Linear ‐No‐Threshold Default Assumptions are Unwarranted for Cytotoxic Endpoints Independently Triggered by Ultrasensitive Molecular Switches
Crump's response in this issue to my critique of linear‐no‐threshold (LNT) default assumptions for noncancer and nongenotoxic cancer risks (Risk Analysis 2016; 36(3):589–604) is rebutted herein. Crump maintains that distinguishing between a low‐dose linear dose response and a threshold dose response on the basis of dose–response data is impossible even for endpoints involving increased cytotoxicity. My rebuttal relies on descriptions and specific illustrations of two well‐characterized ultrasensitive molecular switches that govern two key cytoprotective responses to cellular stress—heat shock resp...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Kenneth T. Bogen Tags: Invited Commentary Source Type: research

Risk Modeling of Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems: Theory and Practice
This article presents a theoretical and analytical framework for modeling the risk to SoS with two case studies performed with the MITRE Corporation and demonstrates the pivotal contributions made by shared states and other essential entities to modeling and analysis of the risk to complex SoS. A third case study highlights the multifarious representations of SoS, which require harmonizing the risk analysis process currently applied to single systems when applied to complex SoS. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Yacov Y. Haimes Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Robustness Assessment of Urban Road Network with Consideration of Multiple Hazard Events
Robustness measures a system's ability of being insensitive to disturbances. Previous studies assessed the robustness of transportation networks to a single disturbance without considering simultaneously happening multiple events. The purpose of this article is to address this problem and propose a new framework to assess the robustness of an urban transportation network. The framework consists of two layers. The upper layer is to define the robustness index based on the impact evaluation in different scenarios obtained from the lower layer, whereas the lower layer is to evaluate the performance of each hypothetical disrup...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Yaoming Zhou, Jiuh ‐Biing Sheu, Junwei Wang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Three ‐Stage Decision‐Making Model under Restricted Conditions for Emergency Response to Ships Not under Control
A ship that is not under control (NUC) is a typical incident that poses serious problems when in confined waters close to shore. The emergency response to NUC ships is to select the best risk control options, which is a challenge in restricted conditions (e.g., time limitation, resource constraint, and information asymmetry), particularly in inland waterway transportation. To enable a quick and effective response, this article develops a three‐stage decision‐making framework for NUC ship handling. The core of this method is (1) to propose feasible options for each involved entity (e.g., maritime safety administration, ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Bing Wu, Xinping Yan, Yang Wang, Di Zhang, C. Guedes Soares Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Public Perception of Uncertainties Within Climate Change Science
Climate change is a complex, multifaceted problem involving various interacting systems and actors. Therefore, the intensities, locations, and timeframes of the consequences of climate change are hard to predict and cause uncertainties. Relatively little is known about how the public perceives this scientific uncertainty and how this relates to their concern about climate change. In this article, an online survey among 306 Swiss people is reported that investigated whether people differentiate between different types of uncertainty in climate change research. Also examined was the way in which the perception of uncertainty...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Vivianne H. M. Visschers Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Assessing the Likelihood and Magnitude of a Population Health Benefit Following the Market Introduction of a Modified ‐Risk Tobacco Product: Enhancements to the Dynamic Population Modeler, DPM(+1)
Researchers and those responsible for evaluating and implementing policies intended to reduce population harm must assess the potential for both intended and unintended consequences associated with those policies. Such assessments should be based on the combined dimensions of magnitude, and thus likelihood, of shifts in exposure patterns needed to produce a population benefit or harm, and magnitude of the expected population benefit or harm. In response to this assessment need, we provide a conceptual description of the dynamic population modeler, DPM(+1), as well as illustrative analyses that estimate the effects on all...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 24, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Annette M. Bachand, Sandra I. Sulsky, Geoffrey M. Curtin Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 18, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 18, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

The Precautionary Principle Has Not Been Shown to Be Incoherent: A Reply to Peterson
In this journal, I have objected to Peterson's 2006 claim that the precautionary principle is an incoherent decision rule. I defend my objections to Peterson's recent replies, and I still claim that the precautionary principle has not been shown to be incoherent. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Thomas Boyer ‐Kassem Tags: Response Source Type: research

