Quantifying Community Resilience Using Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods: A Case Study on Recovery from Power Outages
AbstractThe ability to accurately measure recovery rate of infrastructure systems and communities impacted by disasters is vital to ensure effective response and resource allocation before, during, and after a disruption. However, a challenge in quantifying such measures resides in the lack of data as community recovery information is seldom recorded. To provide accurate community recovery measures, a hierarchical Bayesian kernel model (HBKM) is developed to predict the recovery rate of communities experiencing power outages during storms. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using cross ‐validation and co...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Jin ‐Zhu Yu, Hiba Baroud Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimal Abort Rules for Multiattempt Missions
AbstractMany real ‐world systems use mission aborts to enhance their survivability. Specifically, a mission can be aborted when a certain malfunction condition is met and a risk of a system loss in the case of a mission continuation becomes too high. Usually, the rescue or recovery procedure is initiated upon the m ission abort. Previous works have discussed a setting when only one attempt to complete a mission is allowed and this attempt can be aborted. However, missions with a possibility of multiple attempts can occur in different real‐world settings when accomplishing a mission is really important and th e cost‐r...
Source: Risk Analysis - July 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Gregory Levitin, Maxim Finkelstein, Hong ‐Zhong Huang Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 7, July 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 7, Page 1433-1434, July 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Mega ‐Review: Causality Books Causal Analytics for Applied Risk Analysis by Louis Anthony Cox, Jr., Douglas A. Popken, and Richard X. Sun. Springer, International Series in Operations Research & Management Science, Vol. 270, 2018, $229, xxii+588. The Book of Why: The New Science of Cause and Effect by Judea  Pearl and Dana Mackenzie. New York: Basic Books, 2018, $32, x+419. Causality: Models, Reasoning and Inference by Judea Pearl, Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, 2000, 2nd edition, 2009, $64.99, xix+465.
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 7, Page 1647-1654, July 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: D. Warner North Tags: Book Reviews Source Type: research

Ortwin Renn: Risk Governance Maven
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 7, Page 1435-1440, July 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 5, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg, Karen Lowrie Tags: Biographical Profile Source Type: research

