UCLA-led research proposes strategies to control pandemic with fewer restrictions on the economy

An international team led by UCLA Fielding School of Public Health researchers has developed and tested two strategies for sustaining economic activity during the COVID-19 pandemic. If used together and followed closely, they write, the approaches could reduce transmission of the coronavirus by an amount comparable to that of a strict lockdown, while also maintaining economic activity.The team, made up of researchers from nine institutions and led byDr. Akihiro Nishi, a UCLA assistant professor of epidemiology, put forward two concepts that Nishi describes as rationing time and rationing capacity.“Although lockdown and safer at home policies have been shown to be effective in lowering the number of cases and deaths due to COVID-19, governments in many countries are confronted by significant political, economic and social pressure to reopen their economies,” Nishi said. “This research p rovides a basis for real-world policies that — if strictly managed and maintained — could accomplish that goal, while keeping people as safe as possible.”The research is published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.The team used simulations for the numbers of people who would be susceptible or exposed to the virus, infectious or recovered — what the researchers call an SEIR model — to determine the likely effects of various strategies.“In the simulations, we assumed that people engaged in group activities in multiple sectors, including going to work o...
Source: UCLA Newsroom: Health Sciences - Category: Universities & Medical Training Source Type: news