Social Influence, Risk and Benefit Perceptions, and the Acceptability of Risky Energy Technologies: An Explanatory Model of Nuclear Power Versus Shale Gas
AbstractRisky energy technologies are often controversial and debates around them are polarized; in such debates public acceptability is key. Research on public acceptability has emphasized the importance of intrapersonal factors but has largely neglected the influence of interpersonal factors. In an online survey (N = 948) with a representative sample of the United Kingdom, we therefore integrate interpersonal factors (i.e., social influence as measured by social networks) with two risky energy technologies that differ in familiarity (nuclear power vs. shale gas) to examine how these factors explain risk and benefit perce...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Judith I. M. Groot, Elisa Schweiger, Iljana Schubert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post ‐Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter‐Earthquake Heterogeneity
AbstractPost ‐earthquake fires are high‐consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low‐frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post‐earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source da ta. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter‐earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post‐ear thquake fires. ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 15, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Keisuke Himoto Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Review and Evaluation of the J100 ‐10 Risk and Resilience Management Standard for Water and Wastewater Systems
We present an analysis framework for evaluating such standards and apply it to the J100 ‐10 risk analysis standard for water and wastewater systems. In doing so, we identify gaps between practices recommended in the standard and the state of the art. While individual processes found within infrastructure risk analysis standards have been evaluated in the past, we present a foundation al review and focus specifically on water systems. By highlighting both the conceptual shortcomings and practical limitations, we aim to prioritize the shortcomings needed to be addressed. Key findings from this study include (1) risk defini...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Ying ‐Jeh Chen, Valerie Nicole Washington, Terje Aven, Seth David Guikema Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Characterization of Historical Methane Occurrence Frequencies from U.S. Underground Natural Gas Storage Facilities with Implications for Risk Management, Operations, and Regulatory Policy
AbstractDefining a baseline for the frequency of occurrences at underground natural gas storage facilities is critical to maintaining safe operation and to the development of appropriate risk management plans and regulatory approaches. Currently used frequency ‐estimation methods are reviewed and broadened in this article to include critical factors of cause, severity, and uncertainty that contribute to risk. A Bayesian probabilistic analysis characterizes the aleatoric historical occurrence frequencies given imperfect sampling. Frequencies for the thre e main storage facility types in the United States (depleted oil‐a...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard A. Schultz, Douglas W. Hubbard, David J. Evans, Sam L. Savage Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Stories for Interdisciplinary Disaster Research Collaboration
This article hypothesizes that doing so could foster a new mode of collaborative learning and discovery. People, including researchers, regularly tell stories to relate “what happened” based on their experience, often in ways that augment or contradict existing understandings. These stories provide naturalistic descriptions of context, complexity, and dynamic relationships in ways that formal theories, static data, and interpretations of findings can miss. They often do so memorably and engagingly, which makes them beneficial to researchers across disciplines and allows them to be integrated into their own work...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mithra Moezzi, Lori Peek Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Identification of Protective Actions to Reduce the Vulnerability of Safety ‐Critical Systems to Malevolent Intentional Acts: An Optimization‐Based Decision‐Making Approach
AbstractAn empirical classification model based on the Majority Rule Sorting (MR ‐Sort) method has been previously proposed by the authors to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems (in particular, nuclear power plants [NPPs]) with respect to malevolent intentional acts. In this article, the model serves as the basis for an analysis aimed at determining a set o f protective actions to be taken (e.g., increasing the number of monitoring devices, reducing the number of accesses to the safety‐critical system) in order to effectively reduce the level of vulnerability of the safety‐critical systems under c...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: T. R. Wang, N. Pedroni, E. Zio, V. Mousseau Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Predicting the Probability that a Chemical Causes Steatosis Using Adverse Outcome Pathway Bayesian Networks (AOPBNs)
