IJERPH, Vol. 17, Pages 6525: A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe

IJERPH, Vol. 17, Pages 6525: A Universal Physics-Based Model Describing COVID-19 Dynamics in Europe International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health doi: 10.3390/ijerph17186525 Authors: Yiannis Contoyiannis Stavros G. Stavrinides Michael P. Hanias Myron Kampitakis Pericles Papadopoulos Rodrigo Picos Stelios M. Potirakis The self-organizing mechanism is a universal approach that is widely followed in nature. In this work, a novel self-organizing model describing diffusion over a lattice is introduced. Simulation results for the model’s active lattice sites demonstrate an evolution curve that is very close to those describing the evolution of infected European populations by COVID-19. The model was further examined against real data regarding the COVID-19 epidemic for seven European countries (with a total population of 290 million) during the periods in which social distancing measures were imposed, namely Italy and Spain, which had an enormous spread of the disease; the successful case of Greece; and four central European countries: France, Belgium, Germany and the Netherlands. The value of the proposed model lies in its simplicity and in the fact that it is based on a universal natural mechanism, which through the presentation of an equivalent dynamical system apparently documents and provides a better understanding of the dynamical process behind viral epidemic spreads in general—even pandemics, such as in the...
Source: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - Category: Environmental Health Authors: Tags: Article Source Type: research