Measles Vaccination Coverage Survey in Moba, Katanga, Democratic Republic of Congo, 2013: Need to Adapt Routine and Mass Vaccination Campaigns to Reach the Unreached
Conclusions
We estimated 87% coverage of the MVC in response to the measles outbreak in Moba territory. This coverage may be insufficient to prevent future outbreaks. Lack of a EPI vaccination and lack of accessibility by road were associated with lower MVC campaign coverage. Absence during the MVC and EPI vaccination were the main reasons for non-vaccination. On the basis of these conclusions, we recommend more accessible vaccination sites for each village in order to improve vaccination coverage during EPI and MVCs. We recommend improved social mobilization of the population through extended vaccination time in less acce...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - February 2, 2015 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Julita Gil Cuesta Source Type: research
A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing
Conclusions
We have developed a model of Ebola epidemics in West Africa that focuses attention on the elements of public health policies for containment of these epidemics. Our simulations for Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea fit the cumulative reported cases for these countries up to September 23, 2014, and project future epidemic levels forward from September 23, 2014 (based on various parameterizations corresponding to these elements). Our projections indicate that the most important elements for containment of the epidemics within a relatively short time span are that
infectious cases (independent of contact tracin...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 30, 2015 Category: Epidemiology Authors: glenn.f.webb at vanderbilt.edu Source Type: research
Projected Treatment Capacity Needs in Sierra Leone
Conclusion
The largest outbreak of EVD in history is ongoing in Sierra Leone, with no indications as of 2014-12-04 that incidence is decreasing. Although concerted effort is being made by local authorities and the international community to stop transmission, current treatment and isolation facilities are insufficient. If the outbreak continues to spread, the response will be further complicated as the number of cases will overwhelm planned interventions. ETCs may not be flexible enough to accommodate the changing epidemiology of the outbreak and the number of international staff required to run sufficient facilities will ...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 30, 2015 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Richard White Source Type: research
Global Climate Anomalies and Potential Infectious Disease Risks: 2014-2015
Conclusions
Based on current global climate anomaly conditions and forecasts, El Niño is likely to develop during late 2014 and persist into early 2015. The expected effects on regional weather patterns include persistent high temperatures and drought in some areas, and heavy rainfall and flooding in others. This may enhance populations of particular vectors and the transmission of various infectious diseases in human and animal populations.
Although local weather conditions mediate part of ENSO’s influence on infectious disease transmission (“teleconnections”), incorporating ENSO indicators into disease risk predic...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 26, 2015 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Jean-Paul Chretien Source Type: research
The Western Africa Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Exhibits Both Global Exponential and Local Polynomial Growth Rates
Discussion
We have shown that the cumulative number of EVD cases in a number of administrative areas of Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia is best approximated by polynomial rather than exponential growth over several generations of EVD. This pattern is also true of the initial diffusion of the West African EVD epidemic, particularly in Gueckedou district, Guinea, where a super-spreading event linked to burial rituals facilitated onward transmission in December 2013. Transmission progressed unchecked for several generations in Gueckedou, as the World Health Organization did not receive notification of the outbreak until Marc...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - January 21, 2015 Category: Epidemiology Authors: gerardochowell Source Type: research
Sequential Outbreaks Due to a New Strain of Neisseria Meningitidis Serogroup C in Northern Nigeria, 2013-14
Conclusions and Recommendations
NmC outbreaks have emerged in northwest Nigeria in the past 2 years, and there is some evidence of serogroup replacement in the meningitis belt following recent mass vaccination with NmA conjugate vaccine. Meningitis case surveillance systems, for both serogroup and strain, should continue to be strengthened in this region to allow for early identification and proper control (such as vaccination for the appropriate serogroup) of outbreaks. If NmC outbreaks become more widespread in northern Nigeria or adjacent regions in the coming years, large-scale preventative action may be required; a ke...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 29, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: anna.louise.funk at gmail.com Source Type: research
Ebola and Indirect Effects on Health Service Function in Sierra Leone
This study was carried out to provide data and guidance for agencies providing health care in Sierra Leone. The study was done in collaboration between the Ministry of Health and Sanitation in Sierra Leone, Karolinska Institutet in Sweden, Norwegian University of Science and Technology and the Non Governmental Organization CapaCare, as part of a new surveillance initiative to monitor effects of the Ebola epidemic on health services. The director of research and Non-Communicable diseases (MS) and the Director of Laboratory and Hospitals (DB-T) of the Ministry of Health and Sanitation both approved the study. Since September...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 19, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Håkon Angell Bolkan Source Type: research
Estimation of MERS-Coronavirus Reproductive Number and Case Fatality Rate for the Spring 2014 Saudi Arabia Outbreak: Insights from Publicly Available Data
Discussion
Understanding the epidemiological attributes of a novel, emerging infectious disease allows clinicians and public health practitioners to implement efficient, effective disease control interventions that reduce the size and impact of an outbreak or epidemic. However, rapid study of an infectious disease is always difficult, and even more so in an environment where geographic, jurisdictional, informational or political factors make population-based research challenging. While the occurrence of MERS-CoV infection in humans has now apparently been occurring for over two years, high-quality epidemiological analyses ...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 18, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: dfisman Source Type: research
Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia
Conclusion
Based on two alternate models for the spread of Ebola, either via direct travel from West Africa or through spread to secondary sources, we conclude that under existing conditions it is possible that a case of Ebola will enter Australia within the first six months of 2015, with a probability of entry of 0.34 by 1 July 2015 under the baseline direct travel scenario. Reduced traffic due to new government visa restrictions will decrease the probability of this occurring. Comparison between data from 17 October 2014 and 3 December 2014 suggests that control measures within this period have had a positive impact, res...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - December 10, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Robert C. Cope Source Type: research
Estimating Potential Incidence of MERS-CoV Associated with Hajj Pilgrims to Saudi Arabia, 2014
We report the expected number of pilgrims developing symptoms during the Hajj under each scenario, including KSA citizens infected before attending.
