The Mexican Economy: A Short or Long Recession Cycle?

By Saul Escobar ToledoMEXICO CITY, Mar 8 2021 (IPS) The trend of the Mexican economy during the last two years has not been positive. INEGI, the official bureau of statistics, has just reported that GDP registered a fall of 8.5 percent compared to 2019 with seasonally adjusted figures. But in 2019 GDP also receded, although in far less measure, less than one percentage point. However, it must be considered that the Mexican economy has been falling for 6 quarters (compared to the previous year). Considering the population growth rate (1.2 percent per year), the fall in the GDP per capita is close to 11 percent. This figure matters because it gives a more accurate idea of the size of the downturn. It is also necessary to take into account the two years, since our interest should be now to try to figure out how long the recession will be the endure, that is, when will Mexico reach the pre-pandemic level of GDP. Saul Escobar ToledoThe length of the cycle will depend on several factors: the prolongation of the pandemic; the behavior of the world economy; and internal factors. In the first case, uncertainty still prevails: vaccination campaigns are already underway, but they advance at very uneven rates in different countries (and regions of Mexico). This is because the patents, manufacture and provision of reliable vaccines are highly concentrated in a few companies. There are countries that do not yet have a single dose. And, as international health organizations have affirmed, ...
Source: IPS Inter Press Service - Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Development & Aid Economy & Trade Financial Crisis Headlines Health Humanitarian Emergencies Labour Latin America & the Caribbean TerraViva United Nations Source Type: news