New Government Estimates Offer Early Hope That Drug Overdose Deaths Are Waning

After years of sharp increases in fatal drug overdoses in the U.S., provisional federal data provide reason for cautious optimism. The drug overdose death rate dropped slightly between 2017 and 2018, according to the new estimates, after two decades of near-constant upticks. Between 1999 and 2017 the age-adjusted overdose mortality rate increased from 6.1 to 21.7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to federal data. According to data released June 11 by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS), that number dropped to an estimated 20.8 deaths per 100,000 for the 12 months ending in the second quarter of 2018. That figure isn’t final, and it shows only a modest downturn in drug deaths, but it’s still an encouraging sign after decades of snowballing substance use. “It’s a good hint of what’s coming,” says Jane Maxwell, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin’s Addiction Research Institute. “You won’t get the final rate for several years, but it’s a wonderful tool because it shows you something seems to be happening.” NCHS estimates first showed signs of a decline in overdose deaths last year. And back in 2014, researchers from Columbia University’s Mailman School of Public Health predicted that drug overdose deaths would peak in 2017, then decline progressively until they hit pre-epidemic levels seen in the 1980s around 2034. One of those ...
Source: TIME: Health - Category: Consumer Health News Authors: Tags: Uncategorized data visualization public health Source Type: news