Integrating Environmental Monitoring and Mosquito Surveillance to Predict Vector-borne Disease: Prospective Forecasts of a West Nile Virus Outbreak
The objective of this study was to evaluate a predictive model of West Nile virus in South Dakota (SD), which was used to make whole-year forecasts at the beginning of the 2016 WNV season, as well as short-term weekly forecasts throughout the season. This modeling approach was unique in that it incorporated not only weather data but also WNV infection data to predict spatial and temporal patterns of WNV cases. Because the model was specified and parameterized prior to the start of the 2016 WNV season, this exercise provided an opportunity to make a priori predictions and then validate them using independent data. The model’s estimates were generally accurate for 2004-2015, as were its predictions for the 2016 WNV season. In particular, warmer weather in early 2016 indicated that the WNV season would begin earlier than usual, and high mosquito infection rates detected early in the WNV season provided further evidence to support predictions of a high WNV human case burden. Materials and Methods Data sources Human case data: Records for 1,249 human WNV cases from 2004 to 2015 were provided by the South Dakota Department of Health (SDDOH). While there were 1,076 human cases in 2002-2003 alone, the large number of cases in these initial epidemic years reflected the unique conditions when WNV was first introduced into the region 27. As a result, these atypical years were excluded and we focused on endemic WNV from 2004 to the present. All disease cases were laboratory-c...
Just days after health officials urged Americans to throw out their salad kits over E. coli concerns, the Food and Drug Administration announced it's investigating three separate E. coli outbreaks linked to salad products.
Publication date: 14–20 December 2019Source: The Lancet, Volume 394, Issue 10215Author(s): Annelies Wilder-Smith, Stefan Flasche, Peter G Smith
Publication date: 14–20 December 2019Source: The Lancet, Volume 394, Issue 10215Author(s): Basu Dev Pandey, Anthony Costello
Publication date: 14–20 December 2019Source: The Lancet, Volume 394, Issue 10215Author(s): Mohammed A Mamun, Jannatul Mawa Misti, Mark D Griffiths, David Gozal
Publication date: 14–20 December 2019Source: The Lancet, Volume 394, Issue 10215Author(s): Thais Helena dos Santos, Jose L San Martin, Luis G Castellanos, Marcos A Espinal
This study aimed to compare the replicative fitness of the four dengue virus serotypes and understand the association between the serotypes, their in vitro infection ability, and their replication in target cells. We used three isolates of each DENV serotype to infect Huh-7 cells at an MOI of 0.5. The percentage of infected cells was evaluated by flow cytometry, cell viability was evaluated by MTT assay, and the pathogenicity index was calculated as a ratio of both parameters. The replicative fitness was measured by the number of viral genome copies produced using quantitative PCR and the production of infectious viral pro...
ConclusionThe present study reports a variant subgroup GII-a PEDV HM2017 strain in China and characterize its pathogenicity. PEDV strain HM2017 of subgroup GII-a presents a promising vaccine candidate for the control of PED outbreaks in China.
Publication date: Available online 13 December 2019Source: Journal of Hospital InfectionAuthor(s): Helena C. Maltezou, Xanthi Dedoukou, Elpida Pavi, Maria Thoeodoridou, Kostas AthanasakisSummaryMeasles represents an occupational risk for healthcare personnel (HCP). A total of 117 cases of measles among HCP were notified in Greece during 2017-2018. We were able to contact 46 of them. Most of those contacted had a serious clinical course with complications, necessitating hospitalization in 67% of cases. All HCP reported absenteeism, for a mean duration of 21.2 working days (range: 3-60 days); 54.3% of HCP reported being at w...
ConclusionsThis study provides initial perspectives on measles preparedness among Idaho CAHs, despite limited generalizability. Future studies should explore whether self-reported preparedness measures reflect the ability of the CAHs to control measles spread when cases present for care.
Conclusionsthe applicability of the developed methodology to predict the dynamic behaviour of deaths caused by traffic injuries in Colombia for 2010 by means of a probabilistic random walk was confirmed with a good precision, suggesting that this methodology could be useful to verify the efficacy of national road safety strategies implemented to reduce mortality rates.
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