The 8 billion milestone: Risk perceptions of global population growth among UK and US residents
AbstractIn November 2022, the global human population reached 8 billion and is projected to reach 10 billion by 2060. Theories, models, and evidence indicate that global population growth (GPG) increases the likelihood of many adverse outcomes, such as biodiversity loss, climate change, mass migrations, wars, and resource shortages. A small body of research indicates that many individuals are concerned about the effects of GPG, and these concerns are strongly related to the willingness to engage in mitigative and preventative actions. However, scientific understanding of the factors that influence GPG risk perceptions rema...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 12, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ian G. J. Dawson,
Danni Zhang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Preferences in AI algorithms: The need for relevant risk attitudes in automated decisions under uncertainties
This article briefly describes the sometimes-serious problem of that discrepancy between the preferences of the risk managers who use an AI output, and the risk attitude embedded in the AI system. The recommendation is to make these AI factors as accessible and transparent as possible and to allow for preference adjustments in the model if needed. The formulation of two simplified examples is described, that of a medical doctor and his/her patient when using an AI system to decide of a treatment option, and that of a skipper in a sailing race such as the America's Cup, receiving AI-processed sensor signals about the sailin...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 7, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Elisabeth Pat é‐Cornell Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Game ‐theoretic algorithm for interdependent infrastructure network restoration in a decentralized environment
AbstractHaving reliable interdependent infrastructure networks is vital for well-being of a safe and productive society. Systems are vulnerable to failure or performance loss due to their interdependence among various networks, as each failure can propagate through the whole system. Although the conventional view has concentrated on optimizing the restoration of critical interdependent infrastructure networks using a centralized approach, having a lone actor as a decision-maker in the system is substantially different from the actual restoration decision environment, wherein infrastructure utilities make their own decision...
Source: Risk Analysis - January 5, 2024 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Alireza Rangrazjeddi,
Andr és D. González,
Kash Barker Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Dissecting climate change risk and financial market instability: Implications for ecological risk management
AbstractThis research investigates the impact of climate challenges on financial markets by introducing an innovative approach to measure climate risk, specifically the aggregate climate change concern (ACCC) index. The study aims to assess and quantify the potential influence of climate change and risk-related factors on the performance and dynamics of financial markets. In this paper, concern is defined as the attention paid to the risk of climate change and the associated negative consequences. The findings demonstrate that the aggregate index exhibits robust predictability of market risk premiums, both within the sampl...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 31, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Feng Ma,
Jiawei Cao,
Yizhi Wang,
Samuel A. Vigne,
Dayong Dong Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 27, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Assessing key behavioural theories of drought risk adaptation: Evidence from rural Kenya
AbstractThe Horn of Africa Drylands are increasingly experiencing severe droughts, which impose a threat on traditional livelihood strategies. Understanding adaptation behavior in rural communities is key to helping reduce the impact of these droughts. We investigate adaptation behavior by assessing four established economic and social psychological theories on decision making under risk: expected utility theory (EUT), rank dependent utility theory (RDU), protection motivation theory (PMT), and theory of planned behavior (PMT). To measure adaptation behavior and the theory constructs, we conducted a household survey in Ken...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 19, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Teun Schrieks,
W. J. Wouter Botzen,
Toon Haer,
Oliver V. Wasonga,
Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
When increasing risk perception does not work. Using behavioral psychology to increase smoke alarm ownership
AbstractThe central question of our study is which determinants drive smoke alarm ownership and intention to purchase one, and whether we can increase smoke alarm ownership by addressing these determinants in a communication-based intervention. We first made an inventory of possible determinants for smoke alarm prevention by consulting prominent prevention behavior theories protection motivation theory and Health Belief Model and other relevant literature. We expanded this list of determinants based on interviews (n = 15) and used survey data representative for the Netherlands to decide to focus on smoke alarm ownership ...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 15, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Patty Jansen,
Chris Snijders,
Martijn C. Willemsen Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
A global study of screening intensity and economic status on epidemic control performance during various epidemic periods of COVID ‐19 mutant strains
