Risk –Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection
This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precis...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seth D. Baum Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation
AbstractEmergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single ‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this a rticle introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanyan Wang, Vicki M. Bier, Baiqing Sun Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk –Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection
This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precis...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seth D. Baum Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation
AbstractEmergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single ‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this a rticle introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanyan Wang, Vicki M. Bier, Baiqing Sun Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling of Distributed Generators Resilience Considering Lifeline Dependencies During Extreme Events
This article derives distributed generators resilience models considering lifeline dependencies during extreme events. The effects on power resilience of storage capacity, fuel delays, and fuel order placements are analyzed. Results indicate that storage capacity has an important role in improving overall power supply resilience as seen by loads. In addition, the presented models provide a quantifiable approach in evaluating fuel delivery resilience. The models facilitate studying fuel scheduling policies and local fuel storage sizing for specified resilience requirements. It is observed that tank autonomy greatly affects ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Vaidyanathan Krishnamurthy, Alexis Kwasinski Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perception and Human Health Risk in Rural Communities Consuming Unregulated Well Water in Saskatchewan, Canada
AbstractRural communities dependent on unregulated drinking water are potentially at increased health risk from exposure to contaminants. Perception of drinking water safety influences water consumption, exposure, and health risk. A community ‐based participatory approach and probabilistic Bayesian methods were applied to integrate risk perception in a holistic human health risk assessment. Tap water arsenic concentrations and risk perception data were collected from two Saskatchewan communities. Drinking water health standards were ex ceeded in 67% (51/76) of households in Rural Municipality #184 (RM184) and 56% (25/45)...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lorelei Ford, Cheryl Waldner, Javier Sanchez, Lalita Bharadwaj Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Practical Significance of Measurement Error in Pulmonary Function Testing Conducted in Research Settings
AbstractConventional spirometry produces measurement error by using repeatability criteria (RC) to discard acceptable data and terminating tests early when RC are met. These practices also implicitly assume that there is no variation across maneuvers within each test. This has implications for air pollution regulations that rely on pulmonary function tests to determine adverse effects or set standards. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,902 tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), each with eight maneuvers, for an individual with empirically obtained, plausibly normal pulmonary function. Default coeffic...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard B. Belzer, R. Jeffrey Lewis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Frontiers of Uncertainty Estimation in Interdisciplinary Disaster Research and Practice
AbstractConceptualizing, assessing, and managing disaster risks involve collecting and synthesizing pluralistic information —from natural, built, and human systems—to characterize disaster impacts and guide policy on effective resilience investments. Disaster research and practice, therefore, are highly complex and inherently interdisciplinary endeavors. Characterizing the uncertainties involved in interdisciplinary disaster research is imperative, since misrepresenting uncertainty can lead to myopic decisions and suboptimal societal outcomes. Efficacious disaster mitigation should, therefore, explicitly addres...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Roshanak Nateghi, Jeannette Sutton, Pamela Murray ‐Tuite Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions
This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential bar riers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceive d ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emma J. Williams, Emily Blackwell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Illustration of a Method to Incorporate Preference Uncertainty in Benefit –Cost Analysis
AbstractBenefit –cost analysis is widely used to evaluate alternative courses of action that are designed to achieve policy objectives. Although many analyses take uncertainty into account, they typically only consider uncertainty about cost estimates and physical states of the world, whereas uncertainty about in dividual preferences, thus the benefit of policy intervention, is ignored. Here, we propose a strategy to integrate individual uncertainty about preferences into benefit–cost analysis usingsocietal preference intervals, which are ranges of values over which it is unclear whether society as a whole shou...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, Alexander L. Davis, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India
This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability (VS), vulnerability to property (VP), and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness (VA). The associated risk has been estimated fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Pratyay Manna, Mohammed Zafar Anis, Prasun Das, Soumya Banerjee Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions
This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential bar riers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceive d ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emma J. Williams, Emily Blackwell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Illustration of a Method to Incorporate Preference Uncertainty in Benefit –Cost Analysis
AbstractBenefit –cost analysis is widely used to evaluate alternative courses of action that are designed to achieve policy objectives. Although many analyses take uncertainty into account, they typically only consider uncertainty about cost estimates and physical states of the world, whereas uncertainty about in dividual preferences, thus the benefit of policy intervention, is ignored. Here, we propose a strategy to integrate individual uncertainty about preferences into benefit–cost analysis usingsocietal preference intervals, which are ranges of values over which it is unclear whether society as a whole shou...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, Alexander L. Davis, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk ‐Averse and Risk‐Seeking Individuals
This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage ‐risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marcela V. Parada ‐Contzen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Rethinking Resilience Analytics
This article explains the limitations of resilience analytics when critical infrastructure systems are ch allenged by fundamental surprises never conceived during model development. In these cases, adoption of resilience analytics may prove either useless for decision support or harmful by increasing dangers during unprecedented events. We demonstrate that these dangers are not limited to a single CPS c ontext by highlighting the limits of analytic models during hurricanes, dam failures, blackouts, and stock market crashes. We conclude that resilience analytics alone are not able to adapt to the very events that motivate t...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 16, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel Eisenberg, Thomas Seager, David L. Alderson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Do Interactions Between Environmental Chemicals and the Human Microbiome Need to Be Considered in Risk Assessments?
