Development and validation of a simple risk model to predict major cancers for patients with nonalcoholic fatty liver disease

Seven risk factors including age (every 5  years), low‐density lipoprotein‐cholesterol, smoking, body mass index, diabetes, obstructive sleep apnea syndrome, and aspartate aminotransferase (every 5 units) were independent indicators of 8‐year cancer events in patients with NAFLD. A simple risk model and a score system were developed to predict the risk of cancer events after NAFLD based on 8‐year follow‐up of 1254 NAFLD patients. The risk model was well validated in the test samples (n = 627) and evaluation samples (n = 627) with 8‐year follow‐up. Importantly, the risk model performed well in another independent val idation samples (n = 3053). This risk model provides a basis for clinicians to better understand patients' risk of long‐term cancer events after NAFLD. AbstractObjectiveTo recognize risk factors and build up and validate a simple risk model predicting 8 ‐year cancer events after nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD).MethodsThis was a retrospective cohort study. Patients with NAFLD (n  = 5561) were randomly divided into groups: training (n = 1254), test (n = 627), evaluation (n = 627), and validation (n = 3053). Risk factors were recognized by statistical method named as a Cox model with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation. This prediction score was established b ased on the training group and was further validated based on the testing and evaluation gro...
Source: Cancer Medicine - Category: Cancer & Oncology Authors: Tags: ORIGINAL RESEARCH Source Type: research

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