Integration of Critical Infrastructure and Societal Consequence Models: Impact on Swedish Power System Mitigation Decisions
AbstractCritical infrastructures provide society with services essential to its functioning, and extensive disruptions give rise to large societal consequences. Risk and vulnerability analyses of critical infrastructures generally focus narrowly on the infrastructure of interest and describe the consequences as nonsupplied commodities or the cost of unsupplied commodities; they rarely holistically consider the larger impact with respect to higher ‐order consequences for the society. From a societal perspective, this narrow focus may lead to severe underestimation of the negative effects of infrastructure disruptions. To ...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 25, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Linn Svegrup, Jonas Johansson, Henrik Hassel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Clinical Capital and the Risk of Maternal Labor and Delivery Complications: Hospital Scheduling, Timing, and Cohort Turnover Effects
AbstractThe establishment of interventions to maximize maternal health requires the identification of modifiable risk factors. Toward the identification of modifiable hospital ‐based factors, we analyze over 2 million births from 2005 to 2010 in Texas, employing a series of quasi‐experimental tests involving hourly, daily, and monthly circumstances where medical service quality (or clinical capital) is known to vary exogenously. Motivated by a clinician's choice model , we investigate whether maternal delivery complications (1) vary by work shift, (2) increase by the hours worked within shifts, (3) increase on weekends...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sammy Zahran, David Mushinski, Hsueh ‐Hsiang Li, Ian Breunig, Sophie Mckee Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Robust Approach for Mitigating Risks in Cyber Supply Chains
AbstractIn recent years, there have been growing concerns regarding risks in federal information technology (IT) supply chains in the United States that protect cyber infrastructure. A critical need faced by decisionmakers is to prioritize investment in security mitigations to maximally reduce risks in IT supply chains. We extend existing stochastic expected budgeted maximum multiple coverage models that identify “good” solutions on average that may be unacceptable in certain circumstances. We propose three alternative models that consider different robustness methods that hedge against worst‐case risks,...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 18, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kaiyue Zheng, Laura A. Albert Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980 –2014 Case Study
This article fills these gaps by creating data ‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows highR2 values ( ≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numeri cal analyses provide techniques and insights to a...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Adam Behrendt, Vineet M. Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Let's Call it Quits: Break ‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks
Abstract“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even p oint on the d...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Peter A. F. Fraser ‐Mackenzie, Tiejun Ma, Ming‐Chien Sung, Johnnie E. V. Johnson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Influence of Feelings While Driving Regular Cars on the Perception and Acceptance of Self ‐Driving Cars
In this study (N = 1,484), we investigated how feelings related to traditional driving affect risk perception, benefit perception, and trust related to self ‐driving cars as well as people's acceptance of the technology. Due to limited experiences with and knowledge of self‐driving cars, we expected that feelings related to a similar experience, namely, driving regular cars, would influence judgments of self‐driving cars. Our results support this assumption. While positive feelings of enjoyment predicted higher benefit perception and trust, negative affect predicted higher risk and higher benefit perception of self...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Martina Raue, Lisa A. D'Ambrosio, Carley Ward, Chaiwoo Lee, Claire Jacquillat, Joseph F. Coughlin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Fire Protection Resource Allocation in the United States: Models and a 1980 –2014 Case Study
This article fills these gaps by creating data ‐driven empirical and theoretical models to study the effectiveness of nationwide fire protection investment in reducing economic and human losses. The regression between investment and loss vulnerability shows highR2 values ( ≈0.93). This article also contributes to the literature by modeling strategic (national‐level or state‐level) resource allocation (RA) for fire protection with equity‐efficiency trade‐off considerations, while existing literature focuses on operational‐level RA. This model and its numeri cal analyses provide techniques and insights to a...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Adam Behrendt, Vineet M. Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Let's Call it Quits: Break ‐Even Effects in the Decision to Stop Taking Risks
Abstract“Chasing” behavior, whereby individuals, driven by a desire to break even, continue a risky activity (RA) despite incurring large losses, is a commonly observed phenomenon. We examine whether the desire to break even plays a wider role in decisions to stop engaging in financially motivated RA in a naturalistic setting. We test hypotheses, motivated by this research question, using a large data set: 707,152 transactions of 5,379 individual financial market spread traders between September 2004 and April 2013. The results indicate strong effects of changes in wealth around the break‐even p oint on the d...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Peter A. F. Fraser ‐Mackenzie, Tiejun Ma, Ming‐Chien Sung, Johnnie E. V. Johnson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Methods Are Necessary for Effective Implementation of Natural Hazards Policy
AbstractA transdisciplinary, integrated risk assessment and risk management process is particularly beneficial to the development of policies addressing risk from natural hazards. Strategies based on isolated risk assessment and management processes, guided by traditional “predict, then act” methods for decision making, may induce major regret if future conditions diverge from predictions. Analytic methods designed to identify robust solutions—those that perform satisfactorily over a broader range of future conditions—are more suitable for management of natur al hazards risks, for at least three maj...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David R. Johnson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Decision ‐Centered Method to Evaluate Natural Hazards Decision Aids by Interdisciplinary Research Teams
