Estimation of Pneumonic Plague Transmission in Madagascar, August –November 2017
Discussion Between August and November 2017, Madagascar reported nearly 2500 suspected, probable, and confirmed cases of plague 1. Though plague is endemic in the island country, the annual total is typically about 400 – primarily bubonic – cases 2. Only 15% of cases associated with the August–November 2017 outbreak were bubonic, and an unusually large fraction of pneumonic (pulmonary) plague, which can be spread from person-person, resulted in early exponential growth 1. Given the atypical size and spread of the outbreak, concerns regarding the adequacy of existing interventions for the remainder of the plague seaso...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 1, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Maimuna S. Majumder Source Type: research

Real Time Forecasting of Measles Using Generation-dependent Mathematical Model in Japan, 2018
In conclusion, we demonstrated a simple generation-dependent model that was able to adequately capture an observed transmission pattern of the measles outbreak in Japan, 2018. The proposed model also helped predict the future incidence and evaluate public health control measures. Polishing the forecasting model further, we can achieve an eventual routine forecast and evaluation the outbreaks while maintaining the model structure as simple as possible. Competing Interests The authors declare no competing interests. Data Availability The code snippets used for simulations and generation of figures as well as the epidemiolo...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - October 15, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Andrei R. Akhmetzhanov Source Type: research

Correction: Measuring Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability in Myanmar and Implications for Local Zika Virus Transmission
Correction The authors are listed out of order. Please view the correct author order, affiliations, and citation here: Pablo Noel Perez-Guzman1,2, Uri Obolski3, Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara4, Maricelia M. de Lima4, Elizabeth A. Ashley5,6, Frank Smithuis5,6,7, Peter Horby7, Richard J. Maude6,7,8,9, Zaw Lin10, Aye Mon Mon Kyaw10, José Lourenço3 1 Department of Global Health and Tropical Medicine, University of Oxford, UK; 2 Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College, London, UK; 3 Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, UK; 4 Laboratory of Haematology, Genetics and Computational Biology, FIOCR...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - October 10, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: ploscurrents Source Type: research

Measuring Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability in Myanmar and Implications for Local Zika Virus Transmission
In this study, we were able to demonstrate that our measure for mosquito-borne viral suitability is informative in the context of Myanmar, despite the lack of ento-epidemiological datasets with high spatio-temporal resolution. By estimating suitability through climate variables and known ento-epidemiological parameters, we were able to project mosquito-born virus (MBV) suitability at the district level, a resolution for which epidemiological data and mosquito abundance measures are not generally available. Here, we discuss the national and subnational public health and control implications for MBVs in the context of our pr...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - September 28, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: jose.lourenco at zoo.ox.ac.uk Source Type: research

Recent Trends in Unpasteurized Fluid Milk Outbreaks, Legalization, and Consumption in the United States
Conclusions From a public health perspective, the lack of consistency and comprehensiveness in measuring production or consumption of unpasteurized milk is problematic; however, this analysis provides a current best estimate of the scale of disease outbreaks due to unpasteurized milk. The potential for foodborne illness continues to be a small but real risk from consuming unpasteurized fluid milk, but analysis of data over a twelve year period demonstrates that increased access to this product within the United States has not led to increased outbreak rates. On the contrary, total reported unpasteurized milk-associated out...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - September 13, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Joanne Source Type: research

Information Circulation in times of Ebola: Twitter and the Sexual Transmission of Ebola by Survivors
Conclusion This article increases our knowledge of the relationship between Twitter and traditional media in times of epidemics. In contrast to previous studies that underlined how users rely on Twitter for sharing information from mainstream media (such as 1,2,3), our study shows that tweets combine information dissemination with emotional stances and critical views, leading to a new or greatly increased debate about a subject that was treated as insignificant by other media. In that sense, Twitter acts mostly as a filter of information as well as a space where it is reconstructed. In the “Twittersphere,” the issue of...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - August 28, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: cmorin Source Type: research

Tracing Back the Source of an Outbreak of Salmonella Typhimurium; National Outbreak Linked to the Consumption of Raw and Undercooked Beef Products, the Netherlands, October to December 2015
In conclusion, this outbreak investigation highlighted the importance of close collaboration between regional Public Health Services, the NVWA, the RIVM and diagnostic laboratories. Through a combined microbiological, epidemiological and source tracing approach, raw and undercooked beef products could be identified as the source of the S. Typhimurium outbreak. This outbreak yet again emphasizes the importance of awareness among consumers of the risk of infection when consuming or handling raw meat products. To increase transparency for consumers, we recommend adding warning labels to risk food products. Competing Inter...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - August 16, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Ingrid Friesema Source Type: research

