Measuring Mosquito-borne Viral Suitability in Myanmar and Implications for Local Zika Virus Transmission

In this study, we were able to demonstrate that our measure for mosquito-borne viral suitability is informative in the context of Myanmar, despite the lack of ento-epidemiological datasets with high spatio-temporal resolution. By estimating suitability through climate variables and known ento-epidemiological parameters, we were able to project mosquito-born virus (MBV) suitability at the district level, a resolution for which epidemiological data and mosquito abundance measures are not generally available. Here, we discuss the national and subnational public health and control implications for MBVs in the context of our projections. At both the national and subnational levels, the wet season (Jun – Oct) was estimated to have the highest potential for MBVs transmission, in accordance with reported epidemiological time series. Since this was observed across Myanmar, it suggests that the epidemic potential of each district peaks during this period independently of their spatial location. In contrast, the hot and dry season (Mar – May) presented the lowest potential, also consistently across Myanmar, in accordance with what are known to be less favourable climate conditions for the vector. We therefore argue that in Myanmar, adequate surveillance and health care delivery resources should be fully operational by the end of the hot and dry season (May), in anticipation for the increase in MBVs case counts that is likely to occur in the following months. A similar argum...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research

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