AbstractThere is a growing number of decision aids made available to the general public by those working on hazard and disaster management. When based on high ‐quality scientific studies across disciplines and designed to provide a high level of usability and trust, decision aids become more likely to improve the quality of hazard risk management and response decisions. Interdisciplinary teams have a vital role to play in this process, ensuring the scie ntific validity and effectiveness of a decision aid across the physical science, social science, and engineering dimensions of hazard awareness, option identification, an...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gabrielle Wong ‐Parodi, Mitchell J. Small Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Integrated Risk Assessment and Management Methods Are Necessary for Effective Implementation of Natural Hazards Policy
AbstractA transdisciplinary, integrated risk assessment and risk management process is particularly beneficial to the development of policies addressing risk from natural hazards. Strategies based on isolated risk assessment and management processes, guided by traditional “predict, then act” methods for decision making, may induce major regret if future conditions diverge from predictions. Analytic methods designed to identify robust solutions—those that perform satisfactorily over a broader range of future conditions—are more suitable for management of natur al hazards risks, for at least three maj...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 14, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David R. Johnson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Exploring the Conceptual Foundation of Continuity Management in the Context of Societal Safety
AbstractPublic and private actors with critical roles for ensuring societal safety need to work proactively to reduce risks and vulnerabilities. Traditionally, risk management activities have often been performed in order to ensure continuous functioning of key societal services. Recently, however, business continuity management (BCM), and its analytical subcomponent business impact assessment (BIA), has been introduced and used more extensively by both the private and public sector in order to increase the robustness and resilience of critical infrastructures and societal functions and services. BCM was originally develop...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Henrik Hassel, Alexander Cedergren Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential of Citizen Science for Enhancing Infrastructure Monitoring Data and Decision ‐Support Models for Local Communities
AbstractCitizen science is a process by which volunteer members of the public, who commonly lack advanced training in science, engage in scientific activities (e.g., data collection) that might otherwise be beyond the reach of professional researchers or practitioners. The purpose of this article is to discuss how citizen ‐science projects coordinated by interdisciplinary teams of engineers and social scientists can potentially enhance infrastructure monitoring data and decision‐support models for local communities. The article provides an interdisciplinary definition of infrastructure data quality that extends b eyond...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nasir Gharaibeh, Isaac Oti, Michelle Meyer, Marccus Hendricks, Shannon Zandt Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 1, January 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Advances in Spatial Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 1, Page 1-8, January 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - January 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nikolaos Argyris, Valentina Ferretti, Simon French, Seth Guikema, Gilberto Montibeller Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

A Study on a Sequential One ‐Defender‐N‐Attacker Game
AbstractGovernment usually faces threat from multiple attackers. However, in the literature, researchers often model attackers as one monolithic player who chooses whether to attack, how much investment to spend, and on which target, instead of treating multiple attackers as independent agents. This modeling strategy may potentially cause suboptimal defense investment if the attackers have vastly different interests and preferences and may not be combined as one in theory. In this article, we develop a sequential game with complete information. This model considers one defender explicitly dealing with multiple unmergeable ...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zhiheng Xu, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk and Quantification: A Linguistic Study
This article addresses (1) to what extent and (2) how the nounrisk is actually used quantitatively. Uses of the nounrisk are analyzed in four linguistic corpora, both Swedish and English (mostly American English). In total, over 16,000 uses of the nounrisk are studied in 14 random (n = 500) or complete samples (wheren ranges from 173 to 5,144) of, for example, news and magazine articles, fiction, and websites of government agencies. In contrast to the widespread definition of risk as a quantity, a main finding is that the nounrisk is mostly used nonquantitatively. Furthermore, when used quantitatively, the quanti...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 26, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Max Boholm Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recalibration of the Grunow –Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics
AbstractSuccessful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow –Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, includi ng eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weightin...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xin Chen, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Chandini Raina MacIntyre Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk and Planning in Agriculture: How Planning on Dairy Farms in Ireland Is Affected by Farmers ’ Regulatory Focus
