Inferring the distribution of norovirus in individual oysters below the limit of quantification by pooled sampling
AbstractNorovirus (NoV) in oysters is a food safety risk of much concern. In order to assess the risk of the exposure, the distribution of the number of NoV copies contained in each oyster should be acquired first for comprehensively quantifying the associated risks. However, the part of the distribution below the limit of quantification cannot be obtained directly by laboratory detecting methods, which hampers accurate assessment. To tackle this challenging problem, a systematic method (Distribution Inference Method by Pooled Sampling) is proposed to infer the unobservable part of distribution based upon all measurements ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 1, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jianxin Wang,
Chen Zhou,
Yeru Wang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Quantitative approaches for including equity in risk and resilience infrastructure planning analyses
AbstractRisk and resilience assessments for critical infrastructure focus on myriad objectives, from natural hazard evaluations to optimizing investments. Although research has started to characterize externalities associated with current or possible future states, incorporation of equity priorities at project inception is increasingly being recognized as critical for planning related activities. However, there is no standard methodology that guides development of equity-informed quantitative approaches for infrastructure planning activities. To address this gap, we introduce a logic model that can be tailored to capture n...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 30, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thushara Gunda,
Amanda Wachtel,
Shruti Khadka Mishra,
Emily Moog Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A risk science perspective on vaccines
AbstractVaccines can be seen as one of the greatest successes in modern medicine. Good examples are the vaccines against smallpox, polio, and measles. Unfortunately, vaccines can have side effects, but the risks are considered by the health authorities and experts to be small compared to their benefits. Nevertheless, there are many who are skeptical of vaccination, something which has been very clearly demonstrated in relation to the COVID-19 disease. Risk is the key concept when evaluating a vaccine, in relation to both its ability to protect against the disease and its side effects. However, risk is a challenging concept...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 26, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ingrid Glette ‐Iversen,
Terje Aven,
Roger Flage Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
On the interconnected nature of risk and responsibility in the research and development of new and emerging technologies
AbstractRisk analysis of new and emerging technologies requires innovative approaches that are agile, exploratory, and can accommodate broad stakeholder engagement and perspectives. Existing theories of risk governance and responsible innovation suggest that operationalizing guiding principles for engagement such as inclusion and reflection may provide a useful approach to the risk analysis of these technologies. Yet, methodologies to systematically assess how we might operationalize such guiding principles in risk analysis are limited in existing risk research. We contribute to filling this gap by demonstrating a practica...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 26, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yuwan Malakar,
Justine Lacey Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Early warning systems and end ‐user decision‐making: A risk formalism tool to aid communication and understanding
AbstractIn this work, we introduce a formalism to highlight the role of decision-making implicit in the setup of early warning systems (EWSs) and its consequences with respect to loss avoidance for end users. The formalism, a close relative of the cost/loss approach, combines EWS verification scores with traditional expressions of risk from the point of view of the user. This formalism articulates in mathematical format many well-known issues surrounding EWS usage, offering a conceptual anchor for concepts that otherwise may seem to wobble among the multidisciplinary perspectives participating in the EWS chain.This decisio...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 26, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ram ón Elía,
Juan José Ruiz,
Verónica Francce,
Pedro Lohigorry,
Marcos Saucedo,
Matías Menalled,
Daniela D´Amen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Impact of respiratory aerosol size and number distribution on the relative importance of different routes in SARS ‐CoV‐2 transmission
In conclusion, risk analyses will be improved with improved sampling methods that enable characterization of viruses within respiratory droplets of different sizes. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 25, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shuyi Ji,
Rachael M. Jones,
Hao Lei Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
The effect of likelihood and impact information on public response to severe weather warnings
In this study, we explored whether providing information about the likelihood and impact severity of forecast weather affected subjective judgments of likelihood , severity, concern, trust in forecast, and intention to take protective action. In a mixed-factorial online experiment, 550 UK residents from 2 regions with different weather profiles were randomly assigned to 1 of 3 Warning Format conditions (Color-only, Text, Risk Matrix) and presented with 3 war nings: high-probability/moderate-impact (amber HPMI); low-probability/high-impact (amber); high-probability/high-impact (red). Amongst those presented with information...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 25, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Andrea Taylor,