AbstractOne of the most dynamic and fruitful areas of current health ‐related research concerns the various roles of the human microbiome in disease. Evidence is accumulating that interactions between substances in the environment and the microbiome can affect risks of disease, in both beneficial and adverse ways. Although most of the research has concerned the rol es of diet and certain pharmaceutical agents, there is increasing interest in the possible roles of environmental chemicals. Chemical risk assessment has, to date, not included consideration of the influence of the microbiome. We suggest that failure to consid...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 8, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joseph Rodricks, Yvonne Huang, Ellen Mantus, Pamela Shubat Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk ‐Informed Requirements for Design and Assessment of Structures Under Temporary Use
AbstractThe relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular. There is a need for establishing appropriate target reliability levels for structures under tempo...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ramon Hingorani, Peter Tanner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Trust and Risk Perception: A Critical Review of the Literature
AbstractMany studies in the field of risk perception and acceptance of hazards include trust as an explanatory variable. Despite this, the importance of trust has often been questioned. The relevant issue is not only whether trust is crucial but also the form of trust that people rely on in a given situation. In this review, I discuss various trust models and the relationship between trust and affect heuristics. I conclude that the importance of trust varies by hazard and respondent group. Most of the studies use surveys that provide limited information about causality. Future research should focus more on experiments that...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Siegrist Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Review of Recent Advances in Benchmark Dose Methodology
AbstractIn this review, recent methodological developments for the benchmark dose (BMD) methodology are summarized. Specifically, we introduce the advances for the main steps in BMD derivation: selecting the procedure for defining a BMD from a predefined benchmark response (BMR), setting a BMR, selecting a dose –response model, and estimating the corresponding BMD lower limit (BMDL). Although the last decade has shown major progress in the development of BMD methodology, there is still room for improvement. Remaining challenges are the implementation of new statistical methods in user‐friendly software and the lack...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 1, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Signe M. Jensen, Felix M. Kluxen, Christian Ritz Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams
This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate ‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requireme nts for continuous fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saeed Nozhati, Bruce R. Ellingwood, Hussam Mahmoud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Network Reconfiguration for Increasing Transportation System Resilience Under Extreme Events
AbstractEvacuating residents out of affected areas is an important strategy for mitigating the impact of natural disasters. However, the resulting abrupt increase in the travel demand during evacuation causes severe congestions across the transportation system, which thereby interrupts other commuters' regular activities. In this article, a bilevel mathematical optimization model is formulated to address this issue, and our research objective is to maximize the transportation system resilience and restore its performance through two network reconfiguration schemes: contraflow (also referred to as lane reversal) and crossin...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xiaoge Zhang, Sankaran Mahadevan, Kai Goebel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interventions Targeting Deep Tissue Lymph Nodes May Not Effectively Reduce the Risk of Salmonellosis from Ground Pork Consumption: A Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractThe inclusion of deep tissue lymph nodes (DTLNs) or nonvisceral lymph nodes contaminated withSalmonella in wholesale fresh ground pork (WFGP) production may pose risks to public health. To assess the relative contribution of DTLNs to human salmonellosis occurrence associated with ground pork consumption and to investigate potential critical control points in the slaughter ‐to‐table continuum for the control of human salmonellosis in the United States, a quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was established. The model predicted an average of 45 cases of salmonellosis (95% CI = [19, 71]) per 100,000...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yangjunna Zhang, Annette M. O'Connor, Chong Wang, James S. Dickson, H. Scott Hurd, Bing Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 5, May 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 5, Page 957-958, May 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Is Allocation Affected by the Perception of Others' Irresponsible Behavior and by Ambiguity?
