A Modular Bayesian Salmonella Source Attribution Model for Sparse Data
AbstractSeveral statistical models for salmonella source attribution have been presented in the literature. However, these models have often been found to be sensitive to the model parameterization, as well as the specifics of the data set used. The Bayesian salmonella source attribution model presented here was developed to be generally applicable with small and sparse annual data sets obtained over several years. The full Bayesian model was modularized into three parts (an exposure model, a subtype distribution model, and an epidemiological model) in order to separately estimate unknown parameters in each module. The pro...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Antti Mikkel ä, Jukka Ranta, Pirkko Tuominen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Multiple Hazard Resilience Model of an Interdependent Infrastructure System
AbstractMultiple hazard resilience is of significant practical value because most regions of the world are subject to multiple natural and technological hazards. An analysis and assessment approach for multiple hazard spatiotemporal resilience of interdependent infrastructure systems is developed using network theory and a numerical analysis. First, we define multiple hazard resilience and present a quantitative probabilistic metric based on the expansion of a single hazard deterministic resilience model. Second, we define a multiple hazard relationship analysis model with a focus on the impact of hazards on an infrastruct...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jingjing Kong, Slobodan P. Simonovic Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mega ‐Review: Causality Books Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Douglas A. Popken, and Richard X. Sun. Springer, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Vol. 270, 2018, $229, xxii+588. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea Pearl and Dana Mackenzie. New York: Basic Books, 2018, $32, x+419. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference by Judea Pearl, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000, 2nd edition, 2009, $64.99, xix+465.
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: D. Warner North Tags: Book Reviews Source Type: research