AbstractAdverse outcome pathway Bayesian networks (AOPBNs) are a promising avenue for developing predictive toxicology and risk assessment tools based on adverse outcome pathways (AOPs). Here, we describe a process for developing AOPBNs. AOPBNs use causal networks and Bayesian statistics to integrate evidence across key events. In this article, we use our AOPBN to predict the occurrence of steatosis under different chemical exposures. Since it is an expert ‐driven model, we use external data (i.e., data not used for modeling) from the literature to validate predictions of the AOPBN model. The AOPBN accurately predicts st...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lyle D. Burgoon, Michelle Angrish, Natalia Garcia ‐Reyero, Nathan Pollesch, Anze Zupanic, Edward Perkins Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Simulating Behavioral Influences on Community Flood Risk under Future Climate Scenarios
This study simulates behavioral influences on the evolution of community flood risk under different future climate scenarios using an agent ‐based model (ABM). The objective is to understand better the ways, sometimes unexpected, that human behavior, stochastic floods, and community interventions interact to influence the evolution of flood risk. One historic climate scenario and three future climate scenarios are simulated using a ca se study location in Fargo, North Dakota. Individual agents can mitigate flood risk via household mitigation or by moving, based on decision rules that consider risk perception and coping p...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gina Tonn, Seth Guikema, Benjamin Zaitchik Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Roles of Vegetable Surface Properties and Sanitizer Type on Annual Disease Burden of Rotavirus Illness by Consumption of Rotavirus ‐Contaminated Fresh Vegetables: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractEnteric viruses are often detected in water used for crop irrigation. One concern is foodborne viral disease via the consumption of fresh produce irrigated with virus ‐contaminated water. Although the food industry routinely uses chemical sanitizers to disinfect post‐harvest fresh produce, it remains unknown how sanitizer and fresh produce properties affect the risk of viral illness through fresh produce consumption. A quantitative microbial risk assessment m odel was conducted to estimate (i) the health risks associated with consumption of rotavirus (RV)‐contaminated fresh produce with different surface prop...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Miyu Fuzawa, Rebecca Lee Smith, Kang ‐Mo Ku, Joanna L. Shisler, Hao Feng, John A. Juvik, Thanh H. Nguyen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Deep Learning Models for Health and Safety Risk Prediction in Power Infrastructure Projects
In this study, we used a text ‐mining approach for retrieving meaningful terms from data and develop six deep learning (DL) models for H&S risks management in power infrastructure. The DL models include DNNclassify (risk or no risk), DNNreg1 (loss time), DNNreg2 (body injury), DNNreg3 (plant and fleet), DNNreg4 (equipment), and DNNreg5 (environment). An H&S risk database obtained from a leading UK power infrastructure construction company was used in developing the models using the H2O framework of the R language. Performances of DL models were assessed and benchmarked with existing models using test data and app...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anuoluwapo Ajayi, Lukumon Oyedele, Hakeem Owolabi, Olugbenga Akinade, Muhammad Bilal, Juan Manuel Davila Delgado, Lukman Akanbi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Fuzzy System Dynamics Risk Analysis (FuSDRA) of Autonomous Underwater Vehicle Operations in the Antarctic
AbstractWith the maturing of autonomous technology and better accessibility, there has been a growing interest in the use of autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs). The deployment of AUVs for under ‐ice marine science research in the Antarctic is one such example. However, a higher risk of AUV loss is present during such endeavors due to the extreme operating environment. To control the risk of loss, existing risk analyses approaches tend to focus more on the AUV's technical aspects and negl ect the role of soft factors, such as organizational and human influences. In addition, the dynamic and complex interrelationships o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tzu Yang Loh, Mario P. Brito, Neil Bose, Jingjing Xu, Kiril Tenekedjiev Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Premature Deaths, Statistical Lives, and Years of Life Lost: Identification, Quantification, and Valuation of Mortality Risks
AbstractMortality effects of exposure to air pollution and other environmental hazards are often described by the estimated number of “premature” or “attributable” deaths and the economic value of a reduction in exposure as the product of an estimate of “statistical lives saved” and a “value per statistical life.” These terms can be misleading because the number of deaths advanced by exposure cannot be determined f rom mortality data alone, whether from epidemiology or randomized trials (it is not statistically identified). The fraction of deaths “attributed” to e...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James K. Hammitt, Peter Morfeld, Jouni T. Tuomisto, Thomas C. Erren Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Return Migration and Decontamination After the 2011 Fukushima Nuclear Power Plant Disaster
AbstractReturn migration is key to community recovery from many disasters. Japanese governments have conducted radiation decontamination efforts in the Exclusion Zone designated after the 2011 Fukushima nuclear disaster in order to encourage this outcome. Little is known, however, about the factors that influence post ‐disaster migrants to return, and, if people are relatively unresponsive to decontamination, then the costs of promoting recovery may exceed the benefits. We exploit a unique survey of Fukushima evacuees to determine the factors that influence their decision to return after a disaster. Location‐ specific ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shingo Nagamatsu, Adam Rose, Jonathan Eyer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Persistent Risk ‐Related Worry as a Function of Recalled Exposure to the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill and Prior Trauma