Sociotechnical Resilience: A Preliminary Concept
This article presents the concept of sociotechnical resilience by employing an interdisciplinary perspective derived from the fields of science and technology studies, human factors, safety science, organizational studies, and systems engineering. Highlighting the hybrid nature of sociotechnical systems, we identify three main constituents that characterize sociotechnical resilience: informational relations, sociomaterial structures, and anticipatory practices. Further, we frame sociotechnical resilience as undergirded by the notion of transformability with an emphasis on intentional activities, focusing on the ability of ...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Sulfikar Amir, Vivek Kant Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

How to Design Rating Schemes of Risk Matrices: A Sequential Updating Approach
Risk matrices have been widely used as a risk evaluation tool in many fields due to their simplicity and intuitive nature. Designing a rating scheme, i.e., determining the number of ratings used in a risk matrix and assigning different ratings to different cells, is an essential part of risk matrix construction. However, most of the related literature has focused on applying a risk matrix to various fields, instead of researching how to design risk matrices. Based on the analysis of several current rules, we propose a new approach, namely, the sequential updating approach (SUA), to design the rating scheme of a risk matrix...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 12, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Jianping Li, Chunbing Bao, Dengsheng Wu Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Estimating the Probability of Human Error by Incorporating Component Failure Data from User ‐Induced Defects in the Development of Complex Electrical Systems
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

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Risk Analysis, Ahead of Print. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Source Type: research

Estimating the Probability of Human Error by Incorporating Component Failure Data from User ‐Induced Defects in the Development of Complex Electrical Systems
This article proposes a methodology for incorporating electrical component failure data into the human error assessment and reduction technique (HEART) for estimating human error probabilities (HEPs). The existing HEART method contains factors known as error‐producing conditions (EPCs) that adjust a generic HEP to a more specific situation being assessed. The selection and proportioning of these EPCs are at the discretion of an assessor, and are therefore subject to the assessor's experience and potential bias. This dependence on expert opinion is prevalent in similar HEP assessment techniques used in numerous industrial...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 5, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Peter J. Majewicz, Paul Blessner, Bill Olson, Timothy Blackburn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Reliability ‐Based Capability Approach
This article proposes a rigorous mathematical approach, named a reliability‐based capability approach (RCA), to quantify the societal impact of a hazard. The starting point of the RCA is a capability approach in which capabilities refer to the genuine opportunities open to individuals to achieve valuable doings and beings (such as being mobile and being sheltered) called functionings. Capabilities depend on what individuals have and what they can do with what they have. The article develops probabilistic predictive models that relate the value of each functioning to a set of easily predictable or measurable quantities (r...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Armin Tabandeh, Paolo Gardoni, Colleen Murphy Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Public Understanding of Ebola Risks: Mastering an Unfamiliar Threat
Ebola was the most widely followed news story in the United States in October 2014. Here, we ask what members of the U.S. public learned about the disease, given the often chaotic media environment. Early in 2015, we surveyed a representative sample of 3,447 U.S. residents about their Ebola‐related beliefs, attitudes, and behaviors. Where possible, we elicited judgments in terms sufficiently precise to allow comparing them to scientific estimates (e.g., the death toll to date and the probability of dying once ill). Respondents’ judgments were generally consistent with one another, with scientific knowledge, and wit...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Baruch Fischhoff, Gabrielle Wong ‐Parodi, Dana Rose Garfin, E. Alison Holman, Roxane Cohen Silver Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Benchmarking Discount Rate in Natural Resource Damage Assessment with Risk Aversion
This article integrates a holistic framework of NRDA with prevailing low discount rate theory, and proposes a discount rate benchmarking decision support system based on service‐specific risk aversion. The proposed approach has the flexibility of choosing appropriate discount rates for gauging long‐term services, as opposed to decisions based simply on duration. It improves injury identification in NRDA since potential damages and side‐effects to ecosystem services are revealed within the service‐specific framework. A real embankment case study demonstrates valid implementation of the method. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Desheng Wu, Shuzhen Chen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perception and Risk Talk: The Case of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Radiation Risk
Individuals’ perceptions and their interpersonal communication about a risk event, or risk talk, can play a significant role in the formation of societal responses to the risk event. As they formulate their risk opinions and speak to others, risk information can circulate through their social networks and contribute to the construction of their risk information environment. In the present study, Japanese citizens’ risk perception and risk talk were examined in the context of the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear radiation risk. We hypothesized and found that the risk information environment and risk literacy (i.e., com...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Takashi Kusumi, Rumi Hirayama, Yoshihisa Kashima Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling the Transmission of Measles and Rubella to Support Global Management Policy Analyses and Eradication Investment Cases
We describe the development of a dynamic disease model for measles and rubella transmission, which we apply to 180 WHO member states and three other areas (Puerto Rico, Hong Kong, and Macao) representing>99.5% of the global population in 2013. The model accounts for seasonality, age‐heterogeneous mixing, and the potential existence of preferentially mixing undervaccinated subpopulations, which create heterogeneity in immunization coverage that impacts transmission. Using our transmission model with the best available information about routine, supplemental, and outbreak response immunization, we characterize the compl...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Kimberly M. Thompson, Nima D. Badizadegan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling Precheck Parallel Screening Process in the Face of Strategic Applicants with Incomplete Information and Screening Errors
This article integrates game theory and queueing theory to study the optimal screening policy and provides some insights to imperfect parallel queueing screening systems. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Cen Song, Jun Zhuang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrated Uncertainty Analysis for Ambient Pollutant Health Risk Assessment: A Case Study of Ozone Mortality Risk
This article discusses how model uncertainty can be taken into account with an integrated uncertainty analysis (IUA) of health risk estimates. It provides an illustrative numerical example based on risk of premature death from respiratory mortality due to long‐term exposures to ambient ozone, which is a health risk considered in the 2015 ozone NAAQS decision. This example demonstrates that use of IUA to quantitatively incorporate key model uncertainties into risk estimates produces a substantially altered understanding of the potential public health gain of a NAAQS policy decision, and that IUA can also produce more help...
Source: Risk Analysis - April 1, 2017 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Anne E. Smith, Garrett Glasgow Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Big Data Challenges of High ‐Dimensional Continuous‐Time Mean‐Variance Portfolio Selection and a Remedy
This article investigates the big data challenges of two mean‐variance optimal portfolios: continuous‐time precommitment and constant‐rebalancing strategies. We show that both optimized portfolios implemented with the traditional sample estimates converge to the worst performing portfolio when the portfolio size becomes large. The crux of the problem is the estimation error accumulated from the huge dimension of stock data. We then propose a linear programming optimal (LPO) portfolio framework, which applies a constrained ℓ1 minimization to the theoretical optimal control to mitigate the risk associated with the di...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 30, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Mei Choi Chiu, Chi Seng Pun, Hoi Ying Wong Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