This article examines how planning on dairy farms is affected by farmers' motivation. It argues that farmers' choice of expansion strategies can be specified in terms of risk decision making and understood as either prevention ‐focused or promotion‐focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined using mediated regression analyses where promotion/prevention focus was the independent variable and its effect on total milk production via planned expansion strategies was examined. The results indicate that p romotion focus among farmers has an indirect effect on farm expansion via planning strategies that inc...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John Garvey, Gordon Sirr, Deirdre O'Shea, Fergal O'Brien Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Recalibration of the Grunow –Finke Assessment Tool to Improve Performance in Detecting Unnatural Epidemics
AbstractSuccessful identification of unnatural epidemics relies on a sensitive risk assessment tool designed for the differentiation between unnatural and natural epidemics. The Grunow –Finke tool (GFT), which has been the most widely used, however, has low sensitivity in such differentiation. We aimed to recalibrate the GFT and improve the performance in detection of unnatural epidemics. The comparator was the original GFT and its application in 11 historical outbreaks, includi ng eight confirmed unnatural outbreaks and three natural outbreaks. Three steps were involved: (i) removing criteria, (ii) changing weightin...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xin Chen, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, Chandini Raina MacIntyre Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk and Planning in Agriculture: How Planning on Dairy Farms in Ireland Is Affected by Farmers ’ Regulatory Focus
This article examines how planning on dairy farms is affected by farmers' motivation. It argues that farmers' choice of expansion strategies can be specified in terms of risk decision making and understood as either prevention ‐focused or promotion‐focused motivation. This relationship was empirically examined using mediated regression analyses where promotion/prevention focus was the independent variable and its effect on total milk production via planned expansion strategies was examined. The results indicate that p romotion focus among farmers has an indirect effect on farm expansion via planning strategies that inc...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John Garvey, Gordon Sirr, Deirdre O'Shea, Fergal O'Brien Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Predictive Modeling and Categorizing Likelihoods of Quarantine Pest Introduction of Imported Propagative Commodities from Different Countries
This study presents risk‐based categorization for each country–commodity combination based on the probability of quarantine pest in terceptions and the uncertainty in that assessment. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 20, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: ByeongJoon Kim, Seung Cheon Hong, Daniel Egger, Catherine S. Katsar, Robert L. Griffin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Use of Telematics Devices to Improve Automobile Insurance Rates
AbstractMost automobile insurance databases contain a large number of policyholders with zero claims. This high frequency of zeros may reflect the fact that some insureds make little use of their vehicle, or that they do not wish to make a claim for small accidents in order to avoid an increase in their premium, but it might also be because of good driving. We analyze information on exposure to risk and driving habits using telematics data from a pay ‐as‐you‐drive sample of insureds. We include distance traveled per year as part of an offset in a zero‐inflated Poisson model to predict the excess of zeros. We show t...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Montserrat Guillen, Jens Perch Nielsen, Mercedes Ayuso, Ana M. P érez‐Marín Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Approach for Guiding the Development and Assessing the Interdisciplinarity of New Methodologies for Community Disaster Resilience
This article offers an approach for developing and assessing interdisciplinary research methodologies. The framework incorporates insights from social science into structural engineering for integrated research focused on community disaster resilience. The two examples offered in the article assess the interdisciplinarity of two loss estimation methodologies. The goal of this perspectives article is to facilitate future interdisciplinary community disaster resilience research given its potential for transformative outcomes in terms of encouraging decision making that is driven by the needs of those who are often overlooked...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 17, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Elaina J. Sutley Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Four Decades of Public Participation in Risk Decision Making
AbstractOver the past four decades, the promise of public participation to improve decisions, obtain legitimacy, and build capacity for risk decision making and management has had a mixed record. In this article, we offer a narrative of how public participation has evolved in the United States and we examine prospects for its future. We trace three forces that have had significant impact on practice: an emergent emphasis on democratic deliberation, a transition from dichotomous thinking about science versus politics to an integrated perspective, and the recognition that different parties to the decision ‐making process b...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 14, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Webler, Seth Tuler Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A New Methodology for Before –After Safety Assessment Using Survival Analysis and Longitudinal Data
AbstractThe widely used empirical Bayes (EB) and full Bayes (FB) methods for before –after safety assessment are sometimes limited because of the extensive data needs from additional reference sites. To address this issue, this study proposes a novel before–after safety evaluation methodology based on survival analysis and longitudinal data as an alternative to the EB/FB method . A Bayesian survival analysis (SARE) model with a random effect term to address the unobserved heterogeneity across sites is developed. The proposed survival analysis method is validated through a simulation study before its application...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 14, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Hong Yang, Di Yang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Four Decades of Public Participation in Risk Decision Making
