Understanding the regulator –regulatee relationship for developing safety culture
AbstractRegulatory authorities in safety-critical industries typically seek to influence the safety culture of the organizations they oversee. However, we know little about how regulatory authorities achieve this influence (e.g., what roles are adopted, relationship characteristics) and, more generally, about how external actors shape an organization's safety culture. Using a qualitative design in the nuclear industry, we developed our conceptual and empirical understanding of the roles through which a regulator influences the safety culture of their regulated organizations and what characteristics within the regulator –...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 6, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sara Willis,
David Holman,
Sharon Clarke,
Angelique Hartwig Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Power outage prediction using data streams: An adaptive ensemble learning approach with a feature ‐ and performance‐based weighting mechanism
AbstractA wide variety of weather conditions, from windstorms to prolonged heat events, can substantially impact power systems, posing many risks and inconveniences due to power outages. Accurately estimating the probability distribution of the number of customers without power using data about the power utility system and environmental and weather conditions can help utilities restore power more quickly and efficiently. However, the critical shortcoming of current models lies in the difficulties of handling (i) data streams and (ii) model uncertainty due to combining data from various weather events. Accordingly, this art...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 5, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Elnaz Kabir,
Seth D. Guikema,
Steven M. Quiring Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
The resilience of the pork supply chain to a food safety outbreak: The case of dioxins
This study developed a stochastic simulation model to evaluate the resilience of the Dutch pork supply chain to dioxin contamination in the feed. The resilience of the supply chain as well as the potential costs associated with the contamination are compared between several monitoring strategies with the aim to determine the optimal control points for dioxin monitoring. Model results show that collecting and analyzing samples at more than one control point along the pork supply chain, in particular at feed mills and fat melting facilities, resulted in the highest resilience and the lowest costs after a shock. This model an...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 4, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marlous Focker,
Coen Wagenberg,
Esther Asselt,
H. J. Fels ‐Klerx Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
The foundations of influencing policy and practice: How risk science discourse shaped government action during COVID ‐19
AbstractCOVID-19 demonstrated the complex manner in which discourses from risk science are manipulated to legitimize government action. We use Foucault's theory of Governmentality to explore how a risk science discourse shaped national and local government action during COVID-19. We theorize how national government policymakers and local government risk managers were objectified by (and subjectified themselves to) risk science models, results, and discourses. From this theoretical position we analyze a dataset, including observations of risk science discourse and 22 qualitative interviews, to understand the challenges that...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 3, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Duncan Shaw,
Judy Scully Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Trust and subjective knowledge influence perceived risk of lead exposure
AbstractLead exposure is a persistent environmental hazard that poses risks to human health. But motivating protective action is challenging with this low visibility hazard whose health effects are often subtle and chronic. Higher risk perception is generally associated with taking protective measures, so public health efforts prioritize risk messaging. Yet, little is known about perceptions of lead exposure risk among the U.S. public. Using cross-sectional data from a national survey of 1035 U.S. residents, we measured the role of trust in government management of lead and subjective knowledge about lead as predictors of ...
Source: Risk Analysis - September 2, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Madeline Goebel,
Chloe B. Wardropper Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Estimating the health burden of foodborne gastroenteritis caused by non ‐typhoidal Salmonella enterica and Vibrio parahaemolyticus in Zhejiang province, China
AbstractAs acute gastrointestinal (AGI) disease patients only sometimes seek medical care or submit stool samples for testing, and laboratories cannot detect or identify the pathogen, most cases of foodborne gastroenteritis still need to be identified through public health monitoring. We conducted a population survey and sentinel hospital surveillance to determine the burden of foodborne gastroenteritis caused by non-typhoidalSalmonella enterica (NTS) andVibrio parahaemolyticus infection, from July 2018 to June 2019 in Zhejiang province, China, and a model for calculating disease burden established. Using the burden of ill...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 31, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jiang Chen,
Xialidan Alifu,
Xiaojuan Qi,
Ronghua Zhang,
Lili Chen,
Jikai Wang,
Yunxian Yu Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Machine learning and user interface for cyber risk management of water infrastructure
This article signifies the importance of developing improved techniques to support cyber risk management for critical water infrastructure, given an evolving threat environment. In particular, we propose a method that uniquely combines machine learning, the theory of belief functions, operational performance metrics, and dynamic visualization to provide the required granularity for attack inference, localization, and impact estimation. We illustrate how the focus on visual domain-aware anomaly exploration leads to performance improvement, more precise anomaly localization, and effective risk prioritization. Proposed elemen...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 28, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Nataliia Neshenko,
Elias Bou ‐Harb,
Borko Furht,
Ravi Behara Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Quantifying the risk of mass shootings at specific locations
This article proposes a novel hierarchical method to assess the probability of a mass shooting at specific locations based on available historical data. First, the method generates a probability distribution over the annual number of mass shootings in the United States. Second, the article uses this national number of mass shootings to determine the risk for each state. Third, the state risk assessment is decomposed to calculate the probability of a mass shooting in a specific location such as a school. Multiple ways to assess the risk are presented, leading to slightly different probability assessments for a location. Res...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 23, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Xue Lei,
Cameron MacKenzie Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Analytic and heuristic process for prudent antimicrobial use in animals: What are triggers and how do they work?
