Community ‐Driven Hypothesis Testing: A Solution for the Tragedy of the Anticommons
Shared ownership of property and resources is a longstanding challenge throughout history that has been amplifying with the increasing development of industrial and postindustrial societies. Where governments, project planners, and commercial developers seek to develop new infrastructure, industrial projects, and various other land‐and resource‐intensive tasks, veto power shared by various local stakeholders can complicate or halt progress. Risk communication has been used as an attempt to address stakeholder concerns in these contexts, but has demonstrated shortcomings. These coordination failures between project plan...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jos é Manuel Palma‐Oliveira, Benjamin D. Trump, Matthew D. Wood, Igor Linkov Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Prioritization in the Food Domain Using Deliberative and Survey Methods: Differences between Experts and Laypeople
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 504-524, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 472-488, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 504-524, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 472-488, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Wildfire Policy in Mediterranean France: How Far is it Efficient and Sustainable?
A new fire policy reinforcing aggressive fire suppression was established in Mediterranean France in response to the devastating wildfires of the 1990s, but to what extent this has changed fire activity yet remains poorly understood. For this purpose, we compared the number and location of ignitions and of burned areas between two 20‐year periods (1975–1994 vs. 1995–2014), in parallel to the changes in fuel covering, human activity promoting ignitions, and fire weather. The number of fires decreased almost continuously since 1975, but sharply after 1994, suggesting an effect of better fire prevention due to t...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 4, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Curt, Thibaut Frejaville Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

“Birds of a Feather” Fail Together: Exploring the Nature of Dependency in SME Defaults
This article studies the effects of incorporating the interdependence among London small business defaults into a risk analysis framework using the data just before the financial crisis. We propose an extension from standard scoring models to take into account the spatial dimensions and the demographic characteristics of small and medium‐sized enterprises (SMEs), such as legal form, industry sector, and number of employees. We estimate spatial probit models using different distance matrices based only on the spatial location or on an interaction between spatial locations and demographic characteristics. We find that the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Raffaella Calabrese, Galina Andreeva, Jake Ansell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness
We present an analysis of integrated biosecurity risk into Australia, based on flights and shipping data from each global geopolitical region, and an adaptation of the “range bagging” method to determine environmental matching between regions. Here, we describe global patterns of environmental matching and highlight those regions with many physical connections. We classify patterns of global invasion risk (high to low) into Australian states and territories. We validate our analysis by comparison with global presence data for 844 phytophagous insect pest species, and produce a list of high‐risk species not pr...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert C. Cope, Joshua V. Ross, Talia A. Wittmann, Michael J. Watts, Phillip Cassey Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Hazard Analysis and Safety Requirements for Small Drone Operations: To What Extent Do Popular Drones Embed Safety?
Currently, published risk analyses for drones refer mainly to commercial systems, use data from civil aviation, and are based on probabilistic approaches without suggesting an inclusive list of hazards and respective requirements. Within this context, this article presents: (1) a set of safety requirements generated from the application of the systems theoretic process analysis (STPA) technique on a generic small drone system; (2) a gap analysis between the set of safety requirements and the ones met by 19 popular drone models; (3) the extent of the differences between those models, their manufacturers, and the countries o...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anastasios Plioutsias, Nektarios Karanikas, Maria Mikela Chatzimihailidou Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Public Perceptions of How Long Air Pollution and Carbon Dioxide Remain in the Atmosphere
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 525-534, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 525-534, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Public Perceptions of How Long Air Pollution and Carbon Dioxide Remain in the Atmosphere
The atmospheric residence time of carbon dioxide is hundreds of years, many orders of magnitude longer than that of common air pollution, which is typically hours to a few days. However, randomly selected respondents in a mail survey in Allegheny County, PA (N = 119) and in a national survey conducted with MTurk (N = 1,013) judged the two to be identical (in decades), considerably overestimating the residence time of air pollution and drastically underestimating that of carbon dioxide. Moreover, while many respondents believed that action is needed today to avoid climate change (regardless of cause), roughly a quarter held...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rachel Dryden, M. Granger Morgan, Ann Bostrom, W ändi Bruine de Bruin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Tornado Warning Perception and Response: Integrating the Roles of Visual Design, Demographics, and Hazard Experience