The 2015 Outbreak of Severe Influenza in Kashmir, North India: Emergence of a New Clade of A/H1n1 Influenza Virus
In conclusion our data demonstrates that A/H1N1 continues to evolve and in the outbreak of 2015 in Kashmir, there was emergence of clade 6B.1 of A/H1N1 which continues to circulate as the dominant strain of seasonal A/H1N1 influenza. Our data emphasize the importance of continued surveillance from wider areas of the country to keep tracking any antigenic changes that would dictate change in the vaccine strain for influenza infection. Competing Interests The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Data Availability Statement The data has been uploaded into the public repository, with the DOI as: 10.6084/m...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - August 8, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: parvaizkoul Source Type: research

The 2015 Outbreak of Severe Influenza in Kashmir, North India: Emergence of a New Clade of A/H1n1 Influenza Virus
In conclusion our data demonstrates that A/H1N1 continues to evolve and in the outbreak of 2015 in Kashmir, there was emergence of clade 6B.1 of A/H1N1 which continues to circulate as the dominant strain of seasonal A/H1N1 influenza. Our data emphasize the importance of continued surveillance from wider areas of the country to keep tracking any antigenic changes that would dictate change in the vaccine strain for influenza infection. Competing Interests The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. Data Availability Statement The data has been uploaded into the public repository, with the DOI as: 10.6084/m...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - August 8, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: parvaizkoul Source Type: research

The 2016-2017 Chikungunya Outbreak in Karachi
Conclusion This study confirmed that the current outbreak in Karachi during Dec 2016-Feb 2017 is of Chikungunya Virus and may appeared in more frequent outbreaks of CHKV in near future as of dengue in Pakistan. We recommend surveillance for CHKV, its vectors and preparedness to prevent future outbreaks of CHKV infection in Pakistan. Corresponding Author Dr. Nadia Jamil is the corresponding author for this article. Email: diaraj@hotmail.com Data Availability Statement The raw data required to reproduce these findings are available to download from the following Figshare link: https://figshare.com/articles/Probes_and_Pri...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - August 7, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: darakhshan.guhar at yahoo.com Source Type: research

Identifying Areas at Greatest Risk for Recent Zika Virus Importation — New York City, 2016
In this study, we used logistic regression15 to predict weekly nowcasts16 throughout the summer of 2016 of census tracts at greatest risk of recent ZIKV importation. Nowcast results were used to inform geographically targeted activities, including performing public education, enrolling additional healthcare facilities in a sentinel surveillance system for detecting local ZIKV transmission, interpreting syndromic surveillance signals suggesting possible ZIKV-like illness, and, when reviewed in conjunction with mosquito surveillance data, informing control of Aedes spp. mosquitoes and placement of traps for continued surveil...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - July 25, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: skgreene Source Type: research

Lessons Learnt from Epidemiological Investigation of Lassa Fever Outbreak in a Southwest State of Nigeria December 2015 to April 2016
Conclusion Finally, the main limitation of this investigation was our inability to conduct a risk factor survey to identify factors associated with the cause of the outbreak. However, the strong collaboration among partners as well as the incident management approach to the outbreak was a key to the control and containment of the outbreak. One key lesson learnt from the investigation was that the confirmed cases were mainly primary cases; hence the need to focus on measures of breaking the chain of transmission in the animal-man interphase in LFs epidemic preparedness and response. In addition, the high case fatality rat...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - June 29, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: ELVIS EFE ISERE Source Type: research

Correction: Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit
Correction The author group name is incorrect. The correct name is: RSV Nosocomial Outbreak Team. The correct citation is: RSV Nosocomial Outbreak Team*. Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 19 . Edition 1. Reference 1. RSV Outbreak Investigation Team *. Contributing and Terminating Factors of a Large RSV Outbreak in an Adult Hematology and Transplant Unit. PLOS Currents Outbreaks. 2014 Sep 19 . Edition 1. doi: 10.1371/currents.outbreaks.3bc85b2a508d205ecc4a5534ecb1f9be. (Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks)
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - June 27, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: ploscurrents Source Type: research

PLOS Currents: Outbreaks
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Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - June 4, 2018 Category: Epidemiology Authors: tpolischuk Tags: carousel Source Type: research