Modeling and predicting individual variation in COVID-19 vaccine-elicited antibody response in the general population

PLOS Digit Health. 2024 May 3;3(5):e0000497. doi: 10.1371/journal.pdig.0000497. eCollection 2024 May.ABSTRACTAs we learned during the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccines are one of the most important tools in infectious disease control. To date, an unprecedentedly large volume of high-quality data on COVID-19 vaccinations have been accumulated. For preparedness in future pandemics beyond COVID-19, these valuable datasets should be analyzed to best shape an effective vaccination strategy. We are collecting longitudinal data from a community-based cohort in Fukushima, Japan, that consists of 2,407 individuals who underwent serum sampling two or three times after a two-dose vaccination with either BNT162b2 or mRNA-1273. Using the individually reconstructed time courses of the vaccine-elicited antibody response based on mathematical modeling, we first identified basic demographic and health information that contributed to the main features of the antibody dynamics, i.e., the peak, the duration, and the area under the curve. We showed that these three features of antibody dynamics were partially explained by underlying medical conditions, adverse reactions to vaccinations, and medications, consistent with the findings of previous studies. We then applied to these factors a recently proposed computational method to optimally fit an "antibody score", which resulted in an integer-based score that can be used as a basis for identifying individuals with higher or lower antibody titers from bas...
Source: Cancer Control - Category: Cancer & Oncology Authors: Source Type: research