Toward Convergence Disaster Research: Building Integrative Theories Using Simulation
AbstractScholars across disciplines use simulation methods as tools to build theories; however, the full potential of simulation methods has not been fully used for building theories in convergence disaster research. Simulation methods could provide four unique opportunities for building theories for convergence disaster research. First, simulation methods could help researchers model the underlying mechanisms of disaster phenomena by enabling integration of qualitative and quantitative data. Second, they could help researchers specify and characterize the mechanisms affecting specific disaster phenomena by facilitating in...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ali Mostafavi, N. Emel Ganapati Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk Communication as Government Agency Organizational Practice
This article investigates how public officials at six government agencies in Sweden understand and relate to risk communication and its uses in the context of agency organizational work on policy and regulation. Qualitative interviews were used to explore the practitioners ’ views on some key topics in the academic literature on risk communication. A main finding is that there is little consensus on what the goals of risk communication are; if, and how, uncertainty should be communicated; and what role is to be played by transparency in risk communication. However, the practitioners agree that dissemination (top down...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Åsa Boholm Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cigarette Smoking and Multiple Health Risk Behaviors: A Latent Class Regression Model to Identify a Profile of Young Adolescents
AbstractCigarette smoking is often established during adolescence when other health ‐related risk behaviors tend to occur. The aim of the study was to further investigate the hypothesis that risky health behaviors tend to cluster together and to identify distinctive profiles of young adolescents based on their smoking habits. To explore the idea that smoking behavior can predict membership in a specific risk profile of adolescents, with heavy smokers being more likely to exhibit other risk behaviors, we reanalyzed the data from the 2014 Health Behaviour in School‐Aged Children Italian survey of about 60,000 first‐ an...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 11, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lorena Charrier, Paola Berchialla, Paola Dalmasso, Alberto Borraccino, Patrizia Lemma, Franco Cavallo Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Time ‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention
AbstractWe propose an innovative time ‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yamin Huang, P. H. A. J. M. Gelder Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, Page 509-510, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Conflict of Interest Mitigation Procedures May Have Little Influence on the Perceived Procedural Fairness of Risk ‐Related Research
AbstractTwo between ‐subject experiments explored perceived conflict of interest (COI)—operationalized as perceived procedural unfairness—in a hypothetical public–private research partnership to study the health risks of trans fats. Perceived fairness was measured as subjects’ perceptions that health research ers would be willing to listen to a range of voices and minimize bias (i.e., COI) in the context of a research project. Experiment 1 (n = 1,263) randomly assigned research subjects to a partnership that included (1) a combination of an industry partner, a university partner, and a nongovernme...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C. Besley, Nagwan R. Zahry, Aaron McCright, Kevin C. Elliott, Norbert E. Kaminski, Joseph D. Martin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Feelings About Fracking: Using the Affect Heuristic to Understand Opposition to Coal Seam Gas Production
AbstractThe rapid expansion of coal seam gas (CSG) extraction across Australia has polarized public opinion about the risks, benefits, and the future of the industry. We conducted a randomized controlled experiment to assess the impact of CSG messaging on opposition to the CSG industry. Residents of a major Australian city (N = 549), aged between 21 and 87 years, were randomly assigned to view one of three brief video messages (pro ‐CSG, anti‐CSG, or a neutral control) sourced from the Internet. They then completed measures assessing CSG affective associations, perceived risks and benefits of CSG, and degree of opposit...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Donald W. Hine, Kirsten Clarke, Anthony D. G. Marks, Methuen I. Morgan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities
AbstractMost existing risk management models for process industries do not consider the effect of insurance coverage, which results in an overestimation of overall risk. A model is presented in this article to study the effect of insurance coverage of health, safety, environmental, and business risks. The effect of insurance recovery is modeled through the application of adjustment factors by considering the stochastic factors affecting insurance recovery. The insurance contract's conditions, deductibles, and policy limits are considered in developing the insurance recovery adjustment factors. Copula functions and Monte Ca...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seyed Javad Hashemi, Faisal Khan, Salim Ahmed Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis
AbstractProbabilistic seismic risk analysis is a well ‐established method in the insurance industry for modeling portfolio losses from earthquake events. In this context, precise exposure locations are often unknown. However, so far, location uncertainty has not been in the focus of a large amount of research. In this article, we propose a novel fram ework for treatment of location uncertainty. As a case study, a large number of synthetic portfolios resembling typical real‐world cases were created. We investigate the effect of portfolio characteristics such as value distribution, portfolio size, or proportion of risk i...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christoph Scheingraber, Martin A. K äser Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 3, Page 509-510, March 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Time ‐Varying Risk Measurement for Ship Collision Prevention
AbstractWe propose an innovative time ‐varying collision risk (TCR) measurement for ship collision prevention in this article. The proposed measurement considers the level of danger of the approaching ships and the capability of a ship to prevent collisions. We define the TCR as the probability of the overlap of ships’ positions in the future, given the uncertainty of maneuvers. Two sets are identified: (1) the velocity obstacle set as the maneuvers of the own ship that lead to collisions with target ships, and (2) the reachable velocity set as the maneuvers that the own ship can reach regarding its maneuverability...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yamin Huang, P. H. A. J. M. Gelder Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Farmers ’ Risk‐Based Decision Making Under Pervasive Uncertainty: Cognitive Thresholds and Hazy Hedging
AbstractResearchers in judgment and decision making have long debunked the idea that we are economically rational optimizers. However, problematic assumptions of rationality remain common in studies of agricultural economics and climate change adaptation, especially those that involve quantitative models. Recent movement toward more complex agent ‐based modeling provides an opportunity to reconsider the empirical basis for farmer decision making. Here, we reconceptualize farmer decision making from the ground up, using anin situ mental models approach to analyze weather and climate risk management. We assess how large ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kieran M. Findlater, Terre Satterfield, Milind Kandlikar Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrating Stakeholder Mapping and Risk Scenarios to Improve Resilience of Cyber ‐Physical‐Social Networks
This article develops a framework to address enterprise resilience for two modes of disruptions—the first being the influence of scenarios on priorities and the second being the influence of multiple groups of stak eholders on priorities. The innovation of this study is to obtain the advantages of integrating two recent approaches:scenario ‐based preferences modeling andstakeholder mapping. Public agencies, grid operators, plug ‐in electric vehicle owners, and vehicle manufacturers are the four groups of stakeholders that are considered in this framework, along with the influence of four scenarios on priorities. ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ayedh Almutairi, John P. Wheeler, David L. Slutzky, James H. Lambert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Stochastic Counterfactual Risk Analysis for the Vulnerability Assessment of Cyber ‐Physical Attacks on Electricity Distribution Infrastructure Networks
AbstractIn December 2015, a cyber ‐physical attack took place on the Ukrainian electricity distribution network. This is regarded as one of the first cyber‐physical attacks on electricity infrastructure to have led to a substantial power outage and is illustrative of the increasing vulnerability of Critical National Infrastructu re to this type of malicious activity. Few data points, coupled with the rapid emergence of cyber phenomena, has held back the development of resilience analytics of cyber‐physical attacks, relative to many other threats. We propose to overcome data limitations by applying stochastic counterf...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Edward J. Oughton, Daniel Ralph, Raghav Pant, Eireann Leverett, Jennifer Copic, Scott Thacker, Rabia Dada, Simon Ruffle, Michelle Tuveson, Jim W Hall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Reply
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: H. Orri Stef ánsson Tags: Response Source Type: research

Comment: The Precautionary Principle and Judgment Aggregation
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Boyer ‐Kassem Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients ’ Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings
This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color ‐coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within eac h of seven designated leve...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seyed M. Miran, Chen Ling, Alan Gerard, Lans Rothfusz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

