Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples
AbstractBurden of Disease studies —such as the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study—quantify health loss in disability-adjusted life-years. However, these studies stop short of quantifying the future impact of interventions that shift risk factor distributions, allowing for trends and time lags. This methodology paper explains h ow proportional multistate lifetable (PMSLT) modelling quantifies intervention impacts, using comparisons between three tobacco control case studies [eradication of tobacco, tobacco-free generation i.e. the age at which tobacco can be legally purchased is lifted by 1 year of age for eac...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 10, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Assessing the effectiveness of vehicle emission regulations on improving perinatal health: a population-based accountability study
In this study, we evaluate how infant health risks associated with maternal residences near highways during pregnancy have changed over time.MethodsWe created a population-based retrospective birth cohort with geocoded residential addresses in Texan metropolitan areas from 1996 through 2009 (n = 2 259 411). We compared term birthweight (37–42 weeks of gestation) among maternal residences
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 9, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Commentary: Mendelian randomization and education –Challenges remain
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 8, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Do children ’s expectations about future physical activity predict their physical activity in adulthood?
ConclusionsThis study offers a novel approach for analysing large qualitative datasets to assess identity and behaviours. Findings suggest that at as young as 11  years old, the way a young person conceptualizes activity as part of their identity has a lasting association with behaviour. Still, an active identity may require a supportive sociocultural context to manifest in subsequent behaviour. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 4, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Inequality of opportunities in health and death: an investigation from birth to middle age in Great Britain
ConclusionsThere is increasing inequality of opportunities in health over the lifespan in Great Britain. The tag of social background intensifies as individuals get older. Finally, there is added analytical value to combining mortality with self-assessed health when measuring health inequalities. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 4, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Do children ’s expectations about future physical activity predict their physical activity in adulthood?
ConclusionsThis study offers a novel approach for analysing large qualitative datasets to assess identity and behaviours. Findings suggest that at as young as 11  years old, the way a young person conceptualizes activity as part of their identity has a lasting association with behaviour. Still, an active identity may require a supportive sociocultural context to manifest in subsequent behaviour. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 4, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Corrigendum to: Is mode of transport to work associated with mortality in the working-age population? Repeated census-cohort studies in New Zealand, 1996, 2001 and 2006
The Table in the Supplementary data failed to identify the source of the population in question. The footnote to that table has been amended to clarify this. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Can synthetic controls improve causal inference in interrupted time series evaluations of public health interventions?
AbstractInterrupted time series designs are a valuable quasi-experimental approach for evaluating public health interventions. Interrupted time series extends a single group pre-post comparison by using multiple time points to control for underlying trends. But history bias —confounding by unexpected events occurring at the same time of the intervention—threatens the validity of this design and limits causal inference. Synthetic control methodology, a popular data-driven technique for deriving a control series from a pool of unexposed populations, is increasingly r ecommended. In this paper, we evaluate if and ...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Accumulation of childhood adversities and type 1 diabetes risk: a register-based cohort study of all children born in Denmark between 1980 and 2015
ConclusionsIn an unselected total population sample, we generally find no or negligible effects of childhood adversities on type 1 diabetes risk, which may be reassuring to persons with type 1 diabetes who are concerned that personal trauma contributed to their disease. There is a very small group of females exposed to a high degree of adversity who may have a higher risk of type 1 diabetes and this group needs further attention. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - October 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Measurement error as an explanation for the alcohol harm paradox: analysis of eight cohort studies
ConclusionsUsing alcohol biomarkers in addition to self-reported alcohol use did not explain the socio-economic differences in alcohol mortality. Differential bias in the measurement of alcohol use is not a likely explanation for the alcohol-harm paradox. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 30, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Bias factor, maximum bias and the E-value: insight and extended applications
ConclusionsThe E-value is part of newer sensitivity analyses methods for unmeasured confounding. We provide insight into its structure, underscoring its advantages and limitations, and expand its applications. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 30, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Emulating a target trial in case-control designs: an application to statins and colorectal cancer
AbstractBackgroundPrevious case-control studies have reported a strong association between statin use and lower cancer risk. It is unclear whether this association reflects a benefit of statins or is the result of design decisions that cannot be mapped to a (hypothetical) target trial (that would answer the question of interest).MethodsWe outlined the protocol of a target trial to estimate the effect of statins on colorectal cancer incidence among adults with low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol below 5  mmol/L. We then emulated the target trial using linked electronic health records of 752 469 eligible UK...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 29, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Cancer cure for 32 cancer types: results from the EUROCARE-5 study
This study aims to estimate population-based indicators of cancer cure in Europe by type, sex, age and period.Methods7.2 million cancer patients (42 population-based cancer registries in 17 European countries) diagnosed at ages 15 –74 years in 1990–2007 with follow-up to 2008 were selected from the EUROCARE-5 dataset. Mixture-cure models were used to estimate: (i) life expectancy of fatal cases (LEF); (ii) cure fraction (CF) as proportion of patients with same death rates as the general population; (iii) time to cure (TTC ) as time to reach 5-year conditional relative survival (CRS)>95%.ResultsLEF ranged fro...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 28, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Maternal life and work stressors during pregnancy and asthma in offspring