This study examined the nature and predictors of worry about ongoing impacts of the 2010 Deepwater Horizon (DH) oil spill reported by Gulf of Mexico coastal residents. A random sample of 2,520 adult residents of Gulf of Mexico coastal counties were administered a telephone survey in 2016, including items about persistent worry and exposure to DH impacts, prior trauma, residence at the time of the spill, and sociodemographic characteristics. Respondents varied in the amount of worry they reported about ongoing health, social, and economic impacts. Controlling for sociodemographic characteristics, higher exposure to the DH o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andrew M Parker, Melissa L. Finucane, Lynsay Ayer, Rajeev Ramchand, Vanessa Parks, Noreen Clancy Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Inductive Risk, Science, and Values: A Reply to MacGillivray
AbstractThe argument from inductive risk (AIR) is perhaps the most common argument against the value ‐free ideal of science. Brian MacGillivray rejects the AIR (at least as it would apply to risk assessment) and embraces the value‐free ideal. We clarify the issues at stake and argue that MacGillivray's criticisms, although effective against some formulations of the AIR, fail to overcome the ess ential concerns that motivate the AIR. There are inevitable trade‐offs in scientific enquiry that cannot be resolved with any formal methods or general rules. Choices must be made, and values will be involved. It is best to re...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel J. Hicks, P. D. Magnus, Jessey Wright Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Hand ‐Hygiene Mitigation Strategies Against Global Disease Spreading through the Air Transportation Network
AbstractThe risk for a global transmission of flu ‐type viruses is strengthened by the physical contact between humans and accelerated through individual mobility patterns. The Air Transportation System plays a critical role in such transmissions because it is responsible for fast and long‐range human travel, while its building components—the airports—are crowded, confined areas with usually poor hygiene. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and World Health Organization (WHO) consider hand hygiene as the most efficient and cost‐effective way to limit disease propagation. Results from clinical...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christos Nicolaides, Demetris Avraam, Luis Cueto ‐Felgueroso, Marta C. González, Ruben Juanes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Outbreak ‐Based Giardia Dose–Response Model Using Bayesian Hierarchical Markov Chain Monte Carlo Analysis
AbstractGiardia is a zoonotic gastrointestinal parasite responsible for a substantial global public health burden, and quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) is often used to forecast and manage this burden. QMRA requires dose –response models to extrapolate available dose–response data, but the existing model forGiardia ignores valuable dose –response information, particularly data from several well‐documented waterborne outbreaks of giardiasis. The current study updatesGiardia dose –response modeling by synthesizing all available data from outbreaks and experimental studies using a Bayesi...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tucker R. Burch Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Dispositional Factors Affecting Choices Surrounding the Purchase of Insurance and the Taking of Mitigating Measures Against Flooding
AbstractThis research investigated the role of dispositional factors in decisions to purchase insurance and to take mitigating measures against flooding. Two dispositional factors —risk aversion in the domain of losses and time discounting rate—were found to be predictors of the decision to acquire flood insurance. The observation of a relationship between experiment‐based risk attitudes and the decision to insure oneself against flooding replicates a finding of Petroli a et al. The finding that impatience negatively impacts decisions to take out insurance against flooding is novel. However, support was ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Julija Michailova, Tadeusz Tyszka Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Potential Effects of Recall Bias and Selection Bias on the Epidemiological Evidence for the Carcinogenicity of Glyphosate
AbstractGlyphosate is a widely used herbicide worldwide. The International Agency for Research on Cancer in 2015 declared that glyphosate is probably carcinogenic to humans, noting a positive association for non ‐Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL). The principal human data on glyphosate and NHL come from five case–control studies and two cohort studies. The case–control studies are at risk of recall bias resulting from information on exposure to pesticides being collected from cases and controls based on their me mories. In addition, two of the case–control studies are additionally at risk of a form of selection bi...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kenny Crump Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

An Integrated Approach for Modeling Sustainability Risks in Freight Transportation Systems
