Modeling the 2014 Ebola Virus Epidemic – Agent-Based Simulations, Temporal Analysis and Future Predictions for Liberia and Sierra Leone

DISCUSSION To approximate the dynamics of the current EVD epidemic in Liberia and Sierra Leone from an early date (May 27) to December 21, 2014, we propose the use of an agent-based model. The dynamics of the model evolve on a small-world network,16 the size of which matches the demographics of each country, while its density is adjustable to account for the impact of interventions. By exploiting the Equation-Free framework for multi-scale analysis,15 we estimated the evolution of the structure and the density of the EBOV transmission network that best fitted the data reported by WHO for the cumulative number of infected cases and deaths. Estimates for the major epidemiological parameters of the model were also derived using a sliding window of 10 weeks with an equal sliding step. Using this information, we also performed a projection in time and provide an estimate for the potential cumulative number of cases until early March 2015. The originality of our study stems from the fact that our model and analysis take into account the heterogeneity in the interactions of the agents within the network. This unique property is reflected on the plasticity of the resulting transmission network as well as on the variability of the network density, which changes over time in response to public health intervention policies and the behavioral responses of individuals as the epidemic evolves. The methodological approach succeeded in approximating the reported data of cumulative numbers of...
Source: PLOS Currents Outbreaks - Category: Epidemiology Authors: Source Type: research