Reaping the Benefits and Avoiding the Risks: Unrealistic Optimism in the Health Domain
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 4, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yaniv Hanoch, Jonathan Rolison, Alexandra M. Freund Source Type: research

Terrorism Risk Assessment, Recollection Bias, and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending
AbstractRecollection bias (RB) refers to the phenomenon whereby after an adverse event people report that their risk assessment about a similar future event is presently no higher than their recollection of their pre ‐event risk assessment. While previous research has outlined this theoretical construct and generated important empirical findings, there were some limitations. We design and employ a new national representative survey to address these limitations in this study. We examine the existence and persis tence of RB among the general public in the context of a number of domestic and international terrorist attacks....
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xinsheng Liu, Kent E. Portney, Jeryl L. Mumpower, Arnold Vedlitz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception
AbstractDecades of research identify risk perception as a largely intuitive and affective construct, in contrast to the more deliberative assessments of probability and consequences that form the foundation of risk assessment. However, a review of the literature reveals that many of the risk perception measures employed in survey research with human subjects are either generic in nature, not capturing any particular affective, probabilistic, or consequential dimension of risk; or focused solely on judgments of probability. The goal of this research was to assess a multidimensional measure of risk perception across multiple...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robyn S. Wilson, Adam Zwickle, Hugh Walpole Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cost ‐Effective Sampling and Analysis for Mycotoxins in a Cereal Batch
This study aimed to find the most cost ‐effective sampling and analysis (S&A) plan in the cases of the mycotoxins deoxynivalenol (DON) in a wheat batch and aflatoxins (AFB1) in a maize batch. An optimization model was constructed, maximizing the number of correct decisions for accepting/rejecting a batch of cereals, with a budget as major constraint. The decision variables were the choice of the analytical method: instrumental method (e.g., liquid chromatography combined with mass ‐spectrometry (LC‐MS/MS)), enzyme‐linked‐immuno‐assay (ELISA), or lateral flow devices (LFD), the number of incremental samples ...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. Focker, H. J. der Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Terrorism Risk Assessment, Recollection Bias, and Public Support for Counterterrorism Policy and Spending
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xinsheng Liu, Kent E. Portney, Jeryl L. Mumpower, Arnold Vedlitz Source Type: research

Developing a Broadly Applicable Measure of Risk Perception
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robyn S. Wilson, Adam Zwickle, Hugh Walpole Source Type: research

Cost ‐Effective Sampling and Analysis for Mycotoxins in a Cereal Batch
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 2, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. Focker, H. J. der Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Source Type: research

Addressing Challenges to Building Resilience Through Interdisciplinary Research and Engagement
We present one interdisciplinary group's approach to addressing challenges to building resilience through proactive planning, including: (1) characterizing hazards more accurately; (2) improving understanding of the vulnerability of natural (e.g., climate and infrastructure) systems subject to hazards; and (3) capturing potential synergies from interactions between planning and policies that govern decisions about the design of human settlements in hazardous areas. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 27, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip R. Berke, Steven M. Quiring, Francisco Olivera, Jennifer A. Horney Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Combining Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Health, Food Waste, and Energy Consumption: The Next Step in the Development of the Food Cold Chain?
This study focuses on the cold chain of cooked ham, including transport, cold room in supermarket, display cabinet, transport by consumer, and domestic refrigerator, and aims to predict the risk for human health associated withListeria monocytogenes, the amount of food wasted due to the growth of spoilage bacteria, and the electrical consumption to maintain product temperature through the cold chain. A set of eight intervention actions were tested to evaluate their impact on the three criteria. Results show that the modification of the thermostat of the domestic refrigerator has a high impact on food safety and food waste ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 27, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Steven Duret, Hong ‐Minh Hoang, Evelyne Derens‐Bertheau, Anthony Delahaye, Onrawee Laguerre, Laurent Guillier Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Addressing Challenges to Building Resilience Through Interdisciplinary Research and Engagement
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 27, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip R. Berke, Steven M. Quiring, Francisco Olivera, Jennifer A. Horney Source Type: research

