Trust and Risk Perception: A Critical Review of the Literature
AbstractMany studies in the field of risk perception and acceptance of hazards include trust as an explanatory variable. Despite this, the importance of trust has often been questioned. The relevant issue is not only whether trust is crucial but also the form of trust that people rely on in a given situation. In this review, I discuss various trust models and the relationship between trust and affect heuristics. I conclude that the importance of trust varies by hazard and respondent group. Most of the studies use surveys that provide limited information about causality. Future research should focus more on experiments that...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Review of Recent Advances in Benchmark Dose Methodology
AbstractIn this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose –response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user‐friendly software and the lack...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Signe M. Jensen, Felix M. Kluxen, Christian Ritz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams
This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate ‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requireme nts for continuous fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R. Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Network Reconfiguration for Increasing Transportation System Resilience Under Extreme Events
AbstractEvacuating residents out of affected areas is an important strategy for mitigating the impact of natural disasters. However, the resulting abrupt increase in the travel demand during evacuation causes severe congestions across the transportation system, which thereby interrupts other commuters' regular activities. In this article, a bilevel mathematical optimization model is formulated to address this issue, and our research objective is to maximize the transportation system resilience and restore its performance through two network reconfiguration schemes: contraflow (also referred to as lane reversal) and crossin...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xiaoge Zhang, Sankaran Mahadevan, Kai Goebel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interventions Targeting Deep Tissue Lymph Nodes May Not Effectively Reduce the Risk of Salmonellosis from Ground Pork Consumption: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractThe inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated withSalmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter ‐to‐table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established. The model predicted an average of 45 cases of salmonellosis (95% CI = [19, 71]) per 100,000...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 30, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M. O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S. Dickson, H. Scott Hurd, Bing Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 5, May 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 5, Page 957-958, May 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?
AbstractThe article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle ‐related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer. This may indicate that these respondents care ab...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adoption of Individual Flood Damage Mitigation Measures in New York City: An Extension of Protection Motivation Theory
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood ‐prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can have an important influence on individual decision making under risk, such as risk attitudes, time preferenc es, social norms, trust, and local flood risk management policies. Our results in relation to our main hypothesis are as follows. Individuals who live in high flood risk ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 25, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: W. J. Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Hans Moel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Shannon Entropy for Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Economic Disparity
This article introduces the quantification of Shannon entropy for income inequality across scales, including national ‐, subnational‐, and city‐level data. The probabilistic principles of Shannon entropy provide a new interpretation for uncertainty and risk related to economic disparity. Entropy and information‐based conflict rise as world incomes converge. High‐entropy instances can resemble both happy a nd prosperous societies as well as a socialist–communist social structure. Low entropy signals high‐risk tipping points for anomaly and conflict detection with higher confidence. Finally, spatial–t...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 22, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saurabh Mishra, Bilal M. Ayyub Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products
AbstractOver time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic ‐talc–containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were be low levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Burns, Christy A. Barlow, Amber M. Banducci, Kenneth M. Unice, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research
AbstractCultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations —hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist—produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky'sRisk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior. We explain what CT is and how it developed; describe and evaluate its contribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson, Brendon Swedlow Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Causation Analysis of Risk Coupling of Gas Explosion Accident in Chinese Underground Coal Mines
AbstractThe coal mine production industry is a complex sociotechnical system with interactive relationships among several risk factors. Currently, causation analysis of gas explosion accidents is mainly focused on the aspects of human error and equipment fault, while neglecting the interactive relationships among risk factors. A new method is proposed through risk coupling. First, the meaning ofrisk coupling of a gas explosion is defined, and types of risk coupling are classified. Next, the coupled relationship and coupled effects among risk factors are explored through combining the interpretative structural modeling (ISM...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jinjia Zhang, Kaili Xu, Greg You, Beibei Wang, Lei Zhao Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research
AbstractCultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations —hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist—produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky'sRisk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior. We explain what CT is and how it developed; describe and evaluate its contribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson, Brendon Swedlow Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Vicki Bier: A More Sensible Way to View Risk
