“Modest doubt is called the beacon of the wise”—Incorporating uncertainty in risk analysis from Shakespeare to today
Abstract“Modest doubt is call'd the beacon of the wise.”—William Shakespeare,Troilus and Cressida. Although the character Hector warns his fellow Trojans with this line not to engage in war against the Greeks, Shakespeare's works are replete with characters who do not incorporate modest doubt, or any consideration of uncertainty, in their risk decisions. Perhaps Shakespeare was simply a keen observer of human nature. Although risk science has developed tremendously over the last five decades (and scientific inquiry over five centuries), the human mind still frequently defaults to conviction about certain beliefs, abs...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 4, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Felicia Wu,
Benjamin D. Trump Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Review of animal transmission experiments of respiratory viruses: Implications for transmission risk of SARS ‐COV‐2 in humans via different routes
AbstractExploring transmission risk of different routes has major implications for epidemic control. However, disciplinary boundaries have impeded the dissemination of epidemic information, have caused public panic about “air transmission,” “air-conditioning transmission,” and “environment-to-human transmission,” and have triggered “hygiene theater.” Animal experiments provide experimental evidence for virus transmission, but more attention is paid to whether transmission is driven by droplets or aer osols and using the dichotomy to describe most transmission events. Here, according to characteristics of ex...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ying Li,
Ning Mao,
Lei Guo,
Luyao Guo,
Linlin Chen,
Li Zhao,
Qingqin Wang,
Enshen Long Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Data ‐driven predictive modeling in risk assessment: Challenges and directions for proper uncertainty representation
AbstractData-driven predictive modeling is increasingly being used in risk assessments. While such modeling may provide improved consequence predictions and probability estimates, it also comes with challenges. One is that the modeling and its output does not measure and represent uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, that is, “epistemic uncertainty.” In this article, we demonstrate this point by conceptually linking the main elements and output of data-driven predictive models with the main elements of a general risk description, thereby placing data-driven predictive modeling on a risk science foundation. This allow ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 24, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kaia St ødle,
Roger Flage,
Seth D. Guikema,
Terje Aven Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Review of Atlas of Global Change Risk of Population and Economic Systems By Peijun Shi (ed). Springer Nature Singapore Pte. Ltd., Gateway East, Singapore 189721, Singapore, pp. xx+278. ISBN: 978 ‐981‐16‐6690‐2 (hbk), 978‐981‐16‐6691‐9 (ebk)
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Feng Kong Tags: BOOK REVIEW Source Type: research
Insights into the complementarity of natural disaster insurance purchases and risk reduction behavior
This study offers a comprehensive assessment of factors related to the separate uptake of natural disaster insurance and the flood-proofing of homes as well as why people may take both of these measures together. We use data from a survey conducted in Paris, France, in 2018, after several flood events, for a representative sample of 2976 residents facing different levels of flood risk. We perform both main effects regressions and interaction analyses to reveal that home adaptation to flooding is positively associated with comprehensive insurance coverage, which includes financial protection against natural disasters. Furth...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 16, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Samuel Rufat,
Peter J. Robinson,
Wouter J. W. Botzen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Assumptions, uncertainty, and catastrophic/existential risk: National risk assessments need improved methods and stakeholder engagement
AbstractTwo key shortcomings of national risk assessments (NRAs) are: (1) lack of justification and transparency around important foundational assumptions of the process, (2) omission of almost all the largest scale risks. Using a demonstration set of risks, we illustrate how NRA process assumptions around time horizon, discount rate, scenario choice, and decision rule impact on risk characterization and therefore any subsequent ranking. We then identify a neglected set of large-scale risks that are seldom included in NRAs, namely global catastrophic risks and existential threats to humanity. Under a highly conservative ap...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matt Boyd,
Nick Wilson Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Quantitative risk analysis of treatment plans for patients with tumor by mining historical similar patients from electronic health records using federated learning
AbstractThe determination of a treatment plan for a target patient with tumor is a difficult problem due to the existence of heterogeneity in patients ’ responses, incomplete information about tumor states, and asymmetric knowledge between doctors and patients, and so on. In this paper, a method for quantitative risk analysis of treatment plans for patients with tumor is proposed. To reduce the impacts of the heterogeneity in patients’ respons es on analysis results, the method conducts risk analysis by mining historical similar patients from Electronic Health Records (EHRs) in multiple hospitals using federated learni...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 12, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yang Liu,
Donghai Bi Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Facilitating the application of systems ‐theoretic process analysis in healthcare: Creating control structures using process maps
AbstractSystems-theoretic process analysis (STPA) is a prospective safety assessment tool increasingly applied in healthcare. A problem hampering STPA proliferation is the difficulty of modeling systems for analysis by creating control structures. In this work, a method is proposed to use existing process maps —commonly available in healthcare—when creating a control structure. The proposed method entails (1) extract information from the process map, (2) determine the modeling boundary of the control structure, (3) transfer the extracted information to the control structure, (4) add additional informa tion to complete ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 11, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lawrence Wong,
Todd Pawlicki Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Risk communication in multistakeholder engagement: A novel spatial econometric model
AbstractExisting studies on the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) neglect the inverse effect of pollution transfer from environmental regulation interactions on pollution reduction from a risk analysis perspective. Based on the regional differentiated attitudes on the environmental regulation reached in risk communication by the risk awareness biases of multiple interest groups, this article clarifies the causality between risk communication and risk transfer based on multistakeholder engagement processes; furthermore, the article incorporates the simultaneous action of the technological innovation effect and pollution ris...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 11, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shun Jia Liu,
Jianping Li,
Dengsheng Wu,
Xiaoqian Zhu,
Xin Long Xu Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Are the good spared? Corporate social responsibility as insurance against cyber security incidents
AbstractDespite the increasing consensus that socially responsible behavior can act as insurance against externally induced shocks, supporting evidence remains somewhat inconsistent. Our study provides a clear demonstration of the insurance-like properties of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in preserving corporate financial performance (CFP), in the event of a data (cyber) breach. Exploring a sample of 230 breached firms, we find that data breaches lead to significantly negative CFP outcomes for low CSR firms, with the dynamic being particularly pronounced in consumer-sensitive industries. Further, we show that firms...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 8, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Vassiliki Bamiatzi,
Michael Dowling,
Fabian Gogolin,
Fearghal Kearney,
Samuel Vigne Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Do Confucian values and working experience matter? The impact of provincial governors ’ characteristics on the management level of major road accidents in China
This study uncovers that the MLMRA is associated with governors’ tenure, central back ground, and Confucian values. We further document that the effect of Confucianism on the MLMRA is stronger when traffic regulation pressure is high. This study has the potential to advance our understanding of the impact of leaders’ characteristics on organizational outcomes in the public sector. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 4, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hong Huang,
Tingting Liu,
Ruiju Yang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 3, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Ragnar L öfstedt: Pursuit of an international risk analysis policy agenda
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 3, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg,
Karen Lowrie Tags: EDITORIAL Source Type: research
Book Review of The Alignment Problem: Machine Learning and Human Values by Brian Christian
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 3, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Louis Anthony Cox Tags: BOOK REVIEW Source Type: research