Modeling and Managing Interdependent Complex Systems of Systems by Yacov Y. Haimes, John Wiley and Sons, New York, New York, 2019, 500+ pages, $127.69, ISBN 9781119173656 (cloth).
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Pricing Lives: Guideposts for a Safer Society. W. Kip Viscusi (2018). Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - July 2, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: James K. Hammitt Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Health Risk Assessment of Photoresists Used in an Optoelectronic Semiconductor Factory
We examined the composition and by‐products of the photoresists according to descriptions published in the literature and patents; the main compositions assessed were propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (PGMEA), novol ac resin, photoactive compound, phenol, cresol, benzene, toluene, and xylene. Reference concentrations for each compound were reassessed and updated if necessary. Calculated hazard quotients were greater than 1 for benzene, phenol, xylene, and PGMEA, indicating that they have the potential for expos ures that exceed reference levels. The information from our health risk assessment suggests that benzene an...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shao ‐Zu Huang, Kuen‐Yuh Wu Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods
This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period. We exemplify this through a case study: the flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city, China, on July 6, 2016 (the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster”). The results indicate that (i) the indirect economic impacts of the “7.6 Wuhan fl...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Peng Cui, Hong Xu, Yuan Liu, Xi Chen, Jieling Feng Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Health Risk Assessment of Photoresists Used in an Optoelectronic Semiconductor Factory
We examined the composition and by‐products of the photoresists according to descriptions published in the literature and patents; the main compositions assessed were propylene glycol methyl ether acetate (PGMEA), novol ac resin, photoactive compound, phenol, cresol, benzene, toluene, and xylene. Reference concentrations for each compound were reassessed and updated if necessary. Calculated hazard quotients were greater than 1 for benzene, phenol, xylene, and PGMEA, indicating that they have the potential for expos ures that exceed reference levels. The information from our health risk assessment suggests that benzene an...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Shao ‐Zu Huang, Kuen‐Yuh Wu Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods
This article emphasizes the importance of considering labor disruption when evaluating the economic impact of natural disasters. Based on the principle of disasters and resilience theory, our model integrates nonlinear recovery of labor losses and the demand of labor from outside the disaster area into the dynamic evaluation of the economic impact in the postdisaster recovery period. We exemplify this through a case study: the flood disaster that occurred in Wuhan city, China, on July 6, 2016 (the “7.6 Wuhan flood disaster”). The results indicate that (i) the indirect economic impacts of the “7.6 Wuhan fl...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Zhengtao Zhang, Ning Li, Peng Cui, Hong Xu, Yuan Liu, Xi Chen, Jieling Feng Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners
This study uses panel data methods to explore the psychological factors affecting probability neglect of flood risk relevant to the zero end‐point of the probability weighting function in Prospect Theory, and willingness‐to‐pay for flood insurance. In particular, w e focus on explanatory variables of anticipatory and anticipated emotions, as well as the threshold of concern. Moreover, results obtained under real and hypothetical incentives are compared in an experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on our findings, we suggest several policy recommenda tions to overcome individual decision processes, which ma...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Peter John Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Optimization of the Aflatoxin Monitoring Costs along the Maize Supply Chain
AbstractAn optimization model was used to gain insight into cost ‐effective monitoring plans for aflatoxins along the maize supply chain. The model was based on a typical Dutch maize chain, with maize grown in the Black Sea region, and transported by ship to the Netherlands for use as an ingredient in compound feed for dairy cattle. Six different scenarios, wit h different aflatoxin concentrations at harvest and possible aflatoxin production during transport, were used. By minimizing the costs and using parameters such as the concentration, the variance of the sampling plan, and the monitoring and replacement costs, the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: M. Focker, H. J. Fels ‐Klerx, A. G. J. M. Oude Lansink Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Determinants of Probability Neglect and Risk Attitudes for Disaster Risk: An Online Experimental Study of Flood Insurance Demand among Homeowners
This study uses panel data methods to explore the psychological factors affecting probability neglect of flood risk relevant to the zero end‐point of the probability weighting function in Prospect Theory, and willingness‐to‐pay for flood insurance. In particular, w e focus on explanatory variables of anticipatory and anticipated emotions, as well as the threshold of concern. Moreover, results obtained under real and hypothetical incentives are compared in an experiment with high experimental outcomes. Based on our findings, we suggest several policy recommenda tions to overcome individual decision processes, which ma...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 27, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Peter John Robinson, W. J. Wouter Botzen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Mastering Catastrophic Risk: How Companies Are Coping with Disruption, by Howard Kunreuther, Erwann Michel ‐Kerjan, and Michael Useem, Oxford, New York, 2018, 240 pages, US$29.95, ISBN 9780190499402.
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 25, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

The Science and Practice of Resilience by Igor Linkov and Benjamin Trump. Springer, Cham, Switzerland. 2019. 202 pp. + references. $109.00. ISBN 978 –3– 030– 04563–0.
Risk Analysis, EarlyView. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 21, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Michael Greenberg Tags: Book Review Source Type: research

Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life
This study provides additional evidence that there exist a dread premium and risk elimination premium. These factors should be considered when searching for an appropriate value for economic evalua tion and health technology assessment. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sara Olofsson, Ulf G. Gerdtham, Lars Hultkrantz, Ulf Persson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Issue Information ‐ TOC
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 6, June 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Tags: Issue Information Source Type: research

From the Editors
Risk Analysis, Volume 39, Issue 6, Page 1193-1195, June 2019. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tony Cox, Karen Lowrie Tags: Editorial Source Type: research

Dread and Risk Elimination Premium for the Value of a Statistical Life
This study provides additional evidence that there exist a dread premium and risk elimination premium. These factors should be considered when searching for an appropriate value for economic evalua tion and health technology assessment. (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 13, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sara Olofsson, Ulf G. Gerdtham, Lars Hultkrantz, Ulf Persson Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

