Epidemic Potential for Local Transmission of Zika Virus in 2015 and 2016 in Queensland, Australia

Conclusions Zika is a significant global public health issue. We demonstrate that, based on an average infectious period of 5.5 days17,18, Zika virus transmission by vector mosquitoes could have occurred in Cairns, Townsville and Rockhampton during the warmer months in 2015 and 2016, with Brisbane unsuitable for transmission. However, this changes when we take a lower epidemic potential threshold, based on a longer infectious period. Except for Brisbane where the vector is not yet established, these results are consistent with the epidemic potential of dengue virus in Cairns and Townsville. While estimates are preliminary, these analyses point to the importance of further investigations of the infectious period as well as the infection and transmission rates of ZIKV and Australian mosquitoes (Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus) to allow more accurate estimates of the epidemic potential for ZIKV in Australia. The Rio de Janeiro 2016 Olympics (5–21 August 2016) and the Paralympic Games (7–18 September 2016) were the two most prominent mass gathering events to take place in the Americas since the emergence of ZIKV in this region. A large number of visitors attended these events6. An upcoming event in Brazil that also attracts tourists from Australia is the Rio de Janeiro Carnival (24-28 February 2017), a period where mosquito abundance is highest (in Brazil as well as Queensland). Our study considered only the risk posed by vector-mediated transmission and did not include ...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research