Healthcare Professionals Risk Assessments for Alert Overrides in High ‐Risk IV Infusions Using Simulated Scenarios
This study aimed to use healthcare professionals ’ assessments to calculate expected risk of intravenous (IV) infusion harm for simulated high‐risk medications that exceed soft limits and to investigate the impact of relevant risk factors. We designed 30 infusion scenarios for four high‐risk medications, propofol, morphine, insulin, and hepa rin, infused in adult intensive care unit (AICU) and adult medical and surgical care unit (AMSU). A total of 20 pharmacists and 5 nurses provided their assessed expected risk of harm in each scenario. Descriptive statistics, analysis of variance with least square mean, and po...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Wan ‐Ting K. Su, Mark R. Lehto, Dan D. Degnan, Yuehwern Yih, Vincent G. Duffy, Poching DeLaurentis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluating Lightning ‐Caused Fire Occurrence Using Spatial Generalized Additive Models: A Case Study in Central Spain
In this study, we analyze the effects of different biophysical variables and lightning characteristics on lightning ‐caused forest wildfires in Castilla y León region (Central Spain). The presence/absence of at least one lightning‐caused fire in any 4 × 4‐km grid cell was used as a dependent variable and vegetation type and structure, terrain, climate, and lightning characteristics were used as possib le covariates. Five prediction methods were compared: a generalized linear model (GLM), a random forest model (RFM), a generalized additive model (GAM), a GAM that includes a spatial tre...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jos é Ramón Rodríguez‐Pérez, Celestino Ordóñez, Javier Roca‐Pardiñas, Daniel Vecín‐Arias, Fernando Castedo‐Dorado Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Attacker –defender Resource Allocation Game with Substitution and Complementary Effects
This article provides some new insights to the homeland security resource allocation. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ridwan Al Aziz, Meilin He, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Big Data and Predictive Analytics in Fire Risk Using Weather Data
This article provides useful insights to fire managers and researchers in the form of a detailed framework of big data and predictive analytics for effective management of fire  risk. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Puneet Agarwal, Junlin Tang, Adithya Narayanan Lakshmi Narayanan, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Identifying Promising Messages to Increase Hurricane Mitigation Among Coastal Homeowners in the United States
We present results from mixed‐methods, t heory‐driven research to identify promising beliefs for persuading homeowners in coastal/coastal‐adjacent regions of Alabama and Florida to install a high wind–resistant (HWR) roof. In Study 1, we elicited homeowners’ (n = 74) salient behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about installing an HWR roof. Using established procedures, we content analyzed open ‐ended responses and categorized them by thematic content. In Study 2, we surveyed another sample of homeowners (n = 533) to examine the extent to which salient beliefs/themes about installing an HWR roof (...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Elissa C. Kranzler, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Lin Jia Chen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix ‐Based Simulation Approach
AbstractMajor industrial accidents occurring at so ‐called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlation s exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino ac...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Interindividual Variation in Source ‐Specific Doses is a Determinant of Health Impacts of Combined Chemical Exposures
AbstractAll individuals are exposed to multiple chemicals from multiple sources. These combined exposures are a concern because they may cause adverse effects that would not occur from an exposure recieved from any single source. Studies of combined chemical exposures, however, have found that the risks posed by such combined exposures are almost always driven by exposures from a few chemicals and sources and frequently by a single chemical from a single source. Here, a series of computer simulations of combined exposures are used to investigate when multiple sources of chemicals drive the largest risks in a population and...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Paul Price Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Analysis of Domino Effects by Using a Matrix ‐Based Simulation Approach
AbstractMajor industrial accidents occurring at so ‐called major hazard installations may cause domino accidents which are among the most destructive industrial accidents existing at present. As there may be many hazard installations in an area, a primary accident scenario may potentially propagate from one installation to another, and correlation s exist in probability calculations of domino effects. In addition, during the propagation of a domino effect, accidents of diverse types may occur, some of them having a synergistic effect, while others do not. These characteristics make the analytical formulation of domino ac...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jianfeng Zhou, Genserik Reniers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Identifying Promising Messages to Increase Hurricane Mitigation Among Coastal Homeowners in the United States
