Erratum to “A model of exposure to rotavirus from nondietary ingestion iterated by simulated intermittent contacts.” By T.R. Julian, R.A. Canales, J.O. Leckie, and A.B. Boehm, in Risk Analysis, 29(5):617–622
Article: Risk Analysis 2009; 29: 617–632 (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Erratum Source Type: research

Security Events and Vulnerability Data for Cybersecurity Risk Estimation
This article presents a model and methodology to leverage on the large amount of data available from the IT infrastructure of an organization's security operation center to quantitatively estimate the probability of attack. Our methodology specifically addresses untargeted attacks delivered by automatic tools that make up the vast majority of attacks in the wild against users and organizations. We consider two‐stage attacks whereby the attacker first breaches an Internet‐facing system, and then escalates the attack to internal systems by exploiting local vulnerabilities in the target. Our methodology factors in the pow...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Luca Allodi, Fabio Massacci Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Advances in Risk Analysis with Big Data
With cloud computing, Internet‐of‐things, wireless sensors, social media, fast storage and retrieval, etc., organizations and enterprises have access to unprecedented amounts and varieties of data. Current risk analysis methodology and applications are experiencing related advances and breakthroughs. For example, highway operations data are readily available, and making use of them reduces risks of traffic crashes and travel delays. Massive data of financial and enterprise systems support decision making under risk by individuals, industries, regulators, etc. In this introductory article, we first discuss the meaning o...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tsan ‐Ming Choi, James H. Lambert Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Dynamic Blowout Risk Analysis Using Loss Functions
Most risk analysis approaches are static; failing to capture evolving conditions. Blowout, the most feared accident during a drilling operation, is a complex and dynamic event. The traditional risk analysis methods are useful in the early design stage of drilling operation while falling short during evolving operational decision making. A new dynamic risk analysis approach is presented to capture evolving situations through dynamic probability and consequence models. The dynamic consequence models, the focus of this study, are developed in terms of loss functions. These models are subsequently integrated with the probabili...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Majeed Abimbola, Faisal Khan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Perspectives on Cybersecurity Information Sharing among Multiple Stakeholders Using a Decision ‐Theoretic Approach
This article also identifies the costs of information sharing and information security borne by different parties in this public‐private partnership both before and after cyber attacks, as well as the two main benefits. This article provides perspectives on the mechanism of information sharing and some detailed cost–benefit analysis. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Meilin He, Laura Devine, Jun Zhuang Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Environmental Exposure of the Adult French Population to Permethrin
This study is the first step in aggregated exposure and risk assessment due to pyrethroid exposure. Outdoor air, indoor air, and settled dust may constitute significant exposure sources, in addition to diet, which could be important. The next step entails assessing internal doses and estimating the proportion of each exposure source and pathway relative to internal exposure. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marie Hermant, Olivier Blanchard, Guillaume Perouel, Guillaume Boulanger, Mathilde Merlo, Virginie Desvignes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating Earthquake Preparedness: The Influence of Induced Mood, Perceived Risk, and Gain or Loss Frames on Homeowners ’ Attitudes Toward General Precautionary Measures for Earthquakes
Despite global efforts to reduce seismic risk, actual preparedness levels remain universally low. Although earthquake‐resistant building design is the most efficient way to decrease potential losses, its application is not a legal requirement across all earthquake‐prone countries and even if, often not strictly enforced. Risk communication encouraging homeowners to take precautionary measures is therefore an important means to enhance a country's earthquake resilience. Our study illustrates that specific interactions of mood, perceived risk, and frame type significantly affect homeowners’ attitudes toward general...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mich èle Marti, Michael Stauffacher, Jörg Matthes, Stefan Wiemer Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

When Does Poor Governance Presage Biosecurity Risk?
The objective of these inspections is to minimize the risk of contraband entering the country. As an example, for regulatory authorities in charge of biosecurity material, consignments of goods are classified before arrival according to their economic tariff number. This classification, perhaps along with other information, is used as a screening step to determine whether further biosecurity intervention, such as inspection, is necessary. Other information associated with consignments includes details such as the country of origin, supplier, and importer, for example. The choice of which consignments to inspect has typical...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Stephen E. Lane, Anthony D. Arthur, Christina Aston, Sam Zhao, Andrew P. Robinson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Communicating Low ‐Probability High‐Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 10, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Predicting the Risk of Biological Invasions Using Environmental Similarity and Transport Network Connectedness
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 10, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 10, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Communicating Low ‐Probability High‐Consequence Risk, Uncertainty and Expert Confidence: Induced Seismicity of Deep Geothermal Energy and Shale Gas
This study presents findings from an online experiment (N = 590) that empirically tested the public's responses to risk communication about induced seismicity and to different technology frames, namely deep geothermal energy (DGE) and shale gas (between‐subject design). Three incrementally different formats of written risk communication were tested: (i) qualitative, (ii) qualitative and quantitative, and (iii) qualitative and quantitative with risk comparison. Respondents found the latter two the easiest to understand, the most exact, and liked them the most. Adding uncertainty and expert confidence statements made the r...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 10, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Theresa A. K. Knoblauch, Michael Stauffacher, Evelina Trutnevyte Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Examining Factors that Influence the Existence of Heinrich's Safety Triangle Using Site ‐Specific H & S Data from More than 25,000 Establishments
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 585-602, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Hazard Analysis and Safety Requirements for Small Drone Operations: To What Extent Do Popular Drones Embed Safety?