D. Warner North: Making Decisions under Uncertainty
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 23, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Not in My Backyard: CCS Sites and Public Perception of CCS
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a technology that counteracts climate change by capturing atmospheric emissions of CO2 from human activities, storing them in geological formations underground. However, CCS also involves major risks and side effects, and faces strong public opposition. The whereabouts of 408 potential CCS sites in Germany were released in 2011. Using detailed survey data on the public perception of CCS, this study quantifies how living close to a potential storage site affects the acceptance of CCS. It also analyzes the influence of other regional characteristics on the acceptance of CCS. The study find...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 23, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Carola Braun Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Assessment of the Risk of Release of Foot ‐and‐Mouth Disease Virus via Export of Bull Semen from Israel
Various foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) virus strains circulate in the Middle East, causing frequent episodes of FMD outbreaks among Israeli livestock. Since the virus is highly resistant in semen, artificial insemination with contaminated bull semen may lead to the infection of the receiver cow. As a non‐FMD‐free country with vaccination, Israel is currently engaged in trading bull semen only with countries of the same status. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk of release of FMD virus through export of bull semen in order to estimate the risk for FMD‐free countries considering purchasing Israeli bull ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 23, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: A. Meyer, L. Zamir, A. Ben Yair Gilboa, B. Gelman, D. U. Pfeiffer, T. Vergne Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Evaluation of the Consequences of a Cistern Truck Accident While Transporting Dangerous Substances through a Tunnel
The transportation of dangerous substances by truck carriers harbors important safety issues in both road and mine tunnels. Even though traffic conditions in road and mine tunnels are different, the potential geometric and hydrodynamic similarities can lead to similar effects from the uncontrolled leakage of the dangerous material. This work was motivated by the design study of the LAGUNA‐LBNO (Large Apparatus studying Grand Unification and Neutrino Astrophysics and Long Baseline Neutrino Oscillations) project. The considered neutrino detector requires a huge amount of liquid argon, which must be transported down the tun...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 23, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Ziemowit M. Malecha, Jarosaw Poliski, Maciej Chorowski Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Space Weather: Introducing a Survey Paper and a Recent Executive Order
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 21, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: D. Warner North Tags: Commentary Source Type: research

