Estimates of global seasonal influenza-associated respiratory mortality: a modelling study

Publication date: Available online 14 December 2017 Source:The Lancet Author(s): A Danielle Iuliano, Katherine M Roguski, Howard H Chang, David J Muscatello, Rakhee Palekar, Stefano Tempia, Cheryl Cohen, Jon Michael Gran, Dena Schanzer, Benjamin J Cowling, Peng Wu, Jan Kyncl, Li Wei Ang, Minah Park, Monika Redlberger-Fritz, Hongjie Yu, Laura Espenhain, Anand Krishnan, Gideon Emukule, Liselotte van Asten, Susana Pereira da Silva, Suchunya Aungkulanon, Udo Buchholz, Marc-Alain Widdowson, Joseph S Bresee Background Estimates of influenza-associated mortality are important for national and international decision making on public health priorities. Previous estimates of 250 000–500 000 annual influenza deaths are outdated. We updated the estimated number of global annual influenza-associated respiratory deaths using country-specific influenza-associated excess respiratory mortality estimates from 1999–2015. Methods We estimated country-specific influenza-associated respiratory excess mortality rates (EMR) for 33 countries using time series log-linear regression models with vital death records and influenza surveillance data. To extrapolate estimates to countries without data, we divided countries into three analytic divisions for three age groups (<65 years, 65–74 years, and ≥75 years) using WHO Global Health Estimate (GHE) respiratory infection mortality rates. We calculated mortality rate ratios (MRR) to account for differences in r...
Source: The Lancet - Category: General Medicine Source Type: research