ConclusionsThis study does not support an elevated risk of childhood asthma related to exposure to stress during pregnancy. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 25, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

COVID-19 and the ‘rediscovery’ of health inequities
In the wake of the brutal police killing of George Floyd in Minneapolis on 25 May 2020, cities and counties across the USA came out to declare that racism is a ‘public health emergency’. Needless to point out, systemic racism has existed for over 400 years in America. The crisis sparked by George Floyd’s murder illustrates the point that it takes a shock to the system to bring about broader acknowledgment of the daily realities lived by a whole segme nt of the population. Indeed, ignorance of the existence of systemic racism (a.k.a. White privilege) is what enables stark inequalities to fester. Likewise, ...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 24, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Early prediction of mortality risk among patients with severe COVID-19, using machine learning
ConclusionsAge, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein level, lymphocyte count and d-dimer level of COVID-19 patients at admission are informative for the patients ’ outcomes. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 23, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Soy and isoflavone consumption and subsequent risk of prostate cancer mortality: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study
ConclusionsOur study suggested that high intake of soy and isoflavones might increase the risk of prostate cancer mortality. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 23, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

COVID-19 healthcare demand and mortality in Sweden in response to non-pharmaceutical mitigation and suppression scenarios
ConclusionThe results of this study highlight the impact of different combinations of non-pharmaceutical interventions, especially moderate physical distancing in combination with more effective isolation of infectious individuals, on reducing deaths, health demands and lowering healthcare costs. In less effective mitigation scenarios, the demand on ICU beds would rapidly exceed capacity, showing the tight interconnection between the healthcare demand and physical distancing in the society. These findings have relevance for Swedish policy and response to the COVID-19 pandemic and illustrate the importance of maintaining th...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 20, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

BCG vaccination in Bangladesh: should it be given at birth or given along with pentavalent?
Bangladesh is a tuberculosis (TB) endemic area and the TB incidence rate has remained the same for over a decade.1 Most of the exposed become infected within a year of initial exposure2 and the disease progresses fastest in neonates.3 This is why early BCG vaccination is imperative. The World Health Organization (WHO) recommends BCG vaccination at birth followed by the combined diphtheria, tetanus and whole-cell pertussis (DTP) vaccine at 6, 10 and 14  weeks (we term it Schedule A inTable  2), but in practice the Bangladesh Extended Program on Immunization (EPI) by and large provides BCG and pentavalent togethe...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 18, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Comparing mortalities of the first wave of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and of the 1918 –19 winter pandemic influenza wave in the USA
It has been argued that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality rates exceed those from the influenza pandemic in 1918 –19,1 but comparisons can be misleading unless marked differences in age-specific mortality2 and changes in population age structure in the past century3 are taken into account. The need for application of fundamental epidemiological approaches in understanding COVID-19 has also been recognized.4 (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 15, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Situational analysis of the surveillance of birth defects in the Eastern Mediterranean region
Birth defects surveillance programmessituational analysisEastern Mediterranean Region (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 10, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Long-term use of antibiotics and risk of type 2 diabetes in women: a prospective cohort study
ConclusionsA longer duration of antibiotic use in recent years was associated with increased risk of type 2 diabetes in women. Physicians should exercise caution when prescribing antibiotics, particularly for long-term use. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 7, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Role of ultra-processed food in fat mass index between 6 and 11 years of age: a cohort study
ConclusionsUltra-processed food consumption was associated with an increase in body fat from childhood to early adolescence, and this association was not just due to the effect of ultra-processed food on calorie content. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 5, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Cohort Profile: The Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC)
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 5, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and death in the first 11  122 cases with a positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark: a nationwide cohort
We examined characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and death in a nationwide cohort of all Danish individuals tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from 27 February 2020 until 19 May 2020.ResultsWe identified 11  122 SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction-positive cases of whom 80% were community-managed and 20% were hospitalized. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 5.2%. Age was strongly associated with fatal disease {odds ratio [OR] 15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 9–26] for 70–79 years, increasing t o OR 90 (95% CI: 50–162) for ≥90 years,...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 5, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Cohort Profile: The Cohorts Consortium of Latin America and the Caribbean (CC-LAC)
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 5, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and death in the first 11  122 cases with a positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 in Denmark: a nationwide cohort
We examined characteristics and predictors of hospitalization and death in a nationwide cohort of all Danish individuals tested for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from 27 February 2020 until 19 May 2020.ResultsWe identified 11  122 SARS-CoV-2 polymerase chain reaction-positive cases of whom 80% were community-managed and 20% were hospitalized. Thirty-day all-cause mortality was 5.2%. Age was strongly associated with fatal disease {odds ratio [OR] 15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 9–26] for 70–79 years, increasing t o OR 90 (95% CI: 50–162) for ≥90 years,...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 5, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Corrigendum to: Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial
First published online: 8 June 2016,Int J Epidemiol 2017; 46: 348 –55. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw098 (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Commentary: Could microchimerism play a role in ovarian carcinogenesis?
