Assessment of the Risk of Ebola Importation to Australia

Conclusion Based on two alternate models for the spread of Ebola, either via direct travel from West Africa or through spread to secondary sources, we conclude that under existing conditions it is possible that a case of Ebola will enter Australia within the first six months of 2015, with a probability of entry of 0.34 by 1 July 2015 under the baseline direct travel scenario. Reduced traffic due to new government visa restrictions will decrease the probability of this occurring. Comparison between data from 17 October 2014 and 3 December 2014 suggests that control measures within this period have had a positive impact, resulting in reduced risk of importation into Australia. Further control of existing outbreaks within West Africa, and in any further outbreaks in secondary locations, would provide the strongest decrease in risk to Australia. Medical professionals and policy makers should be prepared for the possible entry of an Ebola case into Australia, and continue to undertake public health research and supply aid in an effort to effectively reduce proliferation of Ebola in existing outbreaks.
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research