Risk assessment of dengue autochthonous infections in Tokyo in summer, especially in the period of the 2020 Olympic Games.

This study is aiming at analyzing a risk of autochthonous dengue infections in Tokyo in summer and also an additional risk in the Olympiad by using a mathematical model. We developed a stochastic transmission model with the cooperation of seasonal factors which influence much on the transmission cycle of dengue virus, and carried out stochastic simulations for each of the scenarios provided adequately. We found that (1) the incidence of dengue autochthonous infections is predicted to be small number cases; (2) the local climate makes a great influence on a scale of dengue autochthonous infections; (3) the incidence reaches a peak in August and early September; and (4) there is a bare possibility of development into dengue outbreak. In the Olympiad held in summer of 2020, an additional risk of dengue autochthonous infections will amount to about the double of risk in normal years. PMID: 31366859 [PubMed - as supplied by publisher]
Source: Japanese Journal of Infectious Diseases - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: Jpn J Infect Dis Source Type: research

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