On the Limits of the Precautionary Principle
AbstractThe precautionary principle (PP) is an influential principle of risk management. It has been widely introduced into environmental legislation, and it plays an important role in most international environmental agreements. Yet, there is little consensus on precisely how to understand and formulate the principle. In this article I prove some impossibility results for two plausible formulations of the PP as a decision ‐rule. These results illustrate the difficulty in making the PP consistent with the acceptance of any tradeoffs between catastrophic risks and more ordinary goods. How one interprets these results will...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: H. Orri Stef ánsson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Comments to Orri Stef ánsson's Paper on the Precautionary Principle
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Comment: The Precautionary Principle and Judgment Aggregation
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Boyer ‐Kassem Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Effect of Providing the Uncertainty Information About a Tornado Occurrence on the Weather Recipients ’ Cognition and Protective Action: Probabilistic Hazard Information Versus Deterministic Warnings
This study aims to investigate the effects of providing the uncertainty information about a tornado occurrence through the PHI's graphical swath on laypeople's concern, fear, and protective action, as compared with providing the warning information with the deterministic polygon. The displays of color ‐coded swaths and deterministic polygons were shown to subjects. Some displays had a blue background denoting the probability of any tornado formation in the general area. Participants were asked to report their levels of concern, fear, and protective action at randomly chosen locations within eac h of seven designated leve...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seyed M. Miran, Chen Ling, Alan Gerard, Lans Rothfusz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

On the Limits of the Precautionary Principle
AbstractThe precautionary principle (PP) is an influential principle of risk management. It has been widely introduced into environmental legislation, and it plays an important role in most international environmental agreements. Yet, there is little consensus on precisely how to understand and formulate the principle. In this article I prove some impossibility results for two plausible formulations of the PP as a decision ‐rule. These results illustrate the difficulty in making the PP consistent with the acceptance of any tradeoffs between catastrophic risks and more ordinary goods. How one interprets these results will...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: H. Orri Stef ánsson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Comments to Orri Stef ánsson's Paper on the Precautionary Principle
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Reply
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: H. Orri Stef ánsson Tags: Response Source Type: research

An Optimization ‐Based Framework for the Identification of Vulnerabilities in Electric Power Grids Exposed to Natural Hazards
This article proposes a novel mathematical optimization framework for the identification of the vulnerabilities of electric power infrastructure systems (which is a paramount example of critical infrastructure) due to natural hazards. In this framework, the potential impacts of a specific natural hazard on an infrastructure are first evaluated in terms of failure and recovery probabilities of system components. Then, these are fed into a bi ‐level attacker–defender interdiction model to determine the critical components whose failures lead to the largest system functionality loss. The proposed framework bridges the...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yi ‐Ping Fang, Giovanni Sansavini, Enrico Zio Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Design and Assessment Methodology for System Resilience Metrics
This article covers this gap by introducing a methodology that can show the validity of an RM against its conceptual framework. This methodology combines experimental design methods and statistical analysis techniques that provide an insight into the RM's quality. We also propose a new metric that can be used for general systems. The analysis of the proposed metric using the presented methodology shows that this metric is a better indicator of the system's abilities compared to the existing metrics. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mohammad Najarian, Gino J. Lim Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area
AbstractCoastal cities around the world have experienced large costs from major flooding events in recent years. Climate change is predicted to bring an increased likelihood of flooding due to sea level rise and more frequent severe storms. In order to plan future development and adaptation, cities must know the magnitude of losses associated with these events, and how they can be reduced. Often losses are calculated from insurance claims or surveying flood victims. However, this largely neglects the loss due to the disruption of economic activity. We use a forward ‐looking dynamic computable general equilibrium model to...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Aaron B. Gertz, James B. Davies, Samantha L. Black Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Design and Assessment Methodology for System Resilience Metrics
This article covers this gap by introducing a methodology that can show the validity of an RM against its conceptual framework. This methodology combines experimental design methods and statistical analysis techniques that provide an insight into the RM's quality. We also propose a new metric that can be used for general systems. The analysis of the proposed metric using the presented methodology shows that this metric is a better indicator of the system's abilities compared to the existing metrics. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mohammad Najarian, Gino J. Lim Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area
AbstractCoastal cities around the world have experienced large costs from major flooding events in recent years. Climate change is predicted to bring an increased likelihood of flooding due to sea level rise and more frequent severe storms. In order to plan future development and adaptation, cities must know the magnitude of losses associated with these events, and how they can be reduced. Often losses are calculated from insurance claims or surveying flood victims. However, this largely neglects the loss due to the disruption of economic activity. We use a forward ‐looking dynamic computable general equilibrium model to...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Aaron B. Gertz, James B. Davies, Samantha L. Black Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Validation of a Stochastic Discrete Event Model Predicting Virus Concentration on Nurse Hands
In this study, a model was developed to predict virus concentration on nurses ’ hands using data from a bacteriophage tracer study conducted in Tucson, Arizona, in an urgent care facility. Surfaces were swabbed 2 hours, 3.5 hours, and 6 hours postseeding to measure virus spread over time. To estimate the full viral load that would have been present on hands without sampling , virus concentrations were summed across time points for 3.5‐ and 6‐hour measurements. A stochastic discrete event model was developed to predict virus concentrations on nurses’ hands, given a distribution of virus concentrations on sur...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Wilson, Kelly A. Reynolds, Marc P. Verhougstraete, Robert A. Canales Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perceptions Toward Drinking Water Quality Among Private Well Owners in Ireland: The Illusion of Control
AbstractIn rural areas where no public or group water schemes exist, groundwater is often the only source of drinking water and is extracted by drilling private wells. Typically, private well owners are responsible for the quality and testing of their own drinking water. Previous studies indicate that well owners tend to underestimate the risks of their well water being contaminated, yet little is known about why this is the case. We conducted a qualitative study by interviewing private well owners in Ireland to investigate their beliefs surrounding their water quality, which, in turn, inform their risk perceptions and the...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Teresa Hooks, Geertje Schuitema, Frank McDermott Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

