferrable infrastructure network risk model. For some bridge failures, the severity of the causative flood was recorded or can be reconstructed. These data are combined with the background failure rat...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rob Lamb, Paige Garside, Raghav Pant, Jim W. Hall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Fuzzy ‐Based Risk Assessment Framework for Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Under‐Ice Missions
AbstractThe use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) for various scientific, commercial, and military applications has become more common with maturing technology and improved accessibility. One relatively new development lies in the use of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic. The extreme environment, ice cover, and inaccessibility as compared to open‐water missions can result in a higher risk of loss. Therefore, having an effective assessment of risks before undertaking any Antarctic under‐ice missions is crucial to en sure an AUV's survival. Existing risk assessment approaches predomina...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Seafarers ’ Nonfatal Injuries Due to Occupational Accidents Based on Bayesian Network Modeling
In this study, the advanced method of a Bayesian network (BN) is used for the predictive modeling of s eafarer injuries for its interpretative power as well as predictive capacity. The modeling is data driven and based on an extensive empirical survey to collect data on seafarers’ working practice and their injury records during the latest tour of duty, which could overcome the limitation of histor ical injury databases that mostly contain only data about the injured group instead of the entire population. Using the survey data, a BN model was developed consisting of nine major variables, including “PPE availab...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Guizhen Zhang, Vinh V. Thai, Adrian Wing ‐Keung Law, Kum Fai Yuen, Hui Shan Loh, Qingji Zhou Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mediating and Moderating Roles of Trust in Government in Effective Risk Rumor Management: A Test Case of Radiation ‐Contaminated Seafood in South Korea
This study has two aims: to identify effective strategies for managing false rumors about risks and to investigate the roles that basic and situational trust in government play in that process. Online experiment data were collected nationwide from 915 adults in South Korea. They were exposed to a false rumor about radiation ‐contaminated seafood and were randomly assigned to one of three rumor response conditions (refutation, denial, attack the attacker). One‐way ANOVA indicated that the refutation response yielded the highest level of situational trust in government response (TGR). Results of moderated mediation m ode...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hye ‐Jin Paek, Thomas Hove Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probability of Low ‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft
AbstractUnmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near ‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anders la Cour ‐Harbo, Henrik Schiøler Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Comparative Analysis of Deterministic and Semiquantitative Approaches for Shallow Landslide Risk Modeling in Rwanda
AbstractThe use of appropriate approaches to produce risk maps is critical in landslide disaster management. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the stability index mapping (SINMAP) and the spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE) models for landslide risk modeling in Rwanda. The SINMAP used the digital elevation model in conjunction with physical soil parameters to determine the factor of safety. The SMCE method used six layers of landslide conditioning factors. In total, 155 past landslide locations were used for training and model validation. The results showed that the SMCE performed better than the SIN...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, Geping Luo, Egide Hakorimana, Richard Mind'je, Aboubakar Gasirabo, Valentine Mukanyandwi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probability of Low ‐Altitude Midair Collision Between General Aviation and Unmanned Aircraft
AbstractUnmanned aircrafts (UA) usually fly below 500 ft to be segregated from manned aircraft. However, while general aviation (GA) usually do fly above 500 ft in areas where UA are allowed to operate, GA will at times also fly below 500 ft. Consequently, there is a distinct risk of near ‐miss encounters as well as actual midair collisions (MACs). This work presents a model for determining this risk based on physical parameters of the aircraft and actual figures for the numbers of GA in a given airspace, as well as the probability of having GA below 500 ft. The aim is to achieve a prediction with a precision better than...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anders la Cour ‐Harbo, Henrik Schiøler Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Comparative Analysis of Deterministic and Semiquantitative Approaches for Shallow Landslide Risk Modeling in Rwanda
AbstractThe use of appropriate approaches to produce risk maps is critical in landslide disaster management. The aim of this study was to investigate and compare the stability index mapping (SINMAP) and the spatial multicriteria evaluation (SMCE) models for landslide risk modeling in Rwanda. The SINMAP used the digital elevation model in conjunction with physical soil parameters to determine the factor of safety. The SMCE method used six layers of landslide conditioning factors. In total, 155 past landslide locations were used for training and model validation. The results showed that the SMCE performed better than the SIN...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jean Baptiste Nsengiyumva, Geping Luo, Egide Hakorimana, Richard Mind'je, Aboubakar Gasirabo, Valentine Mukanyandwi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience
