Risk assessment of the global crop loss in ENSO events

Publication date: Available online 7 February 2020Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/CAuthor(s): Yonglan Qian, Junfang Zhao, Shuicao Zheng, Yun Cao, Lei XueAbstractThe uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the world, owing to the greater vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the global crop lost. Therefore, accurate risk assessment of the global staple crop lost in ENSO events is indispensable to ensure global food security under climate change. In the study, the risk of crop loss is assessed at a global scale considering three factors: the crop yield reduction rate, its coefficient of variation (CV), and the crop reduction probability, based on which a crop loss risk index (RI) was developed and calculated. The results suggest wheat in Canada, Brazil, eastern Europe, Morocco, South Africa, and Australia, and corn in central and southern African countries are at high risk of production loss with a RI > 1.70 in both El Niño and La Niña events. Rice in the USA, Egypt, and southeast Asia is at low risk of ENSO events with a RI < 0.70. Wheat in Argentina, India, Poland, and Egypt, and corn and soybean in Brazil and China are at high to medium risk in El Niño but at low risk in La Niña events. Wheat in western European countries (France and Germany) and Ethiopia, and corn and soybean in the USA are at low risk in El Niño, ...
Source: Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts ABC - Category: Science Source Type: research