This study considers the roles of hazard knowledge acquisition, information‐seeking behaviors, previous experience, and sociodemographic factors while controlling for the effects of the visual warning graphic. Findings from the study indicate the primacy of a user's visual interpretation of a warning graphic in shaping tornado warning response. Results also suggest that information‐seeking habits, previous tornado experience, and local disaster culture play strong influencing roles in warning response. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 30, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ronald L. Schumann, Kevin D. Ash, Gregg C. Bowser Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the Cost of Large ‐Scale Power Outages to Residential Customers
Residents in developed economies depend heavily on electric services. While distributed resources and a variety of new smart technologies can increase the reliability of that service, adopting them involves costs, necessitating tradeoffs between cost and reliability. An important input to making such tradeoffs is an estimate of the value customers place on reliable electric services. We develop an elicitation framework that helps individuals think systematically about the value they attach to reliable electric service. Our approach employs a detailed and realistic blackout scenario, full or partial (20 A) backup service, q...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, Alexander L. Davis, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Flood Risk Management: Exploring the Impacts of the Community Rating System Program on Poverty and Income Inequality
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 489-503, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 489-503, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Satellite Data and Machine Learning for Weather Risk Management and Food Security
The increase in frequency and severity of extreme weather events poses challenges for the agricultural sector in developing economies and for food security globally. In this article, we demonstrate how machine learning can be used to mine satellite data and identify pixel‐level optimal weather indices that can be used to inform the design of risk transfers and the quantification of the benefits of resilient production technology adoption. We implement the model to study maize production in Mozambique, and show how the approach can be used to produce countrywide risk profiles resulting from the aggregation of local, heter...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Enrico Biffis, Erik Chavez Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Hazard Experience, Geophysical Vulnerability, and Flood Risk Perceptions in a Postdisaster City, the Case of New Orleans
In conclusion, we discuss the implications of these findings for theoretical and empirical research on environmental risk, flood risk communication strategies, and flood hazards planning. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kevin Fox Gotham, Richard Campanella, Katie Lauve ‐Moon, Bradford Powers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Undoing Project: A Friendship That Changed Our Minds. Edited by Michael  Lewis. W.W. Norton & Company, Inc., 2017. $23.16 at Barnes and Noble. 12 chapters, 362 pages.
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Elisabeth Pat é‐Cornell: Learning from Hazards and Accidents
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Profile Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 14, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Geographic Hotspots of Critical National Infrastructure
Failure of critical national infrastructures can result in major disruptions to society and the economy. Understanding the criticality of individual assets and the geographic areas in which they are located is essential for targeting investments to reduce risks and enhance system resilience. Within this study we provide new insights into the criticality of real‐life critical infrastructure networks by integrating high‐resolution data on infrastructure location, connectivity, interdependence, and usage. We propose a metric of infrastructure criticality in terms of the number of users who may be directly or indirectly di...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 12, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Scott Thacker, Stuart Barr, Raghav Pant, Jim W. Hall, David Alderson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof ‐of‐Concept Study
This article presents a flood risk analysis model that considers the spatially heterogeneous nature of flood events. The basic concept of this approach is to generate a large sample of flood events that can be regarded as temporal extrapolation of flood events. These are combined with cumulative flood impact indicators, such as building damages, to finally derive time series of damages for risk estimation. Therefore, a multivariate modeling procedure that is able to take into account the spatial characteristics of flooding, the regionalization method top‐kriging, and three different impact indicators are combined in a mo...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Klaus Schneeberger, Matthias Huttenlau, Benjamin Winter, Thomas Steinberger, Stefan Achleitner, Johann St ötter Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Mediated Amplification of a Crisis: Communicating the A/H1N1 Pandemic in Press Releases and Press Coverage in Europe