We present results from mixed‐methods, t heory‐driven research to identify promising beliefs for persuading homeowners in coastal/coastal‐adjacent regions of Alabama and Florida to install a high wind–resistant (HWR) roof. In Study 1, we elicited homeowners’ (n = 74) salient behavioral, normative, and control beliefs about installing an HWR roof. Using established procedures, we content analyzed open ‐ended responses and categorized them by thematic content. In Study 2, we surveyed another sample of homeowners (n = 533) to examine the extent to which salient beliefs/themes about installing an HWR roof (...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Elissa C. Kranzler, Jeffrey Czajkowski, Lin Jia Chen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 7, July 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 40, Issue 7, Page 1321-1322, July 2020. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 14, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

Theory of Systemic Risks: Insights from Physics and Chemistry
AbstractSystemic risks, as opposed to conventional risks, bear the danger of destroying entire systems. Their understanding and governance remain a serious challenge. The phenomena of systemic risks show many analogies with those of dynamic structure generation in the systems of nature, technology, and society, including simple model systems of physics and chemistry. By analyzing these model systems, the elementary processes and the generic mechanisms by which they generate macroscopic dynamic structures become evident. Generalizing these insights makes it possible to formulate the basic framework of a theory of systemic r...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 12, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Klaus Lucas Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Altruistic and Private Values For Saving Lives With an Oyster Consumption Safety Program
We present the scope test as a difference in the number of lives saved by the program, instead of small changes in risk, and find that referendum votes a re responsive to scope. A third feature of this article is that we identify those at‐risk respondents who would most benefit from the policy and decompose willingness‐to‐pay into use values and altruistic nonuse values. We find that willingness‐to‐pay per life saved ranges from $3.95 milli on to $7.69 million for the private good of lives saved when the respondent is at risk (i.e., use values). Willingness‐to‐pay per life saved including both use and altruis...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C. Whitehead, O. Ashton Morgan, William L. Huth, Gregory S. Martin, Richard Sjolander Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components
This article makes contributions by modeling standby systems subject to MAPs that depend not only on the number of failed online components but also on the number of available standby components remaining. Further, dynamic MAPs considering another additional factor, the time elapsed from the mission beginning in the event of the mission abort decision making, are investigated. The solution methodology encompasses an event ‐transition based numerical algorithm for evaluating the mission success probability and system survival probability of standby systems subject to the considered MAPs. Examples are provided to demonstra...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Liudong Xing, Yuanshun Dai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Altruistic and Private Values For Saving Lives With an Oyster Consumption Safety Program
We present the scope test as a difference in the number of lives saved by the program, instead of small changes in risk, and find that referendum votes a re responsive to scope. A third feature of this article is that we identify those at‐risk respondents who would most benefit from the policy and decompose willingness‐to‐pay into use values and altruistic nonuse values. We find that willingness‐to‐pay per life saved ranges from $3.95 milli on to $7.69 million for the private good of lives saved when the respondent is at risk (i.e., use values). Willingness‐to‐pay per life saved including both use and altruis...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C. Whitehead, O. Ashton Morgan, William L. Huth, Gregory S. Martin, Richard Sjolander Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components
This article makes contributions by modeling standby systems subject to MAPs that depend not only on the number of failed online components but also on the number of available standby components remaining. Further, dynamic MAPs considering another additional factor, the time elapsed from the mission beginning in the event of the mission abort decision making, are investigated. The solution methodology encompasses an event ‐transition based numerical algorithm for evaluating the mission success probability and system survival probability of standby systems subject to the considered MAPs. Examples are provided to demonstra...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Liudong Xing, Yuanshun Dai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Altruistic and Private Values For Saving Lives With an Oyster Consumption Safety Program
We present the scope test as a difference in the number of lives saved by the program, instead of small changes in risk, and find that referendum votes a re responsive to scope. A third feature of this article is that we identify those at‐risk respondents who would most benefit from the policy and decompose willingness‐to‐pay into use values and altruistic nonuse values. We find that willingness‐to‐pay per life saved ranges from $3.95 milli on to $7.69 million for the private good of lives saved when the respondent is at risk (i.e., use values). Willingness‐to‐pay per life saved including both use and altruis...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: John C. Whitehead, O. Ashton Morgan, William L. Huth, Gregory S. Martin, Richard Sjolander Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mission Abort Policy for Systems with Observable States of Standby Components