This study analyzed global data on epidemic control measures and economic conditions in different countries during different mutant strain epidemic periods, including the Alpha, Delta, and Omicron strains. The study estimated the elasticity coefficient through a log-log model, which represents the percent change of the confirmed case number with respect to a percent change in the total number of screening tests in a country for epidemic control. The 7-day rolling data of screening tests and confirmed cases from the Our World in Data database for the pandemic periods of Alpha strain in 2020, Delta strain in 2021, and Omicro...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Chao ‐Chin Chang,
Chia‐Lin Chang Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Issue Information ‐ TOC
(Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - December 11, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: ISSUE INFORMATION Source Type: research
Risk perception and interpersonal discussion on risk: A systematic literature review
AbstractRisk perception research has long been attentive to the fact that risk is a social construction. Nevertheless, this fact has not been integrated into empirical research in any systematic manner. Empirical studies that do focus on the social construction of risk often do so from very different positions and with different objectives in mind. Interpersonal discussion, while considered an important medium of social construction, is rarely given consideration. This systematic literature review aims to provide a coherent foundation for empirical studies of interpersonal discussion on risk. Specifically, it summarizes ex...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 9, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sara Perlstein Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Sensitivity analysis for a participatory approach to enhance the climate resilience of Venice, Italy
AbstractIncreases in the magnitudes and frequencies of climate-related extreme events are redistributing risk across coastal systems, including their environmental, economic, and social components. Consequently, stakeholders (SHs) are faced with long-term challenges and complex information when managing assets, services, and uses of the coast. In this context, SH engagement is a key step for risk management and in the preparation of resilience plans to respond and adapt to climate change. This paper develops a participatory method to identify and prioritize a set of risk measures, combining multi-criteria analysis with sen...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 9, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Beatrice Sambo,
Marcello Sano,
Anna Sperotto,
Marco Zanetti,
Silvia Torresan,
James H. Lambert,
Igor Linkov,
Andrea Critto Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Complexity for complexity —How advanced modeling may limit its applicability for decision‐makers
AbstractAs today's engineering systems have become increasingly sophisticated, assessing the efficacy of their safety-critical systems has become much more challenging. The more classical methods of “failure” analysis by decomposition into components related by logic trees, such as fault and event trees, root cause analysis, and failure mode and effects analysis lead to models that do not necessarily behave like the real systems they are meant to represent. These models need to display simi lar emergent and unpredictable behaviors to sociotechnical systems in the real world. The question then arises as to whether a ret...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 4, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ben J. M. Ale,
David H. Slater Tags: PERSPECTIVE Source Type: research
Understanding the implications of low knowledge and high uncertainty in risk studies
AbstractRisk analysis has existed for thousands of years and will continue to grow in importance across professions and industries. Of special importance is the need to understand and manage risk when there is low knowledge and high uncertainties. Even with pristine and high-quality risk analysis in these situations, integrity and credibility can be questioned, and risk events can happen. Although these issues do not prove some shortcoming in risk analysis and risk management, they can directly impact the risk analyst and decision-makers. The risk literature has addressed the issues of defining and promoting integrity and ...
Source: Risk Analysis - December 1, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shital Thekdi,
Terje Aven Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Integrating irrational behavior into flood risk models to test the outcomes of policy interventions
AbstractHouseholders are increasingly responsible for managing residual flood risk at property level. Yet, consumers are observed to adopt irrational behaviors under scenarios of risk, often making suboptimal decisions. Therefore, the question is raised, if householders are required to manage flood risk at household level, how can this be made fair and efficient? Policy instruments often incorporate “fairness” by subsidizing the costs of mitigation options, assuming a linear relationship between available finances and the uptake of risk mitigation measures. To integrate behavior into the assessment of policy instrument...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 30, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Linda Geaves,
Jim Hall,
Edmund Penning ‐Rowsell OBE Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
Risk science applied to major risk events in history
This article explores past risk events, (1) analyzes how risk science principles apply to those events, and (2) studies gaps and opportunities for risk science using the lenses of consequences, uncertainty, and knowledge as they relate to evidence used for risk assessment prior to the risk event. New insights are obtained, relating to general foundational risk science issues and a classification system for characterizing the integrity and quality of evidence in risk studies. The analysis results are used to identify how risk science approaches contribute to the overall management of risk and societal safety, and where impr...
Source: Risk Analysis - November 30, 2023 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shital Thekdi,
Terje Aven Tags: ORIGINAL ARTICLE Source Type: research
