What I Got Wrong (and Right) about COVID19
In May, I wrote a column about COVID19 that got some attention.
My reason for writing was the change in messaging about the strategy of flatten-the-curve. We were first told to flatten-the-curve to prevent overwhelming hospitals. But then the thinking changed to flatten-the-curve to save lives.
I made eight assertions about COVID19. Let’s see how I did.
Assertion 1: The virus will not be contained. Verdict: Correct.
You might argue that New Zealand and Australia contained the virus, but I would counter that these are not fair comparisons to the US, Canada, and the EU.
Assertion 2: Tests will underperform. Verdict: Correct.
The US–which is in the midst of its third spike–is n the top-tier of countries for numbers of tests per million people. Test-and-trace is pure folly. I would not be surprised if some people are actually avoiding being tested–so as to keep working.
Assertion 3: Hospitals are in little danger of being overwhelmed. Verdict: Mostly correct.
There are now places under pressure, some are feeling serious pressure, but we have not nor will we see a Northern-Italy-like situation in the US.
Assertion 4: Americans are not stupid; we will socially distance and take common-sense measures. Verdict: Debatable.
While I stand by my early opinion, I understand those who would point to the third spike and holiday travel as evidence I was wrong.
A brief comment on the current situation. A colle...
Source: Dr John M - Category: Cardiology Authors: Dr John Source Type: blogs
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