When Evolution Works Against the Future: Disgust's Contributions to the Acceptance of New Food Technologies
AbstractNew food technologies have a high potential to transform the current resource ‐consuming food system to a more efficient and sustainable one, but public acceptance of new food technologies is rather low. Such an avoidance might be maintained by a deeply preserved risk avoidance system called disgust. In an online survey, participants (N = 313) received information about a variety of new food technology applications (i.e., genetically modified meat/fish, edible nanotechnology coating film, nanotechnology food box, artificial meat/milk, and a synthetic food additive). Every new food technology application was rated...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Aisha Egolf, Christina Hartmann, Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perceptions Toward Drinking Water Quality Among Private Well Owners in Ireland: The Illusion of Control
AbstractIn rural areas where no public or group water schemes exist, groundwater is often the only source of drinking water and is extracted by drilling private wells. Typically, private well owners are responsible for the quality and testing of their own drinking water. Previous studies indicate that well owners tend to underestimate the risks of their well water being contaminated, yet little is known about why this is the case. We conducted a qualitative study by interviewing private well owners in Ireland to investigate their beliefs surrounding their water quality, which, in turn, inform their risk perceptions and the...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Teresa Hooks, Geertje Schuitema, Frank McDermott Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

When Evolution Works Against the Future: Disgust's Contributions to the Acceptance of New Food Technologies
AbstractNew food technologies have a high potential to transform the current resource ‐consuming food system to a more efficient and sustainable one, but public acceptance of new food technologies is rather low. Such an avoidance might be maintained by a deeply preserved risk avoidance system called disgust. In an online survey, participants (N = 313) received information about a variety of new food technology applications (i.e., genetically modified meat/fish, edible nanotechnology coating film, nanotechnology food box, artificial meat/milk, and a synthetic food additive). Every new food technology application was rated...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Aisha Egolf, Christina Hartmann, Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Validation of a Stochastic Discrete Event Model Predicting Virus Concentration on Nurse Hands
In this study, a model was developed to predict virus concentration on nurses ’ hands using data from a bacteriophage tracer study conducted in Tucson, Arizona, in an urgent care facility. Surfaces were swabbed 2 hours, 3.5 hours, and 6 hours postseeding to measure virus spread over time. To estimate the full viral load that would have been present on hands without sampling , virus concentrations were summed across time points for 3.5‐ and 6‐hour measurements. A stochastic discrete event model was developed to predict virus concentrations on nurses’ hands, given a distribution of virus concentrations on sur...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Wilson, Kelly A. Reynolds, Marc P. Verhougstraete, Robert A. Canales Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Null Hypothesis Testing ≠ Scientific Inference: A Critique of the Shaky Premise at the Heart of the Science and Values Debate, and a Defense of Value‐Neutral Risk Assessment
AbstractMany philosophers and statisticians argue that risk assessors are morally obligated to evaluate the probabilities and consequences of methodological error, and to base their decisions of whether to adopt a given parameter value, model, or hypothesis on those considerations. This argument is couched within the rubric of null hypothesis testing, which I suggest is a poor descriptive and normative model for risk assessment. Risk regulation is not primarily concerned with evaluating the probability of data conditional upon the null hypothesis, but rather with measuring risks, estimating the consequences of available co...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 11, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Brian H. MacGillivray Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 2, February 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Special Series: Social Science of Automated Driving
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 2, Page 293-294, February 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - February 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joseph F. Coughlin, Martina Raue, Lisa A. D'Ambrosio, Carley Ward, Chaiwoo Lee Tags: Editorial Source Type: research