This article makes contributions by modeling standby systems subject to MAPs that depend not only on the number of failed online components but also on the number of available standby components remaining. Further, dynamic MAPs considering another additional factor, the time elapsed from the mission beginning in the event of the mission abort decision making, are investigated. The solution methodology encompasses an event ‐transition based numerical algorithm for evaluating the mission success probability and system survival probability of standby systems subject to the considered MAPs. Examples are provided to demonstra...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 10, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Liudong Xing, Yuanshun Dai Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Potential Future Use, Costs, and Value of Poliovirus Vaccines
AbstractCountries face different poliovirus risks, which imply different benefits associated with continued and future use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and/or inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). With the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) continuing to extend its timeline for ending the transmission of all wild polioviruses and to introduce new poliovirus vaccines, the polio vaccine supply chain continues to expand in complexity. The increased complexity leads to significant uncertainty about supply and costs. Notably, the strategy of phased OPV cessation of all three serotypes to stop all future incidence of...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 8, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson, Dominika A. Kalkowska Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples
This article aims to demonstrate thatrisk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about —its foundation and main features—and how it is used to gain knowledge and improve communication and decision making in real‐life situations. The article seeks to meet this challenge, by presenting three examples, showing how risk science works to gain new generic, fundamental knowledge on ris k concepts, principles, and methods, as well as supporting the practical tackling of actual risk problems. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data
This study develops dose –response models forEbolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolizedEbolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta ‐Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta‐Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more cl...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jade Mitchell, Kara Dean, Charles Haas Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples
This article aims to demonstrate thatrisk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about —its foundation and main features—and how it is used to gain knowledge and improve communication and decision making in real‐life situations. The article seeks to meet this challenge, by presenting three examples, showing how risk science works to gain new generic, fundamental knowledge on ris k concepts, principles, and methods, as well as supporting the practical tackling of actual risk problems. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data
This study develops dose –response models forEbolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolizedEbolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta ‐Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta‐Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more cl...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jade Mitchell, Kara Dean, Charles Haas Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Science Contributions: Three Illustrating Examples
This article aims to demonstrate thatrisk science is important for society, industry and all of us. Rather few people today, including scientists and managers, are familiar with what this science is about —its foundation and main features—and how it is used to gain knowledge and improve communication and decision making in real‐life situations. The article seeks to meet this challenge, by presenting three examples, showing how risk science works to gain new generic, fundamental knowledge on ris k concepts, principles, and methods, as well as supporting the practical tackling of actual risk problems. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Terje Aven Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Ebola Virus Dose Response Model for Aerosolized Exposures: Insights from Primate Data
This study develops dose –response models forEbolavirus using previously published data sets from the open literature. Two such articles were identified in which three different species of nonhuman primates were challenged by aerosolizedEbolavirus in order to study pathology and clinical disease progression. Dose groups were combined and pooled across each study in order to facilitate modeling. The endpoint of each experiment was death. The exponential and exact beta ‐Poisson models were fit to the data using maximum likelihood estimation. The exact beta‐Poisson was deemed the recommended model because it more cl...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 6, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jade Mitchell, Kara Dean, Charles Haas Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non ‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis
This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911 –2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non‐OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is u sed to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteri...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Updated Characterization of Post ‐OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart
