Head and Neck Cancer Risk Prediction Models for the US Population from the INHANCE Consortium.

Head and Neck Cancer Risk Prediction Models for the US Population from the INHANCE Consortium. Am J Epidemiol. 2019 Nov 29;: Authors: Lee YA, Al-Temimi M, Ying J, Muscat J, Olshan AF, Zevallos JP, Winn DM, Li G, Sturgis EM, Morgenstern H, Zhang ZF, Smith E, Kelsey K, McClean M, Vaughan TL, Lazarus P, Chen C, Schwartz SM, Gillison M, Schantz S, Yu GP, D'Souza G, Gross N, Monroe M, Kim J, Boffetta P, Hashibe M Abstract Head and neck cancer (HNC) risk prediction models based on risk factor profiles have not yet been developed. We took advantage of the large database including 14 studies (1981-2010) in the US from the International Head and Neck Cancer Epidemiology (INHANCE) Consortium to develop risk prediction models. Seventy percent of the data were used to develop HNC risk prediction models; the remaining 30% were used to validate the models. We used competing risk models to calculate absolute risks. The predictors included age, sex, education, race/ethnicity, alcohol drinking intensity, cigarette smoking duration and intensity or family history of HNC. The 20-year absolute HNC risk was 7.61% for a 60-year-old woman who smoked >20 cigarettes/day for >20 years, drank 3+ alcoholic drinks/day, was a high school graduate, with family history of HNC and was non-Hispanic White. The 20-year risk for men with a similar profile was 6.85%. The absolute risks of oropharyngeal and hypopharyngeal cancers were generally lower than those of o...
Source: Am J Epidemiol - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Tags: Am J Epidemiol Source Type: research