Ovarian cancer is the most fatal gynaecologic malignancy, taking the lives of close to 185  000 women in 2018 worldwide.1 Without an effective screening method and clinical symptoms only developing at late stages, a better understanding of why some women develop ovarian cancer and others do not is critical. Much of what we know about risk factors for ovarian cancer relate to hormones, yet well-established hormonal exposures account for less than half of all ovarian cancer cases.2 Factors unrelated to hormones likely play a role, and there is a need for new population-based research to uncover them. (Source: Internatio...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Cohort Profile: IAVI ’s HIV epidemiology and early infection cohort studies in Africa to support vaccine discovery
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Natural gas development, flaring practices and paediatric asthma hospitalizations in Texas
ConclusionsWe found evidence of associations between paediatric asthma hospitalizations and NGD, regardless of drilling type. Practices related to production volume may be driving these positive associations. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Corrigendum to: Interrupted time series regression for the evaluation of public health interventions: a tutorial
First published online: 8 June 2016,Int J Epidemiol 2017; 46: 348 –55. doi:https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyw098 (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 3, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Cohort Profile: Norwegian Offshore Petroleum Workers (NOPW) Cohort
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Let ’s call it the effect allele: a suggestion for GWAS naming conventions
In recent years, the amount of publicly available summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has rapidly increased. So too has the number of researchers accessing and utilizing these data. These summary data can be used in many subsequent analyses, including Mendelian randomization, genetic correlation and polygenic score analysis. It is therefore vital that we can ensure consistency across these datasets to minimize the risk of analytical mistakes due to user error. One such inconsistency is the naming of the effect allele in these datasets. This is of particular concern given the increasing availability of ...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Commentary: Continuing the E-value ’s post-publication peer review
An association is taken seriously as possibly causal and then is found to have been the spurious spawn of one or more confounders, hitherto unknown and even unsuspected. This nightmarish scenario is possible, but how often has it actually occurred? For all the fear it engenders, one might think it has been commonplace in epidemiological history. One response to it is the E-value,1 –6 a measure its developers have lobbied to become ‘standard practice’ and ‘reported routinely’ in ‘all observational studies intended to produce evidence for causality’.2 (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Let ’s call it the effect allele: a suggestion for GWAS naming conventions
In recent years, the amount of publicly available summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) has rapidly increased. So too has the number of researchers accessing and utilizing these data. These summary data can be used in many subsequent analyses, including Mendelian randomization, genetic correlation and polygenic score analysis. It is therefore vital that we can ensure consistency across these datasets to minimize the risk of analytical mistakes due to user error. One such inconsistency is the naming of the effect allele in these datasets. This is of particular concern given the increasing availability of ...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Commentary: Continuing the E-value ’s post-publication peer review
An association is taken seriously as possibly causal and then is found to have been the spurious spawn of one or more confounders, hitherto unknown and even unsuspected. This nightmarish scenario is possible, but how often has it actually occurred? For all the fear it engenders, one might think it has been commonplace in epidemiological history. One response to it is the E-value,1 –6 a measure its developers have lobbied to become ‘standard practice’ and ‘reported routinely’ in ‘all observational studies intended to produce evidence for causality’.2 (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Commentary: Health insurance and children ’s survival after cancer diagnosis: mediation or confounding?
Improvements in diagnosis and treatment of paediatric cancer have achieved dramatic increases in expected survival.1 However, such medical advances risk exacerbating health inequalities along lines of class or socio-economic status (SES).2 Arguably, patients of high SES benefit from earlier diagnosis and earlier or more definitive treatment, resulting in improved clinical outcomes.2 Using health insurance type (private insurance compared with need-based public Medicaid insurance) as the measure of SES, Wanget al. demonstrate this disparity when considering 5-year all-cause mortality among children and adolescents diagnosed...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - September 2, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Data Resource Profile: China Cohort Consortium (CCC)
(Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - August 30, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Estimated and projected burden of multiple sclerosis attributable to smoking and childhood and adolescent high body-mass index: a comparative risk assessment
ConclusionsAssuming causality, there is the potential to substantially reduce MS incidence with the elimination of lifestyle-related modifiable risk factors, which are the target of global public health prevention strategies. (Source: International Journal of Epidemiology)
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - August 26, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research

Effect of childhood rotavirus vaccination on community rotavirus prevalence in rural Ecuador, 2008-13
In this study, we estimate the impact of childhood Rotarix® vaccination on community rotavirus prevalence.MethodsWe analyse 10 years of serial population-based diarrhoea case-control study, which also included testing for rotavirus infection (n = 3430), and 29 months of all-cause diarrhoea active surveillance from a child cohort (n = 376) from rural Ecuador during a period in which Rotarix vaccination was introduced. We use weighted logistic regression from the case-control data to assess changes in community rotavirus prevalence (both symptomatic and asymptomatic) and all-cause diarr...
Source: International Journal of Epidemiology - August 26, 2020 Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research