This study addresses these research gaps and contributes in a threefold manner. First, a total of 36 potential sustainability risks related to FTSs are identified and uniquely classified into seven categories using a rigourous approach. Second, the research proposes two prominent perspectives, namely, ontological and epistemological perspectives to understand risks and develops a novel framework for managing sustainability risks in FTSs. Third, a novel approach by integrating fuzzy evidential reasoning algorithm (FERA) with expected utility theory is developed to quantitatively model and profile sustainability risk for dif...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Divya Choudhary, Ravi Shankar, Alok Choudhary Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probability Size Matters: The Effect of Foreground ‐Only versus Foreground+Background Graphs on Risk Aversion Diminishes with Larger Probabilities
AbstractGraphs are increasingly recommended for improving decision ‐making and promoting risk‐avoidant behaviors. Graphs that depict only the number of people affected by a risk (“foreground‐only” displays) tend to increase perceived risk and risk aversion (e.g., willingness to get vaccinated), as compared to graphs that also depict the number of people a t risk for harm (“foreground+background” displays). However, previous research examining these “foreground‐only effects” has focused on relatively low‐probability risks (
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yasmina Okan, Eric R. Stone, Jonathan Parillo, W ändi Bruine de Bruin, Andrew M. Parker Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Operational Networks: Adaptation to Extreme Events in China
This study examines organizational networks as instruments for mobilizing collective response to extreme events, but effective design has been elusive. Governments have focused on planned networks to anticipate risk before hazards occur; communities have formed emergent networks as voluntary efforts after the event. Using a framework of complex adaptive systems, we identify operational networks that adapt to their immediate context in real time, using technologies to support the search, exchange, and feedback of information to enable informed, collective action. Applying mixed research methods —documentary analysis o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louise K. Comfort, Haibo Zhang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Assessment of the Failure Risk of the Europa Clipper Spacecraft due to Radiations
This article is based on a top ‐down approach (mission → system → subsystems → components) to model the probability of mission failure. The focus here is on the case where the (uncertain) radiation load exceeds the (uncertain) capacity of critical subsystems of the spacecraft. The model is an illustrative quantification o f the uncertainties about (1) the complex external radiation environment in repeated exposures, (2) the effectiveness of the shielding in different zones of the spacecraft, and (3) the components’ capacities, by modeling all three as dynamic random variables. A simulation including ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yiqing Ding, Sean Duggan, Matthew Ferranti, Michael Jagadpramana, Rushal Rege, Yuriy Zhovtobryukh, M. ‐Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Human Factors Analysis for Maritime Accidents Based on a Dynamic Fuzzy Bayesian Network
AbstractHuman factors are widely regarded to be highly contributing factors to maritime accident prevention system failures. The conventional methods for human factor assessment, especially quantitative techniques, such as fault trees and bow ‐ties, are static and cannot deal with models with uncertainty, which limits their application to human factors risk analysis. To alleviate these drawbacks, in the present study, a new human factor analysis framework called multidimensional analysis model of accident causes (MAMAC) is introduced. MAMAC combines the human factors analysis and classification system and business proces...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Weiliang Qiao, Yu Liu, Xiaoxue Ma, Yang Liu Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk or Efficacy? How Psychological Distance Influences Climate Change Engagement
AbstractConstrual ‐level theory suggests that high‐level abstract features weigh more in people's decision‐making at farther distance, while low‐level concrete features weigh more at closer distance. Based on this, we propose that psychological distance will influence the effect of risk versus efficacy framin g on climate change engagement. In particular, risk perception related to the end‐state expectancy of climate change mitigation should influence people's climate change engagement at farther distance. In contrast, efficacy perception related to the perceived feasibility of attaining end‐state go als should...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Haoran Chu, Janet Z. Yang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Against the De Minimis Principle
AbstractAccording to the class ofde minimis decision principles, risks can be ignored (or at least treated very differently from other risks) if the risk is sufficiently small. In this article, we argue that ade minimis threshold has no place in a normative theory of decision making, because the application of the principle will either recommend ignoring risks that should not be ignored (e.g., the sure death of a person) or it cannot be used by ordinary bounded and information ‐constrained agents. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Bj örn Lundgren, H. Orri Stefánsson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Global Transmission of Live Polioviruses: Updated Dynamic Modeling of the Polio Endgame
