Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak
The objective of this study was to evaluate a predictive model of West Nile virus in South Dakota (SD), which was used to make whole-year forecasts at the beginning of the 2016 WNV season, as well as short-term weekly forecasts throughout the season. This modeling approach was unique in that it incorporated not only weather data but also WNV infection data to predict spatial and temporal patterns of WNV cases. Because the model was specified and parameterized prior to the start of the 2016 WNV season, this exercise provided an opportunity to make a priori predictions and then validate them using independent data. The model...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - May 23, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Justin K. Davis Source Type: research
No Evidence of On-farm Circulation of Avian Influenza H5 Subtype in Ca Mau Province, Southern Vietnam, March 2016 – January 2017
Discussion
The vast majority of Vietnam’s poultry sector is still smallholder poultry, with more than 96% of poultry-owning households holding fewer than 100 chickens15 and more than 93% of poultry-owning households holding fewer than 100 ducks16. Outbreaks of avian influenza on poultry farms are common and have been recorded every year in Vietnam1,17 since the re-emergence in 2002 and 2003 of highly-pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 genotypes in Asia18,19. Live poultry sales in Vietnam take place in a large informal system of household sales and wet markets, with some markets occupying the place of a central town/city mar...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - May 5, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: maciekboni Source Type: research
Rapid Assessment Zika Virus Knowledge Among Clinical Specialists in Singapore: A Cross-sectional Survey
We report the results of a rapid assessment of Zika virus awareness among key clinical specialties in Singapore, with the aim of identifying gaps in knowledge and opportunities for improving communication on Zika virus disease management and control policies.
Methods
Study Participants and Sites
Between June 6 and June 19, 2016 prior to the Zika virus outbreak, we conducted an online survey of doctors working in obstetrics and gynaecology, neonatology and paediatrics in Singapore. A link to the online survey was disseminated by email to the relevant doctors at KK women’s and Children’s Hospital and Singapore Gen...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - May 3, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: YCF Source Type: research
Spatial Determinants of Ebola Virus Disease Risk for the West African Epidemic
In this study, we sought to identify environmental and population-level demographic spatial predictors of human EVD risk from the recent West African epidemic.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
Study area
The study included the three West African countries with widespread EVD transmission: Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. Guinea has an estimated population of 11,780,00025 and covers an area of 245,860 km2 including terrain consisting of costal mangrove plains, forested highlands, and savannah plains.26 Guinea has a tropical climate with a rainy season (April to October) and a dry season (November to March).25 Liberia h...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - March 31, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: kzinszer Source Type: research
Vaccine Hesitancy: In Search of the Risk Communication Comfort Zone
Conclusions
There are some limitations to this study worth noting. First, although the online panel used for our survey is constructed to be representative of the Canadian population in terms of age, region of residence, income and education, selection bias and non-response bias cannot be ruled out. However, the sociodemographic characteristics of our respondents are not significantly different from those of the Canadian population of parents with children aged 5 and younger. Second, the MMR vaccination decision for the child was self-reported by parents which could lead to recall bias, and there was no other measure withi...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - March 3, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Joshua Greenberg Source Type: research
Correction: Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit
Correction
The author’s name is incorrect. The correct name is: RSV Nosocomial Outbreak Investigation Team. The correct citation is: RSV Nosocomial Outbreak Investigation Team. Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 19. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3bc85b2a508d205ecc4a5534ecb1f9be.
References
RSV Outbreak Investigation Team. Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 19. Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbre...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 27, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: ploscurrents Source Type: research
Does Zika Virus Cause Microcephaly – Applying the Bradford Hill Viewpoints
This study included more recent evidence compared to the previous one.
The Bradford-Hill Viewpoints are used in public health to determine causation of diseases.11 Systematic application of the viewpoints can assist with analysing a possible causal relationship. Additional studies to assess the risk of microcephaly in affected pregnant mothers are ongoing.12 In this study we applied the Bradford-Hill viewpoints to investigate the association between Zika virus and Microcephaly.
Method
Using the Bradford Hills nine viewpoints we analysed data from a 2013 outbreak in French Polynesia and the 2015 Brazilian outbreak to est...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 22, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: asma Source Type: research
[OBK-17-0008] Does Zika Virus Cause Microcephaly – Applying the Bradford Hill Viewpoints
This study included more recent evidence compared to the previous one.
The Bradford-Hill Viewpoints are used in public health to determine causation of diseases.11 Systematic application of the viewpoints can assist with analysing a possible causal relationship. Additional studies to assess the risk of microcephaly in affected pregnant mothers are ongoing.12 In this study we applied the Bradford-Hill viewpoints to investigate the association between Zika virus and Microcephaly.