Combining Quantitative Risk Assessment of Human Health, Food Waste, and Energy Consumption: The Next Step in the Development of the Food Cold Chain?
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 27, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Steven Duret, Hong ‐Minh Hoang, Evelyne Derens‐Bertheau, Anthony Delahaye, Onrawee Laguerre, Laurent Guillier Source Type: research

Statistical Approach to Identify Threshold and Point of Departure in Dose –Response Data
AbstractThe study presents an integrated, rigorous statistical approach to define the likelihood of a threshold and point of departure (POD) based on dose –response data using nested family of bent‐hyperbola models. The family includes four models: the fullbent ‐hyperbola model, which allows for transition between two linear regiments with various levels of smoothness; a bent ‐hyperbola model reduced to aspline model, where the transition is fixed to a knot; a bent ‐hyperbola model with a restricted negative asymptote slope of zero, named hockey‐stick with arc (HS ‐Arc); and spline model reduced further t...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 25, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Maria A. Spassova Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Statistical Approach to Identify Threshold and Point of Departure in Dose –Response Data
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 25, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Maria A. Spassova Source Type: research

A Data ‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand
AbstractThe U.S. electric power system is increasingly vulnerable to the adverse impacts of extreme climate events. Supply inadequacy risk can result from climate ‐induced shifts in electricity demand and/or damaged physical assets due to hydro‐meteorological hazards and climate change. In this article, we focus on the risks associated with the unanticipated climate‐induced demand shifts and propose a data‐driven approach to identify risk factors that render the electricity sector vulnerable in the face of future climate variability and change. More specifically, we have leveraged advanced supervised learning theor...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sayanti Mukherjee, Roshanak Nateghi Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cultural Values, Trust, and Benefit ‐Risk Perceptions of Hydraulic Fracturing: A Comparative Analysis of Policy Elites and the General Public
This study utilizes a recently conducted survey distributed to a sample of policy elites and the general public in Arkansas and Oregon to examine the role of cultural value predispositions and trust in shaping the perceptions of risks and benefits associated with fracking. Findings indicate that cultural values influence both trust and benefit‐risk perceptions of fracking for both policy elites and the general public. More specifically, we found that trust in information from vario us sources isderived from the intrinsic values held by an individual, which in turn impacts perceptions of related benefits and risks. We als...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Creed Tumlison, Geoboo Song Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Data ‐Driven Approach to Assessing Supply Inadequacy Risks Due to Climate‐Induced Shifts in Electricity Demand
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sayanti Mukherjee, Roshanak Nateghi Source Type: research

Cultural Values, Trust, and Benefit ‐Risk Perceptions of Hydraulic Fracturing: A Comparative Analysis of Policy Elites and the General Public
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Creed Tumlison, Geoboo Song Source Type: research

Lost in Translation? Integrating Interdisciplinary Disaster Research with Policy Praxis
This article argues that to effectivel y integrate policy‐relevant goals, researchers need to understand the obstacles to transcending disciplinary borders to incorporate the perspectives of policy practitioners. Researchers also need to understand problems in integration when it takes place within research groups or entities comprised of a variety of scholars from diverse disciplines working with a set of practitioners from different agencies or levels of government. Impediments to integration include epistemological, disciplinary, and attitudinal barriers, differences in terminologies and timescales, the role of organi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alka Sapat Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

sCARy! Risk Perceptions in Autonomous Driving: The Influence of Experience on Perceived Benefits and Barriers
AbstractThe increasing development of autonomous vehicles (AVs) influences the future of transportation. Beyond the potential benefits in terms of safety, efficiency, and comfort, also potential risks of novel driving technologies need to be addressed. In this article, we explore risk perceptions toward connected and autonomous driving in comparison to conventional driving. In order to gain a deeper understanding of individual risk perceptions, we adopted a two ‐step empirical procedure. First, focus groups (N=17) were carried out to identify relevant risk factors for autonomous and connected driving. Further, a question...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Teresa Brell, Ralf Philipsen, Martina Ziefle Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Workforce/Population, Economy, Infrastructure, Geography, Hierarchy, and Time (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural Dimensions of Disaster Resilience
AbstractThe concept of resilience and its relevance to disaster risk management has increasingly gained attention in recent years. It is common for risk and resilience studies to model system recovery by analyzing a single or aggregated measure of performance, such as economic output or system functionality. However, the history of past disasters and recent risk literature suggest that a single ‐dimension view of relevant systems is not only insufficient, but can compromise the ability to manage risk for these systems. In this article, we explore how multiple dimensions influence the ability for complex systems to functi...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joost Santos, Christian Yip, Shital Thekdi, Sheree Pagsuyoin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

