A Model of the 2014 Ebola Epidemic in West Africa with Contact Tracing

Conclusions We have developed a model of Ebola epidemics in West Africa that focuses attention on the elements of public health policies for containment of these epidemics. Our simulations for Sierra Leone, Liberia, and Guinea fit the cumulative reported cases for these countries up to September 23, 2014, and project future epidemic levels forward from September 23, 2014 (based on various parameterizations corresponding to these elements). Our projections indicate that the most important elements for containment of the epidemics within a relatively short time span are that infectious cases (independent of contact tracing) are efficiently reported and isolated, with the average time between the appearance of symptoms and isolation less than 3 days (); contact traced incubating infected cases are efficiently monitored, with average probability of compliance, with isolation upon appearance of symptoms (such that no new cases are caused by individual), greater than 0.5 (). Also of importance in mitigation of the epidemics is a reduced rate at which infected deceased are improperly handled (), a sufficient number of contacts traced per identified infectious individual (). The model allows quantification of the parameters corresponding to public health controls () for evaluating the impact of public health policies for the evolution of these epidemics.
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research