An Adversarial Risk Analysis Framework for Cybersecurity
AbstractRisk analysis is an essential methodology for cybersecurity as it allows organizations to deal with cyber threats potentially affecting them, prioritize the defense of their assets, and decide what security controls should be implemented. Many risk analysis methods are present in cybersecurity models, compliance frameworks, and international standards. However, most of them employ risk matrices, which suffer shortcomings that may lead to suboptimal resource allocations. We propose a comprehensive framework for cybersecurity risk analysis, covering the presence of both intentional and nonintentional threats and the ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 10, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: David Rios Insua, Aitor Couce ‐Vieira, Jose A. Rubio, Wolter Pieters, Katsiaryna Labunets, Daniel G. Rasines Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness
This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and cos tly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the r iver) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers i...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daran Gray ‐Scholz, Timothy J. Haney, Pamela MacQuarrie Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Integrating Operational and Organizational Aspects in Interdependent Infrastructure Network Recovery
AbstractManaging risk in infrastructure systems implies dealing with interdependent physical networks and their relationships with the natural and societal contexts. Computational tools are often used to support operational decisions aimed at improving resilience, whereas economics ‐related tools tend to be used to address broader societal and policy issues in infrastructure management. We propose an optimization‐based framework for infrastructure resilience analysis that incorporates organizational and socioeconomic aspects into operational problems, allowing to understan d relationships between decisions at the polic...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Camilo Gomez, Andr és D. González, Hiba Baroud, Claudia D. Bedoya‐Motta Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

A Novel Approach to Chemical Mixture Risk Assessment —Linking Data from Population‐Based Epidemiology and Experimental Animal Tests
The objective of this exercise is to generate a proof of concept for the systematic integration of epidemiological and experimental evidence with mixture risk assessment strategies. Using a whole mixture approach, we could find a higher rate of pre gnant women under risk (13%) when comparing with the data from more traditional models of additivity (3%), or a compound‐by‐compound strategy (1.6%). (Source: Risk Analysis)
Source: Risk Analysis - June 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Carl ‐Gustaf Bornehag, Efthymia Kitraki, Antonios Stamatakis, Emily Panagiotidou, Christina Rudén, Huan Shu, Christian Lindh, Joelle Ruegg, Chris Gennings Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Out of Sight, Out of Mind? Geographic and Social Predictors of Flood Risk Awareness
This study seeks to understand which residents were aware of flood risk, using unique representative survey data of Calgary residents living in the city's flood‐prone neighborhoods collected after the devastating and cos tly 2013 Southern Alberta Flood. The article uses logistic regression models to analyze which residents were aware of risk to their homes. Findings indicate that, in addition to various demographic predictors, many of the geographic predictors (including the elevation of one's home relative to the r iver) are significant predictors of awareness. Having a direct sight line to one of Calgary's two rivers i...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 7, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daran Gray ‐Scholz, Timothy J. Haney, Pamela MacQuarrie Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk –Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection
This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precis...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seth D. Baum Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation
AbstractEmergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single ‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this a rticle introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanyan Wang, Vicki M. Bier, Baiqing Sun Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk –Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection
This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precis...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Seth D. Baum Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Measuring and Achieving Equity in Multiperiod Emergency Material Allocation
AbstractEmergency material allocation is an important part of postdisaster emergency logistics that is significant for improving rescue effectiveness and reducing disaster losses. However, the traditional single ‐period allocation model often causes local surpluses or shortages and high cost, and prevents the system from achieving an equitable or optimal multiperiod allocation. To achieve equitable allocation of emergency materials in the case of serious shortages relative to the demand by victims, this a rticle introduces a multiperiod model for allocation of emergency materials to multiple affected locations (using an ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Yanyan Wang, Vicki M. Bier, Baiqing Sun Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Modeling of Distributed Generators Resilience Considering Lifeline Dependencies During Extreme Events
This article derives distributed generators resilience models considering lifeline dependencies during extreme events. The effects on power resilience of storage capacity, fuel delays, and fuel order placements are analyzed. Results indicate that storage capacity has an important role in improving overall power supply resilience as seen by loads. In addition, the presented models provide a quantifiable approach in evaluating fuel delivery resilience. The models facilitate studying fuel scheduling policies and local fuel storage sizing for specified resilience requirements. It is observed that tank autonomy greatly affects ...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 4, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Vaidyanathan Krishnamurthy, Alexis Kwasinski Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Risk Perception and Human Health Risk in Rural Communities Consuming Unregulated Well Water in Saskatchewan, Canada
AbstractRural communities dependent on unregulated drinking water are potentially at increased health risk from exposure to contaminants. Perception of drinking water safety influences water consumption, exposure, and health risk. A community ‐based participatory approach and probabilistic Bayesian methods were applied to integrate risk perception in a holistic human health risk assessment. Tap water arsenic concentrations and risk perception data were collected from two Saskatchewan communities. Drinking water health standards were ex ceeded in 67% (51/76) of households in Rural Municipality #184 (RM184) and 56% (25/45)...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Lorelei Ford, Cheryl Waldner, Javier Sanchez, Lalita Bharadwaj Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Practical Significance of Measurement Error in Pulmonary Function Testing Conducted in Research Settings
AbstractConventional spirometry produces measurement error by using repeatability criteria (RC) to discard acceptable data and terminating tests early when RC are met. These practices also implicitly assume that there is no variation across maneuvers within each test. This has implications for air pollution regulations that rely on pulmonary function tests to determine adverse effects or set standards. We perform a Monte Carlo simulation of 20,902 tests of forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1), each with eight maneuvers, for an individual with empirically obtained, plausibly normal pulmonary function. Default coeffic...
Source: Risk Analysis - June 3, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Richard B. Belzer, R. Jeffrey Lewis Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

