IJERPH, Vol. 14, Pages 1518: Exploring Determinants of Spatial Variations in the Dengue Fever Epidemic Using Geographically Weighted Regression Model: A Case Study in the Joint Guangzhou-Foshan Area, China, 2014

In this study, the neighboring Guangzhou and Foshan (GF) cities were considered as a joint area for characterizing the spatial variations in the 2014 DF epidemic at various grid levels from 1 × 1 km2 to 6 × 6 km2. On an appropriate scale, geographically weighted regression (GWR) models were employed to interpret the influences of socioeconomic and environmental factors on this epidemic across the GF area. DF transmissions in Guangzhou and Foshan cities presented synchronous temporal changes and spatial expansions during the main epidemic months. Across the GF area, this epidemic was obviously spatially featured at various grid levels, especially on the 2 × 2 km2 scale. Its spatial variations were relatively sufficiently explained by population size, road density, and economic status integrated in the GWR model with the lowest Akaike Information Criterion (AICc = 5227.97) and highest adjusted R square (0.732) values. These results indicated that these three socioeconomic factors acted as geographical determinants of spatial variability of the 2014 DF epidemic across the joint GF area, although some other potential factors should be added to improve the explaining the spatial variations in the central zones. This work improves our understanding of the effects of socioeconomic conditions on the spatial variations in this epidemic and helps local hygienic authorities to make targeted joint interventions for preventing and controlling this epidemic across the GF ...
Source: International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health - Category: Environmental Health Authors: Tags: Article Source Type: research

Related Links:

ConclusionWe present a modelling approach to infer the risk of dengue outbreaks given the cumulative effect of climate variations in the months leading up to an outbreak. By combining the dengue prediction model with climate indicators, which are routinely monitored and forecasted by the Regional Climate Centre (RCC) at the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (CIMH), probabilistic dengue outlooks could be included in the Caribbean Health-Climatic Bulletin, issued on a quarterly basis to provide climate-smart decision-making guidance for Caribbean health practitioners. This flexible modelling approach could be...
Source: PLoS Medicine - Category: Internal Medicine Authors: Source Type: research
In conclusion, our analysis provides crucial insights, which can be applied to improve nations' surveillance and preparedness for future vector-borne disease epidemics.
Source: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 15 March 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Marco Tulio Angulo, Jorge X. Velasco-HernandezAbstractWe will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
ConclusionActively searching for the potential epidemic causing mutations and reporting of novel mutations may help in better understanding and probably forecasting of future CHIKV outbreaks and its nature.
Source: Medical Journal Armed Forces India - Category: General Medicine Source Type: research
Abstract Flaviviruses such as Zika, dengue, and yellow fever cause epidemics throughout the tropics and account for substantial global morbidity and mortality. Although malaria and other vector-borne diseases have long been appreciated in Africa, flavivirus epidemiology is incompletely understood. Despite the existence of an effective vaccine, yellow fever continues to cause outbreaks and deaths, including at least 42 fatalities in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) in 2016. Here, we leveraged biospecimens collected as part of the nationally representative 2013-2014 Demographic and Health Survey in the DRC...
Source: Am J Trop Med Hyg - Category: Infectious Diseases Authors: Tags: Am J Trop Med Hyg Source Type: research
Publication date: 14 September 2018Source: Journal of Theoretical Biology, Volume 453Author(s): Edwin Barrios, Sunmi Lee, Olga VasilievaAbstractThere are many infectious diseases that can be spread by daily commuting of people and dengue fever is one of them. The absence of vaccine and irregularities in ongoing vector control programs make this disease the most frequent and persistent in many tropical and subtropical regions of the world. This paper targets to access the effects of daily commuting on dengue transmission dynamics by using a deterministic two-patch model fitted to observed data gathered in Cali, Colombia whe...
Source: Journal of Theoretical Biology - Category: Biology Source Type: research
In conclusion, our analysis provides crucial insights, which can be applied to improve nations' surveillance and preparedness for future vector-borne disease epidemics.
Source: Spatial and Spatio-temporal Epidemiology - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
Publication date: Available online 15 March 2018Source: EpidemicsAuthor(s): Marco Tulio Angulo, Jorge X. Velasco-HernandezAbstractWe will inevitably face new epidemics where the lack of long time-series data and the uncertainty about the outbreak dynamics make difficult to obtain quantitative predictions. Here we present an algorithm to qualitatively infer time-varying contact rates from short time-series data, letting us predict the start, relative magnitude and decline of epidemic outbreaks. Using real time-series data of measles, dengue, and the current zika outbreak, we demonstrate our algorithm can outperform existing...
Source: Epidemics - Category: Epidemiology Source Type: research
ConclusionActively searching for the potential epidemic causing mutations and reporting of novel mutations may help in better understanding and probably forecasting of future CHIKV outbreaks and its nature.
Source: Medical Journal Armed Forces India - Category: General Medicine Source Type: research
DAVID E. BLOOM is the Clarence James Gamble Professor of Economics and Demography, DANIEL CADARETTE is a research assistant, and JP SEVILLA is a research associate, all at Harvard University’s T.H. Chan School of Public Health.By David E. Bloom, Daniel Cadarette and JP SevillaWASHINGTON DC, Jul 3 2018 (IPS)Infectious diseases and associated mortality have abated, but they remain a significant threat throughout the world.We continue to fight both old pathogens, such as the plague, that have troubled humanity for millennia and new pathogens, such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), that have mutated or spilled over ...
Source: IPS Inter Press Service - Health - Category: International Medicine & Public Health Authors: Tags: Active Citizens Development & Aid Economy & Trade Global Headlines Health TerraViva United Nations Source Type: news
More News: China Health | Dengue Fever | Environmental Health | Epidemics | Epidemiology | International Medicine & Public Health | Outbreaks | Study