Authors ’ Response to Comment on “Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta‐Poisson Dose–Response Model” – Previously Published Guidelines Continue to Be Ignored
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 21, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Gang Xie Tags: Response Source Type: research

Comment on “Guidelines for Use of the Approximate Beta‐Poisson Dose–Response Model”: Previously Published Guidelines Continue to be Ignored
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 21, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Philip J. Schmidt Tags: Letter to the Editor Source Type: research

From the Editors
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 21, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Tags: From the Editors Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 21, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

Evaluating the Mental Models Approach to Developing a Risk Communication: A Scoping Review of the Evidence
This article took a first step at addressing this gap by conducting a scoping review that aimed to begin to explore the fidelity with which the approach has been applied, explore whether there appeared to be sufficient studies to warrant a future systematic review, and identify future research questions. Although the initial search found over 100 articles explicitly applying the MMARC, only 12 of these developed a risk‐related communication that was tested against a control (and thus included in the current review). All studies reported a positive effect of the MMARC versus control communication for at least some of the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Nick Boase, Mathew White, William Gaze, Clare Redshaw Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Community Perspective on Resilience Analytics: A Visual Analysis of Community Mood
Social networks are ubiquitous in everyday life. Although commonly analyzed from a perspective of individual interactions, social networks can provide insights about the collective behavior of a community. It has been shown that changes in the mood of social networks can be correlated to economic trends, public demonstrations, and political reactions, among others. In this work, we study community resilience in terms of the mood variations of the community. We have developed a method to characterize the mood steady‐state of online social networks and to analyze how this steady‐state is affected under certain perturbati...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Armando L ópez‐Cuevas, José Ramírez‐Márquez, Gildardo Sanchez‐Ante, Kash Barker Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Role of Risk Perception in Flu Vaccine Behavior among African ‐American and White Adults in the United States
This study addressed critical research questions to understand the differences between African and white Americans in the role of risk perception in flu vaccine behavior: (1) What is the dimensionality of risk perception and does it differ between the two races?  (2) Were risk perceptions of white and African‐American populations different and how were sociodemographic characteristics related to risk for each group? (3) What is the relation between risk perception and flu vaccine behaviors for African Americans and whites? The sample, drawn from GfK's Knowledge Panel, consisted of 838 whites and 819 African American...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Vicki S. Freimuth, Amelia Jamison, Gregory Hancock, Donald Musa, Karen Hilyard, Sandra Crouse Quinn Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Expert Views on Biological Threat Characterization for the U.S. Government: A Delphi Study
Biological threat characterization (BTC) involves laboratory research conducted for the purpose of biological defense. BTC research is important for improving biological risk assessment and informing resource prioritization. However, there are also risks involved in BTC work, including potential for escape from the laboratory or the misuse of research results. Using a modified Delphi study to gather opinions from U.S. experts in biosecurity and biodefense, this analysis explores what principles and safeguards can maximize the benefits of BTC research and ensure that it is conducted safely and securely. Delphi participants ...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Crystal R. Watson, Matthew C. Watson, Gary Ackerman, Gigi Kwik Gronvall Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perception and Disaster Preparedness in Immigrants and Canadian ‐Born Adults: Analysis of a National Survey on Similarities and Differences
Research has documented that immigrants tend to experience more negative consequences from natural disasters compared to native‐born individuals, although research on how immigrants perceive and respond to natural disaster risks is sparse. We investigated how risk perception and disaster preparedness for natural disasters in immigrants compared to Canadian‐born individuals as justifications for culturally‐adapted risk communication and management. To this end, we analyzed the ratings on natural disaster risk perception beliefs and preparedness behaviors from a nationally representative survey (N = 1,089). Factor anal...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: An Gie Yong, Louise Lemyre, Celine Pinsent, Daniel Krewski Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Analysis of Traffic Crashes Involving Pedestrians Using Big Data: Investigation of Contributing Factors and Identification of Hotspots
This study aims to explore the potential of using big data in advancing the pedestrian risk analysis including the investigation of contributing factors and the hotspot identification. Massive amounts of data of Manhattan from a variety of sources were collected, integrated, and processed, including taxi trips, subway turnstile counts, traffic volumes, road network, land use, sociodemographic, and social media data. The whole study area was uniformly split into grid cells as the basic geographical units of analysis. The cell‐structured framework makes it easy to incorporate rich and diversified data into risk analysis. T...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Kun Xie, Kaan Ozbay, Abdullah Kurkcu, Hong Yang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

