Development of a risk score for colorectal cancer in Chinese males: A prospective cohort study

In a cohort study, the authors developed a simple scoring system for colorectal cancer that identifies men at a relatively increased risk of colorectal cancer within 10  years on the basis of several well‐established risk factors (age, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, occupational sitting time and history of diabetes). Those in the highest risk group (16‐19 points) had a 33.12‐fold higher risk of colorectal cancer than subjects in the lowest risk gr oup. AbstractTo build a simple predictive model as a guide to stratify average ‐risk population for colonoscopy examinations. We collected data from 92 923 males without a prior history of cancer enrolled in the Kailuan Cohort Study of China. Risk factors included in the evaluation of colorectal cancer (CRC) were collected by questionnaire‐based interviews at the baseline . Logistic regression coefficients for incident CRC predictors were converted into risk scores by the absolute value of the smallest coefficient in the model and rounding up to the nearest integer. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis with the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation method was applied to evaluate model performance. In the 10‐year follow‐up, 353 CRC patients were in the cohort. Age, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, occupational sitting time, and history of diabetes were selected for the scoring system, and the adjusted area under the ROC was 0.66. Populati on in the highest risk group (16‐19 points) had...
Source: Cancer Medicine - Category: Cancer & Oncology Authors: Tags: ORIGINAL RESEARCH Source Type: research