Method
Using the Bradford Hills nine viewpoints we analysed data from a 2013 outbreak in French Polynesia and the 2015 Brazilian outbreak to est...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 22, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: asma Source Type: research
First Report of the East-Central South African Genotype of Chikungunya Virus in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
Conclusions
CHIKV has been responsible for important emerging and reemerging epidemics characterized by severe and incapacitating polyarthralgia syndrome 8,22. Due to the intense movement of viremic travelers arising from Africa, India and Indian Ocean islands, many imported cases of the disease were reported on American, European and Asian countries since 2006 11,13.
The high vector density, the presence of susceptible individuals and the intense movement of people has characterized Brazil as a country of major risk for the occurrence of epidemics by arboviruses. After its introduction, CHIKV has caused outbreaks in man...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 14, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: thiara.souza at ioc.fiocruz.br Source Type: research
Characterization of Clostridium Baratii Type F Strains Responsible for an Outbreak of Botulism Linked to Beef Meat Consumption in France
DISCUSSION
C. baratii producing BoNT/F was first identified in an infant botulism case from New Mexico (USA) in 1980 8. Then, several cases of C. baratii type F botulism have been reported in babies, mainly in the U.S. 25,26,28. C. baratii was also recognized as responsible for botulism in adults 14,26,27. However, food borne botulism outbreaks linked to C. baratii type F are rare, approximately 1.1 % of the botulism cases in the U.S. from 1981 to 2011 2,7. Most of the food borne botulism outbreaks linked to C. baratii F were reported in the U.S. One C. baratii outbreak was described in 5 adults in Spain in 2011 35. The fi...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 1, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Michel Popoff Source Type: research
Aedes aegypti Control Through Modernized, Integrated Vector Management
Discussion
In the wake of the largest Zika virus outbreak in history, there have been calls for a paradigm shift towards a more modern strategy for controlling vectors.6,24 Several novel A. aegypti control methods, namely SIT, RIDL and the release of Wolbachia-infected mosquitoes, have recently been endorsed by the WHO for use in the containment of the ongoing Zika virus outbreak.17 The current study sought to provide an initial, comparative assessment of these tools as well as to strategize their use as part of a modernized, integrated vector management programme.
In simulating a release schedule designed to emulate tho...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 30, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Laith Yakob Source Type: research
Rapid Molecular Detection of Zika Virus in Acute-Phase Urine Samples Using the Recombinase Polymerase Amplification Assay
Conclusions
To our knowledge, the developed RT-RPA assay is the first sensitive rapid molecular assay applied on field samples for the detection of ZIKV in 15 minutes, which could be implemented at the point of need in a mobile suitcase laboratory 5 to make testing of pregnant women available directly in rural settings. Moreover, combining it with the developed dengue 6, chikungunya 7 and Sigma 8 RT-RPA assays will allow its use during outbreak investigations. Sigma virus infects exclusively dipterans, which is a good candidate to be used in the future as an extraction and RPA reaction control.
Data Availability Statement...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 25, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: abdelwahed Source Type: research
Strategic Interactions in Antiviral Drug Use During an Influenza Pandemic
Conclusion
The model shows how a wide range of outcomes are possible depending on epidemiological, geographical, and perceptual factors in the populations. Externalities caused by travel connections when drug-resistant mutants do not suffer a reduced transmission have the potential to lead both jurisdictions to socially suboptimal states of excessive antiviral drug use. Strategic interactions between jurisdictions during an influenza pandemic should be further studied.
List of abbreviations
L: treat at a low rate
H: treat at a high rate
l: low payoff
m: medium payoff
h: high payoff
WHO: World Health Organization...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 12, 2017 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Kamal Jnawali Source Type: research
Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia
Conclusions
Zika is a significant global public health issue. We demonstrate that, based on an average infectious period of 5.5 days17,18, Zika virus transmission by vector mosquitoes could have occurred in Cairns, Townsville and Rockhampton during the warmer months in 2015 and 2016, with Brisbane unsuitable for transmission. However, this changes when we take a lower epidemic potential threshold, based on a longer infectious period. Except for Brisbane where the vector is not yet established, these results are consistent with the epidemic potential of dengue virus in Cairns and Townsville.
While estimates are preliminar...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 13, 2016 Category: Epidemiology Authors: viennet Source Type: research
Social Media as a Sentinel for Disease Surveillance: What Does Sociodemographic Status Have to Do with It?
DISCUSSION
Real-time reports of dengue on social media can potentially be used to augment disease response time; resulting in quicker control efforts and mitigation of disease spread. Although the majority of tweets are suspected cases, laboratory confirmed cases are also reported and real-time reports provide timely updates for situational awareness14, which is necessary due to weekly or monthly delays in dengue case reporting in Brazil and other endemic regions.
Inequality and low mean per capita income have been associated with dengue mortality in Brazil15. Furthermore, males, and people older than 69 years had a high...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 7, 2016 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Elaine O. Nsoesie Source Type: research
