COVID-19 transmission risk factors

Pathog Glob Health. 2021 Dec 28:1-32. doi: 10.1080/20477724.2021.1993676. Online ahead of print.ABSTRACTWe analyze risk factors correlated with the initial transmission growth rate of the recent COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. The number of cases follows in its early stages an almost exponential expansion; we chose as a starting point in each country the first day di with 30 cases and we fitted for 12 days, capturing thus the early exponential growth. We looked then for linear correlations of the exponents α with other variables, for a sample of 126 countries. We find a positive correlation, i.e. faster spread of COVID-19, with high confidence level with the following variables, with respective p-value: low Temperature (4⋅10-7), high ratio of old vs. working-age people (3⋅10-6), life expectancy (8⋅10-6), number of international tourists (1⋅10-5), earlier epidemic starting date di (2⋅10-5), high level of physical contact in greeting habits (6⋅10-5), lung cancer prevalence (6⋅10-5), obesity in males (1⋅10-4), share of population in urban areas (2⋅10-4), cancer prevalence (3⋅10-4), alcohol consumption (0.0019), daily smoking prevalence (0.0036), and UV index (0.004, 73 countries). We also find a correlation with low Vitamin D serum levels (0.002-0.006), but on a smaller sample, ∼50 countries, to be confirmed on a larger sample. There is highly significant correlation also with blood types: positive correlation with types RH- (3⋅10-5) and A+ (3...
Source: Pathogens and Global Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Source Type: research