Estimating the health and economic effects of the proposed US Food and Drug Administration voluntary sodium reformulation: Microsimulation cost-effectiveness analysis

by Jonathan Pearson-Stuttard, Chris Kypridemos, Brendan Collins, Dariush Mozaffarian, Yue Huang, Piotr Bandosz, Simon Capewell, Laurie Whitsel, Parke Wilde, Martin O ’Flaherty, Renata Micha BackgroundSodium consumption is a modifiable risk factor for higher blood pressure (BP) and cardiovascular disease (CVD). The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has proposed voluntary sodium reduction goals targeting processed and commercially prepared foods. We aimed to quantify the potential health and economic impact of this policy. Methods and findingsWe used a microsimulation approach of a close-to-reality synthetic population (US IMPACT Food Policy Model) to estimate CVD deaths and cases prevented or postponed, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and cost-effectiveness from 2017 to 2036 of 3 scenarios: (1) optimal, 100% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; (2) modest, 50% compliance with 10-year reformulation targets; and (3) pessimistic, 100% compliance with 2-year reformulation targets, but with no further progress. We used the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and high-quality meta-analyses to inform model inputs. Costs included government costs to administer and monitor the policy, industry reformulation costs, and CVD-related healthcare, productivity, and informal care costs. Between 2017 and 2036, the optimal reformulation scenario achieving the FDA sodium reduction targets could prevent approximately 450,000 CVD cases (95% uncertainty interval: 2...
Source: PLoS Medicine - Category: Internal Medicine Authors: Source Type: research