Elevation determines the spatial risk of Anthrax outbreaks in Karnataka, India

In this study, village level anthrax outbreak locations from Karnataka (1997-2016) were geo-referenced and predictive risk map was developed using temporally Fourier Processed remotely sensed variables. A non-linear discriminant analysis approach was used to develop the risk map for Karnataka. Elevation was identified as top predictor variable in the 10 variables selected. The predicted risk map showed good accuracy and validation statistics when evaluated using different metrics (Kappa, sensitivity, specificity, AUC). The predicted risk map also showed good correspondence with past outbreaks. Further, we used Bayesian Penalised spline method to estimate species response curves for top 10 variables selected. The validated risk map can be used in planning vaccination strategy and surveillance in high-risk areas.PMID:36773849 | DOI:10.1016/j.actatropica.2023.106848

Source: Acta Tropica - February 11, 2023 Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Mohammed Mudassar Chanda Awadhesh Prajapati Revanaiah Yogisharadhya Umesh L Manjunath S Palegar Divakar Hemadri B R Shome Sathish Bhadravati Shivachandra Source Type: research