Did Mitigation Save Two Million Lives?

Alan ReynoldsIn the April 16 White House briefing, President Trump again said, as he often has before, that “models predicted between 1.5 and 2.2 million deaths” if we had not endured the various economic shutdowns imposed by the Governors of 42 States. The severity and breadth of those statewide shutdowns was initially encouraged, and is now justified, by just one dramatic statistic. That number was the 2.2 million U.S. deaths supposedly at risk from COVID-19.The famed 2.2 million estimate first reached viral status in the March 31 White House briefing by Doctors Anthony Fauci and Deborah Birx. They displayed a  graph with two bell‐​shaped epidemic curves placed on top of each other. Both curves estimate deaths per day which rise to a peak and then fall.The steeper of the two curves was painted black and marked “Pandemic Outbreak: No Interventions.” It showed an estimated total of 1.5 to 2.2 million deaths from COVID-19 in what appears to be a relatively short period. The White House graph showed no dates, but the source of that now‐​famous 2.2 million estimate (as explained later) predicted U.S. deaths would keep rising until June 20.The second “flattened” curve rises more slowly but also peaks later (in, say, August) with a more prolonged period of deaths than the steep curve (where more deaths happen more quickly). The flatter curve is labeled “With Interventions” and also100,000 to 240,000 deaths. Contrary to the delayed timing shown in the l...
Source: Cato-at-liberty - Category: American Health Authors: Source Type: blogs