The Frontiers of Uncertainty Estimation in Interdisciplinary Disaster Research and Practice
AbstractConceptualizing, assessing, and managing disaster risks involve collecting and synthesizing pluralistic information —from natural, built, and human systems—to characterize disaster impacts and guide policy on effective resilience investments. Disaster research and practice, therefore, are highly complex and inherently interdisciplinary endeavors. Characterizing the uncertainties involved in interdisciplinary disaster research is imperative, since misrepresenting uncertainty can lead to myopic decisions and suboptimal societal outcomes. Efficacious disaster mitigation should, therefore, explicitly addres...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 29, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Roshanak Nateghi, Jeannette Sutton, Pamela Murray ‐Tuite Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions
This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential bar riers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceive d ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emma J. Williams, Emily Blackwell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Illustration of a Method to Incorporate Preference Uncertainty in Benefit –Cost Analysis
AbstractBenefit –cost analysis is widely used to evaluate alternative courses of action that are designed to achieve policy objectives. Although many analyses take uncertainty into account, they typically only consider uncertainty about cost estimates and physical states of the world, whereas uncertainty about in dividual preferences, thus the benefit of policy intervention, is ignored. Here, we propose a strategy to integrate individual uncertainty about preferences into benefit–cost analysis usingsocietal preference intervals, which are ranges of values over which it is unclear whether society as a whole shou...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, Alexander L. Davis, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Probabilistic Modeling of Flood Hazard and its Risk Assessment for Eastern Region of India
This article models flood occurrence probabilistically and its risk assessment. It incorporates atmospheric parameters to forecast rainfall in an area. This measure of precipitation, together with river and ground parameters, serve as parameters in the model to predict runoff and subsequently inundation depth of an area. The inundation depth acts as a guide for predicting flood proneness and associated hazard. The vulnerability owing to flood has been analyzed as social vulnerability (VS), vulnerability to property (VP), and vulnerability to the location in terms of awareness (VA). The associated risk has been estimated fo...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Pratyay Manna, Mohammed Zafar Anis, Prasun Das, Soumya Banerjee Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Managing the Risk of Aggressive Dog Behavior: Investigating the Influence of Owner Threat and Efficacy Perceptions
This article uses a survey methodology based on protection motivation theory (PMT) to investigate the factors that influence owner use of positive reinforcement methods to manage aggressive behavior, in an attempt to understand potential bar riers and drivers of use. In addition, the article provides an initial exploration of the potential role of wider psychological factors, including owner emotional state, social influence, and cognitive bias. Findings show that the perceived efficacy of positive reinforcement methods and the perceive d ability of owners to effectively implement the technique are both key factors predict...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Emma J. Williams, Emily Blackwell Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Illustration of a Method to Incorporate Preference Uncertainty in Benefit –Cost Analysis
AbstractBenefit –cost analysis is widely used to evaluate alternative courses of action that are designed to achieve policy objectives. Although many analyses take uncertainty into account, they typically only consider uncertainty about cost estimates and physical states of the world, whereas uncertainty about in dividual preferences, thus the benefit of policy intervention, is ignored. Here, we propose a strategy to integrate individual uncertainty about preferences into benefit–cost analysis usingsocietal preference intervals, which are ranges of values over which it is unclear whether society as a whole shou...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 28, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Sunhee Baik, Alexander L. Davis, M. Granger Morgan Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

