The 6 Factors That Will Determine the Severity of the COVID-19 Surge in the U.S. This Fall

Here we go again. The United States is now experiencing a fourth wave of COVID-19, with very rapidly rising infections. The surge in new daily cases is driven by the Delta variant, which makes up 83% of sequenced samples in the U.S. and which is estimated to be twice as transmissible as the original strain. One of the reasons that Delta spreads more easily is that a person infected with this variant has a viral load 1,000 times higher than someone infected with the original version of SARS-CoV-2. [time-brightcove not-tgx=”true”] Hospitalizations and deaths are also rising, though more slowly than cases, reflecting the fact that 49% of all Americans are fully vaccinated. Even with Delta, COVID-19 vaccines are extremely effective at preventing severe illness and death. Anthony Fauci, President Joe Biden’s chief medical advisor on COVID-19, estimates that over 99% of people dying in the U.S. from the illness are unvaccinated. But the levels of vaccination are not high enough in some areas to prevent new surges among those who are not inoculated. And with growing infections among the unvaccinated, some vaccinated people are not surprisingly getting breakthrough infections because no vaccines are 100% effective. So, what happens next? How is the pandemic likely to play out into the fall and winter? Here are six factors that are likely to drive the shape of the pandemic in the coming months. First, local vaccination rates will continue to be the most important f...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized COVID-19 Source Type: news

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J Formos Med Assoc. 2021 May 27:S0929-6646(21)00237-0. doi: 10.1016/j.jfma.2021.05.022. Online ahead of print.ABSTRACTThe spread of the emerging pathogen, named as SARS-CoV-2, has led to an unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic since 1918 influenza pandemic. This review first sheds light on the similarity on global transmission, surges of pandemics, and the disparity of prevention between two pandemics. Such a brief comparison also provides an insight into the potential sequelae of COVID-19 based on the inference drawn from the fact that a cascade of successive influenza pandemic occurred after 1918 and also the previous experie...
Source: J Formos Med Assoc - Category: General Medicine Authors: Source Type: research
By Folake OlayinkaAug 15 2020 (IPS) In 1918, the Spanish Flu, a deadly influenza caused by the H1N1 virus, decimated the world. Over the course of four successive waves, it infected 500 million people, about a third of the world’s population at the time, resulting in 50 million deaths. More recently between 2014 and mid-2016 , the Ebola virus epidemic was the most widespread outbreak of Ebola virus disease in history—causing devastating  loss of life and socioeconomic disruption in the West Africa region, mainly in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone. These outbreaks, as well as SARS and MERS, each have ...
Source: IPS Inter Press Service - Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Democracy Headlines Health Source Type: news
Countries around the world have introduced stringent control measures to stop COVID-19 outbreaks growing, but now many find themselves facing the same situation again. From Melbourne to Miami, the relaxation of measures had led to increasing flare-ups, which in some places has already meant reclosing schools, businesses or travel routes. Within the U.S. and among different countries, places with wildly varying public-health policies have experienced wildly diverse outcomes. Most ominously, infections are rising rapidly in many places where they once were falling. So how do countries avoid an indefinite, unsustainable, cycl...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized COVID-19 Source Type: news
By MICHEL ACCAD, MD With cases of COVID-19 either disappeared or rapidly diminishing from places like Wuhan, Italy, New York, and Sweden, many voices are speculating that herd immunity may have been reached in those areas and that it may be at hand in the remaining parts of the world that are still struggling with the pandemic.  Lockdowns should end—or may not have been needed to begin with, they conclude. Adding plausibility to their speculation is the discovery of biological evidence suggesting that prior exposure to other coronaviruses may confer some degree of immunity against SARS-CoV...
Source: The Health Care Blog - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: COVID-19 Health Policy immunity MICHEL ACCAD Pandemic Source Type: blogs
This article originally appeared on The Bulwark here. The post The False Choice Between Science And Economics appeared first on The Health Care Blog.
Source: The Health Care Blog - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: COVID-19 Health Policy David Shaywitz Source Type: blogs
This article is republished from The Conversation. Read the original article. The post Coronavirus: Ten Reasons Why You Ought Not to Panic appeared first on Inter Press Service. Excerpt: Ignacio López-Goñi is microbiologist and works in University of Navarra (Spain). The post Coronavirus: Ten Reasons Why You Ought Not to Panic appeared first on Inter Press Service.
Source: IPS Inter Press Service - Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Global Headlines Health Coronavirus Source Type: news
Pandemics are perversely democratic. They’re nasty, lethal and sneaky, but they don’t discriminate. No matter your age, ethnicity, religion, gender, or nation, you’re a part of the pathogenic constituency. That shared vulnerability, and the resulting human collectivism—a universal response to a universal threat—is newly and vividly evident in the face of the now-global outbreak of the novel coronavirus known as 2019-nCoV. As of writing, there have been over 30,000 diagnosed cases and over 630 related deaths. A virus that emerged in a single city, Wuhan, China—indeed, in a single crowded ...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized 2019-nCoV Infectious Disease Source Type: news
“Everyone knows that pestilences have a way of recurring in the world,” observes Albert Camus in his novel The Plague. “Yet somehow we find it hard to believe in ones that crash down on our heads from a blue sky. There have been as many plagues as wars in history; yet plagues and wars always take people by surprise.” Camus was imagining a fictional outbreak of plague in 1948 in Oran, a port city in northwest Algeria. But at a time when the world is reeling from a very real microbial emergency sparked by the emergence of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan, central China, his observations are as pertinent a...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized 2019-nCoV health ideas Source Type: news
We were surprised in 2002 when a new coronavirus called SARS emerged from southern China and spread to 17 countries, causing more than 8,000 disease cases and nearly 800 deaths. We were surprised in 2009 when a new H1N1 influenza strain emerged in Mexico and caused worldwide panic. We were surprised in 2014 when Ebola virus broke out in three West African countries, with nearly 30,000 cases and more than 11,000 deaths. And here we are now, facing the 2019-nCoV coronavirus outbreak, on the verge of becoming a worldwide pandemic, wthin China reporting over 20,000 cases and nearly 500 deaths. Three years ago in a book, Deadl...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized 2019-nCoV health ideas Source Type: news
The year of the rat is off to an ominous start. “We just stay home and don’t go out,” says Mr. Dong. The 33-year-old researcher, who provided only one name, has no other options. He, his wife and their 3-month-old daughter live in Wuhan, the epicenter of an unfolding global health crisis. They’re treating the forced time at home as a holiday, though he says, “this is different than any of them before.” Families like his huddle in their homes, fearful that if they venture out, they will get sick. Since the first cases of a previously unknown pneumonia-like illness emerged in December, Wuh...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized Source Type: news
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