A Proposal for Integrating Theories of Complexity for Better Understanding Global Systemic Risks
AbstractThe global financial crisis of 2008 has shown that the present financial system involves global systemic risks. The dimension of these risks is hard to grasp with the conceptual tools that have been developed to tackle conventional risks like fire or car accidents. While modern societies know quite well how to deal with conventional risks, we have not yet been equally successful at dealing with global systemic risks. For managing this kind of risks, one needs to understand critical features of specific global systems where many human agents interact in ever changing complex networks. Here we apply two specific dime...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 17, 2022 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Armin Haas, Manfred Laubichler, Joffa Applegate, Gesine Steudle, Carlo C. Jaeger Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Volatility as a Transmitter of Systemic Risk: Is there a Structural Risk in Finance?
This article discusses the role of volatility in the context of systemic risk in finance. The main argument is that volatility transmits risks within the financial system and beyond, shaking the financial system and threatening in particular small or vulnerable clients (SMEs, households, and also low- and middle-income countries). In addition, it is argued that volatility-induced threats result from structural characteristics of the financial markets themselves (reactivity, reflexivity, and recursivity). The article introduces the concept of volatility, and different approaches to understanding risks related to the financi...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 17, 2022 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Harald A. Mieg Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Precautionary Assessment of Systemic Projections and Promises From Sunlight Reflection and Carbon Removal Modeling
We describe how evolving modeling practices are trending toward optimized and “best-case”projections—portraying deployment schemes that create both technically slanted and politically sanitized profiles of risk, as well as ideal objectives for CDR and SRM as mitigation-enhancing, time-buying mechanisms for carbon transitions or vulnerable populations. Aspromises, stylized and hopeful projections may selectively reinforce industry and political activities built around the inertia of the carbon economy. Some evidence suggests this is the emerging case for certain kinds of CDR, where the prospect of future carbon captur...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 17, 2022 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sean Low, Matthias Honegger Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

What is wrong with the Mission Dependency Index for US federal infrastructure decisions?
We present a detailed technical analysis of MDI to show how its flaws impact infrastructure decisions. We present the MDI used by the US Navy and develop a critique of current methods. We identify six problems with MDI that stem from its interpretation, use, and mathematical formulation, and we provide examples demonstrating how these flaws can bias decisions. We provide recommendations to overcome flaws for infrastructure risk decision making but ultimately recommend the US government develop a new metric less susceptible to  bias. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - October 14, 2022 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel A. Eisenberg, Aaron B. Fish, David L. Alderson Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research

Media exposure, threat processing, and mitigation behaviors in Gulf Coast residents facing the co ‐occurring threats of COVID‐19 and hurricanes
AbstractThe 2020 hurricane season threatened millions of Americans concurrently grappling with COVID-19. Processes guiding individual-level mitigation for these conceptually distinct threats, one novel and chronic (COVID-19), the other familiar and episodic (hurricanes), are unknown. Theories of health protective behaviors suggest that inputs from external stimuli (e.g., traditional and social media) lead to threat processing, including perceived efficacy (self- and response) and perceived threat (susceptibility and severity), guiding mitigation behavior. We surveyed a representative sample of Florida and Texas residents (...
Source: Risk Analysis - October 11, 2022 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Dana Rose Garfin, Rebecca R. Thompson, Gabrielle Wong ‐Parodi Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research