AbstractThe over and misuse of antimicrobials in animal agriculture causes a prevailing crisis for humans, animals, and the environment. From the One Health approach perspective, the formation process of adopting prudent antimicrobial use (AMU), once established, can be used to mitigate this crisis. The study aimed to determine the analytic-based and heuristic-based process that evoked prudent AMU among animal farmers by synthesis of stimulus-organism-response framework and dual-system theory and to explore gender differences on risk –benefit trade-offs. A structural equation model was employed to test the proposed hypot...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 22, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Mingliang Wang,
Shunlong Gong,
Li Bai,
Luyu Liang,
Zhenlin Weng,
Jin Tang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A methodology to estimate postdisaster unmet housing needs using limited data: Application to the 2017 California wildfires
This article presents a methodology to estimate postdisaster unmet housing needs that is accurate and relies only on data obtained shortly after a disaster. Data on the number of damaged buildings are combined with models for expected repair costs. Statistical models for aid distributed by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and the Small Business Administration (SBA) are then developed and used to forecast funding provided by those agencies. With these forecasts, the unmet need to be funded by HUD is estimated. The approach can be used for multiple states and hazard types. As validation, the proposed methodolog...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rodrigo Costa,
Jack W. Baker Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Quantitative risk assessment of China's first liquid hydrogen refueling station
This article presents a quantitative risk assessment of the first liquid HRS (LHRS) in China and conducts a comprehensive assessment in terms of both individual (IR) and societal risks (SRs). The results showed that both the IRs and SRs related to the LHRS exceeded the risk acceptance criteria. The rupture of the flexible hose of the dispenser and the leak from the compressor are the main contributors to these risks. On the other hand, implementing appropriate mitigation measures on the level of the LHRS dispenser and compressor, including the addition of breakaway couplings in the flexible hose of the dispenser, the insta...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 13, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wenhao Yuan,
Jingfeng Li,
Rong Yangyiming,
Jianbin Peng,
Junlong Xie,
Jianye Chen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - August 11, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Evacuate or social distance? Modeling the influence of threat perceptions on hurricane evacuation in a dual ‐threat environment
This study investigates how different risk predictors influenced households ’ evacuation decisions during a dual-threat event (Hurricane Laura and COVID-19 pandemic). The Protective Action Decision Model (PADM) literature indicates that perceived threat variables are the most influential variables that drive evacuation decisions. This study applies the PADM to investigate a dual-threat disaster that has conflicting protective action recommendations. Given the novelty, scale, span, impact, and messaging around COVID-19, it is crucial to see how hurricanes along the Gulf Coast—a hazard addressed seasonally by residents w...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 8, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Hao ‐Che Wu,
Haley Murphy,
Alex Greer,
Lauren Clay Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A data ‐driven method for identifying the locations of hurricane evacuations from mobile phone location data
AbstractHow evacuations are managed can substantially impact the risks faced by affected communities. Having a better understanding of the mobility patterns of evacuees can improve the planning and management of these evacuations. Although mobility patterns during evacuations have traditionally been studied through surveys, mobile phone location data can be used to capture these movements for a greater number of evacuees over a larger geographic area. Several approaches have been used to identify hurricane evacuation patterns from location data; however, each approach relies on researcher judgment to first determine the ar...
Source: Risk Analysis - August 7, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Valerie Washington,
Seth Guikema,
Joi ‐Lynn Mondisa,
Aditi Misra Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Using mobile phone data to evaluate access to essential services following natural hazards
AbstractNatural hazards bring about changes in the access to essential services such as grocery stores, healthcare, schools, and day care because of facility closures, transportation system disruption, evacuation orders, power outages, and other barriers to access. Understanding changes in access to essential services following a disruption is critical to ensure equitable recovery and more resilient communities. However, past approaches to understanding facility closures and inaccessibility such as surveys and interviews are labor-intensive and of limited geographic scope. In this article, we develop an approach to underst...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 30, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tessa Swanson,
Seth Guikema Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