“These Power Lines Make Me Ill”: A Typology of Residents’ Health Responses to a New High‐Voltage Power Line
Little attention has been devoted to the potential diversity in residents’ health responses when exposed to an uncertain environmental health risk. The present study explores whether subgroups of residents respond differently to a new high‐voltage power line (HVPL) being put into operation. We used a quasi‐experimental prospective field study design with two pretests during the construction of a new HVPL, and two posttests after it was put into operation. Residents living nearby (0–300 m, n = 229) filled out questionnaires about their health and their perception of the environment. We applied latent class g...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Jarry T. Porsius, Liesbeth Claassen, Fred Woudenberg, Tjabe Smid, Danielle R. M. Timmermans Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Deterrence and Risk Preferences in Sequential Attacker –Defender Games with Continuous Efforts
This study provides insights that could be used by policy analysts and decisionmakers involved in investment decisions in security and safety. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Vineet M. Payappalli, Jun Zhuang, Victor Richmond R. Jose Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Fish for Dinner? Balancing Risks, Benefits, and Values in Formulating Food Consumption Advice
Many and complex factors underlie seemingly simple decisions about what to eat. This is particularly so for foods such as fish, which present consumers with both risks and benefits. Advice about what type of and how much fish to consume is abundant, but that advice is often confusing or contradictory, reflecting the differing mandates and orientations of those advising. We survey a range of issues that can and should be incorporated into dietary advice, and offer tools for health agencies tasked with providing it. We argue that risks and benefits should not be limited to direct physical health. Rather, socioeconomic and co...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Karen Rideout, Tom Kosatsky Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Engaging with Comparative Risk Appraisals: Public Views on Policy Priorities for Environmental Risk Governance
Communicating the rationale for allocating resources to manage policy priorities and their risks is challenging. Here, we demonstrate that environmental risks have diverse attributes and locales in their effects that may drive disproportionate responses among citizens. When 2,065 survey participants deployed summary information and their own understanding to assess 12 policy‐level environmental risks singularly, their assessment differed from a prior expert assessment. However, participants provided rankings similar to those of experts when these same 12 risks were considered as a group, allowing comparison between the d...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 17, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Sophie A. Rocks, Iljana Schubert, Emma Soane, Edgar Black, Rachel Muckle, Judith Petts, George Prpich, Simon J. Pollard Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Review of Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction. Philip  E. Tetlock and Dan Gardner. (2015). New York: Broadway Books.
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - March 16, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Tony Cox Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Multi ‐Exposure Pathway Model to Compare Escherichia coli O157 Risks and Interventions
The relative contributions of exposure pathways associated with cattle‐manure‐borne Escherichia coli O157:H7 on public health have yet to be fully characterized. A stochastic, quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA) model was developed to describe a hypothetical cattle farm in order to compare the relative importance of five routes of exposure, including aquatic recreation downstream of the farm, consumption of contaminated ground beef processed with limited interventions, consumption of leafy greens, direct animal contact, and the recreational use of a cattle pasture. To accommodate diverse environmental and hyd...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: B. Chapman, K. Pintar, B. A. Smith Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Bayesian Belief Network Model Assessing the Risk to Wastewater Workers of Contracting Ebola Virus Disease During an Outbreak
During an outbreak of Ebola virus disease (EVD), hospitals’ connections to municipal wastewater systems may provide a path for patient waste bearing infectious viral particles to pass from the hospital into the wastewater treatment system, potentially posing risks to sewer and wastewater workers. To quantify these risks, we developed a Bayesian belief network model incorporating data on virus behavior and survival along with structural characteristics of hospitals and wastewater treatment systems. We applied the model to assess risks under several different scenarios of workers’ exposure to wastewater for a was...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Joseph W. Zabinski, Kelsey J. Pieper, Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Valuing Equal Protection in Aviation Security Screening