AbstractAfter the globally coordinated cessation of any serotype of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), some risks remain from undetected, existing homotypic OPV ‐related transmission and/or restarting transmission due to several possible reintroduction risks. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of serotype 2‐containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016. Following OPV2 cessation, the GPEI and countries implemented activities to w ithdraw all the remaining trivalent OPV, which contains all three poliovirus serotypes (i.e., 1, 2, and 3), from the supply chain and replace it with bivalent OPV (containi...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Mark A. Pallansch, Stephen L. Cochi, Stephanie D. Kovacs, Steven G. F. Wassilak, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Simple Toxicokinetic Model Exhibiting Complex Dynamics and Nonlinear Exposure Response
AbstractUncertainty in model predictions of exposure response at low exposures is a problem for risk assessment. A particular interest is the internal concentration of an agent in biological systems as a function of external exposure concentrations. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models permit estimation of internal exposure concentrations in target tissues but most assume that model parameters are either fixed or instantaneously dose ‐dependent. Taking into account response times for biological regulatory mechanisms introduces new dynamic behaviors that have implications for low‐dose exposure response in...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert M. Park Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Updated Characterization of Post ‐OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart
AbstractAfter the globally coordinated cessation of any serotype of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), some risks remain from undetected, existing homotypic OPV ‐related transmission and/or restarting transmission due to several possible reintroduction risks. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of serotype 2‐containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016. Following OPV2 cessation, the GPEI and countries implemented activities to w ithdraw all the remaining trivalent OPV, which contains all three poliovirus serotypes (i.e., 1, 2, and 3), from the supply chain and replace it with bivalent OPV (containi...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Mark A. Pallansch, Stephen L. Cochi, Stephanie D. Kovacs, Steven G. F. Wassilak, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non ‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis
This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911 –2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non‐OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is u sed to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteri...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Simple Toxicokinetic Model Exhibiting Complex Dynamics and Nonlinear Exposure Response
AbstractUncertainty in model predictions of exposure response at low exposures is a problem for risk assessment. A particular interest is the internal concentration of an agent in biological systems as a function of external exposure concentrations. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models permit estimation of internal exposure concentrations in target tissues but most assume that model parameters are either fixed or instantaneously dose ‐dependent. Taking into account response times for biological regulatory mechanisms introduces new dynamic behaviors that have implications for low‐dose exposure response in...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert M. Park Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Updated Characterization of Post ‐OPV Cessation Risks: Lessons from 2019 Serotype 2 Outbreaks and Implications for the Probability of OPV Restart
AbstractAfter the globally coordinated cessation of any serotype of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), some risks remain from undetected, existing homotypic OPV ‐related transmission and/or restarting transmission due to several possible reintroduction risks. The Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) coordinated global cessation of serotype 2‐containing OPV (OPV2) in 2016. Following OPV2 cessation, the GPEI and countries implemented activities to w ithdraw all the remaining trivalent OPV, which contains all three poliovirus serotypes (i.e., 1, 2, and 3), from the supply chain and replace it with bivalent OPV (containi...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dominika A. Kalkowska, Mark A. Pallansch, Stephen L. Cochi, Stephanie D. Kovacs, Steven G. F. Wassilak, Kimberly M. Thompson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Probabilistic Analysis of Dam Accidents Worldwide: Risk Assessment for Dams of Different Purposes in OECD and Non ‐OECD Countries with Focus on Time Trend Analysis
This study presents probabilistic analysis of dam accidents worldwide in the period 1911 –2016. The accidents are classified by the dam purpose and by the country cluster, where they occurred, distinguishing between the countries of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) and nonmember countries (non‐OECD without China). A Bayesian hierarchical approach is u sed to model distributions of frequency and severity for accidents. This approach treats accident data as a multilevel system with subsets sharing specific characteristics. To model accident probabilities for a particular dam characteri...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anna Kalinina, Matteo Spada, Peter Burgherr Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Simple Toxicokinetic Model Exhibiting Complex Dynamics and Nonlinear Exposure Response
AbstractUncertainty in model predictions of exposure response at low exposures is a problem for risk assessment. A particular interest is the internal concentration of an agent in biological systems as a function of external exposure concentrations. Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) models permit estimation of internal exposure concentrations in target tissues but most assume that model parameters are either fixed or instantaneously dose ‐dependent. Taking into account response times for biological regulatory mechanisms introduces new dynamic behaviors that have implications for low‐dose exposure response in...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Robert M. Park Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Using Panel Data to Understand the Dynamics of Human Behavior in Response to Flooding
