Effect of expanding opioid agonist therapies on the HIV epidemic and mortality in Ukraine: a modelling study

Publication date: Available online 23 December 2019Source: The Lancet HIVAuthor(s): Jiale Tan, Frederick L Altice, Lynn M Madden, Alexei ZelenevSummaryBackgroundAs HIV incidence and mortality continue to increase in eastern Europe and central Asia, particularly among people who inject drugs (PWID), it is crucial to effectively scale-up opioid agonist therapy (OAT), such as methadone or buprenorphine maintenance therapy, to optimise HIV outcomes. With low OAT coverage among PWID, we did an optimisation assessment using current OAT procurement and allocation, then modelled the effect of increased OAT scale-up on HIV incidence and mortality for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine.MethodsWe developed a linear optimisation model to estimate efficiency gains that could be achieved based on current procurement of OAT. We also developed a dynamic, compartmental population model of HIV transmission that included both injection and sexual risk to estimate the effect of OAT scale-up on HIV infections and mortality over a 10-year horizon. The compartmental population model was calibrated to HIV prevalence and incidence among PWID for 23 administrative regions of Ukraine. Sources for regional data included the SyrEx database, the Integrated Biological and Behavioral Survey, the Ukrainian Center for Socially Dangerous Disease Control of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, the Public Health Center of the Ministry of Health of Ukraine, and the Ukrainian Census.FindingsUnder a status-quo scen...
Source: The Lancet HIV - Category: Infectious Diseases Source Type: research