AbstractThe article examines how the perception of others' irresponsible behavior and ambiguity regarding probabilities affect allocation among potential beneficiaries. To elicit these views, we conducted a survey where the participants were first asked to make an allocation of a fixed sum of money between a hereditary cancer, where chance plays a central role, and a lifestyle ‐related cancer, where individual lifestyle decisions are more important. Our estimation results show that a substantial share of the respondents allocate significantly more to the hereditary cancer. This may indicate that these respondents care ab...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zvi Safra, Sinong Ma, Tigran Melkonyan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Adoption of Individual Flood Damage Mitigation Measures in New York City: An Extension of Protection Motivation Theory
This study offers insights into factors of influence on the implementation of flood damage mitigation measures by more than 1,000 homeowners who live in flood ‐prone areas in New York City. Our theoretical basis for explaining flood preparedness decisions is protection motivation theory, which we extend using a variety of other variables that can have an important influence on individual decision making under risk, such as risk attitudes, time preferenc es, social norms, trust, and local flood risk management policies. Our results in relation to our main hypothesis are as follows. Individuals who live in high flood risk ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: W. J. Wouter Botzen, Howard Kunreuther, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Hans Moel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Shannon Entropy for Quantifying Uncertainty and Risk in Economic Disparity
This article introduces the quantification of Shannon entropy for income inequality across scales, including national ‐, subnational‐, and city‐level data. The probabilistic principles of Shannon entropy provide a new interpretation for uncertainty and risk related to economic disparity. Entropy and information‐based conflict rise as world incomes converge. High‐entropy instances can resemble both happy a nd prosperous societies as well as a socialist–communist social structure. Low entropy signals high‐risk tipping points for anomaly and conflict detection with higher confidence. Finally, spatial–t...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Saurabh Mishra, Bilal M. Ayyub Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential Airborne Asbestos Exposure and Risk Associated with the Historical Use of Cosmetic Talcum Powder Products
AbstractOver time, concerns have been raised regarding the potential for human exposure and risk from asbestos in cosmetic ‐talc–containing consumer products. In 1985, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) conducted a risk assessment evaluating the potential inhalation asbestos exposure associated with the cosmetic talc consumer use scenario of powdering an infant during diapering, and found that risks were be low levels associated with background asbestos exposures and risk. However, given the scope and age of the FDA's assessment, it was unknown whether the agency's conclusions remained relevant to current ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 11, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Amanda M. Burns, Christy A. Barlow, Amber M. Banducci, Kenneth M. Unice, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research
AbstractCultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations —hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist—produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky'sRisk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior. We explain what CT is and how it developed; describe and evaluate its contribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson, Brendon Swedlow Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Causation Analysis of Risk Coupling of Gas Explosion Accident in Chinese Underground Coal Mines
AbstractThe coal mine production industry is a complex sociotechnical system with interactive relationships among several risk factors. Currently, causation analysis of gas explosion accidents is mainly focused on the aspects of human error and equipment fault, while neglecting the interactive relationships among risk factors. A new method is proposed through risk coupling. First, the meaning ofrisk coupling of a gas explosion is defined, and types of risk coupling are classified. Next, the coupled relationship and coupled effects among risk factors are explored through combining the interpretative structural modeling (ISM...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jinjia Zhang, Kaili Xu, Greg You, Beibei Wang, Lei Zhao Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Cultural Theory's Contributions to Risk Analysis: A Thematic Review with Directions and Resources for Further Research
AbstractCultural theory (CT) developed from grid/group analysis, which posits that different patterns of social relations —hierarchist, individualist, egalitarian, and fatalist—produce compatible cultural biases influencing assessment of which hazards pose high or low risk and how to manage them. Introduced to risk analysis (RA) in 1982 by Douglas and Wildavsky'sRisk and Culture, this institutional approach to social construction of risk surprised a field hitherto focused on psychological influences on risk perceptions and behavior. We explain what CT is and how it developed; describe and evaluate its contribut...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson, Brendon Swedlow Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Vicki Bier: A More Sensible Way to View Risk
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, Page 744-748, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 4, Page 741-743, April 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Risk and the Five Hard Problems of Cybersecurity
AbstractThis perspectives article addresses risk in cyber defense and identifies opportunities to incorporate risk analysis principles into the cybersecurity field. The Science of Security (SoS) initiative at the National Security Agency seeks to further and promote interdisciplinary research in cybersecurity. SoS organizes its research into the Five Hard Problems (5HP): (1) scalability and composability; (2) policy ‐governed secure collaboration; (3) security‐metrics–driven evaluation, design, development, and deployment; (4) resilient architectures; and (5) understanding and accounting for human behavior. Howev...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Natalie M. Scala, Allison C. Reilly, Paul L. Goethals, Michel Cukier Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Managing Safety ‐Related Disruptions: Evidence from the U.S. Nuclear Power Industry