Fig. 3: Illustration of transformation of age specific MERS-CoV incidence in the general population of the Makkah region to incidence in foreign pilgrims to the Hajj.
Here we show the population of Makkah, MERS cases occurring in the first 27 weeks of 2014, expected number of foreign pilgrims, and expected number of cases in foreign pilgrims. Hajj pilgrims are at risk for two weeks; hence, for each age category, C, the expected incidence in Hajj pilgrims (without onward tr...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 24, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: jlessler Source Type: research
Projected Impact of Vaccination Timing and Dose Availability on the Course of the 2014 West African Ebola Epidemic
Discussion
While trials of vaccine for Ebola virus are ongoing, and consequently the estimates presented above are imprecise, our analysis offers four important qualitative results regarding vaccination as a tool for the control of the Ebola epidemic that may be helpful to manufacturers, governments, and health organizations:
We estimate that current non-vaccine interventions are reducing the reproductive number of Ebola in West Africa, even in the absence of large numbers of immune individuals. The final size of this epidemic is projected to be ~ 1% of the regional population. This means that reductions in reproductive...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 21, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: dfisman Source Type: research
Is West Africa Approaching a Catastrophic Phase or is the 2014 Ebola Epidemic Slowing Down? Different Models Yield Different Answers for Liberia
Conclusion
Predicting the final epidemic size of an ongoing epidemic is never an easy task. Here we show that simple phenomenological models can be used along traditional mechanistic transmission models to check the validity of predictions when observations are few, and capture rapid changes in transmission intensity during an epidemic. Our results suggest the need to model the total effective susceptible population size as a dynamic variable instead of a fixed quantity, which may be particularly important for the on-going EBOV outbreak. In the case of the EBOV epidemic in Liberia, our forecasting results based on the logi...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 20, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: gerardochowell Source Type: research
A Three-Scale Network Model for the Early Growth Dynamics of 2014 West Africa Ebola Epidemic
Conclusions
Our model demonstrates that sub-exponential growth is a possible long-term trend if community mixing is limited, and provides predictions on how changes in transmission rates will result in decreases in the growth of the epidemic. Our results suggest that limiting community mixing over this scale would be an important consideration while designing epidemic control strategies. Community mixing sizes consistent with model fits of the data are quite small, with 100 to 1000 individuals. It is especially important to prevent the seeding of the outbreak into new communities, as the diffusion of transmission chains i...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 13, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Maria Kiskowski Source Type: research
The UCSC Ebola Genome Portal
Discussion
Given the exponential growth rate of the virus and the mobility of the human population, the current Ebola virus outbreak may not be not contained until late 2015. Today’s research efforts may provide some help in managing this outbreak; therefore, anything that can be done to encourage Ebola research and data-sharing seems prudent. To this end we hope the UCSC Ebola Portal and Genome Browser will be a useful tool for researchers. Suggestions for additional tracks and general feedback may be sent to the UCSC Genome Browser public mailing list at genome@soe.ucsc.edu. (Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks)
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 7, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Maximilian Haeussler Source Type: research
Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia
This study attempts to address whether or not aggressive interventions could arrest, or at least mitigate, the epidemic.
Our findings suggest that, for at least in the near term, some form of coordinated intervention is imperative. The forecasts for both Liberia and Sierra Leone in the absence of any major effort to contain the epidemic paint a bleak picture of its future progress, which suggests that we are in the opening phase of the epidemic, rather than near its peak. These findings are in line with predictions from other models which, despite using different methods and different data sources, have all estimated simil...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 6, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Eric Lofgren Source Type: research