In the aftermath of the A/H1N1 pandemic, health authorities were criticized for failures in crisis communication efforts, and the media were accused of amplifying the pandemic. Considering these criticisms, A/H1N1 provides a suitable case for examining risk amplification processes that may occur in the transfer of information from press releases to print news media during a health crisis. We integrated the social amplification of risk framework with theories of news decisions (news values, framing) in an attempt to contribute to existing research both theoretically and empirically. We conducted a quantitative content analy...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 31, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Constanze Rossmann, Lisa Meyer, Peter J. Schulz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Big Data Analysis Approach for Rail Failure Risk Assessment
Railway infrastructure monitoring is a vital task to ensure rail transportation safety. A rail failure could result in not only a considerable impact on train delays and maintenance costs, but also on safety of passengers. In this article, the aim is to assess the risk of a rail failure by analyzing a type of rail surface defect called squats that are detected automatically among the huge number of records from video cameras. We propose an image processing approach for automatic detection of squats, especially severe types that are prone to rail breaks. We measure the visual length of the squats and use them to model the f...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 31, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ali Jamshidi, Shahrzad Faghih ‐Roohi, Siamak Hajizadeh, Alfredo Núñez, Robert Babuska, Rolf Dollevoet, Zili Li, Bart Schutter Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Industrial Safety and Utopia: Insights from the Fukushima Daiichi Accident
This article helps to fill the gap through an in‐depth review of official reports of the Fukushima Daiichi accident published shortly after the event. We present a new method to analyze the arguments contained in these voluminous documents. Taking an intertextual perspective, the method focuses on the accident narratives, their rationale, and links between “facts,” “causes,” and “recommendations.” The aim is to evaluate how the findings of the various reports are consistent with (or contradict) “institutionalized knowledge,” and identify the social representations that unde...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: S ébastien Travadel, Franck Guarnieri, Aurélien Portelli Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Bayesian Quantile Impairment Threshold Benchmark Dose Estimation for Continuous Endpoints
We describe this methodology and apply it to both epidemiology and toxicology data. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, A. John Bailer, Tarah Cole, Robert M. Park, Kan Shao Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Bias ‐Corrected Estimation in Continuous Sampling Plans
In this study, we show that maximum likelihood estimation of the failure rate under a sampling scheme can be biased depending on when estimation is performed, and we provide explicit expressions for the main contribution of the bias under various CSPs. We then construct bias‐corrected estimators and confidence intervals, and evaluate their performance in a numerical study. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Geoffrey Decrouez, Andrew Robinson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Incremental Sampling Methodology: Applications for Background Screening Assessments
This article presents the findings from a numerical simulation study that was conducted to evaluate the performance of alternative statistical analysis methods for background screening assessments when data sets are generated with incremental sampling methods (ISMs). A wide range of background and site conditions are represented in order to test different ISM sampling designs. Both hypothesis tests and upper tolerance limit (UTL) screening methods were implemented following U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) guidance for specifying error rates. The simulations show that hypothesis testing using two‐sample t‐t...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Penelope S. Pooler, Philip E. Goodrum, Deana Crumbling, Leah D. Stuchal, Stephen M. Roberts Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Tracking and Analyzing Individual Distress Following Terrorist Attacks Using Social Media Streams
Risk research has theorized a number of mechanisms that might trigger, prolong, or potentially alleviate individuals' distress following terrorist attacks. These mechanisms are difficult to examine in a single study, however, because the social conditions of terrorist attacks are difficult to simulate in laboratory experiments and appropriate preattack baselines are difficult to establish with surveys. To address this challenge, we propose the use of computational focus groups and a novel analysis framework to analyze a social media stream that archives user history and location. The approach uses time‐stamped behavior t...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yu ‐Ru Lin, Drew Margolin, Xidao Wen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Blanc PD Fake Silk: The Lethal History of Viscose Rayon. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press, 2016. 309 pp. ISBN 978 ‐0‐300‐20466‐7