AbstractNearly 20 years after the year 2000 target for global wild poliovirus (WPV) eradication, live polioviruses continue to circulate with all three serotypes posing challenges for the polio endgame. We updated a global differential equation ‐based poliovirus transmission and stochastic risk model to include programmatic and epidemiological experience through January 2020. We used the model to explore the likely dynamics of poliovirus transmission for 2019–2023, which coincides with a new Global Polio Eradication Initiative Strategi c Plan. The model stratifies the global population into 72 blocks, each containi...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Mark A. Pallansch, Steven G. F. Wassilak, Stephen L. Cochi, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimating Evacuation Shelter Deficits in the Houston –Galveston Metropolitan Area
In this study, the evacuation shelter capacity of the Houston –Galveston Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) was spatially assessed and shelter deficits in the region were estimated. These data provide essential information needed to eliminate shelter deficits and ensure a successful evacuation from a future storm. Spatial statistical methods—Global Moran' s I, Anselin Local Moran's I (Local Indicators of Spatial Association [LISA]), and Hot Spot Analysis (Getis‐Ord Gi*) were used to assess for regional spatial autocorrelation and clustering of evacuation shelters in the Houston–Galveston MSA. Shelter d...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ibraheem M. Karaye, Courtney Thompson, Maria Perez ‐Patron, Nicholas Taylor, Jennifer A. Horney Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Situated Food Safety Risk and the Influence of Social Norms
AbstractPrevious studies of risk behavior observed weak or inconsistent relationships between risk perception and risk ‐taking. One aspect that has often been neglected in such studies is the situational context in which risk behavior is embedded: Even though a person may perceive a behavior as risky, the social norms governing the situation may work as a counteracting force, overriding the influence of risk perce ption. Three food context studies are reported. In Study 1 (N = 200), we assess how norm strength varies across different social situations, relate the variation in norm strength to the social characteristics o...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nina Veflen, Joachim Scholderer, Solveig Langsrud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interdisciplinary Approach to Building Functionality for Weather Hazards
AbstractIt is estimated that in the United States, people spend 90% of their time in buildings. In order to ensure quality of life for communities, we propose a human ‐centric design approach to building “functionality.” “Functionality” is defined as the set of “essential services” to meet occupant needs for safety and well‐being. These services include lighting, heating and cooling, ventilation, water supply, and wastewater management. At present , a multidisciplinary top‐down approach exists where owners dictate the building operations to architects. Our central thesis is that a ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amy A. Kim, Dorothy A. Reed Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Uncertain Risk Assessment and Management: Case Studies of the Application of the Precautionary Principle in Portugal
This study intends to clarify how the precautionary principle (PP) has been interpreted and applied by the courts in Portugal in the analysis of conflicts associated with uncertain and serious potential risks to human health and the environment. It also aims to contribute to the debate of when and how to apply precautionary measures. To this end, recent court cases in the areas of waste incineration, high ‐voltage power lines, as well as dam and wind farm construction were considered. The degree of consistency in the courts’ decisions and their reasons in the different judicial bodies was analyzed with the support ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Vasco Barroso Gon çalves Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Safety Regulations and the Uncertainty of Work ‐Related Road Accident Loss: The Triple Identity of Chinese Local Governments Under Principal–Agent Framework
This study examines how government safety regulations affect the uncertainty of work ‐related road accident loss (UWRAL) by considering the multi‐identity of local governments in the relationship among the central government, the local governments, and enterprises. Fixed effects panel models and mediation analyses with bootstrapping were conducted to test the hypotheses using Ch inese provincial panel data from 2008 to 2014. Given the complexity and nonlinear characteristics of road safety systems, a new approach based on self‐organized criticality theory is proposed to measure the uncertainty of road accident loss f...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Liangdong Lu, Hong Huang, Jiuchang Wei, Jia Xu Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Work Conditions, Social Incorporations, and Foodborne Diseases Risk: Reflections About the (Non)Compliance of Food Safety Practices
This study highlights the necessity of creating environments that address food safety, which means being able to perform a service properly. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rayane Stephanie Gomes Freitas, Diogo Thimoteo Cunha, Elke Stedefeldt Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 2, February 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 2, Page 215-217, February 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From The Editors Source Type: research

People, Pipelines, and Probabilities: Clarifying Significance and Uncertainty in Environmental Impact Assessments
