Long-term dynamics of measles in London: Titrating the impact of wars, the 1918 pandemic, and vaccination

by Alexander D. Becker, Amy Wesolowski, Ottar N. Bj ørnstad, Bryan T. Grenfell A key question in ecology is the relative impact of internal nonlinear dynamics and external perturbations on the long-term trajectories of natural systems. Measles has been analyzed extensively as a paradigm for consumer-resource dynamics due to the oscillatory nature of the host-pathogen life cy cle, the abundance of rich data to test theory, and public health relevance. The dynamics of measles in London, in particular, has acted as a prototypical test bed for such analysis using incidence data from the pre-vaccination era (1944–1967). However, during this timeframe there were few externa l large-scale perturbations, limiting an assessment of the relative impact of internal and extra demographic perturbations to the host population. Here, we extended the previous London analyses to include nearly a century of data that also contains four major demographic changes: the First and Secon d World Wars, the 1918 influenza pandemic, and the start of a measles mass vaccination program. By combining mortality and incidence data using particle filtering methods, we show that a simple stochastic epidemic model, with minimal historical specifications, can capture the nearly 100 years of dyn amics including changes caused by each of the major perturbations. We show that the majority of dynamic changes are explainable by the internal nonlinear dynamics of the system, tuned by demographic changes....
Source: PLoS Computational Biology - Category: Biology Authors: Source Type: research

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The incidence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) has reached pandemic proportions across the world. Critical limb ischemia (CLI) in the CKD patient is a huge clinical challenge often culminating in major amputation or mortality. Endovascular revascularization is sometimes not feasible because of potential contrast agent-induced damage to the residual renal function, whereas heavy calcification may limit the success of such interventions. Surgical revascularization in these patients also carries added challenges and risks with seemingly poor outcomes in terms of limb salvage.
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Source: Research in Veterinary Science - Category: Veterinary Research Source Type: research
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Source: NYT Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: your-feed-science Source Type: news
[The Conversation Africa] The theme for World Health Day in 1995 was "Target 2000 -- A World Without Polio". I delivered a lecture titled "Polio Eradication Race: Will Nigeria Finish Last?" to mark the occasion. Finishing last seemed likely because in the 1990s Nigeria's routine immunisation rates were in the 30%-40% range for all vaccine preventable diseases. Countries in Southern and East Africa that had eradicated polio had coverage in the 80%-90% range.
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Source: Clinical and Developmental Immunology - Category: Allergy & Immunology Authors: Tags: Clin Exp Immunol Source Type: research
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Source: Endocrine, Metabolic and Immune Disorders Drug Targets - Category: Drugs & Pharmacology Tags: Endocr Metab Immune Disord Drug Targets Source Type: research
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Source: Seizure - Category: Neurology Source Type: research
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