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 9, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tee L. Guidotti Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 9, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - May 9, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing the Risks of Measles and Rubella: A Global Perspective Part II
Measles and rubella continue to circulate globally. Complementing Part I of the special issue, this introduction provides a contrast between other global eradication initiatives and the experience with measles and rubella eradication to date. This introduction builds on the syntheses of the literature provided in Part I and it describes the creation and application of a national risk assessment tool and the development of a dynamic disease transmission model to support global efforts to optimally manage measles and rubella globally using vaccines. Currently, efforts to eradicate measles and rubella suffer from the lack of ...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 4, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Bayesian Networks to Compare Pest Control Interventions on Commodities Along Agricultural Production Chains
The objective of this Bayesian network is to facilitate agreement between national governments of the exporters and importers on a set of phytosanitary measures to meet specific phytosanitary measure requirements to achieve target levels of protection against regulated pests. The model can be used to compare the performance of different combinations of measures under different scenarios of pest challenge, making use of available measure performance data. A case study is presented using a model developed for a fruit fly pest on dragon fruit in Vietnam; the model parameters and results are illustrative and do not imply a par...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: J. Holt, A. W. Leach, S. Johnson, D. M. Tu, D. T. Nhu, N. T. Anh, M. M. Quinlan, P. J. L. Whittle, K. Mengersen, J. D. Mumford Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Who Would Be Willing to Accept Disaster Debris in Their Backyard? Investigating the Determinants of Public Attitudes in Post ‐Fukushima Japan
In the wake of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, the Ministry of Environment in Japan asked municipalities nationwide to accept and treat disaster waste. This call for cross‐jurisdictional waste treatment provoked considerable public controversy. To explore how the national and municipal governments can seek more public acceptance in the wake of future disasters, this study implemented a nationwide survey and addressed the question of what factors influence the public's willingness to support their municipalities’ plans to host disaster waste. Three strands of the literature—on risk perception...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Naomi Aoki Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cyber Risk Management for Critical Infrastructure: A Risk Analysis Model and Three Case Studies
This article presents, first, a general probabilistic risk analysis framework for cyber security in an organization to be specified. It then describes three examples of forward‐looking analyses motivated by recent cyber attacks. The first one is the statistical analysis of an actual database, extended at the upper end of the loss distribution by a Bayesian analysis of possible, high‐consequence attack scenarios that may happen in the future. The second is a systems analysis of cyber risks for a smart, connected electric grid, showing that there is an optimal level of connectivity. The third is an analysis of sequential...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. ‐Elisabeth Paté‐Cornell, Marshall Kuypers, Matthew Smith, Philip Keller Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Prioritization in the Food Domain Using Deliberative and Survey Methods: Differences between Experts and Laypeople
This study examined how experts and laypeople using both a deliberative and a survey method prioritized 28 hazards related to food and everyday items. To enable them to make deliberative decisions, participants received detailed descriptions of the hazards. The participants prioritized the hazards before and after a group discussion, in which the group's average prioritization was discussed. The rankings of the hazards before and after the group discussion were highly correlated. However, laypeople and experts differed significantly in their rankings for 18 of the 28 hazards. Trust and confidence were important predictors ...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Siegrist, Philipp H übner, Christina Hartmann Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluating the Benefits of Adaptation of Critical Infrastructures to Hydrometeorological Risks
Infrastructure adaptation measures provide a practical way to reduce the risk from extreme hydrometeorological hazards, such as floods and windstorms. The benefit of adapting infrastructure assets is evaluated as the reduction in risk relative to the “do nothing” case. However, evaluating the full benefits of risk reduction is challenging because of the complexity of the systems, the scarcity of data, and the uncertainty of future climatic changes. We address this challenge by integrating methods from the study of climate adaptation, infrastructure systems, and complex networks. In doing so, we outline an infra...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Scott Thacker, Scott Kelly, Raghav Pant, Jim W. Hall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Providing Limited Local Electric Service During a Major Grid Outage: A First Assessment Based on Customer Willingness to Pay