AbstractDeterminations of significance play a pivotal role in environmental impact assessments because they point decision makers to the predicted effects of an action most deserving of attention and further study. Impact predictions are always subject to uncertainty because they rely on estimates of future consequences. Yet uncertainty is often neglected or treated in a perfunctory manner as part of the characterization, evaluation, and communication of anticipated consequences and their significance. Proposals to construct fossil fuel pipelines in North America provide a highly visible example; casual treatment of how un...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robin Gregory, Theresa Satterfield, David R. Boyd Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Quantifying the Economic Impact of Hydraulic Fracturing Proppant Selection in Light of Occupational Exposure Risk and Functional Requirements
This study quantifies the relative risks or benefits to human health by the use of these proppants through an economic analysis considering the health‐related economic impact and its technical attributes. Results show that the use of each ton of silica proppant results in $123 of external costs from fatalities and nonfatal illness arising due to exposure to silica for a crew handing 60,000 tons of proppants. If these health‐related externalities were incorporated into the cost, silica proppant could be economically replaced by less harmful, more expensive alternatives for hydraulic fracturing crews handling less than 6...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sidharth Agrawal, Jeremy M. Gernand Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Social Influence, Risk and Benefit Perceptions, and the Acceptability of Risky Energy Technologies: An Explanatory Model of Nuclear Power Versus Shale Gas
AbstractRisky energy technologies are often controversial and debates around them are polarized; in such debates public acceptability is key. Research on public acceptability has emphasized the importance of intrapersonal factors but has largely neglected the influence of interpersonal factors. In an online survey (N = 948) with a representative sample of the United Kingdom, we therefore integrate interpersonal factors (i.e., social influence as measured by social networks) with two risky energy technologies that differ in familiarity (nuclear power vs. shale gas) to examine how these factors explain risk and benefit perce...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 12, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Judith I. M. Groot, Elisa Schweiger, Iljana Schubert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Post ‐Earthquake Ignition Probabilities Considering Inter‐Earthquake Heterogeneity
AbstractPost ‐earthquake fires are high‐consequence events with extensive damage potential. They are also low‐frequency events, so their nature remains underinvestigated. One difficulty in modeling post‐earthquake ignition probabilities is reducing the model uncertainty attributed to the scarce source da ta. The data scarcity problem has been resolved by pooling the data indiscriminately collected from multiple earthquakes. However, this approach neglects the inter‐earthquake heterogeneity in the regional and seasonal characteristics, which is indispensable for risk assessment of future post‐ear thquake fires. ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 12, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Keisuke Himoto Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 2, February 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 2, Page 215-217, February 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 7, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From The Editors Source Type: research

An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Cybersecurity
AbstractRisk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organizations to deal with cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritize the defense of their assets, and decide what security controls should be implemented. Many risk analysis methods are present in cybersecurity models, compliance frameworks, and international standards. However, most of them employ risk matrices, which suffer shortcomings that may lead to suboptimal resource allocations. We propose a comprehensive framework for cybersecurity risk analysis, covering the presence of both intentional and nonintentional threats and the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David Rios Insua, Aitor Couce ‐Vieira, Jose A. Rubio, Wolter Pieters, Katsiaryna Labunets, Daniel G. Rasines Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Critical Time, Space, and Decision ‐Making Agent Considerations in Human‐Centered Interdisciplinary Hurricane‐Related Research
This article discusses and illustrates the need for alignment of decision‐making agents, time, and space for interdisciplinary research on hurricanes, particularly evacuation and the immediate aftermath. We specifically consider the fields of sociobehavioral science, transportation engineering, power systems engineering, and decision support systems in this context. These disciplines have historically adopted different decision‐making agents, ranging from individuals to households to utilities and government agencies. The fields largely converged to the local level for studies’ spatial scales, with some extension...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Pamela Murray ‐Tuite, Y. Gurt Ge, Christopher Zobel, Roshanak Nateghi, Haizhong Wang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Four Decades of Transformation in Decision Analytic Practice for Societal Risk Management
