A clinical prediction model for outcome and therapy delivery in transplant-ineligible patients with myeloma (UK Myeloma Research Alliance Risk Profile): a development and validation study

Publication date: Available online 6 February 2019Source: The Lancet HaematologyAuthor(s): Gordon Cook, Kara-Louise Royle, Charlotte Pawlyn, Anna Hockaday, Vallari Shah, Martin F Kaiser, Sarah R Brown, Walter M Gregory, J Anthony Child, Faith E Davies, Gareth J Morgan, David A Cairns, Graham H JacksonSummaryBackgroundTolerability of treatments for multiple myeloma can depend on the characteristics of the patient being treated. We aimed to develop and validate a risk profile, using routinely collected data, that could predict overall survival in patients with multiple myeloma who were ineligible for stem-cell transplantation.MethodsWe used patient data from two randomised controlled trials done in patients with newly diagnosed multiple myeloma who were ineligible for stem-cell transplantation (the NCRI Myeloma XI study [NCRI-XI, n=1852] and the MRC Myeloma IX study [MRC-IX, n=520]), to develop the UK Myeloma Research Alliance Risk Profile (MRP) for overall survival. We used multivariable Cox regression with a least absolute shrinkage and selection operator penalty term. Multiple imputation by chained equations was used to account for missing data in the development and internal validation of the model. The MRP was internally validated in NCRI-XI and externally validated in MRC-IX. The D-statistic was estimated in the developed model and used to internally and externally validate the model according to prespecified criteria.FindingsThe MRP included WHO performance status, Inter...
Source: The Lancet Haematology - Category: Hematology Source Type: research