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 562-584, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 585-602, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 562-584, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Is There Any Hope? How Climate Change News Imagery and Text Influence Audience Emotions and Support for Climate Mitigation Policies
Using a national sample, this study experimentally tests the effects of news visuals and texts that emphasize either the causes and impacts of climate change or actions that can be taken to address climate change. We test the effects of variations in text and imagery on discrete emotions (i.e., hope, fear, and anger) and, indirectly, on support for climate mitigation policies. Political ideology is examined as a moderator. The findings indicate that news images and texts that focus on climate‐oriented actions can increase hope and, in the case of texts, decrease fear and anger, and these effects generally hold across the...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lauren Feldman, P. Sol Hart Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Examining Factors that Influence the Existence of Heinrich's Safety Triangle Using Site ‐Specific H & S Data from More than 25,000 Establishments
This study explored the validity of the first tenet, the existence of the safety triangle. The advantage of the current study is the use of a detailed, establishment‐specific data set that evaluated over 25,000 establishments over a 13‐year time period, allowing three specific questions to be explored: (1) Are an increased number of lower severity incidents at an establishment significantly associated with the probability of a fatal event over time? (2) At the establishment level, do the effects of OSH incidents on the probability of a fatality over time decrease as the degree of severity decreases—thereby taking...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 2, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Patrick L. Yorio, Susan M. Moore Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Approach to Assess External Doses to the Public Considering Spatial Variability of Radioactive Contamination and Interpopulation Differences in Behavior Pattern
In this study, a dose assessment model was developed based on measurements and surveys of individual doses and relevant contributors (i.e., ambient dose rates and behavior patterns) in Fukushima City for four population groups: Fukushima City Office staff, Senior Citizens’ Club, Contractors’ Association, and Agricultural Cooperative. In addition, probabilistic assessments were performed for these population groups by considering the spatial variability of contamination and interpopulation differences resulting from behavior patterns. As a result of comparison with the actual measurements, the assessment results...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shogo Takahara, Masashi Iijima, Minoru Yoneda, Yoko Shimada Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Preference Functions for Spatial Risk Analysis
Abstract When outcomes are defined over a geographic region, measures of spatial risk regarding these outcomes can be more complex than traditional measures of risk. One of the main challenges is the need for a cardinal preference function that incorporates the spatial nature of the outcomes. We explore preference conditions that will yield the existence of spatial measurable value and utility functions, and discuss their application to spatial risk analysis. We also present a simple example on household freshwater usage across regions to demonstrate how such functions can be assessed and applied. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: L. Robin Keller, Jay Simon Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Deep Uncertainties in Sea ‐Level Rise and Storm Surge Projections: Implications for Coastal Flood Risk Management
Sea levels are rising in many areas around the world, posing risks to coastal communities and infrastructures. Strategies for managing these flood risks present decision challenges that require a combination of geophysical, economic, and infrastructure models. Previous studies have broken important new ground on the considerable tensions between the costs of upgrading infrastructure and the damages that could result from extreme flood events. However, many risk‐based adaptation strategies remain silent on certain potentially important uncertainties, as well as the tradeoffs between competing objectives. Here, we implemen...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Perry C. Oddo, Ben S. Lee, Gregory G. Garner, Vivek Srikrishnan, Patrick M. Reed, Chris E. Forest, Klaus Keller Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Ambient Asbestos Fiber Concentrations and Long ‐Term Trends in Pleural Mesothelioma Incidence between Urban and Rural Areas in the United States (1973–2012)
Over the past 40 years, measured ambient asbestos concentrations in the United States have been higher in urban versus rural areas. The purpose of this study was to determine whether variations in ambient asbestos concentrations have influenced pleural mesothelioma risk in females (who generally lacked historic occupational asbestos exposure relative to males). Male pleural mesothelioma incidence trends were analyzed to provide perspective for female trends. Annual age‐adjusted incidence rates from 1973 to 2012 were obtained from the SEER 9, 13, and 18 databases for urban and rural locations, and standardized rate ratios...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Meghan E. Glynn, Kara A. Keeton, Shannon H. Gaffney, Jennifer Sahmel Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimal Mission Abort Policy for Systems Operating in a Random Environment
Many real‐world critical systems, e.g., aircrafts, manned space flight systems, and submarines, utilize mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a rescue or recovery procedure is then initiated. For systems exposed to external impacts, the malfunctions are often caused by the consequences of these impacts. Traditional system reliability models typically cannot address a possibility of mission aborts. Therefore, in this article, we first develop the corresponding methodology for modeling and evaluation of the mission success proba...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Impact of Cooking Procedures and Storage Practices at Home on Consumer Exposure to Listeria Monocytogenes and Salmonella Due to the Consumption of Pork Meat