The growing number of anti‐terrorism policies has elevated public concerns about discrimination. Within the context of airport security screening, the current study examines how American travelers value the principle of equal protection by quantifying the “equity premium” that they are willing to sacrifice to avoid screening procedures that result in differential treatments. In addition, we applied the notion of procedural justice to explore the effect of alternative selective screening procedures on the value of equal protection. Two‐hundred and twenty‐two respondents were randomly assigned to one of thr...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Kenneth D. Nguyen, Heather Rosoff, Richard S. John Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Quantitative Risk Assessment of Norovirus Transmission in Food Establishments: Evaluating the Impact of Intervention Strategies and Food Employee Behavior on the Risk Associated with Norovirus in Foods
This study focused on the impact of ill food workers experiencing symptoms of diarrhea and vomiting and potential control measures for the transmission of norovirus to foods. The model examined the behavior of food employees regarding exclusion from work while ill and after symptom resolution and preventive measures limiting food contamination during preparation. The mean numbers of infected customers estimated for 21 scenarios were compared to the estimate for a baseline scenario representing current practices. Results show that prevention strategies examined could not prevent norovirus transmission to food when a symptom...
Source: Risk Analysis - March 1, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Steven Duret, R égis Pouillot, Wendy Fanaselle, Efstathia Papafragkou, Girvin Liggans, Laurie Williams, Jane M. Doren Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Role of Affect in Attitude Formation toward New Technologies: The Case of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection
This article analyzes determinants of technology acceptance and their interdependence. It highlights the role of affect in attitude formation toward new technologies and examines how it mediates the influence of stable psychological variables on the technology's acceptability. Based on theory and previous empirical evidence, we develop an analytical framework of attitude formation. We test this framework using survey data on attitudes toward stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI), a technology that could be used to counteract global warming. We show that affect is more important than risk and benefit perception in forming j...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 28, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Christine Merk, Gert P önitzsch Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Finely Resolved On ‐Road PM2.5 and Estimated Premature Mortality in Central North Carolina
In this study, we compared the on‐road PM2.5‐related premature mortality in central North Carolina with two different concentration estimation approaches—(i) using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to model concentration at a coarser resolution of a 36‐km × 36‐km grid resolution, and (ii) using a hybrid of a Gaussian dispersion model, CMAQ, and a space–time interpolation technique to provide annual average PM2.5 concentrations at a Census‐block level (∼105,000 Census blocks). The hybrid modeling approach estimated 24% more on‐road PM2.5‐related premature mortality than CM...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 28, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Shih Ying Chang, William Vizuete, Marc Serre, Lakshmi Pradeepa Vennam, Mohammad Omary, Vlad Isakov, Michael Breen, Saravanan Arunachalam Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Is the Precautionary Principle Really Incoherent?
This article concentrates on a theoretical argument by Peterson (2006) according to which the Precautionary Principle is incoherent with other desiderata of rational decision making, and thus cannot be used as a decision rule that selects an action among several ones. I claim here that Peterson's argument fails to establish the incoherence of the Precautionary Principle, by attacking three of its premises. I argue (i) that Peterson's treatment of uncertainties lacks generality, (ii) that his Archimedian condition is problematic for incommensurability reasons, and (iii) that his explication of the Precautionary Principle is...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 28, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: Thomas Boyer ‐Kassem Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Sampling Strategies for Evaluating the Rate of Adventitious Transgene Presence in Non ‐Genetically Modified Crop Fields
According to E.U. regulations, the maximum allowable rate of adventitious transgene presence in non‐genetically modified (GM) crops is 0.9%. We compared four sampling methods for the detection of transgenic material in agricultural non‐GM maize fields: random sampling, stratified sampling, random sampling + ratio reweighting, random sampling + regression reweighting. Random sampling involves simply sampling maize grains from different locations selected at random from the field concerned. The stratified and reweighting sampling methods make use of an auxiliary variable corresponding to the output of a gene‐flow model...
Source: Risk Analysis - February 23, 2017 Category: Global & Universal Authors: David Makowski, R émi Bancal, Arnaud Bensadoun, Hervé Monod, Antoine Messéan Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research