AbstractThe formal mathematical structure for decision making under uncertainty was first expressed in Savage's axioms over 60 years ago. But while the underlyingnormative concepts for decision making under uncertainty remain constant, thepractice of applying these concepts in real ‐world settings, as conducted by decision analysis (DA) specialists working with agencies and interested parties, has seen a major transformation in recent decades. The purpose of this article is to provide perspectives that characterize and interpret how DA practice for societal risk management q uestions has grown and is being transformed ov...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Timothy McDaniels Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Coming of Age of Risk Governance
AbstractProposed as an advanced conceptualization of how to handle risk, risk governance begins with the critique and expansion of the traditional idea and standard practices of risk analysis. In developments over the last two decades, proponents of a more integrative approach on governing risks have moved further away from distinct conceptions of risk assessment, risk management, and risk communication and toward the processes and institutions that guide, restrain, and integrate collective activities of handling risk. In early formulations of what risk governance entails, the superiority of the interplay between risk eval...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andreas Klinke, Ortwin Renn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Radon as a Tracer of Lung Changes Induced by Smoking
AbstractAfter smoking, exposure to radon and its progeny is the second leading cause of lung cancer. The probability of inducing lung carcinomas by inhaled radon progeny depends on the deposited radiation dose, and is significantly affected by physiological and morphometric changes induced by smoking. Due to irritation of the airways, the inhalation of cigarette smoke leads to the hyperproduction of mucus. Two concurrent processes occur: on one hand, increased production of mucus protects the target cells against radiation damage; on the other hand, in the case of long ‐term smokers, a chronic lung obstruction develops, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Radoslav B öhm, Antonín Sedlák, Martin Bulko, Karol Holý Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recognizing Structural Nonidentifiability: When Experiments Do Not Provide Information About Important Parameters and Misleading Models Can Still Have Great Fit
This study explores illustrative examples of structural nonidentifiability and its implications using mechanistically derived models (for repeated presence/absence analyses and dose –response ofEscherichia coli O157:H7 and norovirus) drawn from quantitative microbial risk assessment. Following algebraic proof of nonidentifiability in these examples, profile likelihood analysis and Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo with uniform priors are illustrated as tools to help detect model parameters that are not strongly identifiable. It is shown that identifiability should be considered during experimental design and ethics a...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip J. Schmidt, Monica B. Emelko, Mary E. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Proximity (Mis)perception: Public Awareness of Nuclear, Refinery, and Fracking Sites
AbstractWhether on grounds of perceived safety, aesthetics, or overall quality of life, residents may wish to be aware of nearby energy sites such as nuclear reactors, refineries, and fracking wells. Yet people are not always accurate in their impressions of proximity. Indeed, our data show that only 54% of Americans living within 25 miles of a nuclear site say they do, and even fewer fracking ‐proximal (30%) and refinery‐proximal (24%) residents respond accurately. In this article, we analyze factors that could either help people form more accurate perceptions or distort their impressions of proximity. We evaluate the...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Benjamin A. Lyons, Heather Akin, Natalie Jomini Stroud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of Multicriteria Decision Analysis Algorithms in Food Safety: A Case Study on Emerging Zoonoses Prioritization
AbstractDecision making in food safety is a complex process that involves several criteria of different nature like the expected reduction in the number of illnesses, the potential economic or health ‐related cost, or even the environmental impact of a given policy or intervention. Several multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) algorithms are currently used, mostly individually, in food safety to rank different options in a multifactorial environment. However, the selection of the MCDA algorit hm is a decision problem on its own because different methods calculate different rankings. The aim of this study was to compare ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alberto Garre, Geraldine Bou é, Pablo S. Fernández, Jeanne‐Marie Membré, Jose A. Egea Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Disaster Risk Management Policies and the Measurement of Resilience for Philippine Regions
AbstractHow can a government prioritize disaster risk management policies across regions and types of interventions? Using an economic model to assess welfare risk and resilience to disasters, this article systematically tackles the questions: (1) How much asset and welfare risks does each region in the Philippines face from riverine flood disasters? (2) How resilient is each region to riverine flood disasters? (3) What are, per region, the possible interventions to strengthen resilience to riverine flood disasters and what will be their measured benefit? We study the regions of the Philippines to demonstrate the channels ...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rio Yonson, Ilan Noy Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research