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, Page 744-748, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, Page 741-743, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity
AbstractThis perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy ‐governed secure collaboration; (3) security‐metrics–driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior. Howev...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Natalie M. Scala, Allison C. Reilly, Paul L. Goethals, Michel Cukier Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Managing Safety ‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry
AbstractLow ‐probability, high‐impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low‐probability, high‐impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry‐wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety‐related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports acr...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christian C. Blanco, Felipe Caro, Charles J. Corbett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Peak Exposures in Epidemiologic Studies and Cancer Risks: Considerations for Regulatory Risk Assessment
AbstractWe review approaches for characterizing “peak” exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose–response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to “peak” exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in re...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Harvey Checkoway, Peter S. J. Lees, Linda D. Dell, P. Robinan Gentry, Kenneth A. Mundt Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control
AbstractIn this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patie...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mart ín López‐García, Marco‐Felipe King, Catherine J. Noakes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Residents ’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan
This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents ’ experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they wer e focusing on mentally bracing themselves. (2) Residents perceived t...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kazuya Nakayachi, Julia S. Becker, Sally H. Potter, Maximilian Dixon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Trends in Multidisciplinary Hazard and Disaster Research: A 1982 –2017 Case Study
This article provides unique perspectives on how to better allocate funds through extensive topic and funding analysis. This work is a brief analysis of trends in the hazard and disaster research community, focusing on multidisciplinary project teams and their correlation to funding amounts and research areas. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Adam Behrendt, Kathryn Lukasiewicz, Daniel Seaberg, Jun Zhuang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Experiments in Lay Cues to the Relative Validity of Positions Taken by Disputing Groups of Scientists
AbstractRisk analysis and hazard management can prompt varied intra ‐scientific disputes, some which have or will become public, and thus potentially available for lay judgments of the relative validity of the positions taken. As attentive laypeople may include elites as well as the general public, understanding whether and how cues to credibility of disputing gro ups of scientists might shape those lay judgments can be important. Relevant literatures from philosophy, social studies of science, risk analysis, and elsewhere have identified potential cues, but not tested their absolute or relative effects. Two experiments ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 25, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Definition and Categorization System for Advanced Materials: The Foundation for Risk ‐Informed Environmental Health and Safety Testing
In this study, we aim to establish a practitioner ‐driven definition for AdMs and a practitioner‐validated framework for categorizing AdMs into conceptual groupings based on material characteristics. Results from multiple workshops and interviews with practitioners provide consistent differentiation between AdMs and conventional materials, offe r functional nomenclature for application science, and provide utility for future ESOH risk assessment prioritization. The definition and categorization framework established here serve as a first step in determining if and when there is a need for specific ESOH and regulatory s...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 25, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alan Kennedy, Jonathon Brame, Taylor Rycroft, Matthew Wood, Valerie Zemba, Charles Weiss, Matthew Hull, Cary Hill, Charles Geraci, Igor Linkov Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run, Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark
AbstractEffective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre ‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released aStay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide pr...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 20, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Julia M. Pearce, Lasse Lindekilde, David Parker, M. Brooke Rogers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Modular Bayesian Salmonella Source Attribution Model for Sparse Data
AbstractSeveral statistical models for salmonella source attribution have been presented in the literature. However, these models have often been found to be sensitive to the model parameterization, as well as the specifics of the data set used. The Bayesian salmonella source attribution model presented here was developed to be generally applicable with small and sparse annual data sets obtained over several years. The full Bayesian model was modularized into three parts (an exposure model, a subtype distribution model, and an epidemiological model) in order to separately estimate unknown parameters in each module. The pro...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 20, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Antti Mikkel ä, Jukka Ranta, Pirkko Tuominen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System
AbstractMultiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastruct...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 20, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jingjing Kong, Slobodan P. Simonovic Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mega ‐Review: Causality Books Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Douglas A. Popken, and Richard X. Sun. Springer, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Vol. 270, 2018, $229, xxii+588. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie. New York: Basic Books, 2018, $32, x+419. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference by Judea Pearl, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000, 2nd edition, 2009, $64.99, xix+465.