Barbara Summers,
Samuel Domingos,
Natalie Garrett,
Sophie Yeomans Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Risk literacy: Foundational issues and its connection to risk science
AbstractA new research area is developing, risk literacy. The term “risk literacy” basically refers to one's ability to understand and evaluate risk, in order to support and make appropriate decisions. In this article, we discuss how risk literacy relates to risk analysis/science with its topics of risk fundamentals (concepts), risk understanding, risk assessme nts, risk characterizations, risk perception, risk communication, and risk handling (covering risk management, risk governance, and policies on risk). We question how issues and research topics addressed in risk literacy relate to risk analysis/science knowledge...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Choosing human over AI doctors? How comparative trust associations and knowledge relate to risk and benefit perceptions of AI in healthcare
In this study, we draw on the risk perception and human-AI interaction literature to examine how explicit (i.e., deliberate) and implicit (i.e., automatic) comparative trust associations with AI versus physicians, and knowledge about AI, relate to likelihood perceptions of risks and benefits of AI in healthcare and preferences for the integration of AI in healthcare. We use survey data (N = 378) to specify a path model. Results reveal that the path for implicit comparative trust associations on relative preferences for AI over physicians is only significant through risk, but not through benefit perceptions. This finding ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sophie Kerstan,
Nadine Bienefeld,
Gudela Grote Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Real options analysis for valuation of climate adaptation pathways with application to transit infrastructure
AbstractClimate change and sea-level rise (SLR) are expected to increase the frequency and intensity of coastal flood events, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructure. While regional climate adaptation investments can provide substantive flood protection, existing plans often neglect uncertainty in future climate conditions and adaptation performance, consequently neglecting the option value of flexibly implementing proposed projects. Addressing this gap, we develop and employ a generalizable real options analysis (ROA) valuation framework that considers how uncertainty in adaptation project costs, SLR, flood...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 16, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael V. Martello,
Andrew J. Whittle,
Perry C. Oddo,
Richard Neufville Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Interpretable ensemble imbalance learning strategies for the risk assessment of severe ‐low‐level wind shear based on LiDAR and PIREPs
In this study, we develop an S-LLWS risk prediction model through the utilization of ensemble imbalance learning (EIL) strategies, namely, BalanceCascade, EasyEnsemble, and RUSBoost. The data for this study were obtained from PIREPs and LiDAR at Hong Kong International Airport. The analysis revealed that the BalanceCascade strategy outperforms EasyEnsemble and RUSBoost in terms of prediction performance. Afterward, the SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) interpretation tool was used in conjunction with the BalanceCascade model for the risk assessment of various factors. The four most influential risk factors, according to...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 14, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Afaq Khattak,
Pak ‐Wai Chan,
Feng Chen,
Haorong Peng Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Childhood poisonings: Effects of ambiguous product characteristics on preschool children's categorization of household chemicals
This study investigated preschool children's categorization and risk perception of products with ambiguous product characteristics (e.g., food-like packaging). These characteristics make it difficult for preschool children to categorize household chemicals correctly. This, therefore, increases the risk of unintentional poisoning. We hypothesized that ambiguity arises from different product characteristics, such as the type of packaging, the products ’ scent, or the packaging's color and transparency. In four behavioral tasks,N = 108 preschool children (M = 43 months,SD = 3) categorized different products and househ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Noah Bosshart,
Angela Bearth,
Stephanie Wermelinger,
Moritz M. Daum,
Michael Siegrist Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Exploring and contextualizing the associations among political identification, vaccine risk and benefit perceptions, and vaccine acceptance
AbstractThere is considerable research on the influence of political partisanship on vaccine acceptance. However, the current study is one of the first to investigate how political identification is related to risk and benefit perceptions vis- à-vis vaccines. Based on survey data collected in the United States regarding four different vaccines at three points in time (n = 383 for April–June 2012;n = 364 for March 2020;n = 334 for April–May 2020), Democrats were found to have more positive attitudes toward vaccinations in general and hold more favorable risk and benefit perceptions of pandemic and routine vaccine...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 12, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nien ‐Tsu Nancy Chen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 12, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Understanding disaster insurance: New tools for a more resilient future By Carolyn Kousky, Washington, DC: Island Press. 2022. ISBN:9781642832259, pp. 204. $35.00 in paperback
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 10, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Cameron A. MacKenzie Tags: BOOK REVIEW Source Type: research