The objective of this research was to analyze the impact of different cooking procedures (i.e., gas hob and traditional static oven) and levels of cooking (i.e., rare, medium, and well‐done) on inactivation of Listeria monocytogenes and Salmonella in pork loin chops. Moreover, the consumer's exposure to both microorganisms after simulation of meat leftover storage at home was assessed. The results showed that well‐done cooking in a static oven was the only treatment able to inactivate the tested pathogens. The other cooking combinations allowed to reach in the product temperatures always ≥73.6 °C, decreasing bot...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alessandra Cesare, Eva Dom énech, Damiano Comin, Adele Meluzzi, Gerardo Manfreda Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Informing Ex Ante Event Studies with Macro ‐Econometric Evidence on the Structural and Policy Impacts of Terrorism
This article explores a new method. We elucidate the magnitude of CGE‐relevant structural shifts implicit in econometric evidence on terrorist incidents, with a view to informing future ex ante event assessments. Ex post econometric studies of terrorism by Blomberg et al. yield macro econometric equations that describe the response of observable economic variables (e.g., GDP growth) to terrorist incidents. We use these equations to determine estimates for relevant (unobservable) structural and policy variables impacted by terrorist incidents, using a CGE model of the United States. This allows us to: (i) compare val...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jason Nassios, James A. Giesecke Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Risk Analysis Approach to Prioritizing Epidemics: Ebola Virus Disease in West Africa as a Case Study
The 2014 Ebola virus disease (EVD) outbreak affected several countries worldwide, including six West African countries. It was the largest Ebola epidemic in the history and the first to affect multiple countries simultaneously. Significant national and international delay in response to the epidemic resulted in 28,652 cases and 11,325 deaths. The aim of this study was to develop a risk analysis framework to prioritize rapid response for situations of high risk. Based on findings from the literature, sociodemographic features of the affected countries, and documented epidemic data, a risk scoring framework using 18 criteria...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Whenayon Simeon Ajisegiri, Abrar Ahmad Chughtai, C. Raina MacIntyre Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

A Probabilistic Framework for Risk Analysis of Widespread Flood Events: A Proof ‐of‐Concept Study
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Scenario Building and Sensitivity Analyses for Decision Support: A Response to D. Warner North
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Patrick Ilg, Silke Gabbert, Hans ‐Peter Weikard Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Commentary on Cost –Benefit Analysis Article for Nuclear Waste Management
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: D. Warner North Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 27, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions,  Brian Christian and Tom Griffith. 2016. Picador: New York, NY Reviewed
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Special Note
Article: Risk Analysis 2016; 36: 1708–1717 (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Special Series Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 18, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Community ‐Driven Hypothesis Testing: A Solution for the Tragedy of the Anticommons
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 620-634, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Who Would Be Willing to Accept Disaster Debris in Their Backyard? Investigating the Determinants of Public Attitudes in Post ‐Fukushima Japan
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 535-547, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Annual Burden of Occupationally ‐Acquired Influenza Infections in Hospitals and Emergency Departments in the United States
Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 442-453, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 620-634, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 535-547, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis,Volume 38, Issue 3, Page 442-453, March 2018. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Annual Burden of Occupationally ‐Acquired Influenza Infections in Hospitals and Emergency Departments in the United States
The objective of this study is to determine the annual number of influenza infections acquired by HCP as a result of occupational exposures to influenza patients in hospitals and emergency departments (EDs) in the United States. A risk analysis approach was taken. A compartmental model was used to estimate the influenza dose received in a single exposure, and a dose–response function applied to calculate the probability of infection. A three‐step algorithm tabulated the total number of influenza infections based on: the total number of occupational exposures (tabulated in previous work), the total number of HCP wit...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rachael M. Jones, Yulin Xia Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Expert Elicitation of the Proliferation Resistance of Using Small Modular Reactors (SMR) for the Expansion of Civilian Nuclear Systems
To facilitate the use of nuclear energy globally, small modular reactors (SMRs) may represent a viable alternative or complement to large reactor designs. One potential benefit is that SMRs could allow for more proliferation resistant designs, manufacturing arrangements, and fuel‐cycle practices at widespread deployment. However, there is limited work evaluating the proliferation resistance of SMRs, and existing proliferation assessment approaches are not well suited for these novel arrangements. Here, we conduct an expert elicitation of the relative proliferation resistance of scenarios for future nuclear energy deploym...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 11, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jonas Siegel, Elisabeth A. Gilmore, Nancy Gallagher, Steve Fetter Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research