AbstractOver the past four decades, the promise of public participation to improve decisions, obtain legitimacy, and build capacity for risk decision making and management has had a mixed record. In this article, we offer a narrative of how public participation has evolved in the United States and we examine prospects for its future. We trace three forces that have had significant impact on practice: an emergent emphasis on democratic deliberation, a transition from dichotomous thinking about science versus politics to an integrated perspective, and the recognition that different parties to the decision ‐making process b...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 14, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Thomas Webler, Seth Tuler Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The “Inter” Within Interdisciplinary Research: Strategies for Building Integration Across Fields
This article presents signs of successful interdisciplinary research and proposes strategies that researchers can implement to help create and sustain integration across fields. Drawing on the authors ’ experiences, other examples from hazards research, and the literature on interdisciplinarity, the article asserts that successful interdisciplinary research incorporates full intellectual participation by each contributing field, forming a multiway partnership. Such work can frame new research q uestions, develop novel approaches, and generate innovative insights across and within disciplines. It can also address comp...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 12, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rebecca E. Morss, Heather Lazrus, Julie L. Demuth Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Evaluating Collaborative Readiness for Interdisciplinary Flood Research
AbstractIncreasing trends in global flood risk are driven by a complex web of interactions among natural, built environment, and social systems. As a result, flood resilience research is an ideal topic for an interdisciplinary approach. Core characteristics of interdisciplinary research are team collaboration and the systematic integration of disciplinary knowledge, in both problem formulation and analytical methods. Indicators of interdisciplinarity tend to focus on scholarly outcomes, but collaborative processes may be even more important for knowledge integration. In this Perspective piece, we outline and advocate a two...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Eric Tate, Valerie Decker, Craig Just Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?
This article questions the extent to which this call will have and should have implications for the risk field and science. Is the call based on a belief that this field and science should be replaced by resilience analysis and management, or is it more about priorities: Should more weight be placed on improving resilience? The article argues that the only meaningful interpretation of the call is the latter. Resilience analysis and management is today an integrated part of the risk field and science, and risk analysis in a broad sense is needed to increase relevant knowledge, develop adequate policies, and make the right d...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 10, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Science for Policy: A Case Study of Scientific Polarization, Values, and the Framing of Risk and Uncertainty
This study is an attempt to unveil underlying values in a contemporary debate, where both sides use scientific evidence to support their argument. We analyze the problem framing, vocabulary, interpretation of evidence, and policy recommendations, with particular attention to the fra ming of nature and technology. We find clear differences between the two arguments. One side stress that there is no evidence that the present approach is causing harm to humans or the environment, does not ruminate on uncertainties to that end, references nature's ability to handle the problem, and indicates distrust in technological solutions...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 10, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sarah Mason ‐Renton, Marco Vazquez, Connor Robinson, Gunilla Oberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Call for a Shift from Risk to Resilience: What Does it Mean?
This article questions the extent to which this call will have and should have implications for the risk field and science. Is the call based on a belief that this field and science should be replaced by resilience analysis and management, or is it more about priorities: Should more weight be placed on improving resilience? The article argues that the only meaningful interpretation of the call is the latter. Resilience analysis and management is today an integrated part of the risk field and science, and risk analysis in a broad sense is needed to increase relevant knowledge, develop adequate policies, and make the right d...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 10, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Science for Policy: A Case Study of Scientific Polarization, Values, and the Framing of Risk and Uncertainty
This study is an attempt to unveil underlying values in a contemporary debate, where both sides use scientific evidence to support their argument. We analyze the problem framing, vocabulary, interpretation of evidence, and policy recommendations, with particular attention to the fra ming of nature and technology. We find clear differences between the two arguments. One side stress that there is no evidence that the present approach is causing harm to humans or the environment, does not ruminate on uncertainties to that end, references nature's ability to handle the problem, and indicates distrust in technological solutions...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 10, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sarah Mason ‐Renton, Marco Vazquez, Connor Robinson, Gunilla Oberg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Erratum
Risk Analysis, Volume 38, Issue 12, Page 2738-2739, December 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 7, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Erratum Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 38, Issue 12, December 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 7, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Introduction to Special Series: Communicating About Zika
Risk Analysis, Volume 38, Issue 12, Page 2504-2506, December 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 7, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominique Brossard, Kathleen Hall Jamieson, William Hallman Tags: Editorial Source Type: research