While they are rare, widespread blackouts of the bulk power system can result in large costs to individuals and society. If local distribution circuits remain intact, it is possible to use new technologies including smart meters, intelligent switches that can change the topology of distribution circuits, and distributed generation owned by customers and the power company, to provide limited local electric power service. Many utilities are already making investments that would make this possible. We use customers' measured willingness to pay to explore when the incremental investments needed to implement these capabilities ...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, M. Granger Morgan, Alexander L. Davis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Flood Risk Management: Exploring the Impacts of the Community Rating System Program on Poverty and Income Inequality
This study thus investigates the possibility of unintended consequences of the CRS by answering the question: What is the effect of the CRS on poverty and income inequality? Understanding the impacts of the CRS on poverty and income inequality is useful in fully assessing the unintended consequences of the CRS. The study estimates four fixed‐effects regression models using a panel data set of neighborhood‐level observations from 1970 to 2010. The results indicate that median incomes are lower in CRS communities, but rise in floodplains. Also, the CRS attracts poor residents, but relocates them away from floodplains. Ad...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Douglas S. Noonan, Abdul ‐Akeem A. Sadiq Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Communication Emergency Response Preparedness: Contextual Assessment of the Protective Action Decision Model
Studies are continuously performed to improve risk communication campaign designs to better prepare residents to act in the safest manner during an emergency. To that end, this article investigates the predictive ability of the protective action decision model (PADM), which links environmental and social cues, predecision processes (attention, exposure, and comprehension), and risk decision perceptions (threat, alternative protective actions, and stakeholder norms) with protective action decision making. This current quasi‐longitudinal study of residents (N = 400 for each year) in a high‐risk (chemical release) petroch...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert L. Heath, Jaesub Lee, Michael J. Palenchar, Laura L. Lemon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Linear ‐No‐Threshold Default Assumptions are Unwarranted for Cytotoxic Endpoints Independently Triggered by Ultrasensitive Molecular Switches
Crump's response in this issue to my critique of linear‐no‐threshold (LNT) default assumptions for noncancer and nongenotoxic cancer risks (Risk Analysis 2016; 36(3):589–604) is rebutted herein. Crump maintains that distinguishing between a low‐dose linear dose response and a threshold dose response on the basis of dose–response data is impossible even for endpoints involving increased cytotoxicity. My rebuttal relies on descriptions and specific illustrations of two well‐characterized ultrasensitive molecular switches that govern two key cytoprotective responses to cellular stress—heat shock resp...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Kenneth T. Bogen Tags: Invited Commentary Source Type: research

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice
This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Robustness Assessment of Urban Road Network with Consideration of Multiple Hazard Events
Robustness measures a system's ability of being insensitive to disturbances. Previous studies assessed the robustness of transportation networks to a single disturbance without considering simultaneously happening multiple events. The purpose of this article is to address this problem and propose a new framework to assess the robustness of an urban transportation network. The framework consists of two layers. The upper layer is to define the robustness index based on the impact evaluation in different scenarios obtained from the lower layer, whereas the lower layer is to evaluate the performance of each hypothetical disrup...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Yaoming Zhou, Jiuh ‐Biing Sheu, Junwei Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Three ‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control
A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Bing Wu, Xinping Yan, Yang Wang, Di Zhang, C. Guedes Soares Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Vivianne H. M. Visschers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the Likelihood and Magnitude of a Population Health Benefit Following the Market Introduction of a Modified ‐Risk Tobacco Product: Enhancements to the Dynamic Population Modeler, DPM(+1)
Researchers and those responsible for evaluating and implementing policies intended to reduce population harm must assess the potential for both intended and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Such assessments should be based on the combined dimensions of magnitude, and thus likelihood, of shifts in exposure patterns needed to produce a population benefit or harm, and magnitude of the expected population benefit or harm. In response to this assessment need, we provide a conceptual description of the dynamic population modeler, DPM(+1), as well as illustrative analyses that estimate the effects on all...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Annette M. Bachand, Sandra I. Sulsky, Geoffrey M. Curtin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 18, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research