AbstractInsights into the dynamics of human behavior in response to flooding are urgently needed for the development of effective integrated flood risk management strategies, and for integrating human behavior in flood risk modeling. However, our understanding of the dynamics of risk perceptions, attitudes, individual recovery processes, as well as adaptive (i.e., risk reducing) intention and behavior are currently limited because of the predominant use of cross ‐sectional surveys in the flood risk domain. Here, we present the results from one of the first panel surveys in the flood risk domain covering a relatively long...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 2, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Philip Bubeck, Lisa Bergh äuser, Paul Hudson, Annegret H. Thieken Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Individual Disaster Assistance For Socially Vulnerable People: Lessons Learned From the Pohang Earthquake in the Republic of Korea
This study identifies whether the government disaster assistance was fairly distributed to socially vulnerable victims using a statistical model based on the data from the Pohang earthquake that occurred in 2017 in Korea. A conceptual model was constructed using a structural equation model (SEM) of three factors —social vulnerability, physical vulnerability, and the amount paid out in individual disaster assistance. Furthermore, interviews with and a survey of the victims were conducted to verify the problems identified by the conceptual model. This study found that socially vulnerable victims were less l ikely to ta...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 1, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seunghoo Jeong, Byeong Je Kim, Young ‐Joo Lee, Ji‐Bum Chung, Sung‐Han Sim Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimating Listeria monocytogenes Growth in Ready ‐to‐Eat Chicken Salad Using a Challenge Test for Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment
AbstractCurrently, there is a growing preference for convenience food products, such as ready ‐to‐eat (RTE) foods, associated with long refrigerated shelf‐lives, not requiring a heat treatment prior to consumption. BecauseListeria monocytogenes is able to grow at refrigeration temperatures, inconsistent temperatures during production, distribution, and at consumer's household may allow for the pathogen to thrive, reaching unsafe limits.L. monocytogenes is the causative agent of listeriosis, a rare but severe human illness, with high fatality rates, transmitted almost exclusively by food consumption. With the aim of a...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 30, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Rita Bernardo, Ant ónio Salvador Barreto, Telmo Nunes, Ana Rita Henriques Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Risk Assessment: Developing a Bayesian Approach to Dichotomous Dose –Response Uncertainty
This article introduces a novel approach that addresses many of the challenges seen while providing a fully Bayesian framework. Furthermore, in contrast to methods that use Monte Carlo Markov Chain, we approximate the posterior density using maximuma posteriori estimation. The approximation allows for an accurate and reproducible estimate while maintaining the speed of maximum likelihood, which is crucial in many applications such as processing massive high throughput data sets. We assess this method by applying it to empirical laboratory dose –response data and measuring the coverage of confidence limits for the BMD...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, Todd Blessinger, Kan Shao, Bruce C. Allen, Louis Olszyk, J. Allen Davis, Jeffrey S Gift Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

All The Same? On a Certain Pattern in Cross ‐National Death Risk
This article considers whether a nation that fares relatively well (or badly) on a particular dimension of mortality risk tends also to do so on others. Working with 2016 data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, we focus on six causes of premature death: transport accidents, other accidents, homicide, early ‐childhood diseases, and both communicable and noncommunicable diseases beyond early childhood. We consider data from all 26 nations that had populations of at least 50 million in 2016, as well as 15 clusters of smaller nations that are similar in longevity (e.g., Scandinavia). We use an analytic method tha...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Arnold Barnett Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Risk Assessment: Developing a Bayesian Approach to Dichotomous Dose –Response Uncertainty
This article introduces a novel approach that addresses many of the challenges seen while providing a fully Bayesian framework. Furthermore, in contrast to methods that use Monte Carlo Markov Chain, we approximate the posterior density using maximuma posteriori estimation. The approximation allows for an accurate and reproducible estimate while maintaining the speed of maximum likelihood, which is crucial in many applications such as processing massive high throughput data sets. We assess this method by applying it to empirical laboratory dose –response data and measuring the coverage of confidence limits for the BMD...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2020 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Matthew W. Wheeler, Todd Blessinger, Kan Shao, Bruce C. Allen, Louis Olszyk, J. Allen Davis, Jeffrey S Gift Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research