Modeling the Impact of Interventions on an Epidemic of Ebola in Sierra Leone and Liberia

This study attempts to address whether or not aggressive interventions could arrest, or at least mitigate, the epidemic.
Our findings suggest that, for at least in the near term, some form of coordinated intervention is imperative. The forecasts for both Liberia and Sierra Leone in the absence of any major effort to contain the epidemic paint a bleak picture of its future progress, which suggests that we are in the opening phase of the epidemic, rather than near its peak. These findings are in line with predictions from other models which, despite using different methods and different data sources, have all estimated similar basic reproductive numbers, and forecast that the epidemic is currently beyond the point where it can be easily controlled9,15,16.
Of the modeled interventions applied to the epidemic, the most effective by far is a combined strategy of intensifying contact tracing to remove infected individuals from the general population and placing them in a setting that can provide both isolation and dedicated care. This intervention requires that clinics have the necessary supplies, training and personnel to follow infection control practices. Although both of these interventions in isolation also have an impact on the epidemic, they are much more effective in parallel. In particular, the slight increase in cases in Sierra Leone at the lower end of the modeled contact tracing range, when unaccompanied by a concordant increase in infection control, highlights the nece...

Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - November 6, 2014 Category: Epidemiology Authors: Eric Lofgren Source Type: research