AbstractCommunities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system ‐wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time. To enable assessment of community sustainable resilience, we...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Leslie Gillespie ‐Marthaler, Katherine Nelson, Hiba Baroud, Mark Abkowitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions
AbstractMany real ‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the m ission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and th e cost‐r...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein, Hong ‐Zhong Huang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

“Chemophobia” Today: Consumers’ Knowledge and Perceptions of Chemicals
AbstractThis mixed ‐methods study investigated consumers’ knowledge of chemicals in terms of basic principles of toxicology and then related this knowledge, in addition to other factors, to their fear of chemical substances (i.e., chemophobia). Both qualitative interviews and a large‐scale online survey were con ducted in the German‐speaking part of Switzerland. A Mokken scale was developed to measure laypeople's toxicological knowledge. The results indicate that most laypeople are unaware of the similarities between natural and synthetic chemicals in terms of certain toxicological principles. Furthermore , the...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rita Saleh, Angela Bearth, Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cross ‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission
AbstractPerceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease ‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite t heir seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zik...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rachael Piltch ‐Loeb, Brian J. Zikmund‐Fisher, Victoria A. Shaffer, Laura D. Scherer, Megan Knaus, Angie Fagerlin, David M. Abramson, Aaron M. Scherer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Selecting Indicators for Assessing Community Sustainable Resilience
AbstractCommunities are complex systems subject to a variety of hazards that can result in significant disruption to critical functions. Community resilience assessment is rapidly gaining popularity as a means to help communities better prepare for, respond to, and recover from disruption. Sustainable resilience, a recently developed concept, requires communities to assess system ‐wide capability to maintain desired performance levels while simultaneously evaluating impacts to resilience due to changes in hazards and vulnerability over extended periods of time. To enable assessment of community sustainable resilience, we...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Leslie Gillespie ‐Marthaler, Katherine Nelson, Hiba Baroud, Mark Abkowitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

“Chemophobia” Today: Consumers’ Knowledge and Perceptions of Chemicals
AbstractThis mixed ‐methods study investigated consumers’ knowledge of chemicals in terms of basic principles of toxicology and then related this knowledge, in addition to other factors, to their fear of chemical substances (i.e., chemophobia). Both qualitative interviews and a large‐scale online survey were con ducted in the German‐speaking part of Switzerland. A Mokken scale was developed to measure laypeople's toxicological knowledge. The results indicate that most laypeople are unaware of the similarities between natural and synthetic chemicals in terms of certain toxicological principles. Furthermore , the...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rita Saleh, Angela Bearth, Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cross ‐Sectional Psychological and Demographic Associations of Zika Knowledge and Conspiracy Beliefs Before and After Local Zika Transmission
AbstractPerceptions of infectious diseases are important predictors of whether people engage in disease ‐specific preventive behaviors. Having accurate beliefs about a given infectious disease has been found to be a necessary condition for engaging in appropriate preventive behaviors during an infectious disease outbreak, while endorsing conspiracy beliefs can inhibit preventive behaviors. Despite t heir seemingly opposing natures, knowledge and conspiracy beliefs may share some of the same psychological motivations, including a relationship with perceived risk and self‐efficacy (i.e., control). The 2015–2016 Zik...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rachael Piltch ‐Loeb, Brian J. Zikmund‐Fisher, Victoria A. Shaffer, Laura D. Scherer, Megan Knaus, Angie Fagerlin, David M. Abramson, Aaron M. Scherer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantifying Community Resilience Using Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods: A Case Study on Recovery from Power Outages
AbstractThe ability to accurately measure recovery rate of infrastructure systems and communities impacted by disasters is vital to ensure effective response and resource allocation before, during, and after a disruption. However, a challenge in quantifying such measures resides in the lack of data as community recovery information is seldom recorded. To provide accurate community recovery measures, a hierarchical Bayesian kernel model (HBKM) is developed to predict the recovery rate of communities experiencing power outages during storms. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using cross ‐validation and co...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jin ‐Zhu Yu, Hiba Baroud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions
AbstractMany real ‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the m ission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and th e cost‐r...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein, Hong ‐Zhong Huang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 7, July 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research