AbstractLow ‐probability, high‐impact events are difficult to manage. Firms may underinvest in risk assessments for low‐probability, high‐impact events because it is not easy to link the direct and indirect benefits of doing so. Scholarly research on the effectiveness of programs aimed at reducing such events faces the same challenge. In this article, we draw on comprehensive industry‐wide data from the U.S. nuclear power industry to explore the impact of conducting probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) on preventing safety‐related disruptions. We examine this using data from over 25,000 monthly event reports acr...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Christian C. Blanco, Felipe Caro, Charles J. Corbett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Peak Exposures in Epidemiologic Studies and Cancer Risks: Considerations for Regulatory Risk Assessment
AbstractWe review approaches for characterizing “peak” exposures in epidemiologic studies and methods for incorporating peak exposure metrics in dose–response assessments that contribute to risk assessment. The focus was on potential etiologic relations between environmental chemical exposures and cancer risks. We searched the epidemiologic literature on environmental chemicals classified as carcinogens in which cancer risks were described in relation to “peak” exposures. These articles were evaluated to identify some of the challenges associated with defining and describing cancer risks in re...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Harvey Checkoway, Peter S. J. Lees, Linda D. Dell, P. Robinan Gentry, Kenneth A. Mundt Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Multicompartment SIS Stochastic Model with Zonal Ventilation for the Spread of Nosocomial Infections: Detection, Outbreak Management, and Infection Control
AbstractIn this work, we study the environmental and operational factors that influence airborne transmission of nosocomial infections. We link a deterministic zonal ventilation model for the airborne distribution of infectious material in a hospital ward, with a Markovian multicompartment SIS model for the infection of individuals within this ward, in order to conduct a parametric study on ventilation rates and their effect on the epidemic dynamics. Our stochastic model includes arrival and discharge of patients, as well as the detection of the outbreak by screening events or due to symptoms being shown by infective patie...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mart ín López‐García, Marco‐Felipe King, Catherine J. Noakes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Residents ’ Reactions to Earthquake Early Warnings in Japan
This article empirically examines the effectiveness of earthquake early warning (EEW) in Japan based on experiences of residents who received warnings before earthquake shaking occurred. In Study 1, a survey (N = 299) was conducted to investigate residents ’ experiences of, and reactions to, an EEW issued in Gunma and neighboring regions on June 17, 2018. The main results were as follows. (1) People's primary reactions to the EEW were mental, not physical, and thus motionless. Most residents stayed still, not for safety reasons, but because they wer e focusing on mentally bracing themselves. (2) Residents perceived t...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kazuya Nakayachi, Julia S. Becker, Sally H. Potter, Maximilian Dixon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Trends in Multidisciplinary Hazard and Disaster Research: A 1982 –2017 Case Study
This article provides unique perspectives on how to better allocate funds through extensive topic and funding analysis. This work is a brief analysis of trends in the hazard and disaster research community, focusing on multidisciplinary project teams and their correlation to funding amounts and research areas. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Adam Behrendt, Kathryn Lukasiewicz, Daniel Seaberg, Jun Zhuang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Experiments in Lay Cues to the Relative Validity of Positions Taken by Disputing Groups of Scientists
AbstractRisk analysis and hazard management can prompt varied intra ‐scientific disputes, some which have or will become public, and thus potentially available for lay judgments of the relative validity of the positions taken. As attentive laypeople may include elites as well as the general public, understanding whether and how cues to credibility of disputing gro ups of scientists might shape those lay judgments can be important. Relevant literatures from philosophy, social studies of science, risk analysis, and elsewhere have identified potential cues, but not tested their absolute or relative effects. Two experiments ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Branden B. Johnson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Definition and Categorization System for Advanced Materials: The Foundation for Risk ‐Informed Environmental Health and Safety Testing
In this study, we aim to establish a practitioner ‐driven definition for AdMs and a practitioner‐validated framework for categorizing AdMs into conceptual groupings based on material characteristics. Results from multiple workshops and interviews with practitioners provide consistent differentiation between AdMs and conventional materials, offe r functional nomenclature for application science, and provide utility for future ESOH risk assessment prioritization. The definition and categorization framework established here serve as a first step in determining if and when there is a need for specific ESOH and regulatory s...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 24, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alan Kennedy, Jonathon Brame, Taylor Rycroft, Matthew Wood, Valerie Zemba, Charles Weiss, Matthew Hull, Cary Hill, Charles Geraci, Igor Linkov Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating with the Public About Marauding Terrorist Firearms Attacks: Results from a Survey Experiment on Factors Influencing Intention to “Run, Hide, Tell” in the United Kingdom and Denmark
AbstractEffective risk communication is an integral part of responding to terrorism, but until recently, there has been very little pre ‐event communication in a European context to provide advice to the public on how to protect themselves during an attack. Following terrorist attacks involving mass shootings in Paris, France, in November 2015, the U.K. National Police Chiefs’ Council released aStay Safe film and leaflet that advises the public to “run,” “hide,” and “tell” in the event of a firearms or weapons attack. However, other countries, including Denmark, do not provide pr...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 19, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Julia M. Pearce, Lasse Lindekilde, David Parker, M. Brooke Rogers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research