The Value of a Statistical Life for Risk ‐Averse and Risk‐Seeking Individuals
This article estimates the value of a statistical life (VSL) for Chile under the hedonic wage method while accounting for individual risk preferences. Two alternative measures of risk aversion are used. First, risk aversion is directly measured using survey measures of preferences over hypothetical gambles, and second, over observed individual behaviors that may proxy for risk preferences, such as smoking status, are used. I reconcile the results with a theoretical model of economic behavior that predicts how the wage ‐risk tradeoff changes as risk aversion differs across individuals. The VSL estimates range between 0.61...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 20, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Marcela V. Parada ‐Contzen Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research

Rethinking Resilience Analytics
This article explains the limitations of resilience analytics when critical infrastructure systems are ch allenged by fundamental surprises never conceived during model development. In these cases, adoption of resilience analytics may prove either useless for decision support or harmful by increasing dangers during unprecedented events. We demonstrate that these dangers are not limited to a single CPS c ontext by highlighting the limits of analytic models during hurricanes, dam failures, blackouts, and stock market crashes. We conclude that resilience analytics alone are not able to adapt to the very events that motivate t...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 17, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Daniel Eisenberg, Thomas Seager, David L. Alderson Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Do Interactions Between Environmental Chemicals and the Human Microbiome Need to Be Considered in Risk Assessments?
AbstractOne of the most dynamic and fruitful areas of current health ‐related research concerns the various roles of the human microbiome in disease. Evidence is accumulating that interactions between substances in the environment and the microbiome can affect risks of disease, in both beneficial and adverse ways. Although most of the research has concerned the rol es of diet and certain pharmaceutical agents, there is increasing interest in the possible roles of environmental chemicals. Chemical risk assessment has, to date, not included consideration of the influence of the microbiome. We suggest that failure to consid...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 9, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Joseph Rodricks, Yvonne Huang, Ellen Mantus, Pamela Shubat Tags: Perspective Source Type: research

Risk ‐Informed Requirements for Design and Assessment of Structures Under Temporary Use
AbstractThe relatively high failure rates, with important consequences in many cases, suggest that the implicitly acceptable risk levels corresponding to temporary civil engineering structures and activities might exceed the bounds of normally acceptable levels associated with different societal activities. Among other reasons, this may be attributed to the lack of a rational approach for the assessment of risks associated with the different technologies supporting these activities in general, and for structures in particular. There is a need for establishing appropriate target reliability levels for structures under tempo...
Source: Risk Analysis - May 6, 2019 Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Ramon Hingorani, Peter Tanner Tags: Original Research Article Source Type: research