When Is a Risk Assessment Deficient According to an Uncertainty ‐Based Risk Perspective?
AbstractThe Petroleum Safety Authority Norway (PSA ‐N) has recently adopted a new definition of risk: “the consequences of an activity with the associated uncertainty.” The PSA‐N has also been using “deficient risk assessment” for some time as a basis for assigning nonconformities in audit reports. This creates an opportunity to study th e link between risk perspective and risk assessment quality in a regulatory context, and, in the present article, we take a hard look at the term “deficient risk assessment” both normatively and empirically. First, we perform a conceptual analysis of...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marie R øyksund, Roger Flage Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation
AbstractSurveillance for poliovirus during the polio endgame remains uncertain. Building on prior modeling of the potential for undetected poliovirus transmission for conditions like those in Pakistan and Afghanistan, we use a hypothetical model to explore several key characteristics of the poliovirus environmental surveillance (ES) system (e.g., number and quality of sites, catchment sizes, and sampling frequency) and characterize their impacts on the time required to reach high (i.e., 95%) confidence about no circulation (CNC95%) following the last detected case of serotype 1 wild poliovirus. The nature and quality of th...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan
AbstractOnly Pakistan and Afghanistan reported any polio cases caused by serotype 1 wild polioviruses (WPV1s) in 2017. With the dwindling cases in both countries and pressure to finish eradication with the least possible resources, a danger exists of inappropriate prioritization of efforts between the two countries and insufficient investment in the two countries to finish the job. We used an existing differential ‐equation‐based poliovirus transmission and oral poliovirus (OPV) evolution model to simulate a proactive strategy to stop transmission, and different hypothetical reactive strategies that adapt the quality o...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Radboud J. Duintjer Tebbens, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Workforce/Population, Economy, Infrastructure, Geography, Hierarchy, and Time (WEIGHT): Reflections on the Plural Dimensions of Disaster Resilience
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: JoostSantos , ChristianYip , ShitalThekdi , ShereePagsuyoin Source Type: research

When Is a Risk Assessment Deficient According to an Uncertainty ‐Based Risk Perspective?
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: MarieR øyksund , RogerFlage Source Type: research

Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A.Kalkowska , Radboud J.Duintjer Tebbens , Kimberly M.Thompson Source Type: research

Evaluation of Proactive and Reactive Strategies for Polio Eradication Activities in Pakistan and Afghanistan
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Radboud J.Duintjer Tebbens , Kimberly M.Thompson Source Type: research

Lost in Translation? Integrating Interdisciplinary Disaster Research with Policy Praxis
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: AlkaSapat Source Type: research

sCARy! Risk Perceptions in Autonomous Driving: The Influence of Experience on Perceived Benefits and Barriers
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 21, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: TeresaBrell , RalfPhilipsen , MartinaZiefle Source Type: research

Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak
AbstractOutbreaks of influenza represent an important health concern worldwide. In many cases, vaccines are only partially successful in reducing the infection rate, and respiratory protective devices (RPDs) are used as a complementary countermeasure. In devising a protection strategy against influenza for a given population, estimates of the level of protection afforded by different RPDs is valuable. In this article, a risk assessment model previously developed in general form was used to estimate the effectiveness of different types of protective equipment in reducing the rate of infection in an influenza outbreak. It wa...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jing Yan, Suvajyoti Guha, Prasanna Hariharan, Matthew Myers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From Ideal to Real Risk: Philosophy of Causation Meets Risk Analysis
AbstractA question has been raised in recent years as to whether the risk field, including analysis, assessment, and management, ought to be considered a discipline on its own. As suggested by Terje Aven, unification of the risk field would require a common understanding of basic concepts, such as risk and probability; hence, more discussion is needed of what he calls “foundational issues.” In this article, we show that causation is a foundational issue of risk, and that a proper understanding of it is crucial. We propose that some old ideas about the nature of causation must be abandoned in order to overcome c...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rani Lill Anjum, Elena Rocca Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa
AbstractA detailed mathematical modeling framework for the risk of airborne infectious disease transmission in indoor spaces was developed to enable mathematical analysis of experiments conducted at the Airborne Infections Research (AIR) facility, eMalahleni, South Africa. A model was built using this framework to explore possible causes of why an experiment at the AIR facility did not produce expected results. The experiment was conducted at the AIR facility from August 31, 2015 to December 4, 2015, in which the efficacy of upper room germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) irradiation as an environmental control was tested. However...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ralf R. K üsel, Ian K. Craig, Anton C. Stoltz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Effectiveness of Respiratory Protective Devices in Reducing Influenza Outbreak
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: JingYan , SuvajyotiGuha , PrasannaHariharan , MatthewMyers Source Type: research

From Ideal to Real Risk: Philosophy of Causation Meets Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rani LillAnjum , ElenaRocca Source Type: research

Modeling the Airborne Infection Risk of Tuberculosis for a Research Facility in eMalahleni, South Africa
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ralf R.K üsel , Ian K.Craig , Anton C.Stoltz Source Type: research

Mercury Levels and Risk Implications Through Fish Consumption on the Sinaloa Coasts (Gulf of California, Northwest Mexico)
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nydia ‐YurianaZamora‐Arellano , MiguelBetancourt‐Lozano , CésarIlizaliturri‐Hernández , JaquelineGarcía‐Hernández , MatínJara‐Marini , CristinaChávez‐Sánchez , Jorge RicardoRuelas‐Inzunza Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 9, September 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 9, Page 1763-1764, September 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: TonyCox , KarenLowrie Source Type: research

Bernard Goldstein: Building Risk Analysis Institutions
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 9, Page 1765-1771, September 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 19, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael R.Greenberg , Karen W.Lowrie Source Type: research

Residential Location and Psychological Distance in Americans ’ Risk Views and Behavioral Intentions Regarding Zika Virus
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B.Johnson Source Type: research

Conflict of Interest Mitigation Procedures May Have Little Influence on the Perceived Procedural Fairness of Risk ‐Related Research
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C.Besley , Nagwan R.Zahry , AaronMcCright , Kevin C.Elliott , Norbert E.Kaminski , Joseph D.Martin Source Type: research

Probabilistic Integrated Human Mixture Risk Assessment of Multiple Metals Through Seafood Consumption
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yi ‐JunLin , PinpinLin Source Type: research

The Critical Theory of World Risk Society: A Retrospective Analysis
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 31, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: GabeMythen Source Type: research

Change in Public Concern and Responsive Behaviors Toward Air Pollution Under the Dome
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 31, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: ChuanshenQin , JianhuaXu , GabrielleWong ‐Parodi , LanXue Source Type: research

How Should Autonomous Cars Drive? A Preference for Defaults in Moral Judgments Under Risk and Uncertainty
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 29, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Bj örnMeder , NadineFleischhut , Nina‐CarolinKrumnau , Michael R.Waldmann Source Type: research

Setting Air Quality Standards for PM2.5: A Role for Subjective Uncertainty in NAAQS Quantitative Risk Assessments?
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 28, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anne E.Smith Source Type: research

An Insurance Model for Risk Management of Process Facilities
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 28, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seyed JavadHashemi , FaisalKhan , SalimAhmed Source Type: research

The Impact of Portfolio Location Uncertainty on Probabilistic Seismic Risk Analysis
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: ChristophScheingraber , Martin A.K äser Source Type: research

Spatial Transmission Models: A Taxonomy and Framework
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Duncan A.Robertson Source Type: research

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment of Salmonellosis from the Consumption of Australian Pork: Minced Meat from Retail to Burgers Prepared and Consumed at Home
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 24, 2018 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Phillip M.Gurman , TomRoss , AndreasKiermeier Source Type: research