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: D. Warner North Tags: Book Reviews Source Type: research

Toward Convergence Disaster Research: Building Integrative Theories Using Simulation
AbstractScholars across disciplines use simulation methods as tools to build theories; however, the full potential of simulation methods has not been fully used for building theories in convergence disaster research. Simulation methods could provide four unique opportunities for building theories for convergence disaster research. First, simulation methods could help researchers model the underlying mechanisms of disaster phenomena by enabling integration of qualitative and quantitative data. Second, they could help researchers specify and characterize the mechanisms affecting specific disaster phenomena by facilitating in...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ali Mostafavi, N. Emel Ganapati Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk Communication as Government Agency Organizational Practice
This article investigates how public officials at six government agencies in Sweden understand and relate to risk communication and its uses in the context of agency organizational work on policy and regulation. Qualitative interviews were used to explore the practitioners ’ views on some key topics in the academic literature on risk communication. A main finding is that there is little consensus on what the goals of risk communication are; if, and how, uncertainty should be communicated; and what role is to be played by transparency in risk communication. However, the practitioners agree that dissemination (top down...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Åsa Boholm Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cigarette Smoking and Multiple Health Risk Behaviors: A Latent Class Regression Model to Identify a Profile of Young Adolescents
AbstractCigarette smoking is often established during adolescence when other health ‐related risk behaviors tend to occur. The aim of the study was to further investigate the hypothesis that risky health behaviors tend to cluster together and to identify distinctive profiles of young adolescents based on their smoking habits. To explore the idea that smoking behavior can predict membership in a specific risk profile of adolescents, with heavy smokers being more likely to exhibit other risk behaviors, we reanalyzed the data from the 2014 Health Behaviour in School‐Aged Children Italian survey of about 60,000 first‐ an...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 12, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lorena Charrier, Paola Berchialla, Paola Dalmasso, Alberto Borraccino, Patrizia Lemma, Franco Cavallo Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Time ‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention
AbstractWe propose an innovative time ‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yamin Huang, P. H. A. J. M. Gelder Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, Page 509-510, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Conflict of Interest Mitigation Procedures May Have Little Influence on the Perceived Procedural Fairness of Risk ‐Related Research
AbstractTwo between ‐subject experiments explored perceived conflict of interest (COI)—operationalized as perceived procedural unfairness—in a hypothetical public–private research partnership to study the health risks of trans fats. Perceived fairness was measured as subjects’ perceptions that health research ers would be willing to listen to a range of voices and minimize bias (i.e., COI) in the context of a research project. Experiment 1 (n = 1,263) randomly assigned research subjects to a partnership that included (1) a combination of an industry partner, a university partner, and a nongovernme...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C. Besley, Nagwan R. Zahry, Aaron McCright, Kevin C. Elliott, Norbert E. Kaminski, Joseph D. Martin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Feelings About Fracking: Using the Affect Heuristic to Understand Opposition to Coal Seam Gas Production
AbstractThe rapid expansion of coal seam gas (CSG) extraction across Australia has polarized public opinion about the risks, benefits, and the future of the industry. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to assess the impact of CSG messaging on opposition to the CSG industry. Residents of a major Australian city (N = 549), aged between 21 and 87 years, were randomly assigned to view one of three brief video messages (pro ‐CSG, anti‐CSG, or a neutral control) sourced from the Internet. They then completed measures assessing CSG affective associations, perceived risks and benefits of CSG, and degree of opposit...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Donald W. Hine, Kirsten Clarke, Anthony D. G. Marks, Methuen I. Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities
AbstractMost existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Ca...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seyed Javad Hashemi, Faisal Khan, Salim Ahmed Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis
AbstractProbabilistic seismic risk analysis is a well ‐established method in the insurance industry for modeling portfolio losses from earthquake events. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown. However, so far, location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. In this article, we propose a novel fram ework for treatment of location uncertainty. As a case study, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling typical real‐world cases were created. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk i...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christoph Scheingraber, Martin A. K äser Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, Page 509-510, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Time ‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention
AbstractWe propose an innovative time ‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yamin Huang, P. H. A. J. M. Gelder Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Farmers ’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging
AbstractResearchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent ‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using anin situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kieran M. Findlater, Terre Satterfield, Milind Kandlikar Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber ‐Physical‐Social Networks
This article develops a framework to address enterprise resilience for two modes of disruptions—the first being the influence of scenarios on priorities and the second being the influence of multiple groups of stak eholders on priorities. The innovation of this study is to obtain the advantages of integrating two recent approaches:scenario ‐based preferences modeling andstakeholder mapping. Public agencies, grid operators, plug ‐in electric vehicle owners, and vehicle manufacturers are the four groups of stakeholders that are considered in this framework, along with the influence of four scenarios on priorities. ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ayedh Almutairi, John P. Wheeler, David L. Slutzky, James H. Lambert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research