Conservancy of mAb Epitopes in Ebolavirus Glycoproteins of Previous and 2014 Outbreaks
Conclusion
The presented analysis of mAb epitopes is novel in respect to a complete conservancy analysis spanning all Ebola virus lineages since 1976 until now and considers the GP protein not only at the sequence but also the structural level as several of the epitopes are conformational. Our two main findings from the analysis are the following: (1) among 6 epitopes targeted by different mAb cocktails only one seems to be significantly different in the current outbreak compared to the earlier ones; and (2) the conformational epitope of GP2 targeted by multiple mAbs includes a region that is not well conserved among the d...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 3, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: jpon Source Type: research
Inference and Forecast of the Current West African Ebola Outbreak in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia
Discussion
Estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the current West African Ebola outbreak is challenging, as data are limited and a full understanding of spatial-temporal complexity of Ebola transmission dynamics in the region is still lacking. Findings with our simple SEIRX model suggest that growth of Ebola in West Africa may have slowed in Liberia but continues to rise in concert with earlier prediction for Guinea and Sierra Leone. Within these countries, differences in R0(t) may manifest but can be compensated for by adjustment of the mean infectious period. As all parameters are estimated simultaneously, suc...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - October 31, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: jls106 Source Type: research
Internet and Free Press Are Associated with Reduced Lags in Global Outbreak Reporting
Conclusion
The Internet’s ability to facilitate syndromic surveillance19 , communicate eyewitness accounts11, and provide unofficial reports that supplement traditional public health approaches to monitoring evolving events20,21 reveals a unique role the general population can play in outbreak risk reduction22. Health officials are quickly becoming aware of the value of publicly generated digital disease surveillance.
In places with regulated Internet and controlled press, there is the potential for misleading propaganda that obfuscates public reporting of emerging diseases. This interplay between the ability to communic...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - October 30, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: lm12 Source Type: research
Short-term Prediction of the Incidence of Congenital Rubella Syndrome
In this study, we predicted the number of CRS cases with a formulation based on the parameters from two studies from the U.K. and the U.S. in 2013 and up to week 25, 2014. We found an increase of CRS cases following the rubella epidemic with a lag of 5-7 months, which was almost in agreement with a previous experience in Greece 4 . A close correlation was found between the predicted cumulative number of CRS cases in 2013 and the actual cumulative number of reported CRS cases, validating the present method of CRS prediction (Figure 3). The ex post evaluation generated two different patterns of the predicted number of CRS ca...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - October 30, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: yasushiohkusa Source Type: research
